Red Sox Sign Masataka Yoshida

[jad]

Oh right. dWAR again. Essentially the quantification of the eye-test.

[notin]

Yoshida has a .8 WAR so far. Don't get too excited just yet.

 

And Schwarber has -0.2 fWAR.

 

Bogaerts has 1.9, but comparing the WAR of a shortstop and a left fielder is not really equal…

[Bellhorn04]

And Schwarber has -0.2 fWAR.

 

Bogaerts has 1.9, but comparing the WAR of a shortstop and a left fielder is not really equal…

 

Why's that?

[notin]

Why's that?

 

WAR measures accomplishment, not ability.

 

Which player will have a greater defensive accomplishment - the one with 45 chances or the one with 159?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

WAR measures accomplishment, not ability.

 

Which player will have a greater defensive accomplishment - the one with 45 chances or the one with 159?

 

Depends on what defines accomplishment: Franchy catching 10 cans of corn, or jogging Jackie reeling one in over his shoulder in the gap...

[notin]

But you only generate positive values if you perform better than average at your position, I believe. One guy can have 10 times as many chances, but a negative RAR while the other has a positive RAR because he fielded better.

 

Probably happens all the time. But you also have different defensive baselines for each positions. So the negative RAR in your case is relative to a different set of players than the positive one. There is some positional adjustment for this reason.

[Bellhorn04]

WAR measures accomplishment, not ability.

 

Which player will have a greater defensive accomplishment - the one with 45 chances or the one with 159?

 

The one with 45 chances could have the higher RAR, if he makes better than average plays while the one with 159 chances makes worse than average plays.

 

The only thing quantity guarantees is more opportunities to generate positive scores.

[Bellhorn04]

Probably happens all the time. But you also have different defensive baselines for each positions. So the negative RAR in your case is relative to a different set of players than the positive one. There is some positional adjustment for this reason.

 

I re-did my post completely LOL

[notin]

Depends on what defines accomplishment: Franchy catching 10 cans of corn, or jogging Jackie reeling one in over his shoulder in the gap...

 

Not at all. One great play doesn’t make up for 10 routine ones in any defensive metric. That’s why I said it’s not a measure of ability…

[notin]

The one with 45 chances could have the higher RAR, if he makes better than average plays while the one with 159 chances makes worse than average plays.

 

The only thing quantity guarantees is more opportunities to generate positive scores.

 

Exactly my point. And I would want my shortstop to have a bigger impact on my defense…

[notin]

Depends on what defines accomplishment: Franchy catching 10 cans of corn, or jogging Jackie reeling one in over his shoulder in the gap...

 

Is a player with 10 infield singles in 10 plate appearances a better hitter or a worse hitter than a player who is 1 for 10 but with a home run?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not at all. One great play doesn’t make up for 10 routine ones in any defensive metric. That’s why I said it’s not a measure of ability…

 

Quantity over quality wasn't what I meant, so I should have just posed the label "accomplishment" as a question: what defines it? Making a routine defensive play can help win a game, and definitely contributes to ending an inning -- which in the least helps a pitcher's pitch count, and at best maybe saves a run/s. But is it the same as Benintendi's diving catch with the bases-loaded that quite possibly saved the 2018 postseason and led to a ring?

[notin]

Quantity over quality wasn't what I meant, so I should have just posed the label "accomplishment" as a question: what defines it? Making a routine defensive play can help win a game, and definitely contributes to ending an inning -- which in the least helps a pitcher's pitch count, and at best maybe saves a run/s. But is it the same as Benintendi's diving catch with the bases-loaded that quite possibly saved the 2018 postseason and led to a ring?

 

 

They use the UZR system to determine degree of difficulty. As for specific game circumstances, not sure. Should they? I mean, Benintendi made probably the most important play by a Sox left fielder in franchise history. Does that make him a better defensive player than Yaz?

[moonslav59]

Making a lot of routine plays does add value, and that's why DH's can never have a very high WAR.

 

Here are the O numbers for fWAR:

9.8 Verdugo

5.6 Bogey

5.1 Yoshida

4.5 Devers

 

Here are the D numbers:

6.8 Bogey (despite just a +0.5 UXR/150 and a rare +2 DRS)

0.1 Verdugo (despite blowing Bogey away on UZR/150 at 7.9 & 5 DRS)

0.1 Devers (has a much higher UZR/150 than Bogey +4.7, but plays 3B not SS) 0 DRS

-5.3 Yoshida (-3 DRS and -9.6 UZR/150 w the "Fenway Affect.)

 

As you can see, Verdugo has been a much better defender than Bogey, this year, but because Bogey makes more plays, he is given a lot more value for his D. I mentioned Dugo not Yoshida just to make the point clearer. Yoshida's D has hurt his WAR more than had he just DH'd all year.

 

2023 League Numbers:

PO/Assists

1766/3370 SS (5,100+)

903/2535 3B (3,400+

2860/98 RF (2,900+)

2400/56 LF (2,400+)

 

LF has had less than half the total plays as SS.

 

It's like saying a guy with 40 HRs in 600 PAs has more power than one with 30 in 300 PAs.

Edited May 21, 2023 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Making a lot of routine plays does add value, and that's why DH's can never have a very high WAR.

 

Here are the O numbers for fWAR:

9.8 Verdugo

5.6 Bogey

5.1 Yoshida

4.5 Devers

 

Here are the D numbers:

6.8 Bogey (despite just a +0.5 UXR/150 and a rare +2 DRS)

0.1 Verdugo (despite blowing Bogey away on UZR/150 at 7.9 & 5 DRS)

0.1 Devers (has a much higher UZR/150 than Bogey +4.7, but plays 3B not SS) 0 DRS

-5.3 Yoshida (-3 DRS and -9.6 UZR/150 w the "Fenway Affect.)

 

As you can see, Verdugo has been a much better defender than Bogey, this year, but because Bogey makes more plays, he is given a lot more value for his D. I mentioned Dugo not Yoshida just to make the point clearer. Yoshida's D has hurt his WAR more than had he just DH'd all year.

 

2023 League Numbers:

PO/Assists

1766/3370 SS (5,100+)

903/2535 3B (3,400+

2860/98 RF (2,900+)

2400/56 LF (2,400+)

 

LF has had less than half the total plays as SS.

 

It's like saying a guy with 40 HRs in 600 PAs has more power than one with 30 in 300 PAs.

 

I love the concept of WAR, an attempt to assess the whole player. And I love defense because great plays are the poetry of baseball. But hitting and pitching are the prose and the center of baseball.

 

The truth about Red Sox baseball is that hitting has always been the most essential ingredient for winning. Then comes pitching. And defense is a distant 3d.

 

As an example, I think JDM was a huge addition to the roster in 2018 because he simply made the entire lineup better--they realized their potential and had the best Sox season ever. And JDM pretty much sucked at defense when he wasn't the DH.

 

Here are some DWAR's from the 2018 Sox--probably the greatest Sox team ever--Nunez (-1.5); JDM (-1.4); Bogey (-1.0); Devers (-0.9); Benintendi (-0.6); Moreland (-0.5); Pearce (-0.4); Holt (-0.1). What's that Bill Murray chant? "It just doesn't matter; it just doesn't matter; it just doesn't matter."

 

So I frankly don't care what Yoshida's DWAR is. If he hits, he contributes plenty.

[moonslav59]

I love the concept of WAR, an attempt to assess the whole player. And I love defense because great plays are the poetry of baseball. But hitting and pitching are the prose and the center of baseball.

 

The truth about Red Sox baseball is that hitting has always been the most essential ingredient for winning. Then comes pitching. And defense is a distant 3d.

 

As an example, I think JDM was a huge addition to the roster in 2018 because he simply made the entire lineup better--they realized their potential and had the best Sox season ever. And JDM pretty much sucked at defense when he wasn't the DH.

 

Here are some DWAR's from the 2018 Sox--probably the greatest Sox team ever--Nunez (-1.5); JDM (-1.4); Bogey (-1.0); Devers (-0.9); Benintendi (-0.6); Moreland (-0.5); Pearce (-0.4); Holt (-0.1). What's that Bill Murray chant? "It just doesn't matter; it just doesn't matter; it just doesn't matter."

 

So I frankly don't care what Yoshida's DWAR is. If he hits, he contributes plenty.

 

I don't worry about LF defense in Fenway. I do a little more on the road, but when the SS position makes twice the plays as most other positions, it helps to have a capable defender there.

 

That was one reason I was not for paying top SS dollars to Bogey, who was likely better at 2B or LF. That's not to say he wasn't or won't be a net plus, but his "plus" on D comes more from quantity over quality. Other SSs use the quantity of play and their superior quality to rightfully pad their WAR numbers.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com reports...

 

Masataka Yoshida living up to agent's billing

WWW.MLB.COM

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This story was excerpted from Ian Browne’s Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

 

"...given the many skeptical teams there were on the market that didn’t agree with the agent’s valuation of the left fielder from Japan.

 

“There were about three other teams besides the Red Sox that did [agree],” Boras said. “But we felt Fenway was an ideal place for him and it worked out great.”

[Hugh2]

Bloom overpaid. The media man said so so I have to believe it.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom overpaid. The media man said so so I have to believe it.

 

The jury is still out, really, but he has shown he belongs in MLB.

[Dipre]

I agreed with the Sox' valuation of Yoshida from the get go because of his combination of plate discipline and penchant for hard contact. Those two things translate to any and all leagues.

[Randy Red Sox]

i hardly think the jury is still out at this point. Yoshida obviously belongs in MLB

[Bellhorn04]

i hardly think the jury is still out at this point. Yoshida obviously belongs in MLB

 

He's hitting well, no question. The only issue is that he's a high-priced DH. Personally I don't mind having a high-priced DH who can really rake, so I'm good with it.

[Old Red]

He's hitting well, no question. The only issue is that he's a high-priced DH. Personally I don't mind having a high-priced DH who can really rake, so I'm good with it.

 

He’s actually done alright in the OF so far.

[Jasonbay44]

He’s actually done alright in the OF so far.

 

He really hasn’t. He’s pretty bad in the field

[mvp 78]

He's hitting well, no question. The only issue is that he's a high-priced DH. Personally I don't mind having a high-priced DH who can really rake, so I'm good with it.

 

Lies. Did you not see the Andrew Benintendi play he made last night?

[mvp 78]

He really hasn’t. He’s pretty bad in the field

 

He's got Derek Jeter at SS range. Statuesque.

[Dipre]

He's got Derek Jeter at SS range. Statuesque.

 

But unlike Jeter, he also has a noodle arm. Almost all of his value is offensive.

[moonslav59]

The sample size is too small to think the defensive metrics are definitive, but the eye test shows me that Yoshida is not a plus on D. Good thing Fenway can hide minus D for half our games.

 

It is interesting to note that fangraphs shows him at a +0.1 on range. Usually Fenway penalizes range due to the fact that the wall prevents many hit balls from being easy fly ball outs. He is -0.4 arm and 0.0 with errors for a net -1.6 UZR/150, which is not horrific.

 

He has a -3 DRS, which is pretty bad for just 242 innings in LF.

 

He has one error charged to him, but a few misplayed balls not considered errors. He has 2 assists.

[Dipre]

The scouting report from his time in Japan is readily available, however, and it describes him as an average fielder with a below average arm.

[mvp 78]

But unlike Jeter, he also has a noodle arm. Almost all of his value is offensive.

 

You sure about that? https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength