The 2023 Red Sox Budget

[moonslav59]

Well, they are on the cusp of WS titles, the Sox are not. If your are constantly in playoff contention, why not just stay over the tax line?

 

I think JH would stay over, too, if our window ever lasted 3 years.

 

In our 3 year window from 2016-2018, we were only over in 2018 (and 2019, too.)

[mvp 78]

I think JH would stay over, too, if our window ever lasted 3 years.

 

In our 3 year window from 2016-2018, we were only over in 2018 (and 2019, too.)

 

2019 was part of the window. The Sox just weren't very good that year. It was still basically the same team as 2018.

[Bellhorn04]

2019 was part of the window. The Sox just weren't very good that year. It was still basically the same team as 2018.

 

100%.

[moonslav59]

2019 was part of the window. The Sox just weren't very good that year. It was still basically the same team as 2018.

 

Agreed. By the deadline, they realized the window had slammed shut and no deadline moves adding salary were made.

 

The window closed at the deadline on 2019. The cliff started in 2020. We can haggle over it being over or not, right now, but the effects were real. The most stark evidence is looking at who we brought up from the farm since devers in mid 2017:

 

The most notable names:

Houck

Dalbec

Duran

 

That's 5 and half years! The cliff was predictable and occured.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. By the deadline, they realized the window had slammed shut and no deadline moves adding salary were made.

 

The window closed at the deadline on 2019. The cliff started in 2020. We can haggle over it being over or not, right now, but the effects were real. The most stark evidence is looking at who we brought up from the farm since devers in mid 2017:

 

The most notable names:

Houck

Dalbec

Duran

 

That's 5 and half years! The cliff was predictable and occured.

 

What do we call 2021?

[moonslav59]

What do we call 2021?

 

In all honesty, I thought it was going to still be part of the cliff, but a team on the upswing. Bloom did a great job building up the 40 man roster depth in 1 year. In hindsight, it's hard to view 2021 as a "cliff," but so many players declined in production from '21 to '22, and not just because of injuries, that one could argue 2021 was a bit of a fluke. One could also argue Bloom and Cora worked magic to create a winner from scratch.

 

I certainly think the results of 2020-2022 were greatly influenced by the lack of just about zero positive infusions from the farm since 2017. One could argue the cliff was 3 years long. One might say 2023 is, too, but to me, with farm infusions looking good and plenty of budget space, I'd say the "cliff" is over, but residual effects remain.

[mvp 78]

What do we call 2021?

 

The team still had a lot of talented players. The issue is that as the players aged, it was harder to keep them all healthy AND/OR productive (see 2022). Sox got some health luck and the bullpen pitched well. Barnes was lights out for 1/2 the year a la Buchholz in 2013. Team got hot again at the right time towards the end of the season.

[notin]

What do we call 2021?

 

A pleasant surprise?

[mvp 78]

A pleasant surprise?

 

A happy accident.

[moonslav59]

A happy accident.

 

They did have luck with health, but I do think saying it's an accident makes it sound like Bloom/Cora had little to do with the success.

 

I guess one could say Whitlock & Pivetta were lucky, but I don't think Kike was luck.

[harmony]

The M's already made some moves, by locking up their solid starting rotation for at least the next three years.

 

Seattle has five pitchers who made 25 or more starts in 2022. Boston had two (one was in his 40s).

 

Best AL clubs in Runs Allowed per Game for 2022: Astros, Yanks, Rays, M's, Guards -- all playoff teams. The Red Sox were second-worst to KC.

The Mariners also return a sixth starter in Chris Flexen who made 22 starts in 2022. Prospect starters Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard and Bryce Miller may be MLB-ready in 2023. This year Dollard was Pitcher of the Year in the Double A Texas League, Prelander Berroa Pitcher of the Year in the High A Northwest League and Joseph Hernandez the Pitcher of the Year in the Single A California League.

 

The Seattle system has pitching depth.

[mvp 78]

They did have luck with health, but I do think saying it's an accident makes it sound like Bloom/Cora had little to do with the success.

 

I guess one could say Whitlock & Pivetta were lucky, but I don't think Kike was luck.

 

“We don't make mistakes, just happy little accidents.”

― Bob Ross

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Mariners also return a sixth starter in Chris Flexen who made 22 starts in 2022. Prospect starters Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard and Bryce Miller may be MLB-ready in 2023. This year Dollard was Pitcher of the Year in the Double A Texas League, Prelander Berroa Pitcher of the Year in the High A Northwest League and Joseph Hernandez the Pitcher of the Year in the Single A California League.

 

The Seattle system has pitching depth.

 

Oh yeah? The Boston system had pitching death.

 

In 2022, the Red Sox were bled by Paxton, Pitcher Who Didn't Pitch All Year, and Sale, Pitcher Who Disappeared, plus Diekman, Hit By Pitcher Of the Year, not to mention Robles, Pitcher In Arrears, and Houck, Canadian Bake Man.

[moonslav59]

The first few signings have begun.

 

I'm curious when our first signing will be announced.

 

Will it be a multiyear deal for Nate? A Bogey deal? A trade and not a signing?

[Hugh2]

The first few signings have begun.

 

I'm curious when our first signing will be announced.

 

Will it be a multiyear deal for Nate? A Bogey deal? A trade and not a signing?

 

I’d be willing to bet the cards start to fall after the meetings

[moonslav59]

I’d be willing to bet the cards start to fall after the meetings

 

Most should, but maybe something happens sooner.

[notin]

Most should, but maybe something happens sooner.

 

The Mariners might have a whole new roster by then…

[moonslav59]

The Mariners might have a whole new roster by then…

 

They do, now.

[notin]

So…

 

Three Sox trade targets I expect to hear them linked to.

 

Adrian Houser

Cal Quantrill

Brad Keller

 

Also I suspect signing Ryan Yarborough will happen at some point…

[Hugh2]

So…

 

Three Sox trade targets I expect to hear them linked to.

 

Adrian Houser

Cal Quantrill

Brad Keller

 

Also I suspect signing Ryan Yarborough will happen at some point…

 

They were linked to Quantrill during the 2016 draft. They were probably hoping he would have fallen to them at 12 when no one expected Groome would have.

[notin]

They were linked to Quantrill during the 2016 draft. They were probably hoping he would have fallen to them at 12 when no one expected Groome would have.

 

That was a different Sox office.

[Hugh2]

That was a different Sox office.

 

There's still a ton of people within this organization that probably scouted, talked to and like Cal.

[mvp 78]

There's still a ton of people within this organization that probably scouted, talked to and like Cal.

 

The organization is very similar to what it was back in 2016. Whether the guys who scouted Cal are still there or not, it's hard to know.

[Bellhorn04]

The organization is very similar to what it was back in 2016. Whether the guys who scouted Cal are still there or not, it's hard to know.

 

Have to check with Larry C. He has the list of guys desperate dave ran off.

[notin]

There's still a ton of people within this organization that probably scouted, talked to and like Cal.

 

Well hopefully they can put together a reasonable package to acquire him. Or Houser. Or both and leave Whitlock and Houck in the bullpen….

[mvp 78]

Well hopefully they can put together a reasonable package to acquire him. Or Houser. Or both and leave Whitlock and Houck in the bullpen….

 

Per BTV

 

Quantrill

 

for

 

Wikelman Gonzalez

Seabold

[Hugh2]

The organization is very similar to what it was back in 2016. Whether the guys who scouted Cal are still there or not, it's hard to know.

 

I didn't feel like digging that deep, but most of the scouts I started looking at are still in the organization now. Ray Fagnot who signed Groome is now the regional scouting supervisor, willie Romy is still a scout, Vaughn Williams who signed Dalbec is still a scout. And Michael Rikard who was the VP of amateur scouting in 2016 is now the Director of scouting.

[mvp 78]

I didn't feel like digging that deep, but most of the scouts I started looking at are still in the organization now. Ray Fagnot who signed Groome is now the regional scouting supervisor, willie Romy is still a scout, Vaughn Williams who signed Dalbec is still a scout. And Michael Rikard who was the VP of amateur scouting in 2016 is now the Director of scouting.

 

The guys that changed are at the top. The bones still seem to be the same.

[Hugh2]

The guys that changed are at the top. The bones still seem to be the same.

 

I think there's enough evidence to speculate there are a lot of people here back then who probably liked him. It doesn't take much to at least want to check in with a guy, doesn't mean they're going to trade for him.

[notin]

Per BTV

 

Quantrill

 

for

 

Wikelman Gonzalez

Seabold

 

His surplus value may drop with a new pending arbitration salary Cleveland is less willing/able to pay…