2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Right now the SOX total payroll stands at about 100 million, which is 15th in MLB. Edited October 20, 2022 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[notin]

Right now the SOX total payroll stands at about 100 million, which is 15th in MLB.

 

That does include Bogaerts and his $20mill…

[mvp 78]

That does include Bogaerts and his $20mill…

 

Until all the options are selected and QO's offered, it's hard to really shake out where teams actually stand.

[Bellhorn04]

Until all the options are selected and QO's offered, it's hard to really shake out where teams actually stand.

 

No kidding.

[mvp 78]

No kidding.

 

Will Boras have Xander opt out during the 9th inning of the World Series a la ARod?

 

That would be a nice 1990's wrestling heel turn. "It was me all along, Boston!"

 

Say it ain't so Xander... but alas it was so.

[oldtimer]

I was thinking, would the Astros prefer to have Correa at $35 mil on a long term contract or Pena at $700K. Both are very good shortstops but one comes $34 mil higher and with additional risk to boot. The Astros chose well and could use the extra bucks to retain pitching and other assets. Do the Sox have a similar choice to make?

[mvp 78]

I was thinking, would the Astros prefer to have Correa at $35 mil on a long term contract or Pena at $700K. Both are very good shortstops but one comes $34 mil higher and with additional risk to boot. The Astros chose well and could use the extra bucks to retain pitching and other assets. Do the Sox have a similar choice to make?

 

I'm not sure the Sox have a viable Jeremy Pena option right now. If Mayer was 2 years older, sure.

[Old Red]

Will Boras have Xander opt out during the 9th inning of the World Series a la ARod?

 

That would be a nice 1990's wrestling heel turn. "It was me all along, Boston!"

 

Say it ain't so Xander... but alas it was so.

 

And goes to the dark side The Yankees.

[mvp 78]

And goes to the dark side The Yankees.

 

The only thing the Sox can do at that point is overpay Judge.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The only thing the Sox can do at that point is overpay Judge.

 

Postseason opponents are pitching to him, and he's struck out 12 times in 24 at bats so far (with only one walk).

 

This is right after Judge had what some scribes call one the greatest regular seasons in AL history.

 

How bad will it get when his bat slows down with age?

[jacksonianmarch]

Postseason opponents are pitching to him, and he's struck out 12 times in 24 at bats so far (with only one walk).

 

This is right after Judge had what some scribes call one the greatest regular seasons in AL history.

 

How bad will it get when his bat slows down with age?

 

I am not worried about his bat. He came into the POs slumping. He will pull out of it at some point

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I am not worried about his bat. He came into the POs slumping. He will pull out of it at some point

 

I'm noting this year only in reference to someone overpaying for his future. The point is no one is giving him the Bonds treatment, even after a record-breaking season.

 

His good D doesn't slump though.

[mvp 78]

I am not worried about his bat. He came into the POs slumping. He will pull out of it at some point

 

He was slumping going into the playoffs?

 

Since 9/23: 160 wRC+

 

The worst you could say is he had a 97 wRC+ over the final 4 games of the year.

[notin]

He was slumping going into the playoffs?

 

Since 9/23: 160 wRC+

 

The worst you could say is he had a 97 wRC+ over the final 4 games of the year.

 

Those 4 games are his reality. The other 158 games are the outlier…

[notin]

The only thing the Sox can do at that point is overpay Judge.

 

Ok let’s say it comes down to that.

 

Judge fills multiple needs for the Sox, as he does for any team. He could easily play RF at Fenway.

 

He’s probably looking for, at minimum 10 years $320mill. Certainly the first few seasons should be worth it, even if he can’t replicate his 2022. But given his age (30) and injury history, how many years would he need to be close to his 2021 self to justify it? And how many years of unproductive Judge can any team expect at the end of the deal?

Edited October 20, 2022 by notin

[mvp 78]

Ok let’s say it comes down to that.

 

Judge fills multiple needs for the Sox, as he does for any team. He could easily play RF at Fenway.

 

He’s probably looking for, at minimum 10 years $320mill. Certainly the first few seasons should be worth it, even if he can’t replicate his 2022. But given his age (30) and injury history, how many years would he need to be close to his 2021 self to justify it? And how many years of unproductive Judge can any team expect at the end of the deal?

 

He's probably not going to ever have another 10 fWAR season. However, he needs to average 5 fWAR for 8 years and then have 2 years where he's a flat zero for the contract to be fine.

[moonslav59]

He's probably not going to ever have another 10 fWAR season. However, he needs to average 5 fWAR for 8 years and then have 2 years where he's a flat zero for the contract to be fine.

 

Agreed. He's very likely worth $320M/8, so going $320M/10 helps on the tax line for 8 years.

 

I seriously doubt the Sox make a strong play for Judge, but it would be a major coup and set the Yanks scrambling to counterstrike.

 

We do need a RF'er, badly.

 

If we go lighter at SS, maybe Swanson or even a cheap bridge to Mayer, Iggy (maybe Lugo in 2024), we can afford to splurge.

 

Someone, wake me up!

[mvp 78]

Agreed. He's very likely worth $320M/8, so going $320M/10 helps on the tax line for 8 years.

 

I seriously doubt the Sox make a strong play for Judge, but it would be a major coup and set the Yanks scrambling to counterstrike.

 

We do need a RF'er, badly.

 

If we go lighter at SS, maybe Swanson or even a cheap bridge to Mayer, Iggy (maybe Lugo in 2024), we can afford to splurge.

 

Someone, wake me up!

 

I don't think Swanson would be much cheaper than Xander. We'll have to see though.

 

Lugo has already being transitioned off SS to 2b and 3b.

[notin]

Agreed. He's very likely worth $320M/8, so going $320M/10 helps on the tax line for 8 years.

 

I seriously doubt the Sox make a strong play for Judge, but it would be a major coup and set the Yanks scrambling to counterstrike.

 

We do need a RF'er, badly.

 

If we go lighter at SS, maybe Swanson or even a cheap bridge to Mayer, Iggy (maybe Lugo in 2024), we can afford to splurge.

 

Someone, wake me up!

 

Kike to SS as a stopgap?

 

Then Kiermaier for CF and Judge in RF…

[moonslav59]

Kike to SS as a stopgap?

 

Then Kiermaier for CF and Judge in RF…

 

I really like Kike in CF, but maybe Kiermaier in CF is better than the declining Iggy or Simmons at SS for cheap.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Swanson would be much cheaper than Xander. We'll have to see though.

 

Lugo has already being transitioned off SS to 2b and 3b.

 

I figured they moved him with the promotion to AA, to keep Koss at SS.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kike to SS as a stopgap?

 

Then Kiermaier for CF and Judge in RF…

 

I'm already on record predicting Kike at short in '23. I'd even take KK in center. But I really don't want to watch 2,000 strikeouts from the same guy in right and DH for the next decade.

 

What's more likely five years from now if the Sox break the bank for Judge: him smiling down the streets of the Bronx playing "Dirty Water" on his boombox or Yankee fans laughing and pointing at Sox fans stuck with the back end of "the big stiff's contract -- Whoo-HA!"

[notin]

I'm already on record predicting Kike at short in '23. I'd even take KK in center. But I really don't want to watch 2,000 strikeouts from the same guy in right and DH for the next decade.

 

What's more likely five years from now if the Sox break the bank for Judge: him smiling down the streets of the Bronx playing "Dirty Water" on his boombox or Yankee fans laughing and pointing at Sox fans stuck with the back end of "the big stiff's contract -- Whoo-HA!"

 

Well they’ll be paying off Gerrit Cole for the same money while watching him pitch like Garrett Richards…

[mvp 78]

I'm already on record predicting Kike at short in '23. I'd even take KK in center. But I really don't want to watch 2,000 strikeouts from the same guy in right and DH for the next decade.

 

What's more likely five years from now if the Sox break the bank for Judge: him smiling down the streets of the Bronx playing "Dirty Water" on his boombox or Yankee fans laughing and pointing at Sox fans stuck with the back end of "the big stiff's contract -- Whoo-HA!"

 

He'll be good 5 years from now. It's not like we're talking Ellsbury here.

[mvp 78]

Well they’ll be paying off Gerrit Cole for the same money while watching him pitch like Garrett Richards…

 

Will Taillon still be around cursing that franchise as well?

[notin]

I really like Kike in CF, but maybe Kiermaier in CF is better than the declining Iggy or Simmons at SS for cheap.

 

I couldn’t think of anyone else for CF. My problem with Kiermaier is he gets hurt a lot and can’t hit against anyone but the Red Sox.

 

But if the Sox sign Judge and Kiermaier, then trade Hosmer to Seattle for the disgruntled and unwelcome Jesse Winker for DH. (They’re issues with Winker include his lack of desire to work on his fielding. So if he’s a DH, who cares?)

 

Hosmer has a full NTC, but so far we only know he doesn’t want to go to a rebuilding team. Seattle, as an ALDS participant, certainly is not one, and their starting 1b (Carlos Santana) is a free agent. Certainly Hosmer would prefer starting in Seattle over watching Casas in Boston. And while Hosmer isn’t exactly the most exciting player, Seattle might enjoy his minimum wage salary…

[mvp 78]

I couldn’t think of anyone else for CF. My problem with Kiermaier is he gets hurt a lot and can’t hit against anyone but the Red Sox.

But if the Sox sign Judge and Kiermaier, then trade Hosmer to Seattle for the disgruntled and unwelcome Jesse Winker for DH. (They’re issues with Winker include his lack of desire to work on his fielding. So if he’s a DH, who cares?)

 

Hosmer has a full NTC, but so far we only know he doesn’t want to go to a rebuilding team. Seattle, as an ALDS participant, certainly is not one, and their starting 1b (Carlos Santana) is a free agent. Certainly Hosmer would prefer starting in Seattle over watching Casas in Boston. And while Hosmer isn’t exactly the most exciting player, Seattle might enjoy his minimum wage salary…

 

Keirmaier tOPS+ 100+ AB Only

KCR 135

DET 129

SEA 128

MIN 124

TOR 114

BOS 105

BAL 100

Interleague 99

NYY 95

 

Not bad considering he's a glove first guy.

[mvp 78]

Keirmaier tOPS+ by Stadium 100+ AB Only

Fenway 140

Yankee3 136

Rogers 132

Tropicana 97

Camden 92

 

Home 98

Away 102

 

Seems like he'd be better off leaving Tampa?

[jad]

He's probably not going to ever have another 10 fWAR season. However, he needs to average 5 fWAR for 8 years and then have 2 years where he's a flat zero for the contract to be fine.

 

Fine in what sense? If he puts the pennies in the seats, which he will, he doesn't need to have great seasons every year.

[mvp 78]

Fine in what sense? If he puts the pennies in the seats, which he will, he doesn't need to have great seasons every year.

 

Fine as in his dollar value per fWAR will even out to his contract value.

 

I don't think the Sox are in danger of having an annual net loss at any point. Will he put butts in the seats? Maybe? Will they plaster his face everywhere? Oh yeah.