A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Nick]

Obviously baseball is a business.

 

With that, on an average, how many rookies should Sox count on to make and establish themselves on the big league team? One pitcher and one position player a year? Should that be the standard to which Bloom should be held accountable?

 

If the player control is six years, then does it make sense to 'budget' 1.5 position players advancing from our farm system to the bigs annually? Now with Devers on the hook for 11 years and Yoshida and Story for 5 years, are we on track for adequate replenishment?

 

Is that standard enough, knowing you can 1) trade for a player and 2) sign a free agent? Different rule for $230M budget Sox vs say Ray's (maybe they need 2 to 3 per year, both in position and pitching)?

 

2023

Casas, 1B

Bello, SP

 

Give Bloom an A

 

2024

Rafaella, CF

Mata?

 

2025

Mayer, SS

?????

 

 

So it goes....

 

PS...Perhaps we say 4 players annually to give an A....

Edited February 5, 2023 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

And if the team bombs in 2023, Bloom might only be passing the baton to the next guy...

[notin]

And if the team bombs in 2023, Bloom might only be passing the baton to the next guy...

 

Very possible, but IMO not likely.

 

I think Bloom will get more leeway than Cherington got, simply because the rash change in direction last time has some serious financial implications…

[Bellhorn04]

Very possible, but IMO not likely.

 

I think Bloom will get more leeway than Cherington got, simply because the rash change in direction last time has some serious financial implications…

 

If the 2023 team finishes under .500, you think Bloom survives?

[Old Red]

The biggest difference was what each GM was handed for a foundation, a farm and a budget.

 

The gap is mind-boggling wide.

 

No doubt, the records are vastly different, too, but there are stark reasons for that. Minimizing those differences is the flaw in your position, IMO.

 

The BIGGEST difference is that Theo, Ben, and DD were all winners. Theo had blunders, Ben had blunders, and DD had his share of blunders, but they ALL WON. Bloom has had his share of blunders, and he’s been a LOSER. Those are facts. No spins just facts.

[Old Red]

Manny Machado accepts your challenge after this season…

 

How much more can Machado get? Plus he’s older now.

[jacksonianmarch]

How much more can Machado get? Plus he’s older now.

 

Machado will get enormous money. He's playing in a massive park and still smashing bombs. He will also hit FA 9 months older than Aaron Judge and he just got $40 mil per.

[jacksonianmarch]

https://www.justbaseball.com/betting/2023-mlb-win-total-projections-early-over-under-picks/

 

Some under overs for wins and losses. Red sox at 76.5 and the lean is under. Yanks at 95 with an over lean

 

I am sorry sox fans, this sox team just don't hunt. Maybe, just maybe, all the broken parts fit together and they contend for the final WC slot, but it looks like the season is gonna be a total loss. As a Yankee fan, I do not like it when Boston is just s*** from day 1. I like the rivalry, I want to look at a Yanks Sox game and be excited for it, not think of it as a steamroller game

[Old Red]

Machado will get enormous money. He's playing in a massive park and still smashing bombs. He will also hit FA 9 months older than Aaron Judge and he just got $40 mil per.

 

Judge got $40M, because he had a record setting year. I can’t see Machado getting close to that who will be 32 in the 2024 season.

[moonslav59]

You lock up players before they get to arbitration. Otherwise you end up paying what you paid Devers. How many of those can you afford?

 

I didn't hear many of you asking for Betts'

extension say his 3rd year.

Bunch of f***ing Monday morning quarterbacks on this board.

 

It has become something fans pay more attention to, of late, but you are right.

 

Let's see what we do with Bello, Casas and the next group of up and coming home growners.

 

It's my opinion that I'd rather we swing and miss on a few, if it means we keep the special ones at discounted rates into their prime.

[notin]

How much more can Machado get? Plus he’s older now.

 

Early prediction is Machado will be the first player to sign two $300 mill contracts…

[notin]

If the 2023 team finishes under .500, you think Bloom survives?

 

I do. Not because I want him to, but because I think Henry will be more patient about building up from within…

[moonslav59]

And if the team bombs in 2023, Bloom might only be passing the baton to the next guy...

 

This could easily turn into Ben II, who I also felt deserved one more year, but the change was totally understandable.

 

When you see that the changing of the guard from Ben to DD was followed up with a massive opening of JH's wallet, getting DD as the GM for that sort of plan made a lot of sense. That is what he is known for.

 

Maybe Bloom is not the guy to want spending large and long.

 

On the other hand, just how good were DD's large and long signings and extensions?

 

$217M/7 Price (10.6 fWAR in 4 years and actually $172M paid)

$145M/5 Sale (1.0 fWAR in 3 years- 48 IP)

$110M/5 JD M (12.0 fWAR in 5 years/ 9.2 w DD in 2 yrs & 2.8 w Bloom in 3 yrs)

$68M/4 Eovaldi (7.3 fWAR in 4 yrs)

$60M/3 Bogey (opted out of $120M/6) 12.1 fWAR in 3 years

 

Kind of a mixed bag.

 

[moonslav59]

If the 2023 team finishes under .500, you think Bloom survives?

 

Close call.

 

A lot might depend on injuries and how good the farm hands Bloom acquired are progressing.

 

If it looks like Mayer is the real deal and will be ML ready in 2024, maybe they let it ride another year.

 

A lot might depend on DD's prospects, too. If the young players like Casas, Bello, Mata and Walter are looking good, and FAs like Yoshida, Turner and Kluber didn't crap the bed, being just under .500 might not be an automatic firing of Bloom.

[moonslav59]

https://www.justbaseball.com/betting/2023-mlb-win-total-projections-early-over-under-picks/

 

Some under overs for wins and losses. Red sox at 76.5 and the lean is under. Yanks at 95 with an over lean

 

I am sorry sox fans, this sox team just don't hunt. Maybe, just maybe, all the broken parts fit together and they contend for the final WC slot, but it looks like the season is gonna be a total loss. As a Yankee fan, I do not like it when Boston is just s*** from day 1. I like the rivalry, I want to look at a Yanks Sox game and be excited for it, not think of it as a steamroller game

 

We'll see. Not all the parts are broken- just Story, Sale and Paxton.

 

There is no reason to think others will be hurt more than the injury prone Yankee roster.

[Nick]

We will have to see how many starting pichers will start 25 games minimum.

 

Many here assume that won't happen.

[moonslav59]

I do. Not because I want him to, but because I think Henry will be more patient about building up from within…

 

This whole long term rebuild was JH & Co.'s idea. That's why they signed Bloom.

 

Some, here, seem to think they hired Bloom and he talked them into massive budget cuts and no trading away any top farm hands.

 

I do think the team Ben was handed a better rotation, farm and budget, but was steered towards building the farm up and not trading much away.

 

Bloom was given a solid foundation but was forced to trade the bluest chip (Betts) with a salary dump Price and to not replace Porcello, a farm with no real help until now, and a gutted budget.

 

I think JH is smart enough to have tempered expectations on the win column.

 

[moonslav59]

We will have to see how many starting pichers will start 25 games minimum.

 

Many here assume that won't happen.

 

Well, unfortunately, the one guy who should, Pivetta, is our #5 not our #1, 2 or 3.

 

I think one or two from Kluber, Whitlock and Bello will reach 25.

 

I'm doubtful Sale + Paxton reach 25, combined.

[dgalehouse]

Rancher: " Luke , you left the gate open and now my prize cattle are gone. " Cowhand Luke: " It's not my fault Sir. The guy who was here two years ago should have put a lock on the gate."

[moonslav59]

Rancher: " Luke , you left the gate open and now my prize cattle are gone. " Cowhand Luke: " It's not my fault Sir. The guy who was here two years ago should have put a lock on the gate."

 

So, the lock on the gate could have been put on by Bloom, day one, and we could have kept Betts, Price and everyone else had Bloom just not talked JH into massive budget cuts.

 

Makes total sense! Good analogy.

 

[Old Red]

So, the lock on the gate could have been put on by Bloom, day one, and we could have kept Betts, Price and everyone else had Bloom just not talked JH into massive budget cuts.

 

Makes total sense! Good analogy.

 

 

As many times as you have tried, and will try blaming DD, and JH, and his limitations on Bloom, and the nonproductive farm system none of that has, or will make the Red Sox under Bloom a winning competitive team. Bloom has to do that on his own, and so far that has not been good enough, and I doubt it ever will.

[harmony]

Well, unfortunately, the one guy who should, Pivetta, is our #5 not our #1, 2 or 3.

 

I think one or two from Kluber, Whitlock and Bello will reach 25.

 

I'm doubtful Sale + Paxton reach 25, combined.

FWIW Roster Resource lists Nick Pivetta as the No. 3 starter for the Red Sox:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Other projections have Pivetta as the No. 3 or No. 2 starter for the Sox:

 

https://soxprospects.com/future.htm

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/red-sox-2023-opening-day-175000054.html

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-2023-opening-day-roster-projection-lineup-rotation-and-bullpen

 

By how much, if at all, will 26-year-old Garrett Whitlock exceed the 82.1 innings the righthander tossed last year across three levels? Whitlock made only nine starts with his remaining work coming out of the bullpen.

Edited February 5, 2023 by harmony

[Old Red]

Rancher: " Luke , you left the gate open and now my prize cattle are gone. " Cowhand Luke: " It's not my fault Sir. The guy who was here two years ago should have put a lock on the gate."

 

Great analogy! Deny, deny, and accuse.

[notin]

Great analogy! Deny, deny, and accuse.

 

Yep. Great analogy. Unless you’re running a baseball team with a high payroll and weak farm system.

 

But if you’re talking about ranching it works…

[Bellhorn04]

Great analogy! Deny, deny, and accuse.

 

It's a silly analogy. Denny seems to honestly believe that Bloom is the man 100% responsible for losing Betts and Bogaerts. He seems to have no idea how a major league baseball team actually works.

[moonslav59]

FWIW Roster Resource lists Nick Pivetta as the No. 3 starter for the Red Sox:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Other projections have Pivetta as the No. 3 or No. 2 starter for the Sox:

 

https://soxprospects.com/future.htm

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/red-sox-2023-opening-day-175000054.html

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-2023-opening-day-roster-projection-lineup-rotation-and-bullpen

 

By how much, if at all, will 26-year-old Garrett Whitlock exceed the 82.1 innings the righthander tossed last year across three levels? Whitlock made only nine starts with his remaining work coming out of the bullpen.

 

They list him as the #2 or #3 because he's expected to pitch way more innings. It makes sense, but many of us slot our rotation by skill level. That might be...

 

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Paxton

5. Bello

6. Pivetta

 

Knowing Paxton cannot be counted on, I slot Pivetta 5, but that's me.

[moonslav59]

Yep. Great analogy. Unless you’re running a baseball team with a high payroll and weak farm system.

 

But if you’re talking about ranching it works…

 

If this is the perfect analogy, it really explains how these posters think. Very enlightening.

[moonslav59]

It's a silly analogy. Denny seems to honestly believe that Bloom is the man 100% responsible for losing Betts and Bogaerts. He seems to have no idea how a major league baseball team actually works.

 

The funny thing is, Red pretends to think DD is to blame for losing Betts, but then jumps on Dale's bandwagon calling what he apparently has not believed the "perfect analogy."

 

Now will come the denials and distractors.

[Old Red]

The funny thing is, Red pretends to think DD is to blame for losing Betts, but then jumps on Dale's bandwagon calling what he apparently has not believed the "perfect analogy."

 

Now will come the denials and distractors.

 

At least Dale has original analogies like Paul Winchell. You keep playing the same old broken records blaming, and excusing over, and over again. Very predictable like you are protecting Bloom’s honor, and image. It doesn’t work with the crybaby boo bird fans, but you keep playing it anyway.

[Old Red]

It's a silly analogy. Denny seems to honestly believe that Bloom is the man 100% responsible for losing Betts and Bogaerts. He seems to have no idea how a major league baseball team actually works.

 

I don’t read it like you do that Denny is blaming Bloom for losing Betts.