A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Don't know much about Seattle's bullpen, but it's mind-boggling that any reputable site would chose the Sox' old and rehabbing question-mark rotation over the young supple muscle tissues of the M's' starters.

 

They're guessing 140 IP for Sale and 121 for Paxton. Wouldn't it be nice.

[mvp 78]

They're guessing 140 IP for Sale and 121 for Paxton. Wouldn't it be nice.

 

I can see 140 for Sale. I have no clue about Paxton. I haven't even heard about his current condition.

[mvp 78]

The latest FanGraphs WAR projections have the Red Sox fourth in the American League East, just ahead of the Seattle Mariners, who are projected fourth in the American League West:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=9

 

In the projections the Red Sox edge over the Mariners comes entirely in projected pitching WAR. Surprising.

 

Without getting into it, do they think the Mariners are taking a step back this year because they played over their heads or just that the Sox last year really underperformed?

[mvp 78]

Critiquing players, coaches, executives, announcers, etc.is all 100% acceptable. Also acceptable is critiquing medical personnel, security, bat boys, hot dog vendors, and parking lot attendants.

But not the fandom of other fans…

 

I'd leave the lower wage people out of the criticism. Everyone else is fair game IMO.

[moonslav59]

Isn’t it arbitrary to question someone’s fandom for critiquing 50% of the team. What are we supposed to do if we have a last place team —- likely more than half of the team will be worse than replacement level. If someone critiques only 25%, is that person a better fan? I just don’t understand why people think that critiquing players means hatred of the players. That’s just silly. Brooklyn Dodger fans called the team Dem Bums, but they loved that team and the players. A critique is not hatred. Movie reviewers who pan a movie because the performances are awful don’t hate the actors. There is a big distinction between critique and hatred. And nicknames are just fun.

 

It's beyond critiquing.

 

You guys are doing your best to keep this thing going.

[mvp 78]

It's beyond critiquing.

 

You guys are doing your best to keep this thing going.

 

Last wordism strikes again!

[moonslav59]

I don't agree with you here at all. I only comment about DD when either you or notin express your feelings with respect to what you feel it is that he did to our farm system. You do a very good job of justifying how you feel i'll admit but it still remains your opinion. Some of us do not believe that it was as devastating as you both want to make out that it was. Some of us really do believe that it wasn't depleted of all talent when he left and some of us believe that he used it the way it should be used. I am very much over this controversy now though. Your feud with Red causes this topic to continually be brought up. Hey, I'm a long leash kind of guy but I do wish that DD was still here.

 

Again, I have no issues with DD. I never said he devastated the farm. A apologized for saying he "squandered" overrated prospects, but I always have given him kudos for keeping Devers and Houck and adding quality prospects we underrated at the time of his departure. I'm not sure why you are now joining Red in misrepresenting my position. notin and I do not agree on everything.

 

I will say, part of the reason we only had Houck graduate in a 5 year period, was because DD did the right thing by giving us a sweet 3 year window (that should have been 4-5 had JH not bailed.) That 5 year drought did have an effect on the 2019 team and the next 3 years' teams.

 

The farm was not devastated or emptied, but there was a significant lull that had a big impact on a team looking to trim its budget.

[moonslav59]

Last wordism strikes again!

 

Yes, you do well at it- same as I.

[mvp 78]

Bello only having 103 innings is low.

[mvp 78]

Tanner Houk pitching 54 innings out of the pen and only getting 0.1 fWAR is a thing... Yeesh...

[Bellhorn04]

Without getting into it, do they think the Mariners are taking a step back this year because they played over their heads or just that the Sox last year really underperformed?

 

The Mariners play in a pitcher's park, the Sox play in a hitter's park, so that has an impact on WAR. You'd have to go through pitcher by pitcher to see what's really going on with their numbers.

 

Projections are just for funsies anyway.

[mvp 78]

The Casas projection: 20HR, 71RBI, 796 OPS, 122 wRC+

 

That's about Matt Olson 2022 production. That power production seems a little on the low side too.

[notin]

Bello only having 103 innings is low.

 

And he will have a reduced total if the Sox get 260 IP from Sale and Paxton…

[notin]

I'd leave the lower wage people out of the criticism. Everyone else is fair game IMO.

 

I’ll drop the bat boys and hot dog vendors. But I think we need to keep security and parking lot attendants. Deal?

[mvp 78]

The Mariners play in a pitcher's park, the Sox play in a hitter's park, so that has an impact on WAR. You'd have to go through pitcher by pitcher to see what's really going on with their numbers.

 

Projections are just for funsies anyway.

 

When you look into the lineup, FanGraphs doesn't like the Mariners LF/DH/RP options. Aside from Munoz and Sewald, it is projecting that bullpen to implode I guess?

 

Their projections aren't ever right anyway. Just mine.

[mvp 78]

And he will have a reduced total if the Sox get 260 IP from Sale and Paxton…

 

I guess they just looked at a 6 person rotation and divided up the innings. I think Bello gets more innings in the rotation and Paxton would be more likely to miss extended time.

[mvp 78]

I’ll drop the bat boys and hot dog vendors. But I think we need to keep security and parking lot attendants. Deal?

 

No deal.

[harmony]

Without getting into it, do they think the Mariners are taking a step back this year because they played over their heads or just that the Sox last year really underperformed?

Perhaps a bit of both.

 

FanGraphs projects regression for, among others, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Cal Raleigh in their age 26, 25 and 26 seasons after the trio posted fWAR of 3.2, 3.0 and 4.2 last year (the latter two in partial MLB seasons).

[notin]

No deal.

 

I forgot about your soft spot for parking personnel…

[moonslav59]

Here are the divisional rankings by position: projected fWAR by position:

 

SP

17.1 NYY

13.5 TBR

12.8 TOR

12.2 BOS

7.5 BAL

 

RP

3.7 TBR

3.4 BOS

3.0 NYY

2.8 TOR

1.9 BAL

 

 

 

C

5.8 TOR

5.6 BAL

4.3 NYY

3.3 BAL

3.1 BOS

 

1B

4.4 TOR

2.9 NYY

2.5 BOS, TBR, BAL

 

2B

4.2 TBR

3.9 NYY

3.3 TOR

3.0 BOS

2.8 BAL

 

SS

5.5 TBR

4.6 TOR

4.1 BAL

3.5 BOS

3.4 BAL

 

3B

5.0 BOS

4.8 TOR

4.5 TBR

3.9 BAL

3.4 NYY

 

LF

3.8 BOS

3.2 TBR

3.1 TOR

2.3 BAL

1.6 NYY

 

CF

4.9 NYY

3.8 TOR

3.7 BAL

3.6 TBR

2.6 BOS

 

RF

6.8 NYY

3.7 TOR

2.9 BOS

2.7 BAL

2.5 TBR

 

DH

2.8 TOR

2.6 NYY

2.3 TBR

2.0 BOS

1.8 BAL

 

Overall Pitching:

20.1 NYY

17.2 TBR

15.6 BOS

15.6 TOR

9.4 BAL

 

Batting

35.9 TOR

33.7 NYY

31.6 TBR

29.5 BAL

28.6 BOS

 

 

AL Totals

53.8 NYY

51.6 TOR

49.9 HOU

48.7 TBR

45.5 CLE

44.9 MIN

44.3 LAA

44.2 BOS

43.9 TEX

43.3 SEA

41.3 CWS

38.9 BAL

31.3 KCR

30.5 OAK

29.8 DET

[mvp 78]

I forgot about your soft spot for parking personnel…

 

A real man would just drive around the Fens looking for a spot for 45 minutes rather than pay $50 to park anyway.

[mvp 78]

LF

3.8 BOS

3.2 TBR

3.1 TOR

2.3 BAL

1.6 NYY

 

Yoshida-mania is running wild. Bloom did it!

[cp176]

The thing is, defending DD is fine. I’ll probably comment on him again at some point in my life. If you defend him then, I get it. It’s the entire purpose of forums like this.

 

But at some point the line gets crossed and the comments get centered around the poster and not the current or former executive…

 

I do agree with you here.

[notin]

A real man would just drive around the Fens looking for a spot for 45 minutes rather than pay $50 to park anyway.

 

That’s MY POINT!!!!

[cp176]

Again, I have no issues with DD. I never said he devastated the farm. A apologized for saying he "squandered" overrated prospects, but I always have given him kudos for keeping Devers and Houck and adding quality prospects we underrated at the time of his departure. I'm not sure why you are now joining Red in misrepresenting my position. notin and I do not agree on everything.

 

I will say, part of the reason we only had Houck graduate in a 5 year period, was because DD did the right thing by giving us a sweet 3 year window (that should have been 4-5 had JH not bailed.) That 5 year drought did have an effect on the 2019 team and the next 3 years' teams.

 

The farm was not devastated or emptied, but there was a significant lull that had a big impact on a team looking to trim its budget.

 

My mistake for which I apologize. I thought that in many of your posts you at least suggested that DD had depleted the farm.

[mvp 78]

That’s MY POINT!!!!

 

I can't fault a person just trying to make a living though.

[moonslav59]

I find it interesting, yet possible, fangraphs projects Mondesi and Casas as being tied for 5th in Sox everyday player WAR. Maybe, it more of an indictment on the 7-13 players with an fWAR over 0.5.

Projected fWAR (PAs)

4.9 Devers 672

3.4 Yoshida 525

2.8 Kike 560

2.6 Verdugo 595

2.2 Casas 532 & Mondesi 462

1.8 Turner 546

1.5 Story 308

1.4 Duvall 448

1.2 Arroyo 301

1.0 Wong 179

0.5 Refsnyder 147

 

Pitchers (IP)

2.7 Whitlock 153

2.5 Sale 140

1.7 Kluber 155

1.6 Bello 113

1.5 Paxton 139

1.4 Pivetta 171

 

0.7 Schreiber 68

0.7 Martin 62

0.6 Jansen 63

0.6 Rodríguez 63

0.4 Houck 80.0

0.2 Brasier 60

0.2 Crawford 51

0.1 Bleier 56

0.1 Walter 21

0.1 Mata 16

0.0 Mills 46, Kelly 26, Ort 42, Altavilla 40, Sherriff 24, Winck 20

 

[a700hitter]

It's beyond critiquing.

 

You guys are doing your best to keep this thing going.

How is it “beyond critiquing” ? Is it stochastic terrorism? LOL!

[a700hitter]

Critiquing players, coaches, executives, announcers, etc.is all 100% acceptable. Also acceptable is critiquing medical personnel, security, bat boys, hot dog vendors, and parking lot attendants.

 

But not the fandom of other fans…

I’ve been in a lot of interesting debates about baseball. Yankees vs Red Sox, DiMaggio vs. Williams, Clemens vs. Pedro, even Yankee fans vs. Red Sox fans etc. I have never been a debate about who is a better fan of the same team. That doesn’t sound like a good debate. It is just silly.

[moonslav59]

My mistake for which I apologize. I thought that in many of your posts you at least suggested that DD had depleted the farm.

 

I have mentioned the 5 year drought, with just Houck graduating, but I do not think he emptied the farm. He did a great job trading away mostly overrated prospects.