A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Winckowski as a reliever in 2022 SSS alert:

 

2.11 FIP

13.3% k-bb

545 BABIP

63.6% GB

 

I don't think he's a late inning arm, but he could end up being a decent middle reliever or bulk innings guy.

 

Let's hope these numbers translate going forward in a RP role.

[moonslav59]

He is DFA material if they are replacing him with OF depth. Greg Allen? Tapia? Not for a pitcher IMO.

 

I think Dalbec has a bench role possibly, but also could be traded. I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

 

Yes, Ort and Brasier get a lot of hate as they seemingly should have been the first out of the door. I would have DFA'd Ort a long time ago. I just don't think moving on from German is a big deal. With Brasier, I at least understand why they believe his low bb% and late season uptick could show future value for this season. I don't really believe it, but I understand their reasoning.

 

Other pitchers I could see DFA'd or traded for minimal return:

 

Murphy

Mills

 

I think Dalbec will stick around until we are sure about Casas.

 

As much as Duran has sucked, he's one of the few OF'ers in the system.

 

I agree on Murphy and Mills. I could see us trading Murphy.

[mvp 78]

And Bloom must have serious faith in former Tampa draftee Mills since he traded a non-40 man player to get him. Granted, he only had to DFA Hosmer to squeeze him onto the roster…

 

Maybe all these little moves won't matter all that much.

[notin]

I think Dalbec will stick around until we are sure about Casas.

 

As much as Duran has sucked, he's one of the few OF'ers in the system.

 

I agree on Murphy and Mills. I could see us trading Murphy.

 

Is Dalbec really all that much of a safety net?

[moonslav59]

Is Dalbec really all that much of a safety net?

 

I've not given up on him. He's streaky, for sure. He still has a .754 career OPS (101 OPS+) after his first 900 PAs in MLB. That's not all that bad, except for a 1Bman.

 

His 650 line is:

 

.232 30 98

 

The .298 OBP and 313 Ks in 814 ABs that is the killer.

 

If Casas falters or gets hurt, I think he'd get one decent look before we looked elsewhere or used Turner at 1B (EValdez or Yoshida at DH?)

 

[mvp 78]

Is Dalbec really all that much of a safety net?

 

No, that's what Turner was signed for?

[moonslav59]

No, that's what Turner was signed for?

 

Then, Dalbec DHs?

[mvp 78]

Then, Dalbec DHs?

 

I'd probably call up Tapia for LF and have Yoshida DH at that point.

[Old Red]

I'd probably call up Tapia for LF and have Yoshida DH at that point.

 

I think Bobby D should start the season at Worcester to get some AB.

[mvp 78]

I think Bobby D should start the season at Worcester to get some AB.

 

And and OFers glove.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec will get another significant chance somewhere, somehow... maybe on another team.

[mvp 78]

Vegas Over/Under: 76.5

 

I kind of feel good about the over.

[moonslav59]

Vegas Over/Under: 76.5

 

These guys know their Sheet.

 

I must not.

 

[notin]

And and OFers glove.

 

And maybe a Tampa uniform?

[mvp 78]

These guys know their Sheet.

 

I must not.

 

 

It's more about knowing where the public will put their money, not where the Sox will end up.

[Nick]

On a positive note...

 

It does appear that Sox pen is vastly improved, on paper at least.

 

I have no clue what advanced metrics may say.....I'm pretty simple minded and old fashion. With that I give you following statistics....

 

Blown Saves AL East

 

36 Rays 44-80 saves/save opportunities

28 Sox 39-67

27 Jays 46-73

19 Yanks 47-68

13 Orioles 46-59

 

1st thing that pops in my mind is that Rays really needed to upgrade their bullpen, more than the Sox. It also proves that they do play in many tight games. (80 SO)

 

Orioles would have hard time repeating their stat on only having 13 blown saves. I didn't realize their pen was so good.

 

Sox will be better just based on our pen being better.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Nick

[Hugh2]

I think Bobby D should start the season at Worcester to get some AB.

 

In the absence of a significant injury in ST I think he absolutely does start the season in AAA

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m actually pretty surprised the socks didn’t sign Chad Green.

[Nick]

Maybe the brass is thinking Bobby D as backup to both 1B and 3B, and to Pinch Hit.

[moonslav59]

It's more about knowing where the public will put their money, not where the Sox will end up.

 

Yes, that is what it is all about, and it shows the "public" has little confidence in the Sox improving on 2022, despite the much easier schedule.

[moonslav59]

Maybe the brass is thinking Bobby D as backup to both 1B and 3B, and to Pinch Hit.

 

If Turner is the DH and back-up 1B/3B, that makes Dalbec the back-up DH and 3rd string 1B/3B.

 

As mentioned, Yoshida may be the true back-up DH, if we can find a 4th OF'er to play LF (Refsnyder? Dalbec? EValdez? Tapia? or Kike to the OF and Mondesi at SS with Duvall in LF?)

[moonslav59]

In the absence of a significant injury in ST I think he absolutely does start the season in AAA

 

Agreed. The everyday 13 should be:

 

C: McGuire & Wong

1B: Casas

2B: Arroyo

SS: Kike

3B: Devers

LF: Yoshida

CF: Duvall

RF: Verdugo

DH/1B/3B: Turner

OF: Refsnyder

SS/2B: Mondesi (if he doesn't start the season on the IL)

 

#13?

 

soxprospects.com has Mondesi on the IL with Duran and Goodrum at #12 and #13, and Goodrum is not even on the 40, yet.

 

My guess is it's Duran or E Valdez- not Dalbec.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m actually pretty surprised the socks didn’t sign Chad Green.

 

The Sox may have figured they have enough reclamation projects on their hands.

[Larry Cook]

Agreed. The everyday 13 should be:

 

C: McGuire & Wong

1B: Casas

2B: Arroyo

SS: Kike

3B: Devers

LF: Yoshida

CF: Duvall

RF: Verdugo

DH/1B/3B: Turner

OF: Refsnyder

SS/2B: Mondesi (if he doesn't start the season on the IL)

 

#13?

 

soxprospects.com has Mondesi on the IL with Duran and Goodrum at #12 and #13, and Goodrum is not even on the 40, yet.

 

My guess is it's Duran or E Valdez- not Dalbec.

 

This spring could be a huge opportunity for Valdez. And even if he does not make the team, arroyo and hernandez will get hurt getting out of bed one morning and if valdez shows well this spring, he could get a shot!

[moonslav59]

This spring could be a huge opportunity for Valdez. And even if he does not make the team, arroyo and hernandez will get hurt getting out of bed one morning and if valdez shows well this spring, he could get a shot!

 

Valdez may just have to look better than Duran and Dalbec, which might not be hard.

 

If he looks better than a butcher on D, the job might be his.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox may have figured they have enough reclamation projects on their hands.

 

He's the classic buy down candidate with a short rehab year and then options for years thereafter. And he's coming back from TJS and has been one of the most consistent relievers in the game the last 5 years.

[moonslav59]

He's the classic buy down candidate with a short rehab year and then options for years thereafter. And he's coming back from TJS and has been one of the most consistent relievers in the game the last 5 years.

 

Too bad you guys can't even afford him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Too bad you guys can't even afford him.

 

No kidding, right?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agreed. The everyday 13 should be:

 

C: McGuire & Wong

1B: Casas

2B: Arroyo

SS: Kike

3B: Devers

LF: Yoshida

CF: Duvall

RF: Verdugo

DH/1B/3B: Turner

OF: Refsnyder

SS/2B: Mondesi (if he doesn't start the season on the IL)

 

#13?

 

soxprospects.com has Mondesi on the IL with Duran and Goodrum at #12 and #13, and Goodrum is not even on the 40, yet.

 

My guess is it's Duran or E Valdez- not Dalbec.

 

That starting line-up features one guy who has played a full MLB season at his listed position: Rafael Devers.

 

But let's say all the guys returning from injuries have great comebacks, all the rookies transition into good big leaguers without painful adjustments, Turner becomes an instant leader, and Verdugo reaches his potential. And the old pitchers don't break down, the new bullpen does its job, and Bello dominates like at every level in his climb to the majors.

 

In those best-case scenarios, the Red Sox are bound to improve...

 

There's only one question about the new balanced schedule: while Boston will play less games vs. tough AL East teams... wouldn't that mean that they will, too?

[Hugh2]

Valdez may just have to look better than Duran and Dalbec, which might not be hard.

 

If he looks better than a butcher on D, the job might be his.

 

I like Valdez, and I think he has an MLB future but I have two big concerns about him. His ability to hit LHP, and his defense. His defense is very subpar, and if he's a blackhole against LHP he's most definitely a platoon bat. I think he will contribute in 2023 but if the Sox are counting on him to play every day at some point for a prolonged period of time I think they are in trouble.