A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

It's one thing to trade Betts, when we all knew he was great. it's another to trade a guy just about everyone thought should be DFA'd. Criticizing that trade is all hindsight. It's not to say a mistake was not made, but this one was understandable, to a greater extent than the Renfroe, beni and other trades.

 

 

I will admit I thought the Sox made a good trade there…

[Bellhorn04]

What if they’re sending back Nate Eovaldi?

 

Qualifies as an exception, yes.

[moonslav59]

If everyone made a list of their 10 worst Bloom moves, the lists would be all over the place, and any ensuing debate might ignore the obvious - which is that there are a lot of candidates. Conversely if we named the 10 best, I would expect much similar lists, although some differences due to how they get weighed by individuals and some wouldn’t credit him for moves they felt were obvious.

 

I think his direction is what this team needs. His steps to get there are largely debatable…

 

Maybe my best and worst 12...

 

Best

Whitlock Rule 5

Schreiber MLFA

Wacha signing

Pivetta trade

Kike signing

Hill signing

Renfroe signing

Deadline trades: Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles, McGuire trade

Strahm signing

Refsnyder & Kelly MLFA

Arroyo Waivers

Ottavini & German trade

 

Worst

Renfroe for JBJ

Bogey slap in face offer

Paxton signing

Barnes extension

Diekman signing

Richards signing

Marwin signing

Perez signings (I & II)

Andriese signing

Not getting under the tax line in '22

Not having at least a mini fire sale in summer '22

Spending most of the '23 budget on DH/LF/1B

 

Hard to Grade/Blame but many will see as bad

Betts for Dugo, Wong & Downs

The Bogey walk

Beni for Cordero, Wink and 3 others

 

I probably forgot some doozies.

 

[Bellhorn04]

"Jury's out" on Paxton.

[mvp 78]

"Jury's out" on Paxton.

 

For 4M? It's a good gamble.

 

Last year's $$$ is just a sunk cost.

[notin]

Maybe my best and worst 12...

 

Best

Whitlock Rule 5

Schreiber MLFA

Wacha signing

Pivetta trade

Kike signing

Hill signing

Renfroe signing

Deadline trades: Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles, McGuire trade

Strahm signing

Refsnyder & Kelly MLFA

Arroyo Waivers

Ottavini & German trade

 

Worst

Renfroe for JBJ

Bogey slap in face offer

Paxton signing

Barnes extension

Diekman signing

Richards signing

Marwin signing

Perez signings (I & II)

Andriese signing

Not getting under the tax line in '22

Not having at least a mini fire sale in summer '22

Spending most of the '23 budget on DH/LF/1B

 

Hard to Grade/Blame but many will see as bad

Betts for Dugo, Wong & Downs

The Bogey walk

Beni for Cordero, Wink and 3 others

 

I probably forgot some doozies.

 

 

There’s a difference to me in a stupid move and a good move that didn’t pan out for whatever reason. For example, I had no issues with extending Barnes, who was a stud at the time and many on here thought would command a contract similar to the 3 year $54mill deal that Liam Hendricks got. I can’t consider that low risk extension as bad as, say, not protecting Ward….

[Bobe2]

It's one thing to trade Betts, when we all knew he was great. it's another to trade a guy just about everyone thought should be DFA'd. Criticizing that trade is all hindsight. It's not to say a mistake was not made, but this one was understandable, to a greater extent than the Renfroe, beni and other trades.

 

I can see that

[mvp 78]

I disagree that Andriese is a bad move.

 

Garrett Whitlock, Boston Red Sox

 

“The [changeup] I throw now, I started messing around with during Tommy John recovery. I had my fastball and slider, and I knew that I was going to need the third pitch if I was going to still be a starter. Obviously, this was before coming to the Red Sox. When I got to spring training, Matt Andriese helped me a lot with it — things like how to throw it and how to really use it in counts.

 

“I’d had a changeup before, but it was never really that good. It was always too hard. Then I saw the video of Pedro Martinez talking to Dan Plesac about why his changeup had been too hard: he’d been using two dominant fingers to throw it. So he slid the ball over a little bit, and used two non-dominant fingers. That kind of deadened it a little bit, so during TJ rehab, that’s what I did. I moved it over to my ring finger and my pinky. Then I played catch with it every day and developed a feel for it.

 

“[Andriese] said that pretty much everyone will tell you, ‘Throw it the same way as your fastball, throw it the same way as your fastball,’ but that’s not really how he visualizes it. He visualizes it as like, ‘Throw it like a well-completed pitch, but always focus on pronation.’ He said to focus on making sure you get the ring finger through the ball, to really get that spin you’re looking for. That’s kind of what I focus on, making sure I’m getting that ring finger through the ball. Everyone naturally pronates, so as long as your hand is on top, you’re going to naturally pronate through the ball.

 

“I’m looking for more of that three o’clock, nine o’clock — that sideways spin — but I have no idea what the spin rate is on it. I’m just trying to miss barrels. I’ll go to our analytics guys to see how it grades out, and they tell me that the grades are good, so as long as they’re happy with it, and it’s getting outs… that’s all I’m worried about.”

 

Without Andriese, Whitlock may not have a changeup.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Simple rules for GM's #27:

 

Never trade a pitcher to the Rays. If they want him, it means he's better than you think, and you should keep him.

 

I didn't think that during the Springs' trade, but I immediately assumed Ronaldo was overrated -- as in, would the Rays send a legit prospect to Boston if he was any good?

[notin]

I didn't think that during the Springs' trade, but I immediately assumed Ronaldo was overrated -- as in, would the Rays send a legit prospect to Boston if he was any good?

 

Of course at the time, Bloom and probably knew the Rays’ farm better than Boston’s..

[mvp 78]

Of course at the time, Bloom and probably knew the Rays’ farm better than Boston’s..

 

He had direct first hand knowledge of the prospect and first hand knowledge of Springs and Mazza. Bloom had the upper hand in the trade and seemed to blow it.

[notin]

He had direct first hand knowledge of the prospect and first hand knowledge of Springs and Mazza. Bloom had the upper hand in the trade and seemed to blow it.

 

And at the time I thought he fleeced the Rays…

[notin]

So the A’s are continuing their philosophy of making trades that just flop on BTV. How is Bloom not trying to fleece this team?

 

Also, in related news, Darwinzon is available again…

[moonslav59]

So the A’s are continuing their philosophy of making trades that just flop on BTV. How is Bloom not trying to fleece this team?

 

Also, in related news, Darwinzon is available again…

 

I'm now surprised the A's would not take DHern, Barnes and $9M for Irvin.

[moonslav59]

The O's finally made a move that looks to improve on a team that looked poised to take a step up in 2023.

 

I'm no expert on O's winter moves, but it seems they still lost more talent since the deadline than gained.

[moonslav59]

And at the time I thought he fleeced the Rays…

 

RHern had a pretty high BTV value:

 

13.8 RHern

0.1 Sogard

 

for

 

0.2 Mazza

0.0 Springs

[vegasbob]

perhaps the better move with Barnes would have been to use him in the first half of season when he tended to perform better and then trade him at or before the deadline for anything possibly useful. Brasier and Ort among others may or may not survive ST or the actual season, but unless Bloom has a deal cooking now , he's dumping MLB experience and paying the salary anyway. Cannot be the best outcome. Plus I cannot rag on my favorite bullpen flame thrower all season.

[moonslav59]

RHern had a pretty high BTV value:

 

13.8 RHern

0.1 Sogard

 

for

 

0.2 Mazza

0.0 Springs

 

Now, ...

 

32.8 Springs

0.0 Mazza

 

0.7 R Hernandez

[mvp 78]

Now, ...

 

32.8 Springs

0.0 Mazza

 

0.7 R Hernandez

 

Springs is 32.8 even with the new deal?

[moonslav59]

Springs is 32.8 even with the new deal?

 

Yes, I looked just for that reason:

 

$63.8M value over 5 years

- $31M salary

 

$32.8 Value

[mvp 78]

Yes, I looked just for that reason:

 

$63.8M value over 5 years

- $31M salary

 

$32.8 Value

 

IDK, I guess I'm just not a long term Springs believer. We'll have to see how it goes. Seems like Rays get guys to pop for a year or two then they fall off the map. I think Springs won't be worth the 10M when the contract reaches that amount.

[moonslav59]

IDK, I guess I'm just not a long term Springs believer. We'll have to see how it goes. Seems like Rays get guys to pop for a year or two then they fall off the map. I think Springs won't be worth the 10M when the contract reaches that amount.

 

They'll trade him right before he declines.

[Bellhorn04]

Don't look now, but the Rays are actually starting to spend a little, too.

[moonslav59]

Don't look now, but the Rays are actually starting to spend a little, too.

 

Adding future trade capital.

[mvp 78]

Don't look now, but the Rays are actually starting to spend a little, too.

 

Total projected payroll is 62M.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Total projected payroll is 62M.

 

Instead, the Rays could've just spent all that on Verlander 43M, Vazquez 10M and Segura 8.5M -- one pitcher, catcher and fielder.

 

Just think of the savings on daily team laundry, washing 3 uniforms instead of 26.

[moonslav59]

Total projected payroll is 62M.

 

cots has $119M on the tax budget, which includes benefits. Last year's opening day was $84M, but it ended up over $97M.

 

Spotrac has $114M.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has the Sox 2023 Payroll at $192M, which ties us for 11th with SFG.

 

They have our lux tax payroll at $218M (11th most, but just $1M under TEX, $2M under LAA and $3M under CHC.

 

Our $135M commitments for 2024 place us 5th, but we fall to 10th in 2025 commitments at $76M.

 

[Nick]

“At that time three years ago, we were faced with a similar choice with one year from free agency with a superstar player. And we didn’t sign him,” Bloom said at Winter Weekend. “And I want to explain why, because it relates to where we’re going. We didn’t sign him because when you make those bets, they’re big bets and (more boos) those bets — hang with me here. Those bets, you all know it and are smart — they are much better up front than on the back end. We know that but if you want to make that type of bet, you better be ready to back it up and surround that with a whole lot of talent, a whole lot of young talent, or you’re not going to win. You see it all the time in this game. I don’t think anybody would disagree where the organization was, we just weren’t ready to back up that bet.”

 

When Bloom is directly quoted, it matters. It makes no difference what we think, what he thinks matters more.

 

I agree with what he just said at the Winter Carnival.

 

We made a bit this winter, Devers or Xander. I think he made the right call.

 

We're still buying time. I would think playoff expectations become realistic next year. Everything would have to go right for this year's team to do it. Principally, everyone must stay healthy and need a stellar year out of guys like Sale, Yoshida, Bello and Casas plus the bullpen.

[a700hitter]

“At that time three years ago, we were faced with a similar choice with one year from free agency with a superstar player. And we didn’t sign him,” Bloom said at Winter Weekend. “And I want to explain why, because it relates to where we’re going. We didn’t sign him because when you make those bets, they’re big bets and (more boos) those bets — hang with me here. Those bets, you all know it and are smart — they are much better up front than on the back end. We know that but if you want to make that type of bet, you better be ready to back it up and surround that with a whole lot of talent, a whole lot of young talent, or you’re not going to win. You see it all the time in this game. I don’t think anybody would disagree where the organization was, we just weren’t ready to back up that bet.”

 

When Bloom is directly quoted, it matters. It makes no difference what we think, what he thinks matters more.

 

I agree with what he just said at the Winter Carnival.

 

We made a bit this winter, Devers or Xander. I think he made the right call.

 

We're still buying time. I would think playoff expectations become realistic next year. Everything would have to go right for this year's team to do it. Principally, everyone must stay healthy and need a stellar year out of guys like Sale, Yoshida, Bello and Casas plus the bullpen.

He’s on thin ice. If he finishes last again, he will not get to ‘24.