A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Old Red]

Old schoolers look at RBI, but they don't seem to about how easy it should be for Yoshida and Turner to out RBI Bogey and JD. All we heard about, last year was Renfroe's lost 98 RBIs.

 

They look at how we can possibly replace Wacha's 3.32 ERA and Nate's 3.87. They don't loos closely at the fact that both started 43 games, combined and really weren't as good as their ERAs showed they were.

 

You have no clue what Yoshida will do against ML pitching, or a 38 year old Turner. They might not even be as good as Bogey, and JD this year let alone last year. Yes losing Renfroe’s production was huge, and that’s why you kept hearing about the BIG blunder Bloom had made all year.

[mvp 78]

Big questions as of now:

 

1. Can 29-year-old Matasaka Yoshida replace the batting production of 30-year-old Xander Bogaerts? MAYBE

 

2. Can 38-year-old Justin Turner replace the production of 35-year-old J.D. Martinez? YES

 

3. Can Adam Duvall replace the production of Trevor Story until Story's return? NO, BUT ONLY BECAUSE I EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT FROM STORY IN '23

 

4. Can Triston Casas step up as an everyday MLB first baseman? YES

 

5. Is Kiki Hernandez an everyday shortstop? YES

 

6. Is Christian Arroyo an everyday second baseman? NO

 

7. Can the combo of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong replace the production of long-time Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez? YES

 

8. Can the addition of Corey Kluber, as well as the uncertain returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton, offset the departures of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill as the Sox await the development of Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck? YES, BUT ONLY BECAUSE THE ROTATION WAS NOT GOOD LAST YEAR

 

9. Will the big-ticket additions of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin sufficiently bolster a beleaguered Boston bullpen amid the volatility of relievers? DEPENDS ON WHAT "SUFFICIENTLY" MEANS

 

The answers should determine whether the Red Sox will finish in the range of 78 to 85 wins.

 

It feels like an 85 win team at best right now.

[mvp 78]

Yes, the reason I say the Red Sox looked lousy at the end of 2021 comes down to their last 9 games:

 

0-3 vs Yankees at home horrific

1-2 vs 52-110 Orioles horrific

3-0 vs 65-97 Nats clutch/fortunate - every game was tough

 

That O's series was embarrassing.

[Old Red]

It feels like an 85 win team at best right now.

 

To me it is going to come down to the starting rotation on how good, or how bad their record will be.

[mvp 78]

You have no clue what Yoshida will do against ML pitching, or a 38 year old Turner. They might not even be as good as Bogey, and JD this year let alone last year. Yes losing Renfroe’s production was huge, and that’s why you kept hearing about the BIG blunder Bloom had made all year.

 

You have no clue what JD will do in '23 as he's now a year older and on further decline. Bogey is moving from an offensive friendly environment to San Diego, facing a bunch of new pitchers and may have substantial struggles this season.

[moonslav59]

Yes we know you had close to zero hopes, and bailed at the first sign of predictable trouble after giving your daily wildcard standings updates. There is not enough cheese available to go with the continuous whine you are still doing about last year.

 

I still don't get why my daily posts of the WC standings sticks out to you as some sort of contradiction on my behalf or whatever issue it has to do with me "bailing."

 

Although I may have been the first poster to give up on the team, others said way worse things about the team almost from day one.

 

Last year's team seemed snake-bitten from day one: too many key injuries, many all at once, which forced our rotation to dip down to the #8 and 9th SP'ers on the depth chart, including forcing Houck and then Whitlock out of the pen. Too many vets declined in production. The FA additions actually ended up being a net plus (Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Ref vs Diekman.) The JBJ trade was the straw that broke the camel's back.

 

I find it strange that posters like you, who bashed the team all year long seem so upset over my giving up on the team a few days or weeks before you.

 

As for whine and cheese, you keep repeating this same thing over and over, too.

 

To me, posting WC standings while giving up on our chances earliest is not a contradiction. To me, posters who said the team sucked all year but wanted us to try and upgrade at the deadline (or not have even a mini fire sale) are the ones with mixed and contradictory opinions. You were pissed we traded Vaz and ignored the fact that McGuire did better over the final 2 months of the year, and that still got us no closer to a playoff slot.

 

We wasted a chance to improve the team for 2023 and beyond. All for what?

 

False hopes?

 

How much hope do you have, now, for 2023? My guess is you've already "bailed."

[mvp 78]

To me it is going to come down to the starting rotation on how good, or how bad their record will be.

 

Rotation has a decent ceiling, but a VERY LOW floor. The rotation could be absolute garbage for sure. Paxton, Sale, Kluber could all just fall off the Earth and it wouldn't be a huge shock. Bello could just have a sophomore slump. Pivetta could just be Pivetta. Yuck.

[moonslav59]

You have no clue what Yoshida will do against ML pitching, or a 38 year old Turner. They might not even be as good as Bogey, and JD this year let alone last year. Yes losing Renfroe’s production was huge, and that’s why you kept hearing about the BIG blunder Bloom had made all year.

 

I put "???" next to Yoshida's OPS+. Why are you saying I have "no clue what Yoshida will do?"

 

I've admitted that. My point was, it might not be so hard to equal Bogey and JD's run production from 2022.

 

Aren't you the guy who ranted about needing to replace renfroe's 98 RBI for months and months?

 

Maybe Yoshida and Turner do not replace Bogey & JDs 152 RBVIs from 2022, but my point is only that the bar is not all that high.

 

I have no idea how either will do in 2023, but I can guess.

[Old Red]

You have no clue what JD will do in '23 as he's now a year older and on further decline. Bogey is moving from an offensive friendly environment to San Diego, facing a bunch of new pitchers and may have substantial struggles this season.

 

NOBODY has a clue what anybody will do is the main point. JD may be finished as a power producer, or he may still have a few good years left in him, and the same for Bogey. Time will tell.

[mvp 78]

RsBI are stupid anyway.

[moonslav59]

Rotation has a decent ceiling, but a VERY LOW floor. The rotation could be absolute garbage for sure. Paxton, Sale, Kluber could all just fall off the Earth and it wouldn't be a huge shock. Bello could just have a sophomore slump. Pivetta could just be Pivetta. Yuck.

 

...and Whitlock & Houck could fall short of expectations, too. Mata, walter, Murphy, Wink and Crawford could all fall flat on their faces, if they are need to fill in.

 

Yes, the floor is very low.

 

Yes, there is also a decent ceiling.

 

We have to replace 69 starts from Wacha, Hill and Naate, but also 34 from Crawford, Wink, Seabold & Davis.

[mvp 78]

NOBODY has a clue what anybody will do is the main point. JD may be finished as a power producer, or he may still have a few good years left in him, and the same for Bogey. Time will tell.

 

I agree, so what's the point in using "well you don't know" as an argument? None of us know the future. None of us really have more of a clue into these players than anyone else. Do I really have that much more insight into Player X because I looked at some metrics on FanGraphs and some other poster just watched them play once on TBS? No. It's all just guess work.

 

At the end of the day, let's just not take this place too seriously and try to not go after each other so often.

[Old Red]

I agree, so what's the point in using "well you don't know" as an argument? None of us know the future. None of us really have more of a clue into these players than anyone else. Do I really have that much more insight into Player X because I looked at some metrics on FanGraphs and some other poster just watched them play once on TBS? No. It's all just guess work.

 

At the end of the day, let's just not take this place too seriously and try to not go after each other so often.

 

I’m for that, but it should be that way for all.

[moonslav59]

RsBI are stupid anyway.

 

Yes, but I'm just wondering why they mattered, last year, but not this year.

[moonslav59]

I’m for that, but it should be that way for all.

 

You perception that others are pretending to "know it all" is a major flaw in your rants.

[Bellhorn04]

You have no clue what JD will do in '23 as he's now a year older and on further decline. Bogey is moving from an offensive friendly environment to San Diego, facing a bunch of new pitchers and may have substantial struggles this season.

 

Bogey's consistent 130ish OPS+ factors in his offensive-friendly home park.

 

And with the balanced schedule, everyone will be facing new pitchers more.

 

I think he'll be fine.

[Old Red]

You perception that others are pretending to "know it all" is a major flaw in your rants.

 

He was talking about you too, but you don’t seem to comprehend that, and yes I agree you pretending to know everything is a major flaw in your rants.

[moonslav59]

Left-hander Ryan Sherriff announced over the weekend that he’s signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

He was talking about you too, but you don’t seem to comprehend that, and yes I agree you pretending to know everything is a major flaw in your rants.

 

Thinking you know what I comprehend and don't comprehend is also a serious flaw in your rants, and it is further evidence you pretend you know more than you know.

[moonslav59]

Bogey's consistent 130ish OPS+ factors in his offensive-friendly home park.

 

And with the balanced schedule, everyone will be facing new pitchers more.

 

I think he'll be fine.

 

Career:

 

114 OPS+ Home

 

87 OPS+ Away

 

89 OPS+ in SD but just 27 PAs

 

The Away splits were pretty awesome since 2018:

 

2022: 146 H/ 126 A

2021: 150 H/ 124 A

2020: 110 H/ 159 A

2019: 160 H/ 133 A

2018: 159 H/ 123 A

Edited January 23, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Left-hander Ryan Sherriff announced over the weekend that he’s signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

 

We have a new sheriff in town!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Rotation has a decent ceiling, but a VERY LOW floor. The rotation could be absolute garbage for sure. Paxton, Sale, Kluber could all just fall off the Earth and it wouldn't be a huge shock. Bello could just have a sophomore slump. Pivetta could just be Pivetta. Yuck.

 

2023 Win Projections (bb-ref): Kluber and Pivetta 9 each, Whitlock 5, Houck-Bello-Sale 4 each, Paxton 3.

 

That's 38 wins by the starting rotation. We only need to find a 50-game winner somewhere and we could be a wild card!

 

The floor is in the kitchen with a gaping hole in it next to the hot stove... and guess what we're looking at.

[Old Red]

Thinking you know what I comprehend and don't comprehend is also a serious flaw in your rants, and it is further evidence you pretend you know more than you know.

 

Do you know he was talking about you too? Once again we agree you comprehending is another serious flaw.

[Old Red]

Bogey's consistent 130ish OPS+ factors in his offensive-friendly home park.

 

And with the balanced schedule, everyone will be facing new pitchers more.

 

I think he'll be fine.

 

I don’t think Bogey is finished by any means, but what kind of numbers he puts up in other parks will be interesting to see. He’ll have plenty of good bats around him.

[mvp 78]

I’m for that, but it should be that way for all.

 

I agree.

 

I'm not solely blaming you.

[mvp 78]

You perception that others are pretending to "know it all" is a major flaw in your rants.

 

The fact that you have to always have the last word is a major flaw in your rants.

[mvp 78]

Bogey's consistent 130ish OPS+ factors in his offensive-friendly home park.

 

And with the balanced schedule, everyone will be facing new pitchers more.

 

I think he'll be fine.

 

He should be "fine," yes. However, it's going to sap his power numbers even further IMO. He better put some good road numbers up at Coors.

[Old Red]

I agree.

 

I'm not solely blaming you.

 

I get that, but the problem is other parties don’t. I get it that others don’t want to hear constant I know you are, but what am I going endlessly back, and forth. I’ve been on endless message boards, and forums through the years, and have never seen anything like this.

[mvp 78]

Thinking you know what I comprehend and don't comprehend is also a serious flaw in your rants, and it is further evidence you pretend you know more than you know.

 

It's a Monday morning. Seriously?

[a700hitter]

We have a new sheriff in town!

Print the World Series tickets.