A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I totally understand their thinking and never said they were wrong. I complain a bout things, too- usually different things from most others.

 

Some complained just trading Vaz away was too much and signaled to the clubhouse we were giving up, when in reality, McGuire ended up doing better than Vaz and Pham did better than Cordero/Duran. Hosmer might have improved on Dalbec/Cordero but he hardly played.

 

My point was that I felt the fear of upsetting too many fans, for all the reasons you gave and more, was a major factor in their decision not to at least trade JD. I get it. Really, I do. I also remember we were not far from the last WC slot, but I also remember there were several teams between us and the playoffs, and in my opinion, which is on the opposite side of the "playoffs are a crapshoot" spectrum than you and others- the 2022 Red Sox had close to zero chance at winning a ring by mid July.

 

Okay, bring up the Phillies, who by the way won 5 in a row to end July and were 8 games over .500 on August 1st. They had 5 teams ahead of them: we had 8 and were tied with CWS at .500, so basically 9 teams.

 

The team made the choice for various reasons combined. I wish they had made another choice, and it's not in hindsight. Several of us felt this way, and I am pretty certain, we were a small minority.

 

I wish we had better comp picks and more bonus money to spend, this next draft.

 

I wish we'd have better prospects by getting something back for players we lost for nothing. I fully understand there would have been many upset fans, especially those who paid big money for tickets to games after the deadline and not seeing Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm.

 

As it turned out, the team ended up being marginally better on paper after the deadline, due to the trades, but fans were still pissed, so management didn't even get what they wanted to get, anyway.

 

Well, it's not just about pissed fans, either. It's about disinterested fans who find better things to do than watch a post-fire sale mess. You don't have to be pissed to do that.

 

The team front office has to strike a balance between what's good for the team and what's good for business.

[Bellhorn04]

As it turned out, the team ended up being marginally better on paper after the deadline, due to the trades, but fans were still pissed, so management didn't even get what they wanted to get, anyway.

 

That sure sounds like a "should have known" argument. They should have known Sale would get injured again, that Paxton wouldn't be able to pitch, that Houck's last game would be August 2, that Story would get hurt again etc.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That sure sounds like a "should have known" argument. They should have known Sale would get injured again, that Paxton wouldn't be able to pitch, that Houck's last game would be August 2, that Story would get hurt again etc.

 

If we could see the injuries coming -- and that includes Hill and Wacha, and even Eovaldi with his history -- then Bloom and his boys did know. They just chose to take their chances with the rotation they built -- just like they're doing again this year. Kluber will be 37 in the first week of the season, half a decade since his last year as a top of the rotation ace.

 

When will the Sox think they're good enough to invest resources in a guy in his prime? They thankfully wouldn't trade Casas for Lopez, but hopefully it wasn't because of only two years of control for the latter... because that could mean Bloom doesn't think upgrading with an under-30 starter is worth it in '23 or '24...

[harmony]

Just like how relying on a 38yo pitcher with 6 total innings in 2020 and 2021 completely derailed the Astros’ season.

 

Not saying Sale is without risk, but sweeping generalizations about recovery just don’t apply universally…

Indeed the Red Sox can hope for a statistical aberration such as Justin Verlander.

[notin]

Some might call Verlander a freak of nature, bouncing back like he did at his age. But looking at body types, deliveries, sources of power (non-spousal division) -- a whipper snapper like Sale weighing 40 pounds less has to be more of a longshot to regain dominance.

 

A big concern is how Sale maintains leg strength, now that bike-riding has to be outlawed by the Sox. They also won't let him work out by lifting big screen TVs -- or even watch a funny show on one, lest he crack a rib laughing.

 

Sale’s contract explicitly states he can only ride stationary bikes and is only allowed to watch syndicated reruns of “Young Sheldon,” as no one has ever laughed at that show, let alone tickled a rib to the point of fracture…

[notin]

If we could see the injuries coming -- and that includes Hill and Wacha, and even Eovaldi with his history -- then Bloom and his boys did know. They just chose to take their chances with the rotation they built -- just like they're doing again this year. Kluber will be 37 in the first week of the season, half a decade since his last year as a top of the rotation ace.

 

When will the Sox think they're good enough to invest resources in a guy in his prime? They thankfully wouldn't trade Casas for Lopez, but hopefully it wasn't because of only two years of control for the latter... because that could mean Bloom doesn't think upgrading with an under-30 starter is worth it in '23 or '24...

 

Kluber vs Lopez comes down to if you like fWAR or bWAR

 

Kluber was worth 3.0 fWAR but only 0.7 bWAR. (1.9 FUBAR)

Lopez was worth 2.8 fWAR and 3.0 bWAR (2.9 FUBAR)

 

Of course, with Kluber you get to keep Casas.

 

I can see either option…

[notin]

Indeed the Red Sox can hope for a statistical aberration such as Justin Verlander.

 

Or Johnny Cueto…

[moonslav59]

Much hinges on the health of Chris Sale and James Paxton, who enter their age 34 seasons after combining for only 70 MLB innings* over the past three seasons.

 

It would be risky for a team to rely on a starter whose injuries limited the pitcher to only 70 innings the previous season. The combined risk with Sale and Paxton might be sixfold.

 

Or not.

* 79 innings including Sale's nine postseason innings in 2021

 

I know the odds of either pitching 100 IP, let alone 150 may not be great but 2 x 25% is better than 1 x 25%.

 

We also could have Sale + Paxton = 0 IP but have great seasons from Bello, Whitlock, Houck and Kluber with steady Pivetta doing better than 90% of other teams' 5th starters. That's what I meant about not needing all or even 2/3rds of the 18 listed things to go right and still significantly improve on 2022.

[moonslav59]

I think most Red Sox fans right now would like to see Mookie in RF, and Bogey at SS next year when they pay some of the highest prices in baseball when they go to Fenway, and Don’t care about cliffs, or the lux tax, or any other such things. They want to see the team win here, and now, and get into the postseason, and a shot at the WS. They are not crybabies just, because you like to label them that way. It takes a crybaby to know a crybaby, and I’ll gladly admit I’m one of those crybabies, but there is no bigger crybaby on here than you when you go on, and on about how people that criticize Bloom are Bashers.

 

That pretty much sums up your circular rants very well.

[moonslav59]

Well, it's not just about pissed fans, either. It's about disinterested fans who find better things to do than watch a post-fire sale mess. You don't have to be pissed to do that.

 

The team front office has to strike a balance between what's good for the team and what's good for business.

 

Exactly. It's a business and trying to keep the most fans happy and excited about the team is a big part of their decisions. Again, I know why they did what they did. They do what they have to do, and what they think is best for the business of making money- which is largely linked to fan happiness and the perception of having a chance at glory in the given moment.

 

There is a constant battle of the here and now vs extended future going on with every team to varying degrees. We can talk about "windows" and "rebuilds" all day, and some teams have to avoid even the perception of "rebuilding," even if it is obvious that is the mode they are most in.

[notin]

I think most Red Sox fans right now would like to see Mookie in RF, and Bogey at SS next year when they pay some of the highest prices in baseball when they go to Fenway, and Don’t care about cliffs, or the lux tax, or any other such things. They want to see the team win here, and now, and get into the postseason, and a shot at the WS. They are not crybabies just, because you like to label them that way. It takes a crybaby to know a crybaby, and I’ll gladly admit I’m one of those crybabies, but there is no bigger crybaby on here than you when you go on, and on about how people that criticize Bloom are Bashers.

 

 

So… they want magic?

 

That’s like saying “I just want a car that gets me to work. I don’t care about mileage or maintenance or repairs!!”

 

Well, not caring about those things will effect the ability of the car to get you to work. And not in a good way…

[moonslav59]

That sure sounds like a "should have known" argument. They should have known Sale would get injured again, that Paxton wouldn't be able to pitch, that Houck's last game would be August 2, that Story would get hurt again etc.

 

IMO, it was clear as day last year's team was never going to be the Phillies, even if these guys came back from the IL and did well. The team was snake-bitten from the start. That's just my perception.

 

No, I don't see it as "shoulda known." I know why they did what they had to do, and I know they have different things to care about than I do.

 

IMO, we should have sacrificed the meager chances we had at doing something special in 2022 for a better outlook in 2023 and beyond. I'm not beating my chest and saying "I told you so," because there is no right and wrong answer. They made a choice I understand.

 

I cared more about the future than our measly chances in '22. That's me. A few others here seemed to agree. We can say we'd be better off, now, had we done what we wanted, but that's not saying mistakes were made by not doing what we wanted. I wish they did, but they didn't. I move on.

[Old Red]

That pretty much sums up your circular rants very well.

 

You think you get everything, and you think you know everything, and you don’t, and you don’t. You can write long column after long column all you want that most of the time says the same things over, and over again. You know the old wash, rinse, and repeat. Why do you constantly have to bash the fans, and call hem crybabies? Does it make you feel better? It must, because you can’t do without it.

[notin]

I listed Hamilton, because he is on the 40 and, right now, our middle IF depth is close to zero. We all know the over under on Arroyo's first IL stint in April 9th.

 

As for pitchers vs everyday players: last year 26 players got 1 PA or more- actually 12 or more.

28 non-everyday players pitched .1 IP (actually 3.1 or more). That's pretty close to even.

 

We currently have 23 pitchers on the 40 man roster. 17 are everyday players with 13 of them starting on the ML roster. That leaves 4 in AAA/AA- most likely Rafaela, Hamilton, Duran, Abreu and Tapia or Alfaro added once Story head to the 60 day IL.

 

As of now, our 4 man ML bench looks like: Wong C, Dalbec 1B/3B, EValdez 2B/1B & Refsnyder OF.

 

Once we add a middle IF'er, Hamilton's chances will diminish, greatly, but I'd still put him above Feltman. I might even put Santos, Shugart, Drohan or Ryan Fernandez above Feltman

 

 

 

It’s easy to say now they were never going to be the Phillies, but let’s not ignore no one expected the Phillies to do what they did either. The talk of them before the postseason was that they were the least “built for the postseason.” They had 2 reliable starting pitchers, no closer, a bullpen that struggled all year long, and quite possibly the worst defensive corner outfield duo since Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez were teammates.

 

What did that team have to bank on for their postseason run?

[Old Red]

So… they want magic?

 

That’s like saying “I just want a car that gets me to work. I don’t care about mileage or maintenance or repairs!!”

 

Well, not caring about those things will effect the ability of the car to get you to work. And not in a good way…

 

You’ve got enough to worry about with wondering if the 3rd, and 1B foul lines can be guarded this year, and if Turner will be on the bench , or not then worrying about other fans, and you may even learn something.

[moonslav59]

You’ve got enough to worry about with wondering if the 3rd, and 1B foul lines can be guarded this year, and if Turner will be on the bench , or not then worrying about other fans, and you may even learn something.

 

For someone who thinks disagreeing is just not understanding, you do a lot of actual misunderstanding of other people's positions.

[moonslav59]

It’s easy to say now they were never going to be the Phillies, but let’s not ignore no one expected the Phillies to do what they did either. The talk of them before the postseason was that they were the least “built for the postseason.” They had 2 reliable starting pitchers, no closer, a bullpen that struggled all year long, and quite possibly the worst defensive corner outfield duo since Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez were teammates.

 

What did that team have to bank on for their postseason run?

 

The Phillies did not look like a snake-bitten team in July 2022. I did not expect they'd go as far as they did, just as the Sox did in '21, but I was 99.99% sure the Sox were going to reach glory, last year. To me, sacrificing that 0.1% of winning to improve the longer term outlook was worth it, but I don't have to worry about season ticket holders, irate fans, NESN subscriptions and other business factors that go into choices like that one.

 

I'm not claiming I was right and they were wrong, although fans seemed pretty pissed off, anyway. I'm not sure how much more they'd have been pissed had we just traded JD.

[moonslav59]

You think you get everything, and you think you know everything, and you don’t, and you don’t. You can write long column after long column all you want that most of the time says the same things over, and over again. You know the old wash, rinse, and repeat. Why do you constantly have to bash the fans, and call hem crybabies? Does it make you feel better? It must, because you can’t do without it.

 

You can keep playing armchair therapist all you want.

 

I understand your opinions and others. When I misrepresent one of their opinions, I recognize it, correct my statement and apologize, when needed.

 

When I tell you, "You don't understand," it is factual. I prove you didn't understand it by quoting your own words that you later deny even saying.

 

When you say, "They don't understand," like in the last instance, you are totally off the mark.

 

Case in point: it's not "bashing fans" by calling them "crybabies." I've admitted I am one, often, and that crybaby fans aren't always in the wrong. And, why do you care? You proudly admit to being one, too- just like me.

 

My point was that crybaby fans force decisions to be made by management- for good or bad, and that even the determination of what is "good or bad" is subjective and means something different to me that to you or Sox management. Take the example this whole crybaby thing came up over: the lack of having a fire sale or mini firesale. I have never said not having one was a mistake and that Sox management was wrong and the crybaby fans were wrong. I just said I disagreed. That's not the same as saying they were wrong. That's a nuance you can't understand, EVER!

 

They have business factors to consider. I don't. You have tickets to the August 15th game and want to see JD and Bogey in the line-up. You are not wrong to want that. I fully understand the positions.

 

I just care more about the future than a 0.1% chance at glory in the here and now. That's how I viewed it. I know I'm in the minority. I know I cry about things. I'm not bashing crybabies. I'm just pointing out their influence and how it went against by desires.

 

I'm not stating my positions to make me feel better or because I can't live without it. You are delusional, dude.

[moonslav59]

Casas open to extension talks...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/triston-casas-open-to-extension-talks-with-red-sox.html

[oldtimer]

Casas open to extension talks...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/triston-casas-open-to-extension-talks-with-red-sox.html

 

It's too early for those discussions with Casas. The concept of getting future stars to sign team friendly contracts as insurance that they won't warrant them later on is a good way to build a competitive team. The players are assured of being paid a goodly amount to play for a period while the team can avoid huge long term contracts that often backfire.

[moonslav59]

Looking at just the defense from 2022 to 2023, we have a few areas where significant changes have been made...like all positions, except 3B.

 

Innings

First, 3B appears to be the one position where little change will be made.

1186 Devers

140 Dalbec

72 Arroyo + 32 Downs

We will likely see Turner get the bench minutes at 3B, a slight change and likely to the good.

 

Catcher

643 Vaz

421 Plawecki

229 McGuire + 138 Wong

It's hard to predict an improvement or decline on D, here. I'll go with even.

 

1B

635 Dalbec

362 Cordero

198 Casas

105 Hosmer+ 51 Arroyo + 47 Vaz +26 Shaw

I have to think Casas is a major upgrade on D over Bobby Dee + Cordero

 

2B

814 Story

310 Arroyo

109 Sanchez

87 Kike +56 Downs + 23 Chang + 21 Arroyo

I can't see any chance for improvement, here, unless we add a 2Bman. Although Story only played a little over half the innings at 2B, he was superb. Loss, here.

 

SS

1250 Bogey

77 Arroyo+ 45 Kike + 32 Chang+10 Dalbec + 10 Arauz

If Kike plays most of the innings, here, I'm saying it will be a plus over '22.

 

LF

874 Dugo

419 Pham

82 Cordero+25 Refsnyder + 23 Almonte

I'll call Yoshida e net loss.

 

CF

669 Kike

416 Duran

171 JBJ

115 Refsnyder +34 Almonte + 19 Ja Davis

With Duvall getting most of the innings, who knows- maybe a tiny net plus dues to about 700 innings from Duran, Ref, Almonte, Davis and Cordero in '22. (That's half)

 

RF

526 JBJ

432 Dugo

163 Refsnyder

124 Cordero

108 Arroyo+ 46 Duran+ 24 Davis

Since JBJ only played a little over a third of the innings in RF in '22, this position may end up being close to even. Call it a net but slight minus. No Cordero, Duran and Arroyo (280 innings) can help.

 

So, I'm going with...

 

Big Plus at 1B

Slight Plus at 3B, SS & CF

Even at C

Slight Minus at LF, RF

Big Minus at 2B

 

Maybe call it an overall even? Our D at DH could tip the balance to a plus! (LOL)

 

[moonslav59]

What's your over-under bets on IP totals for these Sox pitchers:

 

180 Pivetta

160 Whitlock

160 Bello

140 Kluber

100 Sale

80 Paxton

 

70 Crawford

70 Winckowski

 

60 Houck

60 Schreiber

 

55 Jansen

55 Martin

 

50 Brasier

50 Barnes

50 Rodriguez

 

40 Mata

40 Walter

40 Mills

40 Taylor

40 Kelly

 

35 Murphy

35 German

 

30 Ort

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

What's your over-under bets on total PAs by these Sox players in 2023:

 

640 Devers

640 Verdugo

 

600 Yoshida

 

560 Casas

560 Turner

 

520 Kike

 

480 Duvall

 

440 Arroyo

440 McGuire

 

320 Refsnyder

 

200 Wong

200 Dalbec

 

160 Tapia

160 Duran

160 EValdez

 

120 Story

120 Rafaela

120 Hamilton

 

80 Alfaro

80 Mayer

 

[notin]

You’ve got enough to worry about with wondering if the 3rd, and 1B foul lines can be guarded this year, and if Turner will be on the bench , or not then worrying about other fans, and you may even learn something.

 

 

You’re reading comprehension sucks.

 

The guarding the lines thing was me saying I didn’t like the banning of a defensive strategy (referring to the shift) and equated it to banning another defensive strategy (guarding the lines).

 

The Turner thing was a joke about the Sox trying to devalue Devers by making him a DH, which actually satirized the actual original negotiation the Sox made by offering Devers a contract similar to Matt Olson’s. See, Olson isn’t a 3b and plays a less important defensive position. The exaggeration in the satire was to drop Devers all the way down to the least important defensive role.

 

It’s not only childish that you constantly repeat this in an attempt to discredit other people, but it’s truly sad and ironic that you actually think it’s the other people you think it makes look stupid…

[notin]

The Phillies did not look like a snake-bitten team in July 2022. I did not expect they'd go as far as they did, just as the Sox did in '21, but I was 99.99% sure the Sox were going to reach glory, last year. To me, sacrificing that 0.1% of winning to improve the longer term outlook was worth it, but I don't have to worry about season ticket holders, irate fans, NESN subscriptions and other business factors that go into choices like that one.

 

I'm not claiming I was right and they were wrong, although fans seemed pretty pissed off, anyway. I'm not sure how much more they'd have been pissed had we just traded JD.

 

I would think the Phillies had their share of fans who thought the Phillies should sell for the exact reasons I mentioned…

[moonslav59]

I would think the Phillies had their share of fans who thought the Phillies should sell for the exact reasons I mentioned…

 

The differences were massive.

 

The Sox were tied for 9th. The Phillies 6th.

 

Plus, everyone knows DD never "sells."

[notin]

The differences were massive.

 

The Sox were tied for 9th. The Phillies 6th.

 

Plus, everyone knows DD never "sells."

 

I agree the Sox had to climb over more teams was difficult, but the Phillies only clinched at game 161, and even then, looked like a team simply not built for a postseason run.

 

What I liked about that team is they totally killed any myth about a team being “not built for the postseason.” There is no such thing, despite that you will hear it every year, even from the talking heads on the radio and TV…

[moonslav59]

I agree the Sox had to climb over more teams was difficult, but the Phillies only clinched at game 161, and even then, looked like a team simply not built for a postseason run.

 

What I liked about that team is they totally killed any myth about a team being “not built for the postseason.” There is no such thing, despite that you will hear it every year, even from the talking heads on the radio and TV…

 

I've never been a believer in the "Playoffs are a crapshoot," so that is a foundation of my feeling on the 2022 Red Sox.

 

I think the way the 2021 Red Sox and 2022 Phillies looked in July was way different from the way the 2022 Red Sox looked. Granted, the returning players offered promise not witnessed during the first 4 months of 2022, but to me the slim chances of glory was worth trading for a slightly improved long term outlook of the Sox.

 

The improved com picks & bonus pool money, alone seems worth a lot. Anything we got in return would be a bonus. Had we done a major fire sale, we could have gotten something very nice. Afterall, look what we got for just Diekman!

 

I realize we did still have a shot. I get it. If I had tickets to a game after the deadline or season tickets, I'd not be too happy about that, but I'm always looking ahead. My perspec tive is no better than anyone else's, but it is what it is.

[Bellhorn04]

I've never been a believer in the "Playoffs are a crapshoot," so that is a foundation of my feeling on the 2022 Red Sox.

 

I think the way the 2021 Red Sox and 2022 Phillies looked in July was way different from the way the 2022 Red Sox looked. Granted, the returning players offered promise not witnessed during the first 4 months of 2022, but to me the slim chances of glory was worth trading for a slightly improved long term outlook of the Sox.

 

The 2021 Red Sox looked horrible going into the postseason. They were incredibly lucky to be there.

[harmony]

I know the odds of either pitching 100 IP, let alone 150 may not be great but 2 x 25% is better than 1 x 25%.

 

We also could have Sale + Paxton = 0 IP but have great seasons from Bello, Whitlock, Houck and Kluber with steady Pivetta doing better than 90% of other teams' 5th starters. That's what I meant about not needing all or even 2/3rds of the 18 listed things to go right and still significantly improve on 2022.

It's risky to count on Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to break out this year to be anything more than a No. 5 starter.

 

FWIW Roster Resource currently has Nick Pivetta as the No. 3 Red Sox starter ahead of James Paxton and Garrett Whitlock.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Nothing wrong with optimism but expectations should be tempered.