A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

Immaturity isn't our problem here from what I've noticed with our elder posters.

 

Keep me posted for when it is. I’m actually holding back…

[notin]

If Ward pitches well this season, you have a strong case to just let Bloom go even if the Sox aren't a dumpster fire.

 

 

I doubt he gets let go for that specific move. But the big picture at present doesn’t look good.

 

I mean, we saw a GM select an unprotected Johan Santana in the Rule 5 draft and then trade him for some random human being named Jared Camp. That GM was Dave Dombrowski, and it didn’t inhibit his ability to build a career..

Edited January 19, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

I do think Tapia means Duran gets DFAd. And as he’s extremely unlikely to clear waivers, I’d think he does get traded.

 

But trading him for any of the aforementioned shortstops, while it makes sense from a baseball perspective, fails to achieve the objective of DFAing Duran in the first place, which is clearing a 40 man roster spot for Duvall…

 

DFA Ort to make room for Duvall. Trade Duran for a SS (or 2BMan.)

[Old Red]

When all is said, and done in this offseason how many other big market clubs with a payroll as big as the Red Sox will have as many question marks entering the season? Good Golly Miss Molly.

[Hugh2]

When all is said, and done in this offseason how many other big market clubs with a payroll as big as the Red Sox will have as many question marks entering the season? Good Golly Miss Molly.

 

Not many

[Nick]

For that Yankee fan I formerly respected, only number that is meaningful is 4-1 as we enter 2023 season.

[moonslav59]

When all is said, and done in this offseason how many other big market clubs with a payroll as big as the Red Sox will have as many question marks entering the season? Good Golly Miss Molly.

 

Most teams have a lot of questions, but yes indeed, we have more than our fair share, especially for the large, player budget we have.

 

Our highest contracts seem to be the biggest question marks.

 

$313M/10 Devers- some question his D and weight

$145M/5 Sale- too many questions to list

$140M/6 Story- Injury questions

$90M/5 Yoshida- No MLB experience questions

$32M/2 Jansen- age regression questions

$22M/2 Turner- age regression

$19M/2 Barnes- inconsistency

$18M/2 Martin- age

$10M/1 Kike- injury

$10M/1 Kluber- injury/age

$7M/1 Duval- age/recent regression

Verdugo, Pivetta, Arroyo, McGuire, Casas- good enough?

Paxton- injury

Houck/Whitlock- starter/reliever?

 

Many more than this.

 

 

[a700hitter]

I do think Tapia means Duran gets DFAd. And as he’s extremely unlikely to clear waivers, I’d think he does get traded.

 

But trading him for any of the aforementioned shortstops, while it makes sense from a baseball perspective, fails to achieve the objective of DFAing Duran in the first place, which is clearing a 40 man roster spot for Duvall…

Tapia is better than Duran. Not a bad move.

[Nick]

Sox made an offer that Devers couldn't refuse. Tax hit is only $29M. No second guessing now.

 

We will alway have the Fill Ins on short term deal.

 

I viewed Bloom's job to be developing inhouse talen.

I can go buy players. I am wwilling to wait.

[mvp 78]

It might matter how well Yoshida, Jansen, Martin, Turner and Duvall are doing.

 

There have been some significant unforced errors by Ben. Those just can't happen.

[mvp 78]

I swear you said that exact same thing (except for the year, obviously) in 2018…

 

In 2021 it was the "I've been right for 7 straight years about the Sox and they are going to suck this year."

[dgalehouse]

The Sox seem to be assembling a half way decent ball club . A team that should be able to pass the Orioles and possibly the Rays , if Tampa Bay continues to drop off. However , this team does not look like it can match up with the top tier teams. A healthy and productive Chris Sale would be key , but that might be asking for too much.

[Bellhorn04]

The final tax budget numbers for 2022 are in. The Sox went over by $1.2M, which caused our comp picks for losing Bogey and Nate to fall a couple rounds.

 

Thanks, Bloom!

 

Incorrect number, though. They paid $1.2 mill but were over by $6 mill. Per Cot's:

 

2022: $1,229,936 tax on CBT payroll of $236,149,678 with $230M threshold and a rate of 20 percent as a first-time payor.

[notin]

DFA Ort to make room for Duvall. Trade Duran for a SS (or 2BMan.)

 

Ort appears to be immovable. Whatever blackmail he has on Bloom, it’s apparently rock solid…

[Old Red]

The Sox seem to be assembling a half way decent ball club . A team that should be able to pass the Orioles and possibly the Rays , if Tampa Bay continues to drop off. However , this team does not look like it can match up with the top tier teams. A healthy and productive Chris Sale would be key , but that might be asking for too much.

 

Half way decent remains to be seen, but what they are building is one of the oldest teams in the league, and might get there with a old SS, or two.

[moonslav59]

There have been some significant unforced errors by Ben. Those just can't happen.

 

No doubt, but again, when 95% of your deals are $7M or under, what is the expected success rate?

[mvp 78]

Ort appears to be immovable. Whatever blackmail he has on Bloom, it’s apparently rock solid…

 

1. Options

2. Velo

3. ???

[notin]

Half way decent remains to be seen, but what they are building is one of the oldest teams in the league, and might get there with a old SS, or two.

 

No way are they the oldest.

 

Last year, the Sox were the 11th oldest team with an average age of 28.8 years, just behind the Miami Marlins. Adding Jansen, Martin and Duvall certainly ups them a bit lit. But bear in mind we also lost Rich Hill, among others…

[mvp 78]

No doubt, but again, when 95% of your deals are $7M or under, what is the expected success rate?

 

What I mean is (a) going over the CBT in a year you wind up in last DAMN, ( letting your prospect get picked 1/1 in the Rule 5 draft when you protected a whole bunch of nonsense, © trading Renfroe because he was going to be too expensive for an even more expensive JBJ, (d) letting your star SS go for a QO pick when you probably could have re-signed him for cheaper money in previous years (e) etc.

 

I'm not talking about FA signings or that didn't work out, just the things that were so obvious that he must have been hit over the head with a frying pan to not notice what was going on while these were occurring.

[mvp 78]

No way are they the oldest.

 

Last year, the Sox were the 11th oldest team with an average age of 28.8 years, just behind the Miami Marlins. Adding Jansen, Martin and Duvall certainly ups them a bit lit. But bear in mind we also lost Rich Hill, among others…

 

When fans only pay attention to one team, they sky is always falling.

[notin]

1. Options

2. Velo

3. ???

 

I assume “???” means “non-photoshopped jpegs of compromising positions”…

[moonslav59]

What I mean is (a) going over the CBT in a year you wind up in last DAMN, ( letting your prospect get picked 1/1 in the Rule 5 draft when you protected a whole bunch of nonsense, © trading Renfroe because he was going to be too expensive for an even more expensive JBJ, (d) letting your star SS go for a QO pick when you probably could have re-signed him for cheaper money in previous years (e) etc.

 

I'm not talking about FA signings or that didn't work out, just the things that were so obvious that he must have been hit over the head with a frying pan to not notice what was going on while these were occurring.

 

Yes, I'm fully aware of many of the dumb choices made by this group of leaders. You mentioned most of the worst and most impactful ones. I'd add a few more, too, like our fascination with LF'ers and moving GG caliber defenders to other positions, but agreed.

 

Some moves made before this group took over had lasting affects... like the Sale extension, leaving a farm that produced just Houck over a 5 year span, and a bloated budget.

[notin]

1. Options

2. Velo

3. ???

 

Also, Ort has gas. True. But so did Jacob Wallace, who was traded away. So did Julian Merryweather, whom he passed up on waivers. So does Manny Rodriguez, sitting out there on waivers right now.

 

Ort throws hard. But so do a lot of pitchers…

[Old Red]

What I mean is (a) going over the CBT in a year you wind up in last DAMN, ( letting your prospect get picked 1/1 in the Rule 5 draft when you protected a whole bunch of nonsense, © trading Renfroe because he was going to be too expensive for an even more expensive JBJ, (d) letting your star SS go for a QO pick when you probably could have re-signed him for cheaper money in previous years (e) etc.

 

I'm not talking about FA signings or that didn't work out, just the things that were so obvious that he must have been hit over the head with a frying pan to not notice what was going on while these were occurring.

 

I’d say this sums things up pretty dam well.

[dgalehouse]

Half way decent remains to be seen, but what they are building is one of the oldest teams in the league, and might get there with a old SS, or two.

 

They are hoping to get AARP as a sponsor.

[moonslav59]

They are hoping to get AARP as a sponsor.

 

At least the older guy contracts are 1-2 year deals.

 

We will be one of the youngest teams by next year.

[moonslav59]

Age Player Years of control

 

38 Turner (1-2)

36 Martin (2), Kluber (1-2)

35 Jansen (2), Brasier (1)

34 Paxton (1)

33 Sale (2-3)

32 Barnes (1-2)

31 Kike (1), Refsnyder (2), J Rodriguez (3)

30 Story (5), Ort (5+)

 

[Old Red]

At least the older guy contracts are 1-2 year deals.

 

We will be one of the youngest teams by next year.

 

But will they be better??? That’s all that counts. Lots of hopes, and wishes for all these prospects you’ve been touting.

[Bellhorn04]

At least the older guy contracts are 1-2 year deals.

 

Seems to me like a sensible strategy for this year.

[moonslav59]

But will they be better??? That’s all that counts. Lots of hopes, and wishes for all these prospects you’ve been touting.

 

It's almost all speculation, but with the increase in the amount of promising prospects called up last summer and scheduled to see time in 2023, I'm thinking there is good reason to be optimistic that some will help, perhaps greatly.

 

I'm sure several will fail, but I count 15 recent grads and upcoming prospects that should or may see time, this season:

 

5 Recent Grads: Bello, Wong, Crawford, Wink & Ort

 

3 Second Seasons: Casas, Kelly, German

 

8 First Timers in 2023: Mayer, Rafaela, Mata, Walter, Murphy, EValdez, RHern, Hamilton

 

There is certainly reason for caution and doubt, but I sense you are not very optimistic about the new crop of prospects.

 

I could be wrong, but it looks vastly better than...

 

Houck

Dalbec

Duran

Downs

Chavis

DHern

Shawaryn

BJohnson

Lakins

 

That's only 9 guys from Devers in 2017 to Bello in 2022 (5 years!)

 

Less names.

 

Worse names.

 

I think we have good reason to be cautiously optimistic.

 

On this area, I think Bloom and even DD deserve some credit, but we'll know more, soon enough.