A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

I’m not even saying you’re wrong in your prediction. My belief is A ball is too early to tell much of anything. I don’t even get excited about prospects until AA, let alone label them foundations…

 

Foundation was the word choice you used. That didn't come from me.

[mvp 78]

Portland is the best bet at some point.

 

June 1.

[mvp 78]

It doesn't take a degree in Classics at Yale to make McGuire jokes.

 

I think a Yalie could certainly come up with the McGuire jokes I've seen on here.

[notin]

Foundation was the word choice you used. That didn't come from me.

 

No, but “franchise shortstop” did.

 

And what word do you prefer for a player you build around?

[Old Red]

June 1.

 

I’m ready to go.

[mvp 78]

No, but “franchise shortstop” did.

 

And what word do you prefer for a player you build around?

 

I have a strong conviction that Mayer will be the next "franchise shortstop" and that once he makes it here, we won't have to worry about that position for a while.

[mvp 78]

I’m ready to go.

 

The first home game would be 6/6 vs Akron. Book tickets now! Pre-order your Mayer Sea Dogs shirseys!

 

The weather probabaly isn't good enough to attend a game before then anyway.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Montero was the first top ten flop that leapt to mind. Corey Patterson was second, but felt too obscure for a Sox board…

 

Regarding young guys making the bigs, Bloom told us last week that Rafaela's timeline wouldn't be impacted by the parent club's needs -- but does anyone think Chaim's might be just a tad tempted by the Prospect Promotion Incentive in the latest CBA?

 

Imagine bringing up a rookie whose success rewards the club both on the field and with an additional pick in the next draft? Fans love seeing a Florida phenom go North... and how can a sustained contender builder like Bloom resist!

[Old Red]

The first home game would be 6/6 vs Akron. Book tickets now! Pre-order your Mayer Sea Dogs shirseys!

 

The weather probabaly isn't good enough to attend a game before then anyway.

 

That will stir up some excitement in Portland. I saw Jacoby’s first game many years ago, and this will top that.

[moonslav59]

I'm being reminded of the 2017 offseason where everyone laughed about me saying Devers would make it to BOS that year...

 

I don't care if my belief isn't good enough for you. Saying "what at bat at A+ convinced you" is just f***ing stupid though. I've read the scouting reports and I trust what they say. He's a great clubhouse guy and has all the tools to be a franchise SS. I'm all in. I sure as s*** would trust those scouting reports over some naysayer on TalkSox.

 

I think we see Mayer, this year, too.

 

I do think it's a bit too early to say he is a foundational player, but he sure has that promise.

[mvp 78]

Regarding young guys making the bigs, Bloom told us last week that Rafaela's timeline wouldn't be impacted by the parent club's needs -- but does anyone think Chaim's might be just a tad tempted by the Prospect Promotion Incentive in the latest CBA?

 

Imagine bringing up a rookie whose success rewards the club both on the field and with an additional pick in the next draft? Fans love seeing a Florida phenom go North... and how can a sustained contender builder like Bloom resist!

 

Not a chance.

[mvp 78]

There is a great little article on Jorge Alfaro at FanGraphs today.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reflections-on-the-bear/

 

At his peak, Alfaro is faster than Cristian Pache and Cedric Mullins. His hardest-hit ball of 2022 came in (or, more accurately, went out) at 115.2 mph, harder than anything hit by Mike Trout, Kyle Schwarber, or Joey Gallo in 2022. And he can play the hardest defensive position in the sport.

 

How is this guy not a starter, let alone a star?

 

The more useful way to ask that question is: How does the hitter with the worst contact numbers and plate discipline in baseball turn out to be an above-replacement-level player? Now, “worst contact numbers and plate discipline in baseball” is a superlative, which usually indicates some kind of exaggeration. But if I’m exaggerating, it’s not by much.

 

BB% 4, 334th

K% 35.8, 8th

OSwing% 49.2, 2nd

Swing% 62.7, 1st

OContact% 52.2, 322nd

Contact% 65.2, 346th

 

Alfaro was the only player to hit 200 or more times in 2022 and post a walk rate of 4% or lower and a strikeout rate of 35% or higher. Baseball Savant registers 531 hitters who saw at least 50 pitches in the chase zone in 2022; of those, Alfaro ranks 529th in run production and is one of just 11 not to break even. He lives outside the heuristic most of us have for “bad plate discipline.” No matter how many borderline pitches he sees, he will continue to swing and miss every time.

[Tedballgame]

Red Sox sign Adam Duvall.

[Tedballgame]

One year, 7 million.

[notin]

I have a strong conviction that Mayer will be the next "franchise shortstop" and that once he makes it here, we won't have to worry about that position for a while.

 

Hope so.

 

But the timeline for that is debatable..

[moonslav59]

Kike has barely played a half season in innings at SS over his 9 year career. Here are his defensive metrics by position:

 

DRS in innings/ UZR/150

 

SS: + 9 in 618/+12.3

2B: +18 in 1717/ -5.3

CF: +21 in 2494/+7.8

LF: +15 in 603/+18.0

RF: +3 in 343/+11.9

 

Maybe he'll do a great job at SS for us. I'm still questioning the idea, but it looks like the plan.

 

[mvp 78]

Kike has barely played a half season in innings at SS over his 9 year career. Here are his defensive metrics by position:

 

DRS in innings/ UZR/150

 

SS: + 9 in 618/+12.3

2B: +18 in 1717/ -5.3

CF: +21 in 2494/+7.8

LF: +15 in 603/+18.0

RF: +3 in 343/+11.9

 

Maybe he'll do a great job at SS for us. I'm still questioning the idea, but it looks like the plan.

 

 

It's moving Kiké to a position he's never played fulltime and moving Duvall to a position he's never played fulltime. Where could it go wrong?

[Old Red]

It's moving Kiké to a position he's never played fulltime and moving Duvall to a position he's never played fulltime. Where could it go wrong?

 

After watching Franchy at 1B, and Duran trying to play CF last year i don’t think it will look all that bad.

[moonslav59]

It's moving Kiké to a position he's never played fulltime and moving Duvall to a position he's never played fulltime. Where could it go wrong?

 

I'm on record as being in total disagreement with this plan.

 

It makes zero sense, to me. It's not like no SS are available on the market (FA and trade.)

 

While I do think Kike is a great athlete and may end up doing fine at SS, it's not worth the gamble.

 

I will add one point, before Kike pretty much became our FT CF'er he had only player CF for over 150 innings in a season one time, and that was just 373 innings in 2018.

[Old Red]

I'm on record as being in total disagreement with this plan.

 

It makes zero sense, to me. It's not like no SS are available on the market (FA and trade.)

 

While I do think Kike is a great athlete and may end up doing fine at SS, it's not worth the gamble.

 

I will add one point, before Kike pretty much became our FT CF'er he had only player CF for over 150 innings in a season one time, and that was just 373 innings in 2018.

To much worrying about how someone looks on D. Renfroe wasn’t good enough in RF. Dugy isn’t good enough in RF. Bogey wasn’t good enough at SS. Vaz wasn’t good enough at C. None of these guys are butchers out there. Franchy, and Duran were butchers.

[moonslav59]

To much worrying about how someone looks on D. Renfroe wasn’t good enough in RF. Dugy isn’t good enough in RF. Bogey wasn’t good enough at SS. Vaz wasn’t good enough at C. None of these guys are butchers out there. Franchy, and Duran were butchers.

 

Oh, I worried about them, too.

 

I'm sorry, but defense matters to me. Maybe too much. Maybe too little to you.

 

I know what I saw from Kike in CF, and all the metrics and stats support the idea that he is great on def4ense in CF.

 

It seemed just as easy to add a SS over a sketchy CF'er. I'm trying my hardest to bash Bloom and Cora, but you Bloom brown-nosers are making it hard on me!

 

[Bellhorn04]

Kike has barely played a half season in innings at SS over his 9 year career. Here are his defensive metrics by position:

 

DRS in innings/ UZR/150

 

SS: + 9 in 618/+12.3

2B: +18 in 1717/ -5.3

CF: +21 in 2494/+7.8

LF: +15 in 603/+18.0

RF: +3 in 343/+11.9

 

Maybe he'll do a great job at SS for us. I'm still questioning the idea, but it looks like the plan.

 

 

Bloom is just trying to convince Andrus we don't need him that much.

[Old Red]

Oh, I worried about them, too.

 

I'm sorry, but defense matters to me. Maybe too much. Maybe too little to you.

 

I know what I saw from Kike in CF, and all the metrics and stats support the idea that he is great on def4ense in CF.

 

It seemed just as easy to add a SS over a sketchy CF'er. I'm trying my hardest to bash Bloom and Cora, but you Bloom brown-nosers are making it hard on me!

 

D always matters to me, but not to the extent it does to you.Would it be better to have a Mookie, or a Dewey in RF? Of course it would, but those type isn’t always available. As you know I Don’t need all the metrics, and stats to tell me who’s good enough, and who is a butcher. Story ending up having surgery messed up him moving back to SS, which I have said repeatedly I believe he was going, and now Bloom doesn’t know what to do, or how to do it.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Old Red

[mvp 78]

Bloom is just trying to convince Andrus we don't need him that much.

 

Waiting out the market to get him at a deep discount!

[mvp 78]

After watching Franchy at 1B, and Duran trying to play CF last year i don’t think it will look all that bad.

 

You say that now...

[Old Red]

Waiting out the market to get him at a deep discount!

 

For 1 yr.

[moonslav59]

B-R has Duvall listed as a LF'er/1Bman, so one can view this signing as yet another head-scratcher, but if he can do okay in CF, I guess things might work out.

 

It seems strange that defense was such a big thing, last winter, that we thought swapping out Renfroe for JBJ was worthwhile, but now we seem to have no problem putting a guy we avoiding putting in RF, like the plague, last year out there FT in 2023. Then, move a GG caliber CF'er to SS and replace him with a LF'er, put a DH-type in LF and call it a winter.

 

That being said, the line-up might look like this, and might not be so bad (on offense):

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duval CF

7. L Verdugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B

9. L McGuire C

Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Dalbec 1B/3B, (L Valdez 2B or L Duran OF)

 

My guess is we will add a middle IF'er and Duran & E Valdez will start the year in AAA.

 

 

[moonslav59]

One encouraging quote from Bloom when asked about the club’s need to add a couple of up-the-middle players, he said it “doesn’t even need to be limited to two.”

[jacksonianmarch]

Duvall is a good signing for the money, but you’re gonna count on him as a middle of the order bat. We shall see if he stays healthy enough to earn a second contract

[oldtimer]

Duvall is a good signing for the money, but you’re gonna count on him as a middle of the order bat. We shall see if he stays healthy enough to earn a second contract

 

We are adding a pro who hits for power on a relative short term basis. We shall see if he can stay healthy, but he is better than what our alternatives were.