A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

I don't see why it would be a bad signing at the projected 4/84.

 

That's almost 25% of our winter spending budget on a position maybe 5th or 6th on the highest need area list.

 

I can see thinking going light at SS as we wait for Mayer.

 

I can see going light in the OF as we wait for Rafaela, but Kike's time runs out after 2023, so I don't think we can skimp there.

 

We lost Nate, Wacha and Hill from a rotation that was already weak. That has to be a higher priority for at least one slot. (I'd say two.)

 

Our pen has at least two slots, including close or top set-up man that are higher needs than catcher.

 

I rank our needs as such:

 

1. Pitcher (SP or solid RP)

2. Pitcher (RP or SP)

3. SS

4. RF

5. Pitcher

6. Catcher

7. Pitcher (maybe #6)

8. DH

[moonslav59]

For an AAV of $21M, here's what I wondered: All-Star catcher or All-Star batter who plays the catcher position? Contreras, 30, is a career .256 hitter with an .808 OPS in the NL, with half his games at Wrigley. His 162-game average of 26 HRs, 81 RBI and .349 OBP shouldn't go down in Fenway, right? But look at his dWAR... all positive -- never one negative in seven seasons.

 

For a comp, Vazquez, 32, has a career WAR of 7.0 and dWAR of 5.3 in 733 games. Contreras has a career WAR of 20.8 and dWAR of 6.5 in 734 games.

 

I don't want Vaz back, either.

[moonslav59]

If he settles for 4/$84mill, that’s a steal. But I don’t he gets that. I’m thinking somewhere between 4/$96mill and 5/$110mill

 

I guess, if Jose Abreu gets $19.5M x 3, Contreras is worth $100M/4, but I think we need to fill our biggest need areas first, and unless our budget is over $110M, which I doubt it is, I'd pass on Contreras ar even $84M/4.

[notin]

I guess, if Jose Abreu gets $19.5M x 3, Contreras is worth $100M/4, but I think we need to fill our biggest need areas first, and unless our budget is over $110M, which I doubt it is, I'd pass on Contreras ar even $84M/4.

 

As opposed to Bogaerts at $189/7? Or even Nimmo at $110/5?

 

This team will need offense, too…

[moonslav59]

As opposed to Bogaerts at $189/7? Or even Nimmo at $110/5?

 

This team will need offense, too…

 

I've given my top Bogey offer ($160M/6 or $180M/7.) I'd try to get Swanson at $140M/6 or $160M/7, but I don't know enough about his defense to be sure about that.

 

Yes, I'd prefer to lose the draft pick and sign Nimmo at the overpay of $110M/5 than Contreras at $84M/4, It's about the same tax hit.

 

I don't think Contreras is the plus on D some might think he is. He'll probably be a DH in a year or two.

[Hugh2]

I've given my top Bogey offer ($160M/6 or $180M/7.) I'd try to get Swanson at $140M/6 or $160M/7, but I don't know enough about his defense to be sure about that.

 

Yes, I'd prefer to lose the draft pick and sign Nimmo at the overpay of $110M/5 than Contreras at $84M/4, It's about the same tax hit.

 

I don't think Contreras is the plus on D some might think he is. He'll probably be a DH in a year or two.

 

Swanson has one of the weakest arms of all the short stops in baseball. He’s a second baseman in waiting.

[notin]

Swanson has one of the weakest arms of all the short stops in baseball. He’s a second baseman in waiting.

 

He did lead the league in OAA last year.

 

The sneaky bargain if you get offense at catcher (like Contreras) is to bring in Elvis Andrus, whose glove still plays.

 

In fact, the Sox might be able to get Andrus and Contreras for not much more than Swanson and probably less than Bogaerts. And I’d rather start Contreras and Andrus over Swanson and McGuire…

[moonslav59]

Swanson has one of the weakest arms of all the short stops in baseball. He’s a second baseman in waiting.

 

Good to know.

 

I see he's 10th out of 37 SSs in DRS since 2018 but 18th in UZR/150.

 

Story is 3rd and 8th. Bogey is 31st and 11th.

[Hugh2]

Good to know.

 

I see he's 10th out of 37 SSs in DRS since 2018 but 18th in UZR/150.

 

Story is 3rd and 8th. Bogey is 31st and 11th.

 

They’re both fine at SS for a few more years, especially if they can hit. But Bogey will eventually have to move to 3B and Swanson to 2b

[Hugh2]

He did lead the league in OAA last year.

 

The sneaky bargain if you get offense at catcher (like Contreras) is to bring in Elvis Andrus, whose glove still plays.

 

In fact, the Sox might be able to get Andrus and Contreras for not much more than Swanson and probably less than Bogaerts. And I’d rather start Contreras and Andrus over Swanson and McGuire…

 

Are we going for Verlander?

[notin]

Are we going for Verlander?

 

Doubtful, but it might not be a bad idea. I mean, 3 years?

 

Still I’d much rather just extend the 3b currently the roster…

[Hugh2]

Doubtful, but it might not be a bad idea. I mean, 3 years?

 

Still I’d much rather just extend the 3b currently the roster…

 

I don’t mind your scenario and rolling the Dice with Verlander. Still have to resign Devers though, I think they may. Contrary to popular belief.

[moonslav59]

Are we going for Verlander?

 

I suggested Verlander or Scherzer, last winter.

 

If we can't go large and long, I'd rather go large and short than small and long.

[Bellhorn04]

That's almost 25% of our winter spending budget on a position maybe 5th or 6th on the highest need area list.

 

I can see thinking going light at SS as we wait for Mayer.

 

I can see going light in the OF as we wait for Rafaela, but Kike's time runs out after 2023, so I don't think we can skimp there.

 

We lost Nate, Wacha and Hill from a rotation that was already weak. That has to be a higher priority for at least one slot. (I'd say two.)

 

Our pen has at least two slots, including close or top set-up man that are higher needs than catcher.

 

I rank our needs as such:

 

1. Pitcher (SP or solid RP)

2. Pitcher (RP or SP)

3. SS

4. RF

5. Pitcher

6. Catcher

7. Pitcher (maybe #6)

8. DH

 

You have a fair point about priorities. At the same time signing Contreras, and having the catcher position looked after for a few years, would not be the worst thing.

[Bellhorn04]

I suggested Verlander or Scherzer, last winter.

 

If we can't go large and long, I'd rather go large and short than small and long.

 

Heh. Large and short AKA the Obese Dwarf of contracts, a relatively new species.

[moonslav59]

You have a fair point about priorities. At the same time signing Contreras, and having the catcher position looked after for a few years, would not be the worst thing.

 

My wish list is about 10 slots long. I'd love to have a plus hitting catcher that pulls his weight on defense. (I don't know much about Contreras' D, and I'm not sure dWAR encompasses all I value in what a catcher does behind the plate, but if the Sox think he's a plus on D, that would increase my willingness to agree on trying to sign him. I look at the Astros wanting him as a back-up for a .590 hitting catcher as a warning sign.)

 

Unless we make some 2 or 3 for 1 deals, I don't see us adding 10 players, unless we subtract 3-4 along the way (trade or DFA.)

 

To be honest, I'm growing tired of dividing each winter spending budget into 8-12 allotments. I pretty sure we have more money to spend, so we should still be able to get better quality, even if we add 10 players, but I'm ready for some top quality players.

 

The Sale, Bogey and Nate extensions doesn't feel like additions, because they weren't.

 

After the Price mega signing, we added only JD before the Story signing. Both were not over $24M/yr.

 

I'm not saying we have to spend $28M on 3 guys, but I'm dying to see us add a real stud- FA or by trade. I don't see Contreras fitting that bill, and signing him might prevent us from getting a better player. Now, if we can trade for an ace, who makes arb money, maybe we can spread the rest of the money out and add one more slot like catcher to the upgrade list.

Edited November 30, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Heh. Large and short AKA the Obese Dwarf of contracts, a relatively new species.

 

There may be a greater risk of injury or shortcomings, but it's 2-3 years not 5-8.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bad teams usually have bad pitching, but one underrated upgrade to rotations and bullpens is a good catcher. A take-charge receiver who calls a good game -- in synch with a pitcher's stuff on any given night -- is more valuable than a backstop who can hit or even throw. A catcher is also a leader on the field, and knows when situations call for a pat on the back or kick in the pants.

 

Someone who can do all those things well, of course, can turn a team around. St. Louis was always a contender with Molina; expect some regression without his stabilizing presence behind the plate. There's a reason the Yankees never won with all their "great" pitching the past decade; NY fans know why.

 

Watch Baltimore in the next few years, with a young catcher who may soon turn into AL MVP.

[Bellhorn04]

Bad teams usually have bad pitching, but one underrated upgrade to rotations and bullpens is a good catcher. A take-charge receiver who calls a good game -- in synch with a pitcher's stuff on any given night -- is more valuable than a backstop who can hit or even throw. A catcher is also a leader on the field, and knows when situations call for a pat on the back or kick in the pants.

 

Someone who can do all those things well, of course, can turn a team around. St. Louis was always a contender with Molina; expect some regression without his stabilizing presence behind the plate. There's a reason the Yankees never won with all their "great" pitching the past decade; NY fans know why.

 

Watch Baltimore in the next few years, with a young catcher who may soon turn into AL MVP.

 

Yep. Rutschman's first game was May 21. Prior to that the O's were 16-24. They went 67-55 the rest of the way.

 

Despite the late start to his rookie year, Rutschman posted a fat 5.3 fWAR and 5.2 bWAR.

[mvp 78]

He did lead the league in OAA last year.

 

The sneaky bargain if you get offense at catcher (like Contreras) is to bring in Elvis Andrus, whose glove still plays.

 

In fact, the Sox might be able to get Andrus and Contreras for not much more than Swanson and probably less than Bogaerts. And I’d rather start Contreras and Andrus over Swanson and McGuire…

 

Andrus had 3.5 fWAR last year. It was his highest wRC+ since 2017 though.

[notin]

Andrus had 3.5 fWAR last year. It was his highest wRC+ since 2017 though.

 

Also 8 OAA, second only to Swanson.

 

But Andrus won’t require a 6 year 9 figure deal…

[mvp 78]

Why not?

 

If the goal is to stay under the cap, I think there are higher priorities than filling C. They don't have anyone close enough in the org that is ready to take over as a cheap option long term at C, but I just think SS, Corner OF and SP are much higher priorities. Would the signing prevent them from filling the other needs or extending Raffy? IDK.

 

Aside from 2021, his DRS numbers aren't impressive and his framing isn't very good.

[mvp 78]

You have a fair point about priorities. At the same time signing Contreras, and having the catcher position looked after for a few years, would not be the worst thing.

 

So they sign Contreras instead of Bogey to wait on the younger SS to make it. If the younger guys don't pan out? If Raffy leaves next offseason? I'm not into it.

[mvp 78]

Bad teams usually have bad pitching, but one underrated upgrade to rotations and bullpens is a good catcher. A take-charge receiver who calls a good game -- in synch with a pitcher's stuff on any given night -- is more valuable than a backstop who can hit or even throw. A catcher is also a leader on the field, and knows when situations call for a pat on the back or kick in the pants.

 

Someone who can do all those things well, of course, can turn a team around. St. Louis was always a contender with Molina; expect some regression without his stabilizing presence behind the plate. There's a reason the Yankees never won with all their "great" pitching the past decade; NY fans know why.

 

Watch Baltimore in the next few years, with a young catcher who may soon turn into AL MVP.

 

Is that Contreras?

[notin]

If the goal is to stay under the cap, I think there are higher priorities than filling C. They don't have anyone close enough in the org that is ready to take over as a cheap option long term at C, but I just think SS, Corner OF and SP are much higher priorities. Would the signing prevent them from filling the other needs or extending Raffy? IDK.

 

Aside from 2021, his DRS numbers aren't impressive and his framing isn't very good.

 

 

If projections are any indication, Contreras is less likely to inhibit upping Devers than any of Swanson, Bogaerts , Turner and Correa…

[Hugh2]

You can do all that and still extend Devers, either reset this year, or set yourself up to reset next year and have the extension kick in this year to help lower the AAV throughout the life of the contract.

 

Won't be much, but 2 million a year will help.

[moonslav59]

Bad teams usually have bad pitching, but one underrated upgrade to rotations and bullpens is a good catcher. A take-charge receiver who calls a good game -- in synch with a pitcher's stuff on any given night -- is more valuable than a backstop who can hit or even throw. A catcher is also a leader on the field, and knows when situations call for a pat on the back or kick in the pants.

 

Someone who can do all those things well, of course, can turn a team around. St. Louis was always a contender with Molina; expect some regression without his stabilizing presence behind the plate. There's a reason the Yankees never won with all their "great" pitching the past decade; NY fans know why.

 

Watch Baltimore in the next few years, with a young catcher who may soon turn into AL MVP.

 

I've always believed a great defensive catcher, who handles the staff very well, along with a superb defensive SS greatly improves a team's chance of winning. You can win without one or maybe both, but it's very hard.

[moonslav59]

If projections are any indication, Contreras is less likely to inhibit upping Devers than any of Swanson, Bogaerts , Turner and Correa…

 

Yes, if you go cheap at SS and or RF, so we can upgrade at catcher. We probably can't sign Contreras, a top 4 SS, a decent RF'er and at least 2 solid pitchers and have enough to extend Devers.

 

I can see us going for a "bridge" SS (to Mayer), so adding someone like Contreras could be doable, but I'd rather not lose ground at SS from 2022 to 2023. The drop off will not be made up for by changing from Vaz/McGuire to Contreras/McGuire, IMO.

[Hugh2]

Yes, if you go cheap at SS and or RF, so we can upgrade at catcher. We probably can't sign Contreras, a top 4 SS, a decent RF'er and at least 2 solid pitchers and have enough to extend Devers.

 

I can see us going for a "bridge" SS (to Mayer), so adding someone like Contreras could be doable, but I'd rather not lose ground at SS from 2022 to 2023. The drop off will not be made up for by changing from Vaz/McGuire to Contreras/McGuire, IMO.

 

You can’t have all 6 of those things but you can have 5. You can do that and extend Devers. Depending on when you reset, you can structure Devers contract to either kick in this year or next.

[moonslav59]

You can’t have all 6 of those things but you can have 5. You can do that and extend Devers. Depending on when you reset, you can structure Devers contract to either kick in this year or next.

 

My problem with signing Contreras is that I think we need 3-4 solid pitching additions. I don't expect it to happen, even without a costly catcher addition, but that's my opinion.

 

SS

SP

RP

RF

RP

P

C and DH are close to the same at our 7th priority (6th tops).

 

As of now, I think McGuire/Wong at catcher is about the same as Dalbec/Hosmer/Arroyo/Refsnyder at DH.