A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Old Red]

I don't know this story. It was alluded to yesterday as well.

 

The video tells it all.

[mvp 78]

The video tells it all.

 

I'm not on his Only Fans.

[moonslav59]

I still think we should bubble wrap then shrink wrap Sale up for the winter- like they do my parent's pontoon boat.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I still think we should bubble wrap then shrink wrap Sale up for the winter- like they do my parent's pontoon boat.

 

Do their pontoons keep telling them they need to do better?

[moonslav59]

Do their pontoons keep telling them they need to do better?

 

Just start when you turn the key and have no major dings or dents.

 

He doesn't "need to do better." He just needs to play nearly every 5th day.

[notin]

I'm not on his Only Fans.

 

Why not?

[cp176]

Dingleberry Dave.

 

go phillies

[mvp 78]

Why not?

 

Too skinny for me.

[mvp 78]

go phillies

 

I liked the Phillies fine enough when I was younger. Mike Schmidt was a great player. My joke was obvious enough. I hope the Astros end up being the modern version of the 90's Braves.

[Nick]

Watched Moneyball for 75th time. Loved the trade made with David D. of Detroit.

 

Say what you will. He did get the Phillies to the World Series. Brilliant move to sign Schwarber. That would have been a no brainer for me. Hey, Bloom went OVER the magic line anyway without signing Schwarber.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Nick

[Nick]

I am 100% behind Bloom until he does NOT deliver on his promise to Kike that the team will be 'much better'.

 

And I'm not even talking about actual results. All he can do his put a team together on 'paper'. But I will see what's on HIS paper and judge.

[mvp 78]

I am 100% behind Bloom until he does NOT deliver on his promise to Kike that the team will be 'much better'.

 

And I'm not even talking about actual results. All he can do his put a team together on 'paper'. But I will see what's on HIS paper and judge.

 

Yeah, they can't suck again next year.

[mvp 78]

@CatherinVaritek

You’re officially stuck with him! Signed for the next 3 years!!

 

Looks like they extended Tek's contract. Hasn't been announced if his role will change.

[moonslav59]

Watched Moneyball for 75th time. Loved the trade made with David D. of Detroit.

 

Say what you will. He did get the Phillies to the World Series. Brilliant move to sign Schwarber. That would have been a no brainer for me. Hey, Bloom went OVER the magic line anyway without signing Schwarber.

 

The Schwarber signing looks great, but I'm still not sure, as a long term signing, he'll be a better one over Story. (Both signed within days of each other.)

[moonslav59]

I am 100% behind Bloom until he does NOT deliver on his promise to Kike that the team will be 'much better'.

 

And I'm not even talking about actual results. All he can do his put a team together on 'paper'. But I will see what's on HIS paper and judge.

 

If he can spend right up to the tax line, he should be able to assemble a better team than 2022, on paper.

 

Replacing Bogey, Wacha, Strahm, Hill and to some extent JD will not be easy, but I see this, already:

 

C- I feel the McGuire/Wong duo will be better than the 2023 Vaz-Plawecki duo.

1B- Casas, Hosmer/Dalbec > Dalbec/Cordero

2B- FT Story> PT Story

CF- FT Kike> PT Kike

RF- More Refsnyder> less Refsnyder

DH- JD and others is close to equal to Hosmer/Dalbec/Arroyo/EValdez

 

Where we need to stay even or improve, and have a lot of money to do so, are:

 

SS

SP

SP

RP

RP

RF

[mvp 78]

The Schwarber signing looks great, but I'm still not sure, as a long term signing, he'll be a better one over Story. (Both signed within days of each other.)

 

Schwarber signed for 4/79 (19.75 AAV) through age 32, 2.7 fWAR average last two seasons.

 

Story signed for 6/140 (23.33 AAV) through age 34, 2.6 fWAR average last two season.

 

For the Phillies, they are probably getting out from under Schwarber at the right time. If the contract was longer, it would be a big question mark. For now, 3 remaining years don't seem like a big issue to me.

 

Story didn't adjust well to the AL. Maybe he can turn things around. If he continues to falter, his contract could look really ugly. Being stuck with a glove first 2b in a lengthy contract like that isn't ideal.

 

Per Fangraphs' Value calculation, Kyle earned his salary last year but Story didn't.

[mvp 78]

If he can spend right up to the tax line, he should be able to assemble a better team than 2022, on paper.

 

Replacing Bogey, Wacha, Strahm, Hill and to some extent JD will not be easy, but I see this, already:

 

C- I feel the McGuire/Wong duo will be better than the 2023 Vaz-Plawecki duo.

1B- Casas, Hosmer/Dalbec > Dalbec/Cordero

2B- FT Story> PT Story

CF- FT Kike> PT Kike

RF- More Refsnyder> less Refsnyder

DH- JD and others is close to equal to Hosmer/Dalbec/Arroyo/EValdez

 

Where we need to stay even or improve, and have a lot of money to do so, are:

 

SS

SP

SP

RP

RP

RF

 

I think replacing Wacha/Hill/Strahm isn't too difficult especially since they are just probably bringing Hill back. They need to find a better replacement than just 2022 JD at DH. If that's just a cheaper rotation at DH and using the surplus cash to fund better pitching, then that's ok with me.

 

It's hard to say what the plan is at SS. My preference is Bogey, but hard to say which direction they are going to go in.

[Slasher9]

cant even recall how many times i argued with Notin that a baseball player tries harder when it matters more. his stance was that players in the MLB try just as hard every pitch spring training thru the WS. i will just leave this right here:

Diagnosing his defensive struggles in a post-game interview with Ken Rosenthal, Castellanos said his relative inconsistency in right field has everything to do with concentration, admitting it’s hard for him to stay focused during the regular season.

 

“I think that, a lot of times, I have trouble keeping attention during the regular season, every day, nine innings. But with the postseason, this kind of baseball is incredible,” said Castellanos, who went 1-for-5 with an RBI single (matching his total from the previous series) in the winning effort. “You don’t have a choice but to just be locked in, watching swings, watching the balls come off the bat, and I think that’s why I’m playing better.”

[mvp 78]

cant even recall how many times i argued with Notin that a baseball player tries harder when it matters more. his stance was that players in the MLB try just as hard every pitch spring training thru the WS. i will just leave this right here:

Diagnosing his defensive struggles in a post-game interview with Ken Rosenthal, Castellanos said his relative inconsistency in right field has everything to do with concentration, admitting it’s hard for him to stay focused during the regular season.

 

“I think that, a lot of times, I have trouble keeping attention during the regular season, every day, nine innings. But with the postseason, this kind of baseball is incredible,” said Castellanos, who went 1-for-5 with an RBI single (matching his total from the previous series) in the winning effort. “You don’t have a choice but to just be locked in, watching swings, watching the balls come off the bat, and I think that’s why I’m playing better.”

 

Castellanos has SUCKED in the postseason though.

 

56 wRC+

OPS below 600

 

His numbers are worse than his regular season numbers.

[Bellhorn04]

Schwarber signed for 4/79 (19.75 AAV) through age 32, 2.7 fWAR average last two seasons.

 

Story signed for 6/140 (23.33 AAV) through age 34, 2.6 fWAR average last two season.

 

For the Phillies, they are probably getting out from under Schwarber at the right time. If the contract was longer, it would be a big question mark. For now, 3 remaining years don't seem like a big issue to me.

 

Story didn't adjust well to the AL. Maybe he can turn things around. If he continues to falter, his contract could look really ugly. Being stuck with a glove first 2b in a lengthy contract like that isn't ideal.

 

Per Fangraphs' Value calculation, Kyle earned his salary last year but Story didn't.

 

The fact that Kyle played 155 games and Story played 94 had a pretty big impact on that, of course.

 

I'm giving Story a pass for 2022 because of the injuries.

[mvp 78]

The fact that Kyle played 155 games and Story played 94 had a pretty big impact on that, of course.

 

I'm giving Story a pass for 2022 because of the injuries.

 

No, I agree, but Story could also just be a guy that gets injuries and that's part of the contract. We can't assume he'll play 150 games a year going forward.

[Bellhorn04]

No, I agree, but Story could also just be a guy that gets injuries and that's part of the contract. We can't assume he'll play 150 games a year going forward.

 

Between 2017 and 2021 he played at least 142 games every year - 59 out of 60 in 2020.

[moonslav59]

Between 2017 and 2021 he played at least 142 games every year - 59 out of 60 in 2020.

 

Yes.

 

Getting hit in the hand by a pitch is not really a sign of fragility.

[mvp 78]

Between 2017 and 2021 he played at least 142 games every year - 59 out of 60 in 2020.

 

We'll see if that happens going forward.

[mvp 78]

Yes.

 

Getting hit in the hand by a pitch is not really a sign of fragility.

 

I can't believe that same baseball came back and hit him again in the hand in September and caused him to be out for another 20 games. Unbelievable.

 

There are guys that do get HBP and don't miss a month and a half, but alas...

[moonslav59]

The fact that Kyle played 155 games and Story played 94 had a pretty big impact on that, of course.

 

I'm giving Story a pass for 2022 because of the injuries.

 

2020-2022 Games Played:

 

327 Schwarber

295 Story

 

2017-2022

748 Schwarber

742 Story

 

Pretty close.

[moonslav59]

I can't believe that same baseball came back and hit him again in the hand in September and caused him to be out for another 20 games. Unbelievable.

 

There are guys that do get HBP and don't miss a month and a half, but alas...

 

There are different parts of the hand that can be hit.

 

Are you saying his fragility was the reason he missed more time than most do?

[Slasher9]

Castellanos has SUCKED in the postseason though.

 

56 wRC+

OPS below 600

 

His numbers are worse than his regular season numbers.

 

always offense only still i see. his quote is his quote.

[mvp 78]

always offense only still i see. his quote is his quote.

 

He can say he's trying harder, but there's no proof.

[mvp 78]

There are different parts of the hand that can be hit.

 

Are you saying his fragility was the reason he missed more time than most do?

 

It could be. Hard to say. If 2022 is a rare occurrence, than it isn't. We'll have to see. The body just also becomes more fragile as players age.