A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[dgalehouse]

My personal rules should not be imposed on other posters but ...

 

1. Emphasize ideas by avoiding use of "I" and "you" in a post.

 

2. Make an exception to pay another poster a compliment.

 

3. Avoid sarcasm

 

4. Be kind.

 

Harm , It would be a beautiful day in the neighborhood if we could all follow those rules.

[moonslav59]

My personal rules should not be imposed on other posters but ...

 

1. Emphasize ideas by avoiding use of "I" and "you" in a post.

 

2. Make an exception to pay another poster a compliment.

 

3. Avoid sarcasm

 

4. Be kind.

 

Good suggestions. Just stating something, without prefacing it with "I think..." often comes across as a statement of fact rather than opinion.

[Maxbialystock]

To me I think how you would use Whitlock most importantly would be on what the rest of the pitching staff looks like. I think most GM’s, and managers would see the importance of having a reliable back end of the BP, and what the biggest need was for the team at the time, which I think was overlooked by the Sox to start the season. I think the Red Sox would have a better record today if Whitlock, Houck, and Schreiber had been in the back end of the BP from opening day.

 

One more time. Barnes had a great half season last year and then crapped out, so the Sox basically entered the postseason without a closer.

 

And they didn't freaking need one despite beating the Yankees in the wild card, taking 3 of 4 from the 100-win Rays in the ALDS, and losing 4 of 6 to the Astros in the ALCS. The only "blown save" was by Houck in the 6th inning--not the 9th inning--in game 1 of the ALCS. Sale started and lasted just 2.2 innings.

 

I am not against closers because the Sox have made excellent use of them in the past, especially Uehara in 2013.

 

I completely disagree the Sox "overlooked" having a closer this year because they had two who had been somewhat successful in the past--Barnes and Robles. Whitlock, Houck, and Schreiber were used elsewhere this year because none of them had prior closing experience and because the Sox had more urgent pitching needs for earlier innings. Sad but true, the rules of baseball do allow teams to score runs before the 9th inning, so it behooves a manager and his pitching coach to put their best arms where they can do the most good.

 

Right now after 116 games the Sox are 2 games below .500 and definitely have a shot at the postseason despite a team ERA of 4.35, which is the next to worst ERA in the American League. And you're blaming Cora for mismanaging them and not using three of his best arms to pitch the 9th freaking inning?

[moonslav59]

When you consider some of the pitchers we've had to reach way down on the depth chart to use a s starters and RP'ers, one could say our numbers are better than expected, and ERA ain't everything, I might add. Take Brasier, for example: he's got a 5.20 ERA but one of the team's best FIP's at 3.21.

 

Anyway, check out these IP numbers from guys listed at maybe 15th to 25th on our pre-season depth chart:

Many did much better than those who went on the IL or stunk up the place.)

 

IP Pitcher ERA

65 Cutter 4.18

56 Wink 4.69

47 Schreiber 1.91

31 Danish 4.02

25 Robles 5.84

17 Bello 8.47

16 Valdez 4.41

15 Ort 9.00

11 Seabold 11.91 (actually one of the first farm hands called up: oops!)

7 DHern

3 Feliz 2.70

 

That's about 280 IP or about 27% of all IP'd by Sox pitchers!

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One more time. Barnes had a great half season last year and then crapped out, so the Sox basically entered the postseason without a closer.

 

And they didn't freaking need one despite beating the Yankees in the wild card, taking 3 of 4 from the 100-win Rays in the ALDS, and losing 4 of 6 to the Astros in the ALCS. The only "blown save" was by Houck in the 6th inning--not the 9th inning--in game 1 of the ALCS. Sale started and lasted just 2.2 innings.

 

I am not against closers because the Sox have made excellent use of them in the past, especially Uehara in 2013.

 

I completely disagree the Sox "overlooked" having a closer this year because they had two who had been somewhat successful in the past--Barnes and Robles. Whitlock, Houck, and Schreiber were used elsewhere this year because none of them had prior closing experience and because the Sox had more urgent pitching needs for earlier innings. Sad but true, the rules of baseball do allow teams to score runs before the 9th inning, so it behooves a manager and his pitching coach to put their best arms where they can do the most good.

 

Right now after 116 games the Sox are 2 games below .500 and definitely have a shot at the postseason despite a team ERA of 4.35, which is the next to worst ERA in the American League. And you're blaming Cora for mismanaging them and not using three of his best arms to pitch the 9th freaking inning?

 

Max, I know your main issue with the narrative regarding bullpens is with the designation "closer" and what constitutes "saves" and "blown saves." But I cringe every time you bring up the Sox' '21 postseason... because basically every Boston reliever failed at least once. Every game was a stressfest, even when they won:

 

Whitlock gave up a bomb to Stanton; Barnes loaded the bases in one IP vs. Tampa and wasn't used again; Robles blew a 2-run lead via HR, 2B, 2B in one IP; Houck gave up a HR to Franco; Braiser blew a 2-run lead via 2B, 2B, 1B in one IP; Houck blew 2-run lead on Altuve's 2-run HR; Robles allowed a game-losing HR to Correa; Sawamura: BB, 1B, HBP, SF in one IP; Darwinzon: 2 HRs in one IP; Whitlock blew the lead on an Altuve HR in the 8th of ALCS Gm 4... and Boston never led again; then Braiser, Robles, Taylor, Houck, and Ottavino each gave up a run or more in the last two games.

 

The bullpen was so bad that Cora had to use Eovaldi and Perez in back-end duty, and both starters also got lit up. Pivetta was a hero, but even he lucked out when Renfroe kicked Kiermaier's drive into the... yup, you know where.

 

Bottom line is that the Red Sox relief crew was not good enough to take them to the World Series, unlike Houston's, which added better arms at the deadline.

[Kimmi]

Eck is disregarding context? Wow! Like I said I’ll go with Eck’s expertise, and opinion. I would not have called out anybody if the Yankees had scored in the 8th, because Whitlock had thrown 2 innings on Friday, and wouldn’t have been available to throw 2 innings last night, but thanks for thinking I would have. Schreiber pitched two innings with a game off in between, and struggled though the second time. We have different opinions, but I’ll stick with Eck.

 

I have gone back and forth this year on whether Whitlock should be a starter or a reliever. As of now, I definitely think he needs to be in the pen, and I feel really good when he comes into the game late with a lead. Ultimately (meaning next season), I think he needs to be a starter. If he can be an effective starter, he will provide a lot more value to the team in that role.

 

That said, I remember when the Sox were considering putting Papelbon in the rotation. It was a similar situation in terms of Pap providing more value in the rotation, but I have to admit that I was very happy and relieved when they announced that he would remain the closer.

[Kimmi]

Mu primary criticism is he should have gotten outside replacements for Sale instead of depleting the bullpen. Obviously he would not have found another Sale, but I bet he could have gotten a pitcher to handle Sale’s innings…

 

Makes sense.

[moonslav59]

Makes sense.

 

I think the idea was that Wacha or Hill could carry the load until Sale and Paxton returned, and when both returned, we might move one to the pen, assuming all 6 were every healthy at the same time (fat chance). They both nearly made it, and if Sale had not broke his finger, the gaps would not have been all that great.

 

The problem was the math. You got Nate & Nick. That makes 1+1+1+1= 5. Who was going to be the 5th starter until Sale or Pivetta came back? We knew they'd both be out until min June at the very earliest, and most likely mid July to early August.

 

Had we picked up a 5th starter, or lucked onto Crawford earlier than we did, then Houck and Whitlock would have been in the pen, at least until we started seeing our rotation fall apart, all at once. (By then, Wink, Seabold and Bello were ready to give it a try, so maybe even then, they could have stayed in the pen.)

 

The pen has been fine with no additions, since Houck and Whitlock both returned, together. Not great but good enough, for the most part.

 

Losing Nate, Wacha and Hill to free agency, and Sale's health even more in question than ever before, and WTF with Paxton, anyway? I think the writing is on the wall for Whitlock to start, next year.

 

Who knows? We have a bunch of kids that may impress down the stretch and early next season: Bello, Crawford, Wink, Mata, Seabold and maybe even Murphy or Walter. German may give a nice boost to the pen, as well.

[Kimmi]

I think the idea was that Wacha or Hill could carry the load until Sale and Paxton returned, and when both returned, we might move one to the pen, assuming all 6 were every healthy at the same time (fat chance). They both nearly made it, and if Sale had not broke his finger, the gaps would not have been all that great.

 

The problem was the math. You got Nate & Nick. That makes 1+1+1+1= 5. Who was going to be the 5th starter until Sale or Pivetta came back? We knew they'd both be out until min June at the very earliest, and most likely mid July to early August.

 

Had we picked up a 5th starter, or lucked onto Crawford earlier than we did, then Houck and Whitlock would have been in the pen, at least until we started seeing our rotation fall apart, all at once. (By then, Wink, Seabold and Bello were ready to give it a try, so maybe even then, they could have stayed in the pen.)

 

The pen has been fine with no additions, since Houck and Whitlock both returned, together. Not great but good enough, for the most part.

 

Losing Nate, Wacha and Hill to free agency, and Sale's health even more in question than ever before, and WTF with Paxton, anyway? I think the writing is on the wall for Whitlock to start, next year.

 

Who knows? We have a bunch of kids that may impress down the stretch and early next season: Bello, Crawford, Wink, Mata, Seabold and maybe even Murphy or Walter. German may give a nice boost to the pen, as well.

 

I had no problems with the way that our pitching was constructed this year, either the rotation or the pen. I thought we had enough depth, but you know how that goes. The team actually covered missing Sale pretty well, IMO. It was the when the other starters got injured that we ran into trouble.

 

Who knows what's going on with Paxton? LOL We do have several young arms that give us reason to be excited.

[moonslav59]

I had no problems with the way that our pitching was constructed this year, either the rotation or the pen. I thought we had enough depth, but you know how that goes. The team actually covered missing Sale pretty well, IMO. It was the when the other starters got injured that we ran into trouble.

 

Who knows what's going on with Paxton? LOL We do have several young arms that give us reason to be excited.

 

The worst part was seeing Nate, Wacha and Hill all go out at the same time.

 

Nate: Mid June to July 15

 

Wacha: End of June to Aug 14

 

Hill: Early July to Aug 3

 

Having to go 3 deep into your farm/depth chart at the same time you were expecting Sale back, really messed everything up.

 

[Kimmi]

The worst part was seeing Nate, Wacha and Hill all go out at the same time.

 

Nate: Mid June to July 15

 

Wacha: End of June to Aug 14

 

Hill: Early July to Aug 3

 

Having to go 3 deep into your farm/depth chart at the same time you were expecting Sale back, really messed everything up.

 

 

It's extremely difficult to overcome having 80% of your projected rotation on the IL at the same time. We were fortunate with the injury bug last year. It has hit us hard this year.

[moonslav59]

It's extremely difficult to overcome having 80% of your projected rotation on the IL at the same time. We were fortunate with the injury bug last year. It has hit us hard this year.

 

That's how I see it. The Yanks got hit hard with injuries, last year, so using it as an excuse is a bit contradictory, but still, it is what it is.

[Larry Cook]

It's extremely difficult to overcome having 80% of your projected rotation on the IL at the same time. We were fortunate with the injury bug last year. It has hit us hard this year.

 

Injuries were across the board this year, starters, relievers and position players.

 

Even top minor leaguers, cassas, yorke and Mayer missed time with injuries.

 

The question has to be asked, where did we get our medical staff and trainers from….. wal-mart?

[moonslav59]

Injuries were across the board this year, starters, relievers and position players.

 

Even top minor leaguers, cassas, yorke and Mayer missed time with injuries.

 

The question has to be asked, where did we get our medical staff and trainers from….. wal-mart?

 

Family Dollar

[notin]

Injuries were across the board this year, starters, relievers and position players.

 

Even top minor leaguers, cassas, yorke and Mayer missed time with injuries.

 

The question has to be asked, where did we get our medical staff and trainers from….. wal-mart?

 

 

The Sox had 4 SP on the IL at once, and that’s without counting Paxton. And it’s the medical staff’s fault?

 

Can you really blame them for injuries to oft-injured Eovaldi? Or 42yo Rich Hill? Or even Wacha?

[jad]

Yeah blaming the FO for signing guys who end up with injuries would be like blaming them for bringing on a lot of guys with 'character' issues (I would say 'intangibles' but that's probably not the word to use here): Pham, that catcher (oops, wrong word again!), even Verdugo at the time he was signed. Think what bargains you can find among guys with 4 or 5 TJ surgeries in their pasts or a couple of years on probation.

[notin]

Yeah blaming the FO for signing guys who end up with injuries would be like blaming them for bringing on a lot of guys with 'character' issues (I would say 'intangibles' but that's probably not the word to use here): Pham, that catcher (oops, wrong word again!), even Verdugo at the time he was signed. Think what bargains you can find among guys with 4 or 5 TJ surgeries in their pasts or a couple of years on probation.

 

Who said anything about the FO?

 

I was talking about the medical staff…

[jad]

One of the useless things I learned after 40 or so years in the work-force is that complex and convoluted administrations provide their apologists cover for any decision that goes wrong, in that everyone has the ready excuse: 'That's not my department'.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One of the useless things I learned after 40 or so years in the work-force is that complex and convoluted administrations provide their apologists cover for any decision that goes wrong, in that everyone has the ready excuse: 'That's not my department'.

 

Like the "head" doctor who made me wait two hours past my appointment time to check my concussion, and when I told him I get dizzy when I look down, immediately referred me to a neck doctor.

 

After security escorted me from the large waiting room, where I advised everyone to leave while there's still time, I instead visited a neurologist... who laughed, and said my brain was misfiring, and prescribed some actual useful therapy.

[moonslav59]

The Sox had 4 SP on the IL at once, and that’s without counting Paxton. And it’s the medical staff’s fault?

 

Can you really blame them for injuries to oft-injured Eovaldi? Or 42yo Rich Hill? Or even Wacha?

 

I think expecting injuries should have been part of the plan, but no GM plans for their best 5 out of 6 starters to be on the IL at the same time. (BTW, there was talk, in March, that maybe Paxton would be ready by July/Aug, or the time Wacha came off his rehab.

[moonslav59]

One of the useless things I learned after 40 or so years in the work-force is that complex and convoluted administrations provide their apologists cover for any decision that goes wrong, in that everyone has the ready excuse: 'That's not my department'.

 

Maybe the whole obsession with going overboard to assign blame is the root of the problem.

 

I get how finding who or what went wrong enables a path to corrections, but the blame game has gotten out of hand, IMO. (Plus, as you pointed out, it's never "my fault."

[dgalehouse]

Like the "head" doctor who made me wait two hours past my appointment time to check my concussion, and when I told him I get dizzy when I look down, immediately referred me to a neck doctor.

 

After security escorted me from the large waiting room, where I advised everyone to leave while there's still time, I instead visited a neurologist... who laughed, and said my brain was misfiring, and prescribed some actual useful therapy.

 

Chris Sale told the Sox chief of medical operations , Dr. Vinnie Boombatz , that he gets dizzy when he looks down. Dr. Boombatz told him , " Don't look down."

[notin]

I think expecting injuries should have been part of the plan, but no GM plans for their best 5 out of 6 starters to be on the IL at the same time. (BTW, there was talk, in March, that maybe Paxton would be ready by July/Aug, or the time Wacha came off his rehab.

 

I was just talking about not blaming the medical staff. They don’t injure people. Blaming them is like blaming the oil companies when your car runs out of gas…

[moonslav59]

I was just talking about not blaming the medical staff. They don’t injure people. Blaming them is like blaming the oil companies when your car runs out of gas…

 

Yes, I took it that way.

 

I was just emphasizing the scope of what Bloom & Cora faced in July and early August.

 

We did get to see some good or promising things from our farm, and some not so great, but it looks like some pieces are falling back into place, and not so coincidentally, we are starting to win again- and vs good opps, to boot.

[Maxbialystock]

Max, I know your main issue with the narrative regarding bullpens is with the designation "closer" and what constitutes "saves" and "blown saves." But I cringe every time you bring up the Sox' '21 postseason... because basically every Boston reliever failed at least once. Every game was a stressfest, even when they won:

 

Whitlock gave up a bomb to Stanton; Barnes loaded the bases in one IP vs. Tampa and wasn't used again; Robles blew a 2-run lead via HR, 2B, 2B in one IP; Houck gave up a HR to Franco; Braiser blew a 2-run lead via 2B, 2B, 1B in one IP; Houck blew 2-run lead on Altuve's 2-run HR; Robles allowed a game-losing HR to Correa; Sawamura: BB, 1B, HBP, SF in one IP; Darwinzon: 2 HRs in one IP; Whitlock blew the lead on an Altuve HR in the 8th of ALCS Gm 4... and Boston never led again; then Braiser, Robles, Taylor, Houck, and Ottavino each gave up a run or more in the last two games.

 

The bullpen was so bad that Cora had to use Eovaldi and Perez in back-end duty, and both starters also got lit up. Pivetta was a hero, but even he lucked out when Renfroe kicked Kiermaier's drive into the... yup, you know where.

 

Bottom line is that the Red Sox relief crew was not good enough to take them to the World Series, unlike Houston's, which added better arms at the deadline.

 

Well said. I can't disagree the Sox bullpen for the 2021 postseason was pretty bad. But I stand by my assertion that a great closer would not have changed any game outcomes because the bullpen and/or starters gave away games before the 9th inning. Thus the only blown save was in the 6th inning of game 1 of the ALCS.

 

Should Bloom have gone after more bullpen arms last August 1? Possibly. But I also kind of liked picking up Schwarber and Iglesias. I also liked getting to the ALCS after finishing 8 games back of the Rays.

[moonslav59]

Well said. I can't disagree the Sox bullpen for the 2021 postseason was pretty bad. But I stand by my assertion that a great closer would not have changed any game outcomes because the bullpen and/or starters gave away games before the 9th inning. Thus the only blown save was in the 6th inning of game 1 of the ALCS.

 

Should Bloom have gone after more bullpen arms last August 1? Possibly. But I also kind of liked picking up Schwarber and Iglesias. I also liked getting to the ALCS after finishing 8 games back of the Rays.

 

Just because there was one series, where our pen sucked, but did not blow any games, doesn't mean a closer is not important or very important.

 

Maybe others are blowing the closer impact out of proportion does not mean undervaluing the role is the right position to hold.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well said. I can't disagree the Sox bullpen for the 2021 postseason was pretty bad. But I stand by my assertion that a great closer would not have changed any game outcomes because the bullpen and/or starters gave away games before the 9th inning. Thus the only blown save was in the 6th inning of game 1 of the ALCS.

 

Should Bloom have gone after more bullpen arms last August 1? Possibly. But I also kind of liked picking up Schwarber and Iglesias. I also liked getting to the ALCS after finishing 8 games back of the Rays.

 

We all loved Schwarber's power and sure missed him this year. I'm also with you on Iglesias, an underrated from the '21 playoff push. He stuck around and cheered when disqualified from the postseason, and reportedly helped coach Arroyo on a key bunt vs. Tampa.

 

That's the kind of dugout/clubhouse veteran no analytics can measure. I would welcome Iglesias back to Boston as the fill-in shortstop, and retain him as a mentor when the Mayer Era arrives...

[moonslav59]

We all loved Schwarber's power and sure missed him this year. I'm also with you on Iglesias, an underrated from the '21 playoff push. He stuck around and cheered when disqualified from the postseason, and reportedly helped coach Arroyo on a key bunt vs. Tampa.

 

That's the kind of dugout/clubhouse veteran no analytics can measure. I would welcome Iglesias back to Boston as the fill-in shortstop, and retain him as a mentor when the Mayer Era arrives...

 

His defense has really declined, in recent years.

[Hugh2]

I don’t care how highly someone is ranked, I don’t think any team should ever be put together with prospects below AA in mind.

 

You can trade guys, and guys can switch positions. I’d be more than ok with either a Bogaerts resign or a Correa/Story upgrade.

[moonslav59]

I don’t care how highly someone is ranked, I don’t think any team should ever be put together with prospects below AA in mind.

 

You can trade guys, and guys can switch positions. I’d be more than ok with either a Bogaerts resign or a Correa/Story upgrade.

 

Even AA & AAA.

 

I can see avoiding signing a player, long term, to play a position where you have a blue-chipper in AA or AAA, but even then, a position change or trade is always available, if there is a bottleneck.