A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[notin]

They could easily finish second in the division.

 

Seems like the kid catcher has really given them a boost.

 

But they were sellers at the deadline…

[Bellhorn04]

But they were sellers at the deadline…

 

Feels strange to say, but it seems like they played it smart.

[dgalehouse]

The Red Sox postseason odds are 16.9 percent at FanGraphs, 14 percent at FiveThirtyEight and 3.2 percent at Baseball Prospectus.

 

It's an uphill climb.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-mlb-predictions/

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022.shtml

 

I tried to get a bet down on the Sox at those odds with my local gambling impresario , Paul " Needlenose " Minagge. Old Needlenose just laughed , uttered a few choice words ( which I won't repeat here ) and walked away.

[notin]

Feels strange to say, but it seems like they played it smart.

 

They’ve had a lot of things go right.

 

On fire for two months, but how many people can name their closer? Or 3 of their SP?

[moonslav59]

Feels strange to say, but it seems like they played it smart.

 

People just looked at Vaz being traded and lept to the conclusion we were giving up. In many ways, we were "buyers and sellers," something I suggested was a real possibility. In a rather remarkable way, the Sox seemed to get better for 2022 and beyond, at the same time.

 

Catcher: looks like they got worse for 2 months of 2022 but better or deeper for 2023 and 2024. Giving up Diekman, alone, was a plus, by itself.

 

1B: They improved immensely in 2022, at no financial cost. They improved in 2023 and 2024, at least in 1B depth and choices. They gave up Groome, so the future might have taken a hit, if he amounts to anything.

 

OF: Pham was certainly an improvement for 2022, and he has an option for 2023: win-win. Who the PTBNL is might hurt the long term.

 

Farm: We lost Groome, who might not have been protected, next year, anyway and the PTBNL for Pham. We added Valdez, Abreu and Almonte- all doing very well, this year:

 

Enmauel Valdez 1.017 OPS in 2022

1.043 AAA WOR (29 AB)

.907 AAA Sugar Land (159 AB)

1.112 AA (168 ABs)

25 HRs and 89 RBI in just 458 ABs

 

Wilyer Abreu .842 in '22

.858 AA CC (329 ABs)

.648 AA POR (27 ABs)

15 HRs and 56 RBI in 356 ABs

 

Abraham Almonte .942 in '22

.1.037 AAA WOR (56)

.913 AAA NAS (184)

 

I'd say the future looks much brighter, while the here and now is, at worst, the same.

 

For this, not surprisingly, Bloom has taken a lot of criticism, mostly from fans who have bashed this team as being losers almost from day one. Again, not surprisingly.

[Bellhorn04]

Brasier has a 5.32 ERA but a 3.21 FIP.

 

He continues to get the ball in key situations.

 

I guess management does pay attention to FIP.

[moonslav59]

Brasier has a 5.32 ERA but a 3.21 FIP.

 

He continues to get the ball in key situations.

 

I guess management does pay attention to FIP.

 

Or, some similar data/metric, perhaps of their own.

[Larry Cook]

Or, some similar data/metric, perhaps of their own.

 

I believe they have their own internal metrics that they have developed. I think it involves types of pitches thrown and spin rate and predicted outcomes.

 

I think the flaw in their system is not accounting for pitchers that miss their spots or do not execute the pitches properly, which has cost us 23 games this season!

[harmony]

Brasier has a 5.32 ERA but a 3.21 FIP.

 

He continues to get the ball in key situations.

 

I guess management does pay attention to FIP.

 

Veteran reliever Jeurys Familia to the rescue:

 

[dgalehouse]

Whatever system they are using for constructing a bullpen should probably be reevaluated.

[Larry Cook]

Whatever system they are using for constructing a bullpen should probably be reevaluated.

 

Amen brother!

 

Except for drafting pitchers, bullpen building is the second biggest failure of the hang’em Chaim era.

[moonslav59]

Whatever system they are using for constructing a bullpen should probably be reevaluated.

 

Nice to see you supporting all or players, No throwing anyone specific under the bus.

 

Thank you for your optimism.

[notin]

Nice to see you supporting all or players, No throwing anyone specific under the bus.

 

Thank you for your optimism.

 

To be fair, that jab was at a system.

 

Of course, they did probably use a similar system in 2021 and the bullpen was extremely good that year…

[oldtimer]

People just looked at Vaz being traded and lept to the conclusion we were giving up. In many ways, we were "buyers and sellers," something I suggested was a real possibility. In a rather remarkable way, the Sox seemed to get better for 2022 and beyond, at the same time.

 

Catcher: looks like they got worse for 2 months of 2022 but better or deeper for 2023 and 2024. Giving up Diekman, alone, was a plus, by itself.

 

1B: They improved immensely in 2022, at no financial cost. They improved in 2023 and 2024, at least in 1B depth and choices. They gave up Groome, so the future might have taken a hit, if he amounts to anything.

 

OF: Pham was certainly an improvement for 2022, and he has an option for 2023: win-win. Who the PTBNL is might hurt the long term.

 

Farm: We lost Groome, who might not have been protected, next year, anyway and the PTBNL for Pham. We added Valdez, Abreu and Almonte- all doing very well, this year:

 

Enmauel Valdez 1.017 OPS in 2022

1.043 AAA WOR (29 AB)

.907 AAA Sugar Land (159 AB)

1.112 AA (168 ABs)

25 HRs and 89 RBI in just 458 ABs

 

Wilyer Abreu .842 in '22

.858 AA CC (329 ABs)

.648 AA POR (27 ABs)

15 HRs and 56 RBI in 356 ABs

 

Abraham Almonte .942 in '22

.1.037 AAA WOR (56)

.913 AAA NAS (184)

 

I'd say the future looks much brighter, while the here and now is, at worst, the same.

 

For this, not surprisingly, Bloom has taken a lot of criticism, mostly from fans who have bashed this team as being losers almost from day one. Again, not surprisingly.

 

Don't forget, we also DFA'd JBJ. another addition by subtraction. We are still in last place and have little starting pitching depth and are also limited by too few reliable BP pieces. To make a late run, we seemingly would need more than we presently have. It has been commented that we were trying to trade both Eovaldi and JDM but our asking price for those rentals was too high for those teams considering taking those players.

 

2023 still looks like a year that we can move toward Bloom's goal provided he doesn't make trades like JBJ and prospects for Renfroe. You have outline our needs before.

 

They remain as follows:

1. Quality CF

2. 1st base improvement possibly Casas with Hosmer in a backup and DH position which should also help with durability.

3. Do we even bother to sign a mashing DH. The assumption is JDM is gone.

4. SS is an if because of Bogey. Will we really make a value offer that will keep him and will we transition Story to SS and Xander to 2nd.

5. Will we find a front line catcher or even resign Vazquez?

6. I assume we will resign Pham and keep Verdugo

6. Our utility players should include Arroyo who is good enough to start but has a history of injuries. Do we use Refsnyder or Duran as our utility outfielder. Could we rotate DH designees as our third utility pllayer.

 

Pitching:

7. With Sale's ability to hold an ace or #2 role, it appears we need an Ace to go along with Pivetta, Crawford, Winkowski and Bello. Is either Whitlock or Houck in the mix?

8. The BP has many question marks. Can we hope for any resurgence from Barnes. Will Brasier defy odds and return. Schreiber looks to be a solid piece. Is Seabold a starter or reliever. Whitlock and Houck may both, or either one land in the BP. Josh Taylor would be a plus lefty if he can recover. Then there are Murphy, Walter, Ward, Mata and others. Almost too many to keep. So who d we have now that will disappear and will new great hopes like Familia surprise? One has to wonder about Sawamura and DHern. I would hope that Bloom makes a significant move and gets another front line closer and then adjusts down from our current plethora of questionable performers.

 

We will see if Bloom will really make significant moves at the winter meetings this year after making few ripples during the last two. Lots of holes to fill so get with it is my advice.

[notin]

Veteran reliever Jeurys Familia to the rescue:

 

 

Well we already tried Jenrry Mejia. Let’s give another member of that 2015 Mets’ bullpen a shot. If Familia flops, maybe Bloom has Bobby Parnell’s phone number…

[harmony]

Well we already tried Jenrry Mejia. Let’s give another member of that 2015 Mets’ bullpen a shot. If Familia flops, maybe Bloom has Bobby Parnell’s phone number…

Let's not forget that righthander Hansel Robles made 57 relief appearances for the 2015 New York Mets:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robleha01.shtml

[Bellhorn04]

Let's not forget that righthander Hansel Robles made 57 relief appearances for the 2015 New York Mets:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robleha01.shtml

 

Plus we have Hosmer, so a lot of guys from that year's World Series teams.

[oldtimer]

Chalk up another loss in a game that we had a read chance of winning. Just the degree of ineptness we demonstrated can't be there on a team that needs to play it's best ball to have a chance.

[Larry Cook]

Chalk up another loss in a game that we had a read chance of winning. Just the degree of ineptness we demonstrated can't be there on a team that needs to play it's best ball to have a chance.

 

Devers needs to start hitting again!

[moonslav59]

Kinda hard for a team to get on track when just about every player is having a worse season than last year.

 

Improved OPS:

.890>.941 Devers

.659>.759 Vaz (traded)

.497> .660 Cordero

 

Declining OPS:

.867>.789 JD

.863>.826 Bogey

.792>.649 Dalbec

.786>.613 Kike

.777>.709 Dugo

.769>.746 Arroyo

.737>.480 Plawecki

 

How about the pitching? (ERA-)

 

Improved:

78>77 Houck

 

Declining:

33>130 Brasier

43>74 Whitlock

67>80 Sawamura

70>78 Sale

74>529 DHern

75> n/a Taylor

79>143 Robles

83>102 Nate

84>165 Barnes

100> 111 Pivetta

107>115 A Davis

 

It's hard to have hope these trends will turn on a dime, and most of these guys will return to 2021 form. It's not just that almost everyone declined, but look by how much many declined by.

 

Now, look at dropped/added players:

2021:

.957 Schwarber

.915 Iggy

.816 Renfroe

.643 Arauz

.597 Santana

.567 Marwin

.548 Chavis

 

2022:

.967 McGuire

.885 Refsnyder

,784 Pham

.713 Story

.687 Hosmer

.578 JBJ

 

Pitching:

2021

82 Rios

93 Ottavino

105 ERod

108 Richards

133 Andriese

145 Brice

335 Peacock

386 Weber

795 Brewer

 

2022

43 Scheiber

66 Wacha

88 Strahm

104 Diekman

105 Crawford

115 Winckowski

116 Hill

Edited August 14, 2022 by moonslav59

[jad]

I don't understand how they could have declined collectively when the morale on the team is so obviously sky-high and each guy is confident that management has their back.

[Old Red]

I don't understand how they could have declined collectively when the morale on the team is so obviously sky-high and each guy is confident that management has their back.

 

I think morale on the team all season has been low starting with Bloom’s lowball contract offer to Raffy, and Bogey, and getting off to that great 10-19 start.

[redsoxrules]

I think morale on the team all season has been low starting with Bloom’s lowball contract offer to Raffy, and Bogey, and getting off to that great 10-19 start.

 

The questionable trades and pick ups haven't helped either

[Old Red]

The questionable trades and pick ups haven't helped either

 

All in all it starts, and stops with Bloom.

[Elktonnick]

All in all it starts, and stops with Bloom.

Watching this team play, one can see morale and spirit slowly drain game after game. Bloom has sapped all the joy. The players knew the front office effectively abandoned them in spring training when there was no real effort to replace Renfroe and Shwarber's bats and no serious effort to shore up the back end of the bullpen.

Supposedly Bloom wanted Pham and could have had him before the season but did not move on the deal, why?

[Bellhorn04]

Watching this team play, one can see morale and spirit slowly drain game after game.

 

I don't know, they seemed to play pretty hard the last 3 games.

[moonslav59]

Watching this team play, one can see morale and spirit slowly drain game after game. Bloom has sapped all the joy. The players knew the front office effectively abandoned them in spring training when there was no real effort to replace Renfroe and Shwarber's bats and no serious effort to shore up the back end of the bullpen.

Supposedly Bloom wanted Pham and could have had him before the season but did not move on the deal, why?

 

Adding Story was "no real effort" to replace at least one of the two big bats we lost? And, by the way, both Renfroe and Schwarber were Bloom additions, in the first place.

Edited August 14, 2022 by moonslav59

[Elktonnick]

I don't know, they seemed to play pretty hard the last 3 games.

Last night:

Devers played poorly as did Bogey who made a bone headed base running move. JD looked like Robbie the Robot at the plate. The new guys are the ones showing life which is to be expected playing in their first Yankees Red Sox series. The only pre deadline Sox who showed any life wss Verdugo.

They may show sparks now and then but collectively this a disheartened group Even Cora is beginning to show the signs of despair. He looks like crap on TV.

[Elktonnick]

Adding Story was "no real effort" to replace at least one of the two big bats we lost, and by the way, both Renfroe and Schwarber were Bloom additions, in the first place.

Story was a Bogey insurance policy who quite frankly has shown to be a streaky hitter. Re Renfroe et al, So what that Bloom got them last year, he let them leave this year.

[moonslav59]

Story was a Bogey insurance policy who quite frankly has shown to be a streaky hitter. Re Renfroe et al, So what that Bloom got them last year, he let them leave this year.

 

Schwarber and Renfroe had shown to be streaky hitters, too.

 

The Story addition was a legitimate attempt to replace one of the departing big bats. Just because he was also Bogey insurance, does not mean he doesn't count.