A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It was odd to trade Vazquez but Eovaldi or Martinez. But:

 

1. Was anyone interested in meeting Bloom’s price? Or interested at all? For all the wild flurry of moves that happen at the deadline each year, the fact is the majority of trade candidates with expiring contracts stay put.

 

2. Neither Eovaldi nor Martinez have been particularly good this year. Vazquez was a far more desirable candidate.

 

3. Maybe much like with Bogaerts, the goal wasn’t so much to unload them but to keep players the Sox want to negotiate with. (I hope not. I see very little worth bringing back.)

 

Again, I think the Sox are better now -- on line-up cards -- than before the deadline. Q: can Bloom offer Eovaldi a qualifying offer, thus basically guaranteeing a draft pick? Maybe the straddling-the-fence strategy was to see if they could stay competitive through October, then get something back next summer that they trusted more from their own evaluators, rather than take what was being offered in trade at this deadline.

[notin]

Again, I think the Sox are better now -- on line-up cards -- than before the deadline. Q: can Bloom offer Eovaldi a qualifying offer, thus basically guaranteeing a draft pick? Maybe the straddling-the-fence strategy was to see if they could stay competitive through October, then get something back next summer that they trusted more from their own evaluators, rather than take what was being offered in trade at this deadline.

 

 

Without checking out the new CBA, I would think Bloom could offer Eovaldi a draft pick. Would Nate accept? He shouldn’t, but that doesn’t mean he won’t.

 

And if he accepted, as much as I don’t like him this year, I would be more inclined to be receptive of him on a one year deal…

[Old Red]

Again, I think the Sox are better now -- on line-up cards -- than before the deadline. Q: can Bloom offer Eovaldi a qualifying offer, thus basically guaranteeing a draft pick? Maybe the straddling-the-fence strategy was to see if they could stay competitive through October, then get something back next summer that they trusted more from their own evaluators, rather than take what was being offered in trade at this deadline.

I think the straddling-the-fence strategy had more to do with JH fearing more wrath than they actually got would come down on the team with a complete fire sale, which they really wanted to do.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh I’m sure some of the criticisms reach those levels.

 

Schwarber appears to be the actual biggest loss from the 2021 team. Much more so than the largely fungible Renfroe, who seems to be an annual non-tender candidate. Small market Milwaukee will have an uncomfortable decision to make themselves. (Renfroe makes $7.6 mill this year and is looking at a $10-12 mill salary in 2023. Christian Yelich, at $26mill, is the only Brewer making more than $8.5mill.)

 

fWAR says:

 

Schwarber 1.6

Renfroe 1.3

 

Neither are really having great seasons, but acceptable.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the straddling-the-fence strategy had more to do with JH fearing more wrath than they actually got would come down on the team with a complete fire sale, which they really wanted to do.

 

I think that's very possible, yes.

[moonslav59]

Again, I think the Sox are better now -- on line-up cards -- than before the deadline. Q: can Bloom offer Eovaldi a qualifying offer, thus basically guaranteeing a draft pick? Maybe the straddling-the-fence strategy was to see if they could stay competitive through October, then get something back next summer that they trusted more from their own evaluators, rather than take what was being offered in trade at this deadline.

 

I think Nate takes a QO. He would hope he has a good 2023 and then makes more in 2024 and beyond.

 

I do think they offer him a QO. JD is more doubtful, but one year deals are easier to swallow.

 

Question: if Bogey opts out, can they offer him a QO?

[oldtimer]

Again, I think the Sox are better now -- on line-up cards -- than before the deadline. Q: can Bloom offer Eovaldi a qualifying offer, thus basically guaranteeing a draft pick? Maybe the straddling-the-fence strategy was to see if they could stay competitive through October, then get something back next summer that they trusted more from their own evaluators, rather than take what was being offered in trade at this deadline.[/quotetp]

 

The Sox may be marginally better on the lineup card following the trade deadline, but if you look at them relative to the major contending teams, we are worse. What's more, we have to play a very difficult schedule which will likely put us more deeply into last place. We have some building blocks so in my opinion we keep those while purging the team of players ulikely to help us going forward. JDM and Eovaldi should have been traded at the deadline.

[Hitch]

I think Nate takes a QO. He would hope he has a good 2023 and then makes more in 2024 and beyond.

 

I do think they offer him a QO. JD is more doubtful, but one year deals are easier to swallow.

 

Question: if Bogey opts out, can they offer him a QO?

 

Yeah Bogey can get one.

 

All three will get one. JD and Nate may well take it.

[mvp 78]

I think the straddling-the-fence strategy had more to do with JH fearing more wrath than they actually got would come down on the team with a complete fire sale, which they really wanted to do.

 

Should have traded all expiring deals, yes.

[Hugh2]

I get the philosophy of buying and selling, what I don't get is not getting any bullpen help. If you're only getting marginally better while everyone else is getting much better you're effectively getting worse. I would have sat all expiring contract guys down, told them this team isn't going to make it and we're selling you to a contender, we love you and we value you and we are going to make a serious run at bringing you back next year (really just X and CV), and if you don't come back Ces't la vie Boston will always have a love for you blah blah blah.

 

Tank for that #1 pick, which we don't have to be the worse team in the league to get anymore with the new lottery system next year.

 

They also could have reset the luxury tax limit, and with a ton of cash to spend next year and a farm system that has been built back up again the Sox have all the ammunition to fill in the holes and build a legit contending team next year.

[Hugh2]

Yeah Bogey can get one.

 

All three will get one. JD and Nate may well take it.

 

I think I wouldn't mind Nate taking it, Sox need to bolster their rotation and they can't afford another hole in it. JDM, I'm not so certain, but on the other hand the Sox don't need another hole in their lineup either.

[Hugh2]

What the Sox need to contend is more depth in the bullpen and good relievers who can pitch frequently which is why I think Whitlock has to go to the rotation.

 

They also need a CFer, really really need a good centerfielder. Duran is not the guy, the Red Sox effectively have three left fielders starting in the outfield right now and that's not good.

 

Now they really need a catcher as well, actually, they're going to need two. I think Wong/McGuire can be an upgrade for the #2 catching slot over plawecki but they need to replace CV, either by resigning Christian Vasquez or by signing Wilson Contreras. Anything short of those two guys is not good.

 

What they need next year is effectively this.

 

CF

RF

DH

1B

C

RP

SP2

 

I think you can fit 1 or 2 of those holes internally, Hosmer should be fine until Casas is ready and he may be good to go to start the year. I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox make a run at Judge, resign Bogaerts, sign one of Contreras or Vasquez and trade for some pitching. There are some intriguing options on the market for starting pitchers, some ACE caliber guys who might come a little cheaper due to injury and age, if you want to take a chance at these guys bouncing back you could make a run at Kershaw/DeGrom, I also like Nola as well buy he will likely cost more. I'm not opposed to trading for a pitcher, but if you're expecting an ACE caliber guy to come back be prepared to give up 2 of our top 5 prospects +++ Teams are going to want Mayer plus. Now if you go after a guy who has one year left on his contract the cost should be less. Think of the Mookie Betts trade.

 

The argument in defense of the Sox the last couple years have been being up against the Luxury tax and having a depleted farm system, both those factors are gone this offseason.....so it's going to be interesting to see what they do.

[Elktonnick]

What the Sox need to contend is more depth in the bullpen and good relievers who can pitch frequently which is why I think Whitlock has to go to the rotation.

 

They also need a CFer, really really need a good centerfielder. Duran is not the guy, the Red Sox effectively have three left fielders starting in the outfield right now and that's not good.

 

Now they really need a catcher as well, actually, they're going to need two. I think Wong/McGuire can be an upgrade for the #2 catching slot over plawecki but they need to replace CV, either by resigning Christian Vasquez or by signing Wilson Contreras. Anything short of those two guys is not good.

 

What they need next year is effectively this.

 

CF

RF

DH

1B

C

RP

SP2

 

I think you can fit 1 or 2 of those holes internally, Hosmer should be fine until Casas is ready and he may be good to go to start the year. I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox make a run at Judge, resign Bogaerts, sign one of Contreras or Vasquez and trade for some pitching. There are some intriguing options on the market for starting pitchers, some ACE caliber guys who might come a little cheaper due to injury and age, if you want to take a chance at these guys bouncing back you could make a run at Kershaw/DeGrom, I also like Nola as well buy he will likely cost more. I'm not opposed to trading for a pitcher, but if you're expecting an ACE caliber guy to come back be prepared to give up 2 of our top 5 prospects +++ Teams are going to want Mayer plus. Now if you go after a guy who has one year left on his contract the cost should be less. Think of the Mookie Betts trade.

 

The argument in defense of the Sox the last couple years have been being up against the Luxury tax and having a depleted farm system, both those factors are gone this offseason.....so it's going to be interesting to see what they do.

I think Bogey opts out and signs elsewhere. If Bogey goes then Raffy goes as soon as he is able. I think Bloom has alienated those two and probably a few others in that clubhouse. IMO

Edited August 8, 2022 by Elktonnick

[Bellhorn04]

I get the philosophy of buying and selling, what I don't get is not getting any bullpen help. If you're only getting marginally better while everyone else is getting much better you're effectively getting worse. I would have sat all expiring contract guys down, told them this team isn't going to make it and we're selling you to a contender, we love you and we value you and we are going to make a serious run at bringing you back next year (really just X and CV), and if you don't come back Ces't la vie Boston will always have a love for you blah blah blah.

 

Tank for that #1 pick, which we don't have to be the worse team in the league to get anymore with the new lottery system next year.

 

They also could have reset the luxury tax limit, and with a ton of cash to spend next year and a farm system that has been built back up again the Sox have all the ammunition to fill in the holes and build a legit contending team next year.

 

It's possible that's what Bloom wanted to do but the owners vetoed it, for PR reasons.

[moonslav59]

It's possible that's what Bloom wanted to do but the owners vetoed it, for PR reasons.

 

This could also be why there seems to be "no plan" to some posters.

 

Bloom gets the blame if they had sold, sold, sold, and he gets the blame for playing it "halfway."

 

We were never going to go ""all-in" as some fans & posters seemed to want, and playing it halfway was some weak attempt to halfway appease them while mildly making our future brighter.

[Hugh2]

I think Bogey opts out and signs elsewhere. If Bogey goes then Raffy goes as soon as he is able. I think Bloom has alienated those two and probably a few others in that clubhouse. IMO

 

If that truly is the case, then we should have traded Bogaerts, and should trade Devers this offseason.

[Hugh2]

It's possible that's what Bloom wanted to do but the owners vetoed it, for PR reasons.

 

I have a hard time believing that Bloom and ownership weren't on the same page leading up to the deadline. I'm not saying you're wrong, not at all, who knows.....but if that's the case that's on ownership. If anyone here can imagine having a job where your mandate is changed when you're right in the middle of a project you can realize how impossible it makes it to do a good job.

[moonslav59]

If that truly is the case, then we should have traded Bogaerts, and should trade Devers this offseason.

 

He has a no trade clause, but one has to wonder, if we had approached him the right way, he might have okay'd a trade to some select teams.

[moonslav59]

I have a hard time believing that Bloom and ownership weren't on the same page leading up to the deadline. I'm not saying you're wrong, not at all, who knows.....but if that's the case that's on ownership. If anyone here can imagine having a job where your mandate is changed when you're right in the middle of a project you can realize how impossible it makes it to do a good job.

 

I don't think his point indicates the mandate changed. I think all sides knew the competing aspects involved in planning from the start. Coming to a consensus, if that is what happened, does not always mean everyone agreed on every point of the final deadline plan.

[Hugh2]

He has a no trade clause, but one has to wonder, if we had approached him the right way, he might have okay'd a trade to some select teams.

 

I have no idea what the statistics are, but it seems that no-trade clauses are almost never exercised. Or perhaps, behind the scenes what we don't see is player x saying "yeah I'm not going there, trade me somewhere else". I have a hard time believing most players say not to go to a contender for 1/2 a season when their team is in the gutter.

[Elktonnick]

If that truly is the case, then we should have traded Bogaerts, and should trade Devers this offseason.

 

It was the deadline deals that alienated both.

 

One of the unspoken weaknesses of the Tampa Bay approach to team construction and management is the Rays keep no star players. There is no one for the fans to root for. The Rays can get away with it because they will only attract 15000 to a game regardless how good their team is.

Trading Bogey and Devers the only big name ball players on the current roster without big name replacements condemns the Sox to Tampa Bay like attendance.

[Hugh2]

It was the deadline deals that alienated both.

 

One of the unspoken weaknesses of the Tampa Bay approach to team construction and management is the Rays keep no star players. There is no one for the fans to root for. The Rays can get away with it because they will only attract 15000 to a game regardless how good their team is.

Trading Bogey and Devers the only big name ball players on the current roster without big name replacements condemns the Sox to Tampa Bay like attendance.

 

 

And yet the Red Sox average more than double the Tampa payroll year after year. I agree, you have to keep some guys, otherwise why would anyone ever want to invest in a jersey? But if you know they're not going to resign then why wouldn't you trade them if you know you're going nowhere this year (Bogaerts at least)?

 

This is for arguments sake, I think there's a decent chance Bogaerts resigns here.

[notin]

It was the deadline deals that alienated both.

 

One of the unspoken weaknesses of the Tampa Bay approach to team construction and management is the Rays keep no star players. There is no one for the fans to root for. The Rays can get away with it because they will only attract 15000 to a game regardless how good their team is.

Trading Bogey and Devers the only big name ball players on the current roster without big name replacements condemns the Sox to Tampa Bay like attendance.

 

So Wander Franco didn’t sign that mega-contract?

[Bellhorn04]

I have a hard time believing that Bloom and ownership weren't on the same page leading up to the deadline. I'm not saying you're wrong, not at all, who knows.....but if that's the case that's on ownership. If anyone here can imagine having a job where your mandate is changed when you're right in the middle of a project you can realize how impossible it makes it to do a good job.

 

But I think part of Bloom's mandate was making the playoffs this year.

 

Plus Sam Kennedy had already come close to saying there was not going to be a fire sale, and they told Bogey he wasn't going to be traded.

[Bellhorn04]

I have no idea what the statistics are, but it seems that no-trade clauses are almost never exercised. Or perhaps, behind the scenes what we don't see is player x saying "yeah I'm not going there, trade me somewhere else". I have a hard time believing most players say not to go to a contender for 1/2 a season when their team is in the gutter.

 

We just saw Hosmer use his partial no-trade to be diverted from Washington to Boston.

[Hugh2]

We just saw Hosmer use his partial no-trade to be diverted from Washington to Boston.

 

I didn't say it doesn't happen, I'm just sayign it doesn't really stop players from being traded.....Hosmer was after all traded still.

[Hugh2]

But I think part of Bloom's mandate was making the playoffs this year.

 

Plus Sam Kennedy had already come close to saying there was not going to be a fire sale, and they told Bogey he wasn't going to be traded.

 

There has to be some gap between what we know, and what they know. I have a very hard time believing that Bloom is ever operating without the approval or under the guidance of Ownership. In other words, I don't believe Bloom wanted a full-scale firesale with ownership completely in the dark and then John Henry came in and said "no don't do this" right in the middle of the trade deadline. I'm not going to say I know exactly what was up, but I don't believe there's that lack of communication between Bloom and the F.O. If there was he would have been fired last year.

[Bellhorn04]

There has to be some gap between what we know, and what they know. I have a very hard time believing that Bloom is ever operating without the approval or under the guidance of Ownership. In other words, I don't believe Bloom wanted a full-scale firesale with ownership completely in the dark and then John Henry came in and said "no don't do this" right in the middle of the trade deadline. I'm not going to say I know exactly what was up, but I don't believe there's that lack of communication between Bloom and the F.O. If there was he would have been fired last year.

 

I think you're probably right.

[notin]

There has to be some gap between what we know, and what they know. I have a very hard time believing that Bloom is ever operating without the approval or under the guidance of Ownership. In other words, I don't believe Bloom wanted a full-scale firesale with ownership completely in the dark and then John Henry came in and said "no don't do this" right in the middle of the trade deadline. I'm not going to say I know exactly what was up, but I don't believe there's that lack of communication between Bloom and the F.O. If there was he would have been fired last year.

 

I think the gap between what we know and they know is massive.

 

For all we know, maybe the Sox FO knows something about Bogaerts that strongly indicates why he would be a horrible extension…

[notin]

We just saw Hosmer use his partial no-trade to be diverted from Washington to Boston.

 

Stanton blocked trades to the Cardinals and Giants before relenting to be dealt to the Yankees…