Fire Bloom .

[Bellhorn04]

True, but he was good enough to play in our OF for years before now.

 

Sure, but he didn't top 2 fWAR in a season until last year. He's been roughly an average player.

[moonslav59]

Sure, but he didn't top 2 fWAR in a season until last year. He's been roughly an average player.

 

True, but he did have an fWAR season of 1.5 and 1.9, too, and our OF has had some below average players for a few years.

 

He's a very good fielder and much cheaper than JBJ.

[moonslav59]

Oh i think that he is actually behind all of those guys at this point including Walter but what is the kid 23? He is a big strong left hander. I don't think that he gets counted out just yet.

 

Agreed, and until yesterday, he was strengthening his profile.

[Nick]

Pedey, in his first 144 at bats, hit around .190 with OPS of .560 or so. (2006 and April of 2007).

 

Not at all comparing Cordero to Pedey but Cordero in 2021 hit .189/.497 in 127 AB. It takes some for time to get going.

 

He's athletic, physical, can play multiple positions (1B, LF, RF). Spare me how bad he is at 1B. 99% of us had Devers playing 1B AFTER 4 seasons or so at 3B.

 

There's no more talk of switching positions for Devers. We all know Casas is coming at some point.

 

I'm rooting for both Dalbec and Cordero. My eyes tell me they have higher ceiling than say Arroyo. Just my opinion.

 

I also think Winckowski will return at some point. He's got good stuff. Let's hope it was just the 'ball' issue.

[Bellhorn04]

True, but he did have an fWAR season of 1.5 and 1.9, too, and our OF has had some below average players for a few years.

 

He's a very good fielder and much cheaper than JBJ.

 

Just to be clear, an average player is about 2 fWAR over 162 games.

 

As for price, Margot is making 5.6 mill this year and will make 19 mill for 2023-2024. Team option for 2025.

[Nick]

Are our current batch of young guys getting a fair shot at showing their stuff?

 

We have so many journeymen on the roster that seem to get preferential treatment just because they have major league experience and not because of superior performance.

 

Larry, you make a great point.

 

I much rather see guys like Winckowski given a chance as opposed to bunch of journeymen players.

 

I was surprised to see Darwinzon get sent down. If he comes in clean inning, I have more faith in him than half the guys in the pen.

[Nick]

Just to be clear, an average player is about 2 fWAR over 162 games.

 

As for price, Margot is making 5.6 mill this year and will make 19 mill for 2023-2024. Team option for 2025.

 

When he was traded, didn't we have Beni/Betts/JBJ trio playing well?

[Bellhorn04]

I much rather see guys like Winckowski given a chance as opposed to bunch of journeymen players.

 

Which journeyman starters are we talking about - Hill? Wacha?

[Bellhorn04]

When he was traded, didn't we have Beni/Betts/JBJ trio playing well?

 

Yes.

 

This is about the "down the road" impact of DD's prospect trades.

[moonslav59]

Larry, you make a great point.

 

I much rather see guys like Winckowski given a chance as opposed to bunch of journeymen players.

 

I was surprised to see Darwinzon get sent down. If he comes in clean inning, I have more faith in him than half the guys in the pen.

 

He has not done well in AAA. Still walking the world on fire.

[moonslav59]

Yes.

 

This is about the "down the road" impact of DD's prospect trades.

 

Yes, and "down the road" is the same as hindsight. Several of these down the road prospects books are not complete, yet, and many of the players we got already have their "books" competed.

 

I don't see many chances for anyone we traded to suddenly jump on the map, but we also have to look at total years of control of the players we traded vs the limited years of control of the players we got.

 

Take Margot, for example. He was traded in 2015, but did not really start playing FT until about 2017.

 

bWAR since 2017

2.4

1.3

1.9

1.0

2.8

1.2, so far (projects to over 3)

 

Comparing to our OF'ers at the time of the trade (2015) may or may not be "fair," but here are the numbers:

 

JBJ

2.0 '15

5.8 '16

3.2 '17 (when Margot started FT)

2.5

2.0

2.0

-0.7

0.5, so far (projects to over 1.5)

 

Beni

0.8 '16 (not FT)

2.8 (Margot's first year)

4.8

1.8

-0.1 (traded after this season)

2.4

1.5, so far (projected over 4, and his final year of control)

 

I won't post Betts, because we know he blows Margot away.

 

2020 SOX OF (60 Game season)

1.6 JBJ

0.7 Pillar

-0.1 Beni

 

2021

4.9 Kike

2.3 Renfroe

2.2 Verdugo

 

2022, so far

0.5 JBJ

0.5 Kike

0.2 Refsnyder, JDavis

0.1 Cordero, Duran

-0.3 Arroyo

-0.5 Verdugo

[moonslav59]

Which journeyman starters are we talking about - Hill? Wacha?

 

...and who are the "bunch of journeymen" starters we might have started, instead of Winckowski?

[Old Red]

Larry, you make a great point.

 

I much rather see guys like Winckowski given a chance as opposed to bunch of journeymen players.

 

I was surprised to see Darwinzon get sent down. If he comes in clean inning, I have more faith in him than half the guys in the pen.

 

Darwinzon has 16 walks in 19.2 innings. I’d be surprised if he comes back up.

[notin]

Darwinzon has 16 walks in 19.2 innings. I’d be surprised if he comes back up.

 

Especially since he is currently injured…

[notin]

Which journeyman starters are we talking about - Hill? Wacha?

 

To be fair, he never mentioned starting pitchers - or pitchers at all - in the post about journeyman….

[Old Red]

Especially since he is currently injured…

 

I’m talking about this year.

[Nick]

Which journeyman starters are we talking about - Hill? Wacha?

 

I'm happy with our starters.

 

I was thinking about the pen.

 

Anymore you need guys with 'good stuff', especially in 10th inning.

 

My feeling is that Brasier, Sawamura, et al has no chance to hold the score to zero.

 

That's why I even brought up Darwinzon. Hell he may walk two batter but he can also strike out three.

 

Kimbrel to some extent suffered from wildness the last year he was with the Sox. But he usually came in with no base runners.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Most posters agree a move or transaction is worth it, if it produces a world championship. So was the Kimbrel trade worth it? It directly played a large role in three straight first place finishes, including the 2018 ring for the best Red Sox team of all-time. Kimbrel almost gave me a heart attack in the '18 postseason, but he was mostly a stabilizing force that solidified the Sox into a contender. He also saved over 100 games, was a Boston All-Star from '16-18, and even finished 6th in the Cy Young in '17 (Sale was 2nd).

 

Margot, the best of the prospects swapped for Kimbrel, has been an ok big leaguer. This is nothing like the 1987 deadline deal that brought starter Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers. For the last two months of that season Alexander was the best pitcher in baseball, going 9-0 with the lowest ERA and WHIP. His addition was totally worth giving up prospects at the time because it made the Tigers the winningest club in the majors, and the favorite to go all the way.

 

Then Alexander lost two playoff starts and Detroit didn't even make the World Series. Meanwhile, one of the prospects eventually did better than just ok for his new team in Atlanta, and even became a famous TV analyst on FOX...

[notin]

I’m talking about this year.

 

And until he stops being injured this year, he won’t even get a chance to prove his control issues have been addressed.

 

The problem with D Hernandez is the Sox can’t DFA him until they’ve just given up on him. 25yo pitchers with options and fastballs in excess of 102mph do not last long on the waiver wire…

[Old Red]

And until he stops being injured this year, he won’t even get a chance to prove his control issues have been addressed.

 

The problem with D Hernandez is the Sox can’t DFA him until they’ve just given up on him. 25yo pitchers with options and fastballs in excess of 102mph do not last long on the waiver wire…

 

His control issues haven’t been addressed injured, or not. Meh.

[moonslav59]

To be fair, he never mentioned starting pitchers - or pitchers at all - in the post about journeyman….

 

True, but he specifically singled out the Winckoski start, as the "chance."

[Bellhorn04]

Most posters agree a move or transaction is worth it, if it produces a world championship. So was the Kimbrel trade worth it? It directly played a large role in three straight first place finishes, including the 2018 ring for the best Red Sox team of all-time. Kimbrel almost gave me a heart attack in the '18 postseason, but he was mostly a stabilizing force that solidified the Sox into a contender. He also saved over 100 games, was a Boston All-Star from '16-18, and even finished 6th in the Cy Young in '17 (Sale was 2nd).

 

Margot, the best of the prospects swapped for Kimbrel, has been an ok big leaguer. This is nothing like the 1987 deadline deal that brought starter Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers. For the last two months of that season Alexander was the best pitcher in baseball, going 9-0 with the lowest ERA and WHIP. His addition was totally worth giving up prospects at the time because it made the Tigers the winningest club in the majors, and the favorite to go all the way.

 

Then Alexander lost two playoff starts and Detroit didn't even make the World Series. Meanwhile, one of the prospects eventually did better than just ok for his new team in Atlanta, and even became a famous TV analyst on FOX...

 

I've never complained about the Kimbrel trade.

 

I do understand why people might think it was an overpay, giving up 4 prospects.

 

(Please don't anyone call it a double whammy! It wasn't.)

The one guy who might have made the trade look bad was Logan Allen, but he doesn't seem to be amounting to much.

[dgalehouse]

He's been an MLB starting position player for six years, but never an All-Star. As the centerpiece in a trade for an All-Star closer, you make that deal every day.

 

Kimbrel, 27 at the time of the Margot trade, had led the NL in saves and received Cy Young votes four straight years, and MVP votes in three. He was exactly what the Red Sox needed to get to the next level, which was first place for the next three seasons.

 

Some fans thought this trade was an overpay . Some actually still do . To me , it was one of the Sox best deals in recent years. We got much the better of it .

[moonslav59]

I'm happy with our starters.

 

I was thinking about the pen.

 

Anymore you need guys with 'good stuff', especially in 10th inning.

 

My feeling is that Brasier, Sawamura, et al has no chance to hold the score to zero.

 

That's why I even brought up Darwinzon. Hell he may walk two batter but he can also strike out three.

 

Kimbrel to some extent suffered from wildness the last year he was with the Sox. But he usually came in with no base runners.

 

I think there is a lot of support among posters to give some young arms a shot in the pen over "journeymen" types. I will add a few things:

 

1. DHern fits the journeyman type. Plus, he's hurt and ha sucked, beyond his low OPS Against numbers.

2. Is Sawamura a journeyman? (He's been in less MLB seasons than DHern or Schreiber.)

3. This is 28 year old Scheiber's 4th MLB season. Is he a journeyman?

 

Our best OPS Against in Relief:

.384 Whitlock (currently a starter)

.392 Schreiber

.539 Strahm

.554 Vadlez

.593 Houck

.619 Danish

.645 Sawamura

.650 Davis

.658 Davis

 

How many of these are journeymen or young prospects?

.715 Robles

.762 Diekman

.908 Crawford

.935 Brasier

 

Possible pen arms to be promoted:

 

Starters to pen?

Winckowski

Seabold

Bello

Walter

Groome

Murphy

 

Pen

German

Kelly

Politi

Ort

E Bazardo

J Thompson

 

 

[dgalehouse]

Margot is off to a hot start , but his career numbers show him as nothing more than an okay ballplayer . I don't see him starting over any of our former " Killer B " outfielders.

[moonslav59]

Some fans thought this trade was an overpay . Some actually still do . To me , it was one of the Sox best deals in recent years. We got much the better of it .

 

At the time of the deal, Kimbrel's contract was close to the going rate for a top FA closer. Giving up that many prospects for a FA-type contract seemed like a gross overpay.

 

In hindsight:

 

1) All the prospects but Margot fizzled.

2) The closer FA market exploded almost the instant we made that trade, and his $13M quickly became a decent to eventually a good price for a top closer, although by the very end of his control years, he became a very shaky closer.

3) One argument, at the time, was that we could have gotten him for less (no Logan Allen) or we could have gotten a starter for that cost (like a Quintana.)

 

No doubt, hindsight has helped almost all of DD's trades to look better, and ultimately, that is how trades and GMs are graded. BTW, this is Margot's last arb year, and he's headed towards an fWAR of above 3.

 

We got three excellent years from Kimbrel at about $39M (before inflation adjustments) 6.5 bWAR/5.7 fWAR

 

Margot is not finished adding to his 11.1 career bWAR (8.8 fWAR) total at about $14M total.

 

The ring has to count for something, but the trade ledger is not complete, yet, and an argument could be made that 7 years of Margot plus $25M less cost to spend on others is close to 3 years of Kimbrel at close to $40M

 

[moonslav59]

Margot is off to a hot start , but his career numbers show him as nothing more than an okay ballplayer . I don't see him starting over any of our former " Killer B " outfielders.

 

His original team control ends, this year. Why only compare him to the Sox OF of 3-6 years ago?

 

What about the Beni of 2019 & 2020? (Margot had about the same bWAR as Beni in 2016, too.)

 

The JBJ of 2021?

 

What about Verdugo, JBJ and Kike, this year? Margot has a better WAR than the 3 combined!

Edited May 30, 2022 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So basically, the reason I encouraged the Margot-Kimbrel posts is because it's time now for Bloom to fortify the roster with an actual quality closer.

 

We all know even some of our hottest hitters will cool off eventually, and we'll start losing more games again because of the inadequate bullpen.

 

Trade from prospect strength -- whatever the Red Sox deem that is -- it may be a big bat, like Binelas or Jordan or Kavadas or Northcut... or it may be a starting pitcher from Portland or Woo; if not, promote one into the rotation and send someone good to the back end... or see if the rook can relieve, then slowly transition him into high lev.

 

If Bloom doesn't make a serious move in the next month, it means the Red Sox will most likely be sellers before August -- because this roster will be exposed in July playing the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays 17 games in a row.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

... unless we're waiting on Sale to step in and be the savior... subjugating all Machados down to one knee, while closing out the Ws.

[moonslav59]

So basically, the reason I encouraged the Margot-Kimbrel posts is because it's time now for Bloom to fortify the roster with an actual quality closer.

 

We all know even some of our hottest hitters will cool off eventually, and we'll start losing more games again because of the inadequate bullpen.

 

Trade from prospect strength -- whatever the Red Sox deem that is -- it may be a big bat, like Binelas or Jordan or Kavadas or Northcut... or it may be a starting pitcher from Portland or Woo; if not, promote one into the rotation and send someone good to the back end... or see if the rook can relieve, then slowly transition him into high lev.

 

If Bloom doesn't make a serious move in the next month, it means the Red Sox will most likely be sellers before August -- because this roster will be exposed in July playing the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays 17 games in a row.

 

We may see an input from the farm before the deadline, but I doubt we trade any big prospects, no matter what.

 

I'm not sure the names you mentioned get us a solid closer