Fire Bloom .

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Oh well, it took Henry 20 years to oversee his first tear-down with the Red Sox. Looks like it's going to be a doozy.

 

 

It's about time someone mentioned JH in this discussion. He hired Bloom for a reason. I'm guessing the reason was he wants the SOX to operate the same way Tampa did. Develop SOX players in the minors and then get rid of them when they become too expensive and every once in a while sign a free agent.

JH is tired of getting burned with long term and expensive contracts. Btw, he did buy the SOX 4 championship teams over the last 18 years.

Edited May 29, 2022 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[notin]

But the NFL had playoffs before the Super Bowl.

 

Counting only Super Bowl wins implies there was no NFL before 1967.

 

The NFL before 1967 was a hell of a lot different than MLB before their first World Series.

 

 

Baseball had playoffs before the World Series, too. That was my point.

Edited May 29, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

It's about time someone mentioned JH in this discussion. He hired Bloom for a reason. I'm guessing the reason was he wants the SOX to operate the same way Tampa did. Develop SOX players in the minors and then get rid of them when they become too expensive and every once in a while sign a free agent.

JH is tired of getting burned with long term and expensive contracts. Btw, he did buy the SOX 4 championship teams over the last 18 years.

 

Having a strong farm is the best way to sustain winning for big, moderate and low spenders.

 

I'm not sure how much input Henry had during DD's trading prospects stretch, and maybe the fact that very few of the prospects he traded amounted to much over those first few years (and even afterwards) reinforced the position that trading prospects made more sense than letting low cost players fill many key slots on the roster.

 

I think he has gone back to trusting the farm over big signings and extension.

 

The problem is, our farm is not really at the point where we can expect high impact players infusions on a consistent basis.

 

Some of our very best prospects seem 1.5-3 years away.

[notin]

It's about time someone mentioned JH in this discussion. He hired Bloom for a reason. I'm guessing the reason was he wants the SOX to operate the same way Tampa did. Develop SOX players in the minors and then get rid of them when they become too expensive and every once in a while sign a free agent.

JH is tired of getting burned with long term and expensive contracts. Btw, he did buy the SOX 4 championship teams over the last 18 years.

 

 

I’m sure there is something similar in mind.

 

However, before 2003 the Sox nearly hired Billy Beane, and even if the intention was to operate more similarly to the surprisingly successful A’s of the early 2000’s, it’s not like Henry then have the team a limited operating cost with an Oakland budget.

 

Henry actually appears to be cyclical with this team. He brings in free-spending GMs who drop tons and tons of cash and make crazy long term commitments like Duquette and Dombrowski, but then replaced them with GMs who focus on building back the farm system and provide cheaper talent while those contracts run down.

 

Epstein was the perfect GM. He was able to maintain the winning while rebuilding the farm. He spent a lot but he won a lot and kept the farm producing minimum wage players to keep everything in line.

 

He probably wants Bloom to be Epstein 2.0. It’s a tall order but certainly an understandable plan…

[dgalehouse]

There is a need to spend for the top talent . Depending on the farm system to keep you competive with the big spenders will only get you so far. Sustainable also rans.

[moonslav59]

I’m sure there is something similar in mind.

 

However, before 2003 the Sox nearly hired Billy Beane, and even if the intention was to operate more similarly to the surprisingly successful A’s of the early 2000’s, it’s not like Henry then have the team a limited operating cost with an Oakland budget.

 

Henry actually appears to be cyclical with this team. He brings in free-spending GMs who drop tons and tons of cash and make crazy long term commitments like Duquette and Dombrowski, but then replaced them with GMs who focus on building back the farm system and provide cheaper talent while those contracts run down.

 

Epstein was the perfect GM. He was able to maintain the winning while rebuilding the farm. He spent a lot but he won a lot and kept the farm producing minimum wage players to keep everything in line.

 

He probably wants Bloom to be Epstein 2.0. It’s a tall order but certainly an understandable plan…

 

Yes, and we rest the tax several times under Epstein.

 

During Theo's last few years, he started to get away from that winning philosophy and even admitted it, alter.

 

Ben was Bloom before Bloom. It was obvious Henry sought to get back to the early to mid Theo era philosophy, but after 3 last place finishes, I think he got impatient and blew up the whole plan by hiring DD, and setting him loose.

 

Henry does seem to go in cycles, but it has worked. Spreading rings every few years seems to keep fans happy.

 

Here is a look at the opening day budgets ups and downs year by year since Theo:

 

Rings in RED

 

Theo:

-9, +27, -4, +23, -10, -12, +47, -4

 

Ben:

+12, -21, +2, +18

 

DD:

+13, -1, +36, +3

 

Bloom:

[-153 (COVID)], -56 from 2019, +26 (This budget is still $30M below DD's final season opening say budget)

 

Note: End of year budgets vary wildly from opening day, some years.

 

Seasons we paid a lux tax:

 

Theo:

2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2011, 2012

 

Ben

2015

 

DD

2016, 2018, 2019

 

Bloom

likely 2022

 

 

[notin]

Yes, and we rest the tax several times under Epstein.

 

During Theo's last few years, he started to get away from that winning philosophy and even admitted it, alter.

 

Ben was Bloom before Bloom. It was obvious Henry sought to get back to the early to mid Theo era philosophy, but after 3 last place finishes, I think he got impatient and blew up the whole plan by hiring DD, and setting him loose.

 

Henry does seem to go in cycles, but it has worked. Spreading rings every few years seems to keep fans happy.

 

Here is a look at the opening day budgets ups and downs year by year since Theo:

 

Rings in RED

 

Theo:

-9, +27, -4, +23, -10, -12, +47, -4

 

Ben:

+12, -21, +2, +18

 

DD:

+13, -1, +36, +3

 

Bloom:

[-153 (COVID)], -56 from 2019, +26 (This budget is still $30M below DD's final season opening say budget)

 

Note: End of year budgets vary wildly from opening day, some years.

 

Seasons we paid a lux tax:

 

Theo:

2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2011, 2012

 

Ben

2015

 

DD

2016, 2018, 2019

 

Bloom

likely 2022

 

 

 

 

Ben made some nice moves and win a ring, but he made two thoroughly bizarre moves that I never understood.

 

1. Trading Lester for Yoenis Cespedes. Trading the best SP should be an indication of a rebuild. So acquiring a veteran OF who contractually prohibited from being offered arbitration made very little sense.

 

2. Trading Lackey for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig. Again, clearly dismantling the rotation and getting back an overpaid injured infielder and a relief pitcher?

 

He might have had some reasoning for these moves. I’ll probably never understand it…

[notin]

There is a need to spend for the top talent . Depending on the farm system to keep you competive with the big spenders will only get you so far. Sustainable also rans.

 

The problem is, you have to keep spending for top talent long after it stops producing. And it prevents bringing in new top talent or retaining existing top talent.

 

Per sportrac, the Sox have a payroll of $203 million. But well over half of that is on contracts from Dombrowski. Some (Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Martinez) are producing. Some (Sale, Price) are not. And Vazquez has been lately but overall isn’t much…

 

But having to pay all these deals does limit keeping and bringing in other talent..

[moonslav59]

Ben made some nice moves and win a ring, but he made two thoroughly bizarre moves that I never understood.

 

1. Trading Lester for Yoenis Cespedes. Trading the best SP should be an indication of a rebuild. So acquiring a veteran OF who contractually prohibited from being offered arbitration made very little sense.

 

2. Trading Lackey for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig. Again, clearly dismantling the rotation and getting back an overpaid injured infielder and a relief pitcher?

 

He might have had some reasoning for these moves. I’ll probably never understand it…

 

Cespedes did still have one more year of team control than Lester did, and we flipped him for Porcello.

 

Craig was a gamble that failed to pay off. Kelly was thought to be a solid pitcher, at the time.

 

The Miller for ERod deal worked well.

 

I forget who we got for Peavy & Doubront.

[moonslav59]

The problem is, you have to keep spending for top talent long after it stops producing. And it prevents bringing in new top talent or retaining existing top talent.

 

Per sportrac, the Sox have a payroll of $203 million. But well over half of that is on contracts from Dombrowski. Some (Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Martinez) are producing. Some (Sale, Price) are not. And Vazquez has been lately but overall isn’t much…

 

But having to pay all these deals does limit keeping and bringing in other talent..

 

It's hard to imagine the solution being to never sign or extend anyone to large & long contracts, but maybe it can work.

 

The plan revolves around having prospects give you 4-6 years like Devers, Betts, Bogey and others.

 

A Sox plan would also have to include getting some star pitching from their own system.

[notin]

It's hard to imagine the solution being to never sign or extend anyone to large & long contracts, but maybe it can work.

 

The plan revolves around having prospects give you 4-6 years like Devers, Betts, Bogey and others.

 

A Sox plan would also have to include getting some star pitching from their own system.

 

Tampa’s plan was always to sign players to reasonable extensions insanely early in their careers. Evan Longoria had less than 2 weeks when he extended. Matt Moore had 2 starts under his belt. And these deals were so team-friendly, there was almost no risk if these players struggled, since Moore was effectively paid like an expensive middle reliever anyway.

 

The Sox have yet to really try anything like that, with Whitlock being the closest…

[notin]

Cespedes did still have one more year of team control than Lester did, and we flipped him for Porcello.

 

Craig was a gamble that failed to pay off. Kelly was thought to be a solid pitcher, at the time.

 

The Miller for ERod deal worked well.

 

I forget who we got for Peavy & Doubront.

 

While Cespedes did get Porcello, I think that was not exactly the plan all along.

 

But my point was - you’re dealing your 1 and 2 SP. Quit pretending you’re reloading. Cherington was collecting bullets for the belt when the chamber was still empty…

[Larry Cook]

 

A Sox plan would also have to include getting some star pitching from their own system.

 

We have Bello and mata, both of whom should be major league starters.

 

Walter is a wildcard, but I am not sure he makes it as a starter, especially if you can lay off the slider and feast on the fastball!

 

Gonzalez could be the best of the bunch, if his command and control improves.

 

After that, the cupboard is pretty bare for starters.

[moonslav59]

Tampa’s plan was always to sign players to reasonable extensions insanely early in their careers. Evan Longoria had less than 2 weeks when he extended. Matt Moore had 2 starts under his belt. And these deals were so team-friendly, there was almost no risk if these players struggled, since Moore was effectively paid like an expensive middle reliever anyway.

 

The Sox have yet to really try anything like that, with Whitlock being the closest…

 

The Rays don't do that a whole lot, but probably more than most teams.

 

To me, their best aspect was knowing the precise time to unload a player- mostly pitchers, and it wasn't always during their walk year. So many times, they trade a guy, and the almost immediately drop off a cliff. (They usually do well on the return of ML or near ML prospects.)

 

Secondly, they seem to very well adding journeymen-type players to their roster who go on to have a career year or two.

 

They are not know for having great drafts or IFA signings.

 

[moonslav59]

While Cespedes did get Porcello, I think that was not exactly the plan all along.

 

But my point was - you’re dealing your 1 and 2 SP. Quit pretending you’re reloading. Cherington was collecting bullets for the belt when the chamber was still empty…

 

At the time of those trades, I was upset that they "played it half way." They did not really restock the farm, except for ERod for Miller. They just added quantity and more years of control for quality. Kinda like the Betts trade.

 

Remember, we traded 2 months of Lester. When you think of it that way, a year and 2 months of Cespedes for 2 months of Lester doesn't look as bad. Same with a year of Betts (60 games, actually) for 5 years of Verdugo.

 

[cp176]

A 23 year old Jay Groome is going to deserve a look see soon.

[moonslav59]

A 23 year old Jay Groome is going to deserve a look see soon.

 

Is he ahead of Seabold and Bello?

 

He better careful Walter doesn't pass him.

 

BTW, Groome got drilled, today.

 

2 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 1 K 4 HR

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Dombrowski may get too much notoriety here for trading the farm. Sure, he continually made swaps to supplement a contender -- but that's a key job of a good GM. But he never gave away Jeff Bagwell...

 

Kopech looks great this year, but Moncada is already 27, never been an All-Star, and has only had one really good year. Is anyone else the one that got away? Margot and Dubon are career .256 hitters. Espinal looks like a decent utility guy.

 

It's arguable that none of the position players dealt by Dombro will have as good a career as Jose Iglesias, whose glove has kept him around for over a decade and 1,000 games -- and whose bat has gradually improved to a near .280 lifetime average. All that Red Sox GM Ben Cherington got for him were 10 starts (4.04 ERA) and one decent playoff game in 2013 from Jake Peavy.

 

Of course, Iglesias wasn't a future NL batting champ like Freddy Sanchez -- traded in a multi-player deal by GM Theo Epstein at the '03 deadline. At least one of the acquired guys (Brandon Lyon) was eventually flipped for Curt Schilling.

 

And yet, it was ok for those GMs to trade from positions of strength. The Sox still had Nomar, and then Bogaerts, and then Devers... There are only so many positions on the diamond.

[moonslav59]

Margot and Dubon are career .256 hitters.

 

 

We could sure use a .256 OF'er whom plays plus D.

 

The time is almost up on some of the prospects' years of team control, and it doesn't look like anyone of DD;s traded is going to make a big surprise.

 

As it turned out, DD kept Devers and a few others look to be better than the vast majority of prospects he traded. It worked out for DD, because one, we won a ring and had 3 first place finishes, and two, the prospects he chose to trade away have not lived up to the hype. Thirdly, he drafted pretty well for having crappy picks and a restricted IFA spending pool.

 

That being said, we can't assume every farm is going to peter out like much of that one did. We also can't assume we choose the right ones to trade, next time.

 

I still think the best idea is to keep most of your best prospects in hopes a few can add some very low cost value to the 26 man roster, and maybe a trade, here and there, when needed badly. Many times, it has worked keeping our homegrown stars and solid role players.

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

We could sure use a .256 OF'er whom plays plus D.

 

 

I still think the best idea is to keep most of your best prospects in hopes a few can add some very low cost value to the 26 man roster, and maybe a trade, here and there, when needed badly. Many times, it has worked keeping our homegrown stars and solid role players.

I agree with this as a steady stream of good quality lower cost players generated through promotion of our prospects and/or trade of them to fill our needs is important. it helps to balance our budget as we also need to pay our star player fair value. Drafting as well as our record allows is another component of success as is the quality of our development process. The occasional dive into the FA market to fill in a position where we have a deficiency and no prospect or reasonable trade can fill the bill is a final component.

 

All teams let out some unfortunate contracts and we certainly have been guilty of that Currently we are still eating the Price contract, we are paying Sale big money and he has been unavailable and Barnes seemed to tank shortly after receiving his new contract. Those hits on the budget limits what the team can do to help itself. Part of these contracts can be seen as bad luck, but wisdom at the GM level is an asset that when used can minimize dead money contracts.

[moonslav59]

I agree with this as a steady stream of good quality lower cost players generated through promotion of our prospects and/or trade of them to fill our needs is important. it helps to balance our budget as we also need to pay our star player fair value. Drafting as well as our record allows is another component of success as is the quality of our development process. The occasional dive into the FA market to fill in a position where we have a deficiency and no prospect or reasonable trade can fill the bill is a final component.

 

All teams let out some unfortunate contracts and we certainly have been guilty of that Currently we are still eating the Price contract, we are paying Sale big money and he has been unavailable and Barnes seemed to tank shortly after receiving his new contract. Those hits on the budget limits what the team can do to help itself. Part of these contracts can be seen as bad luck, but wisdom at the GM level is an asset that when used can minimize dead money contracts.

 

I agree, and maybe the change in direction will not be away from FA signings, but only away from large and long ones. I'm thinking the Story deal might be as large and long as we go, and even then, not very often.

[Bellhorn04]

We could sure use a .256 OF'er whom plays plus D.

 

Margot is actually starting to look like the "surprise" guy. His offensive game has really picked up this year.

[moonslav59]

Margot is actually starting to look like the "surprise" guy. His offensive game has really picked up this year.

 

True, but he was good enough to play in our OF for years before now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Margot is actually starting to look like the "surprise" guy. His offensive game has really picked up this year.

 

He's been an MLB starting position player for six years, but never an All-Star. As the centerpiece in a trade for an All-Star closer, you make that deal every day.

 

Kimbrel, 27 at the time of the Margot trade, had led the NL in saves and received Cy Young votes four straight years, and MVP votes in three. He was exactly what the Red Sox needed to get to the next level, which was first place for the next three seasons.

[notin]

At the time of those trades, I was upset that they "played it half way." They did not really restock the farm, except for ERod for Miller. They just added quantity and more years of control for quality. Kinda like the Betts trade.

 

Remember, we traded 2 months of Lester. When you think of it that way, a year and 2 months of Cespedes for 2 months of Lester doesn't look as bad. Same with a year of Betts (60 games, actually) for 5 years of Verdugo.

 

 

It’s not that Lester/Cespedes wasn’t fair. It just looked like a complete lack of direction. The Sox were heading to last place that year, and Cespedes was just not the guy to get them out of that in two months…

[notin]

Dombrowski may get too much notoriety here for trading the farm. Sure, he continually made swaps to supplement a contender -- but that's a key job of a good GM. But he never gave away Jeff Bagwell...

 

Kopech looks great this year, but Moncada is already 27, never been an All-Star, and has only had one really good year. Is anyone else the one that got away? Margot and Dubon are career .256 hitters. Espinal looks like a decent utility guy.

 

It's arguable that none of the position players dealt by Dombro will have as good a career as Jose Iglesias, whose glove has kept him around for over a decade and 1,000 games -- and whose bat has gradually improved to a near .280 lifetime average. All that Red Sox GM Ben Cherington got for him were 10 starts (4.04 ERA) and one decent playoff game in 2013 from Jake Peavy.

 

Of course, Iglesias wasn't a future NL batting champ like Freddy Sanchez -- traded in a multi-player deal by GM Theo Epstein at the '03 deadline. At least one of the acquired guys (Brandon Lyon) was eventually flipped for Curt Schilling.

 

And yet, it was ok for those GMs to trade from positions of strength. The Sox still had Nomar, and then Bogaerts, and then Devers... There are only so many positions on the diamond.

 

 

Well, Kopech is just getting going now…

[Larry Cook]

Margot is actually starting to look like the "surprise" guy. His offensive game has really picked up this year.

 

Are our current batch of young guys getting a fair shot at showing their stuff?

 

We have so many journeymen on the roster that seem to get preferential treatment just because they have major league experience and not because of superior performance.

[moonslav59]

It’s not that Lester/Cespedes wasn’t fair. It just looked like a complete lack of direction. The Sox were heading to last place that year, and Cespedes was just not the guy to get them out of that in two months…

 

I felt the same way.

 

The only "direction" seemed to be to try and hold onto relevancy for another season with little done to improve the longer outlook, except adding ERod and Kelly.

 

As it turned out, Porcello (via Cespedes), Kelly and ERod all helped us win in 2028.

[moonslav59]

Well, Kopech is just getting going now…

 

That's the thing about making judgments on these types of trades after just 2-3 years.

[cp176]

Is he ahead of Seabold and Bello?

 

He better careful Walter doesn't pass him.

 

BTW, Groome got drilled, today.

 

2 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 1 K 4 HR

 

Oh i think that he is actually behind all of those guys at this point including Walter but what is the kid 23? He is a big strong left hander. I don't think that he gets counted out just yet.