Fire Bloom .

[Dipre]

"Is it really atrocious if they are above .500?!?!? Webster's defines atrocious as savagely wicked or cruel. It's not like we're Washington Nationals fans coming off a WS championship and going 172 - 278 (.382 %)."

 

 

So you are okay with mediocrity. Seems like a bunch of fans, regulars, on this forum are incredibly apologetic for the Sox becoming a small market joke. Rationalizing one franchise's s***** record to make the Sox s***** record now for a number of seasons as if it's acceptable. Listen, John Henry et al get their free pass (04,07,13,18)--an incredible run of WS titles in a short span..and I always applaud that about the franchise...but there is a point where post 2018 has to be better than what has occurred--there is a point where Bloom and his decision making has to be called into question..and frankly it's time to also move on from Cora, who will always have 2018, but like John Farrell it gets old when the team is playing last-place baseball. So dump Bloom, dump Cora, find a new voice in baseball operations and managership and let's turn this ship around. Sign some stars--yes sign some stars to rebuild around Devers, and quit pretending the Sox don't have money. This Tampa concept works in Tampa, not in Boston.

 

Bro, we were poking fun about a semantics argument with Max the other day. Jesus Christ.

[Old Red]

Is WAR good now? Isn't WAR only one tool that never paints the whole picture anyway? Aren't there several data points you need to provide to really identify how well a player is doing?

 

Let’s call Donny O, and ask him what the eye test has shown, and settle this.

[mvp 78]

I don't like jokes.

 

"/s" means that the post was purely sarcastic in nature.

[mvp 78]

Let’s call Donny O, and ask him what the eye test has shown, and settle this.

 

I'd only trust an eye test from a real eagle eyed pro like Angel Hernandez.

[moonslav59]

So you are okay with mediocrity. Seems like a bunch of fans, regulars, on this forum are incredibly apologetic for the Sox becoming a small market joke. Rationalizing one franchise's s***** record to make the Sox s***** record now for a number of seasons as if it's acceptable. Listen, John Henry et al get their free pass (04,07,13,18)--an incredible run of WS titles in a short span..and I always applaud that about the franchise...but there is a point where post 2018 has to be better than what has occurred--there is a point where Bloom and his decision making has to be called into question..and frankly it's time to also move on from Cora, who will always have 2018, but like John Farrell it gets old when the team is playing last-place baseball. So dump Bloom, dump Cora, find a new voice in baseball operations and managership and let's turn this ship around. Sign some stars--yes sign some stars to rebuild around Devers, and quit pretending the Sox don't have money. This Tampa concept works in Tampa, not in Boston.

 

We are not "small market." Currently, we are high end "mid market (middle third,) and we have gone up and down in the past, winning rings after "going cheap" for a year or two.

 

It's not making excuses or "apologizing" for anything. it's realizing the way it is and knowing no matter how hard we can reason that Henry can and or should spend more, if he doesn't, it is what it is.

 

The fact is, JH has started spending more since March 2022 with the Story signing. The Devers extensión, alone, nullifies any talk of small market, but it kicks in, next year.

 

It's not an apology. I think we all wish JH would spend more, but his history shows he will not go 3 years in a row over the line and still has 4 rings to his name. I'm not ready to call for another owner. I guess, if that's apologizing, to some, I'm guilty as charged, but I don't see it that way.

 

I think, when JH hired Ben, his idea was to get back to the early Theo plan of establishing and maintaining a strong farm, while spending big, when needed, here and there. Yes, we were the top spenders for a few years, here and there, too, but not to the point where we were taxed at the 3rd year rates or incurred stiff penalties on drafts and IFA bonus pool money for over-spending. (The lower draft picks for losing Nate and Bogey could hurt, some.)

 

The plan DD implemented worked very well, but it was polar opposite to what the early Theo, Ben and now Bloom plans and strategies. It is no coincidence that we only had one semi-meaningful prospect graduate between Devers in 2017 and Bello in late 2022. That's 5 years of basically nothing, as compared to so many homegrown studs we saw from Theo and all the talent we acquired by trading away much of Theo and Ben's farm by DD.

 

We've seen an uptick in farm infusion, some looking real good. We've seen additions like Whitlock, Wink and Schreiber, all with 2+ more years of team control start to change the idea that we cannot improve on increasing our young pitcher production. That area still has a long way to go, but we have moved in the right direction: something the later years Theo, Ben and DD did not do. Again, this is not apologizing, but just pointing out some good aspects of Bloom's reign both now and looking forward, on the pitching front.

 

The W-L results have sucked since the end of 2021- no doubt. With this budget, we should be winning more. That is on Bloom and the players who have not been meeting expectations based on their previous production and age curve projections. Maybe Cora is to blame for some of this under-performing.

 

Nobody is pretending JH does not have money. We just can't force him to spend, and using his reluctance to spend or overspend as the reason for us losing, seems like apologizing for underperforming players, to me. If these pitchers pitched like they could since the start of April, and our hitters hit like they could (and did in April,) we'd be in a playoff slot, right now with a budget re-set in place and 2024 looking brighter.

 

I still think JH will spend big, again. I've given up on projecting when that will be.

[Dipre]

i'd only trust an eye test from a real eagle eyed pro like angel hernandez.

 

the best, mvp78, the best!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Orlando Arcía, he of the .679 career OPS, is OPS'ing .853 and sitting pretty with a 1.7 fWar thus far, when his career high is 0.7. What's most likely? His numbers regressing to the norm, or him putting up a 4.0 WAR when he had a 642 game sample of utter suck that suggests this is not his level of production?

 

OPS is just another metric to measure value... but hardly the end-all be-all. Right?

 

Devers the $300 Million Dollar Man is currently 8th among MLB regular third basemen in OPS at .811. Is JD Davis, the 3B OPS leader at .845, a better "hitter" than Raffy?

 

Davis: 9 HR, 35 RBI; Devers: 17 HR, 56 RBI (leads the majors).

 

For hot cornermen, Raffy is 14th in On Base % with a .301; only Jean Segura is worse (60-game min. at 3B). But Devers leads all third basemen in Slugging at .510.

 

Does anyone think it would be better if Carita has more selective at bats, and maybe draw more walks -- thus raising his OPS -- so guys like Kike, Casas, Arroyo, Wong and Reyes can try to drive him in? Will that really benefit the club? We may not know if Duvall's wrist is fully healed until the weather heats up... so far in his return, he's 2-for-18, with 8 Ks...

[Bellhorn04]

But he’s not as cheap as you keep saying.

 

His $6.5mill AAV only lasts if the Padres decline his 2 yr $30mill team option and Wacha exercises his player option for the next 3 years.

 

So his $6.5mill AAV only lasts if he isn’t worth it…

 

I know how his contract works, but he's still cheap this year.

[moonslav59]

On a separate note, I remember when Moon made a giant case about the importance of catchers to a pitching staff, that a weak-hitting catcher who calls good games and increases the pitchers effectiveness is far more important--CWHIP...or something like that, but I have always felt that it was a good theory and not utilized enough in analysis of teams.

 

Whether it was luck or whatever, some catchers consistently got a 1 or more run better ERA from certain SP'ers nearly year after year, than the back-up. (Usually Leon v Vaz or Plawecki v Vaz, but earlier with VTek vs whoever, too.) 1 run every 5 games is a huge factor.

 

One had to expect a learning curve with not just 2 younger and or new catchers to the ML team, but a near total staff changeover from 2022, as well. Maybe the improvement of late, is showing the learning curve is over.

 

IP Leaders in 2022

180 Pivetta (demoted to pen)

127 Wacha GONE

124 Hill GONE

109 Nate GONE

78 Whitlock

77 Crawford

70 Wink

65 Schreiber

62 Brasier GONE

60 Houck

57 Bello

54 Davis GONE

51 Sawamura GONE

45 Strahm GONE

40 Danish GONE

40 Barnes GONE

38 Diekman GONE

28 Ort (demoted to AAA)

14 Kelly + 6 Sale (on IL)

100+ combined IP GONE from Robles, Seabold, Bazardo, Valdez, Familia, DHern, German & Feliz

 

Catchers:

McGuire 27 games started w BOS prior to 2023.

C Wong 20 games started as a C w BOS prior to '23.

[Dipre]

OPS is just another metric to measure value... but hardly the end-all be-all. Right?

 

Devers the $300 Million Dollar Man is currently 8th among MLB regular third basemen in OPS at .811. Is JD Davis, the 3B OPS leader at .845, a better "hitter" than Raffy?

 

Davis: 9 HR, 35 RBI; Devers: 17 HR, 56 RBI (leads the majors).

 

For hot cornermen, Raffy is 14th in On Base % with a .301; only Jean Segura is worse (60-game min. at 3B). But Devers leads all third basemen in Slugging at .510.

 

Does anyone think it would be better if Carita has more selective at bats, and maybe draw more walks -- thus raising his OPS -- so guys like Kike, Casas, Arroyo, Wong and Reyes can try to drive him in? Will that really benefit the club? We may not know if Duvall's wrist is fully healed until the weather heats up... so far in his return, he's 2-for-18, with 8 Ks...

 

You're taking what I was arguing completely out of context, but.....short answer, yes. There's no timer in baseball, your currency are outs. Every time you don't make an out, you are contributing both a baserunner (a possible run), and you're not wasting one of the 27 opportunities you have as a team to score runs. The other side of that coin is that the more you swing at bad pitches, the less strikes they'll throw. The idea is not for him to focus on walks, it's to stop expanding the zone so he actually gets pitches to hit, and he's been doing more of that lately.

[moonslav59]

But he’s not as cheap as you keep saying.

 

His $6.5mill AAV only lasts if the Padres decline his 2 yr $30mill team option and Wacha exercises his player option for the next 3 years.

 

So his $6.5mill AAV only lasts if he isn’t worth it…

 

There is more than one scenario, where he ends up a pretty cheap deal:

 

1. The team does not take the option, and Wacha says no to $16M x 3 remaining, and this could happen if Wacha starts 28+ games with an ERA under 2.99.

Cost $7.5M/1 ($4M + $3.5M signing bonus)

 

2. The team refuses the option, and Wacha says yes to the player option, and this could happen, if he sucks or gets hurt going forward.

Cost: $6.5M x 4 years

 

Only the 3rd option looks expensive (Wacha takes the player option), but if he is doing as well as 2022-2023, it's still not a gross overpay, and could end up a bargain to SD.

Cost:about $14M x 4

 

[mvp 78]

OPS is just another metric to measure value... but hardly the end-all be-all. Right?

 

Devers the $300 Million Dollar Man is currently 8th among MLB regular third basemen in OPS at .811. Is JD Davis, the 3B OPS leader at .845, a better "hitter" than Raffy?

 

Davis: 9 HR, 35 RBI; Devers: 17 HR, 56 RBI (leads the majors).

 

For hot cornermen, Raffy is 14th in On Base % with a .301; only Jean Segura is worse (60-game min. at 3B). But Devers leads all third basemen in Slugging at .510.

 

Does anyone think it would be better if Carita has more selective at bats, and maybe draw more walks -- thus raising his OPS -- so guys like Kike, Casas, Arroyo, Wong and Reyes can try to drive him in? Will that really benefit the club? We may not know if Duvall's wrist is fully healed until the weather heats up... so far in his return, he's 2-for-18, with 8 Ks...

 

Yeah, Devers' best years were when he had a higher walk rate or a lower strike out rate (19, 21, 22) as it makes him a more complete hitter. Chasing bad pitches means that he'll make worse contact overall (FB% is a career high 43%). He's pulling the ball more, but not hitting line drives, just big fly outs. If he was more selective, he'd go back to making better contact IMO. Devers hits 2nd or 4th, so I don't think we'd expect the guys you listed (aside from Casas) to drive him in as they are hitting WAY behind him.

[moonslav59]

You're taking what I was arguing completely out of context, but.....short answer, yes. There's no timer in baseball, your currency are outs. Every time you don't make an out, you are contributing both a baserunner (a possible run), and you're not wasting one of the 27 opportunities you have as a team to score runs. The other side of that coin is that the more you swing at bad pitches, the less strikes they'll throw. The idea is not for him to focus on walks, it's to stop expanding the zone so he actually gets pitches to hit, and he's been doing more of that lately.

 

Does the evidence show Devers is swinging at more bad pitches, this year?

 

Out of Zone swings:

38.7 Career

40.3 in 2022

37.6 in 2023

 

In Zone swings

76.4 Career

77.3 in 2022

80.8 in 2023

 

Overall swing rate:

53.7 Career

54.5 in 2022

54.2 in 2023

 

He is swinging more than his career numbers, but as a result of swinging at more way more pitches in the zone and less out of the zone.

 

He's making more contact, too>

67.1% Career out of zone[> 67.2 in 2023

80.9% Career in zone? 81.9 in 2023

 

(I'm no expert on these types of numbers, so please correct me, if I am wrong- somebody.)

 

[Dipre]

Does the evidence show Devers is swinging at more bad pitches, this year?

 

Out of Zone swings:

38.7 Career

40.3 in 2022

37.6 in 2023

 

In Zone swings

76.4 Career

77.3 in 2022

80.8 in 2023

 

Overall swing rate:

53.7 Career

54.5 in 2022

54.2 in 2023

 

He is swinging more than his career numbers, but as a result of swinging at more way more pitches in the zone and less out of the zone.

 

He's making more contact, too>

67.1% Career out of zone[> 67.2 in 2023

80.9% Career in zone? 81.9 in 2023

 

(I'm no expert on these types of numbers, so please correct me, if I am wrong- somebody.)

 

 

This early in the season, a five-gam stretch in which he murdered the Yankees and Rockies, can positively skew the numbers. Over his mini-slump, he was striking out more, walking less, and barreling less balls. That stretch really helped his up-to-date numbers in both traditional stats and Statcast.

[Duran Is The Man]

I know how his contract works, but he's still cheap this year.

 

and it's a helluva lot better than what we got with Kluber.

[notin]

I'd only trust an eye test from a real eagle eyed pro like Angel Hernandez.

 

No CB Bucknor?

[notin]

I know how his contract works, but he's still cheap this year.

 

If his option is worth exercising, his AAV doubles this year…

[moonslav59]

This early in the season, a five-gam stretch in which he murdered the Yankees and Rockies, can positively skew the numbers. Over his mini-slump, he was striking out more, walking less, and barreling less balls. That stretch really helped his up-to-date numbers in both traditional stats and Statcast.

 

But he has a horrible stretch, last August and likely in other years, too, as well as red hot streaks every season.

[moonslav59]

and it's a helluva lot better than what we got with Kluber.

 

True, but he might end up costing $55M/4 not $10M/1, so that is major.

[Bobe2]

We are not "small market." Currently, we are high end "mid market (middle third,) and we have gone up and down in the past, winning rings after "going cheap" for a year or two.

 

It's not making excuses or "apologizing" for anything. it's realizing the way it is and knowing no matter how hard we can reason that Henry can and or should spend more, if he doesn't, it is what it is.

 

The fact is, JH has started spending more since March 2022 with the Story signing. The Devers extensión, alone, nullifies any talk of small market, but it kicks in, next year.

 

It's not an apology. I think we all wish JH would spend more, but his history shows he will not go 3 years in a row over the line and still has 4 rings to his name. I'm not ready to call for another owner. I guess, if that's apologizing, to some, I'm guilty as charged, but I don't see it that way.

 

I think, when JH hired Ben, his idea was to get back to the early Theo plan of establishing and maintaining a strong farm, while spending big, when needed, here and there. Yes, we were the top spenders for a few years, here and there, too, but not to the point where we were taxed at the 3rd year rates or incurred stiff penalties on drafts and IFA bonus pool money for over-spending. (The lower draft picks for losing Nate and Bogey could hurt, some.)

 

The plan DD implemented worked very well, but it was polar opposite to what the early Theo, Ben and now Bloom plans and strategies. It is no coincidence that we only had one semi-meaningful prospect graduate between Devers in 2017 and Bello in late 2022. That's 5 years of basically nothing, as compared to so many homegrown studs we saw from Theo and all the talent we acquired by trading away much of Theo and Ben's farm by DD.

 

We've seen an uptick in farm infusion, some looking real good. We've seen additions like Whitlock, Wink and Schreiber, all with 2+ more years of team control start to change the idea that we cannot improve on increasing our young pitcher production. That area still has a long way to go, but we have moved in the right direction: something the later years Theo, Ben and DD did not do. Again, this is not apologizing, but just pointing out some good aspects of Bloom's reign both now and looking forward, on the pitching front.

 

The W-L results have sucked since the end of 2021- no doubt. With this budget, we should be winning more. That is on Bloom and the players who have not been meeting expectations based on their previous production and age curve projections. Maybe Cora is to blame for some of this under-performing.

 

Nobody is pretending JH does not have money. We just can't force him to spend, and using his reluctance to spend or overspend as the reason for us losing, seems like apologizing for underperforming players, to me. If these pitchers pitched like they could since the start of April, and our hitters hit like they could (and did in April,) we'd be in a playoff slot, right now with a budget re-set in place and 2024 looking brighter.

 

I still think JH will spend big, again. I've given up on projecting when that will be.

 

It’s not how much JH spends it’s how Bloom spends it that’s the problem

[mvp 78]

No CB Bucknor?

 

My replacement would be Eric Gregg, but I'm not currently in favor of digging up corpses to do my bidding.

[mvp 78]

It’s not how much JH spends it’s how Bloom spends it that’s the problem

 

It's both.

[moonslav59]

It’s not how much JH spends it’s how Bloom spends it that’s the problem

 

That is a separate issue and worthy of a separate debate.

 

The other issue was clearly related to your issue in 2020 and to a lesser extent before 2021, and IMO all the way to March 2022, when Bloom signed Story.

 

I can't really say Bloom botched the spending prior to Story. He was given a negative budget in 2020, and didn't come close to replacing the salaries of Betts, Half-Price and Porcello by 2021, and also had to deal with no Sale and his contract plus no ERod in 2020. To me, the judgment begins with Story and runs to now, but I'll start with the winter before 2022 until now, and here it is:

 

The only Big Contracts (3):

$314M/10 Devers: begins in 2024 and is hard to judge, right now.

$140M/6 Story: looks like a total failure but made some sense, at the time, but could be TBD.

$90M/5 Yoshida: looks good, so far, but it is very early.

 

The Moderate deals (4):

$32M/2 Jansen: looks good, to me.

$24M/3 Kike (I added 2 deals): looks bad, now, despite a solid second half to '21 and an awesome post season.

$21.7/2 Turner (assuming he takes the option): looks good, to me.

$17.5M/2 Martin: looks good, to me.

($18.8M/2 Barnes extension sucked)

(JBJ trade that added significant money to the budget sucked)

 

Shorterm $7-10M/1 or $14-20M/2 Deals

$10M/1 Richards: YUCK!

$10M Kluber: YUCK!

$7M Duval: TBD

$7M Wacha: looked good, to me

$10M/2 Paxton: TBD

 

$2.5-$5M/1 or $5-$14M/2 Deals

$5M/1 Hill: Looked good, to me

$8M/2 Diekman: Bad, but getting McGuire and shedding $5.5M helped.

$3M/1 Strahm: very good

 

I gave my comments, but I'm not trying to make excuses or apologies, here. I ask you to think about what expectations should be on the money spent on mostly moderate to low budget deals, and then opine on just how bad, okay or good Bloom did, in retrospect or maybe how these deals looked at the time of their signings.

 

Personally, I don't think he has been as horrible as many make him out to be, and feel our poor records have been related to other issues more than how many mistakes he's made on stab-in-the dark signings (not counting the Story deal, which was a major choice made.)

 

Looking at the list above, what is your grade?

 

Looking at that grade, how does those signings compare to the issue of Sale & his contract giving us next to nothing plus almost every big-named vet from 2018-2019 giving far less production from 2020-2023 or not even playing for much of that time?

 

How much does the farm giving us only Houck from mid 2017 to mid 2022 compare in effect on the team record and our budget?

 

Of the top of my head, I might say ...

 

40% lower production and injuries to our carry over stars

40% virtually no farm input for 5 years (3.5 in Bloom's era)

20% Blooms signings

 

(I did not mention Bloom's additions of Wink, Schreiber, Refsnyder and others at less than $3M/yr and his farm building or his budget improvements.)

 

This is his record just as much as the losing W-L record since 2021.

[Bellhorn04]

True, but he might end up costing $55M/4 not $10M/1, so that is major.

 

This is all wrong.

 

The team option is the expensive one. If they decline it, Wacha can take the cheap option.

 

It's similar to the Paxton deal.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/michael-wacha-13219/#:~:text=Michael%20Wacha%20signed%20a%204,a%20total%20salary%20of%20%247%2C500%2C000.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

If his option is worth exercising, his AAV doubles this year…

 

Hard to say, but even if he has a great year the Padres might decline the two options of $16 mill. In any case, that's entirely under their control.

 

If he gets hurt and can't pitch the next 3 years they could get burnt, but the AAV would remain at $6.5 mill.

[notin]

Hard to say, but even if he has a great year the Padres might decline the two options of $16 mill. In any case, that's entirely under their control.

 

If he gets hurt and can't pitch the next 3 years they could get burnt, but the AAV would remain at $6.5 mill.

 

And while that price is far from prohibitive, it could also be an issue for 3 more years. It’s not much less than Kluber, but 4 times the length…

[moonslav59]

This is all wrong.

 

The team option is the expensive one. If they decline it, Wacha can take the cheap option.

 

It's similar to the Paxton deal.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/michael-wacha-13219/#:~:text=Michael%20Wacha%20signed%20a%204,a%20total%20salary%20of%20%247%2C500%2C000.

 

I get it, but are you saying there is zero chance the team takes the $24M/2 or $55M/4 options?

[mvp 78]

Hard to say, but even if he has a great year the Padres might decline the two options of $16 mill. In any case, that's entirely under their control.

 

If he gets hurt and can't pitch the next 3 years they could get burnt, but the AAV would remain at $6.5 mill.

 

It'll be interesting to see if they pick up the team option. This is the first year he's been over 2 fWAR since 2017. Is it a safe bet for him to be a 2+ fWAR guy in '24 and '25? Of course the Padres don't seem to care about money at the moment.

 

And for how much we love the Padres defense and pitchers, they have the same record as the Red Sox.

[mvp 78]

And while that price is far from prohibitive, it could also be an issue for 3 more years. It’s not much less than Kluber, but 4 times the length…

 

Biggest difference between Kluber and Wacha is that Wacha is a relatively competent starting pitcher. Seems like Kluber's career is over?

[Bellhorn04]

And while that price is far from prohibitive, it could also be an issue for 3 more years. It’s not much less than Kluber, but 4 times the length…

 

True enough.