Fire Bloom .

[moonslav59]

In this list, you've included Kelly, Workman, Porcello, Beckett, AGon and CC.

 

Did they ever offer extending AGon/CC/Beckett from above what they already signed? I don't remember hearing this?

 

Kelly and Workman were relievers who left and nobody was all that concerned about.

 

Porcello? Did they offer an extension to him? Ever?

 

Were they talking about extending Nomar/Pedro/DLowe at all? I don't remember that happening either? I think they just saw those guys as getting older and letting them out the door.

 

My point wasn't about making offers. It was about the Sox long history of not being shy about letting stars and semi-stars go before their time was up with the Sox, or after they reached free agency.

 

Yes, one point I made was that they often make an offer to free agents-to-be and don't budge from it much, if at all, but I think this all fits into a longtime strategy of setting a value and not overpaying our own stars. Have we given a Price or CC type deal to any of our own stars? Maybe Sale and Agon, and Agon was here for a very short time before the extension was given.

[moonslav59]

Did they offer an extension to Adrian Beltre? This is the first I've heard of it!

 

You didn't hear it, because nobody said it.

[mvp 78]

You didn't hear it, because nobody said it.

 

Your post was:

 

"Under Henry, there is a long history of making an offer to a star who is nearing free agency, and then not budging or barely budging from that first offer. Here's a list of a bunch of guys:"

 

It's hard to read anything else from that post.

[Bellhorn04]

This is fine, but it’s also ancient history, and this is a whole new day, and time, and like I keep saying this is now a different JH.

 

It's not a different JH. That's where you're wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

Under Henry, there is a long history of making an offer to a star who is nearing free agency, and then not budging or barely budging from that first offer. Many of the departing stars went on to decline, pretty quickly. Others did well, but often their replacements did just as well or better for a lower cost.

DLowe

Nomar

Pedro

Damon

Beckett/AGon/CC

Papelbon

Ellsbury

Lester

Lackey

Kimbrel & Kelly

Porcello

Betts & Price

Workman

ERod

 

(Manny was a special case.)

 

Others not so entrenched in Sox lore or not mega stars:

Nixon

Mueller

Beltre

A Miller

Doubront

Vic

JBJ (then brought him back!)

Moreland

Beni

 

Some they might have wished they traded before their declines or not brought back:

Foulke

Lowell (just one bad last year)

Lugo

Youk

JD Drew

Pearce

Sale

 

 

In the first group, Lester was a big departure, changing their offer from $70 mill to $135 mill.

 

In the last group, add Schilling in 2008.

[moonslav59]

Your post was:

 

"Under Henry, there is a long history of making an offer to a star who is nearing free agency, and then not budging or barely budging from that first offer. Here's a list of a bunch of guys:"

 

It's hard to read anything else from that post.

 

True. I did not add what I meant to say. You are correct in understanding it as written. My bad.

[moonslav59]

In the first group, Lester was a big departure, changing their offer from $70 mill to $135 mill.

 

In the last group, add Schilling in 2008.

 

Good point on Lester.

 

IMO, the second offer was a sham, intended to placate the fans- knowing full well the Cubs offer was better.

 

I do not think they wanted Lester to take that last offer, but that is pure speculation, on my part.

 

Had they offered $135M earlier, Lester would have almost certainly stayed, IMO.

[mvp 78]

Good point on Lester.

 

IMO, the second offer was a sham, intended to placate the fans- knowing full well the Cubs offer was better.

 

I do not think they wanted Lester to take that last offer, but that is pure speculation, on my part.

 

Had they offered $135M earlier, Lester would have almost certainly stayed, IMO.

 

And I don't think that offer even placated fans. Fans in Boston are too smaht to fall for that kind of ********.

[Bellhorn04]

Good point on Lester.

 

IMO, the second offer was a sham, intended to placate the fans- knowing full well the Cubs offer was better.

 

I do not think they wanted Lester to take that last offer, but that is pure speculation, on my part.

 

We're so cynical about these things. And I'm including myself in that.

[mvp 78]

We're so cynical about these things. And I'm including myself in that.

 

This ownership group has done so much at this point just for PR (Tito's on pills, Popeye's Chicken scandal, etc.) that it's hard to believe anything they say at this point.

[moonslav59]

And I don't think that offer even placated fans. Fans in Boston are too smaht to fall for that kind of ********.

 

True, but they'd have gone more apeshit, if they never tried to come close to the Cubs offer.

 

[moonslav59]

We're so cynical about these things. And I'm including myself in that.

 

At that point in time, the 30+ year old pitcher was viewed with disdain.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This ownership group has done so much at this point just for PR (Tito's on pills, Popeye's Chicken scandal, etc.) that it's hard to believe anything they say at this point.

 

Do you think Sam Kennedy's kids even believe him when he says he's taking them to buy ice cream?

 

Waves at the front door: "Come on! We're going all out!"

 

...parked in the driveway is a Mr. Softee truck.

[mvp 78]

At that point in time, the 30+ year old pitcher was viewed with disdain.

 

Because so many under 30 starting pitchers make it to free agency...

[mvp 78]

True, but they'd have gone more apeshit, if they never tried to come close to the Cubs offer.

 

 

At some point, Henry figured out that we're all good little piggies and we're all just going to slop up whatever the Red Sox give us year in and year out because we were raised this way.

[mvp 78]

Do you think Sam Kennedy's kids even believe him when he says he's taking them to buy ice cream?

 

Waves at the front door: "Come on! We're going all out!"

 

...parked in the driveway is a Mr. Softee truck.

 

The Mr Softee truck is there to give them flu shots, right?

[moonslav59]

At some point, Henry figured out that we're all good little piggies and we're all just going to slop up whatever the Red Sox give us year in and year out because we were raised this way.

 

Revenues do go up and down based on winning or losing, so there is that, but you are right.

[mvp 78]

Revenues do go up and down based on winning or losing, so there is that, but you are right.

 

What is the goal of owning the Red Sox: yearly net income or the long term appreciation of the asset to sell off someday? Is it some combination of both?

 

We don't have real access to their all in budget, so it's hard to say what they think about a year like 2022. Maybe Henry is pissed? Maybe the Sox made enough and they aren't worried?

[Bellhorn04]

What is the goal of owning the Red Sox: yearly net income or the long term appreciation of the asset to sell off someday? Is it some combination of both?

 

We don't have real access to their all in budget, so it's hard to say what they think about a year like 2022. Maybe Henry is pissed? Maybe the Sox made enough and they aren't worried?

 

My guesses:

-Long term appreciation of the asset is the primary objective.

-Yearly net income matters, but the main thing is avoiding repeated losses.

-Henry is disappointed about 2022 but wasn't unprepared for it.

[moonslav59]

What is the goal of owning the Red Sox: yearly net income or the long term appreciation of the asset to sell off someday? Is it some combination of both?

 

We don't have real access to their all in budget, so it's hard to say what they think about a year like 2022. Maybe Henry is pissed? Maybe the Sox made enough and they aren't worried?

 

Good points. I do think driving fans away will ultimately hurt the bottom line, and JH knows this. Otherwise, he wouldn't be spending so much, unless winning is also a business priority despite any costs added outweighing revenue added.

[moonslav59]

My guesses:

 

-Henry is disappointed about 2022 but wasn't unprepared for it.

 

What I wonder more about is whether 2022 will affect his spending plans for 2023.

[mvp 78]

My guesses:

-Long term appreciation of the asset is the primary objective.

-Yearly net income matters, but the main thing is avoiding repeated losses.

-Henry is disappointed about 2022 but wasn't unprepared for it.

 

I think that sounds about right. I'm not entirely sure about #3 though. They were just in the ALCS. They always talk about being competitive. The fact that the team flat out blew chunks must have come as a little bit of a surprise to them.

[mvp 78]

What I wonder more about is whether 2022 will affect his spending plans for 2023.

 

He doesn't seem like the type of owner to turtle and reduce payroll because of one losing season. Maybe the best clue is to look at their response to the 2014 season.

[moonslav59]

He doesn't seem like the type of owner to turtle and reduce payroll because of one losing season. Maybe the best clue is to look at their response to the 2014 season.

 

Not reduce- spend more than originally planned.

 

I'm thinking the plan might have been to reset in 2023, but after such a crappy season, and fans being uneasy, he might spend more and reset in 2024, instead.

[Old Red]

It's not a different JH. That's where you're wrong.

 

Time, and money will tell if I’m wrong , or not, and nothing else.

[mvp 78]

Not reduce- spend more than originally planned.

 

I'm thinking the plan might have been to reset in 2023, but after such a crappy season, and fans being uneasy, he might spend more and reset in 2024, instead.

 

Why would they go over in 2022, just to get under in 2023?

[Old Red]

Not reduce- spend more than originally planned.

 

I'm thinking the plan might have been to reset in 2023, but after such a crappy season, and fans being uneasy, he might spend more and reset in 2024, instead.

 

I never hear Bloom, Kennedy, or JH talk about any of this stuff like reset, go all in, cliffs, or rebuild.

[dgalehouse]

We will soon find out if this year's results cause Henry to decide that he has to spend more money to put a better product on the field.

[moonslav59]

Why would they go over in 2022, just to get under in 2023?

 

That's not "why" they went over in 2022.

 

There is an obvious reason not to go over a second year in a row, and an even bigger one for the 3rd year. You know this.

[moonslav59]

I never hear Bloom, Kennedy, or JH talk about any of this stuff like reset, go all in, cliffs, or rebuild.

 

So?