Fire Bloom .

[mvp 78]

And here we are again. At the very least this time lets not insult the team by "low balling" verdugo. There's always an example out there of a guy taking less money, and we have yet to see Verdugo 23/24 seasons.

 

Also, Reynolds had more arbitration years bought out than you can go for Verdugo right now. That's always going to lower AAV.

 

Nimmo got 20AAV after going to FA. Nimmo had over 14 fWAR through his first 520 games. Verdugo isn't at that level. Verdugo has been a 2 fWAR guy year in and year out. He's been better over a SSS. 15AAV?

[Hugh2]

Reynolds’ DRS and UZR numbers suggest Reynolds does play CF, but don’t support that he can. At least not very well.

 

It’s not even certain Verdugo can get to that -19DRS mark, let alone do it in as few innings…

 

His defense also took a huge hit last year, when he was playing with injuries all year. This year he's healthy, and he looks much better out there.

[Hugh2]

Nimmo got 20AAV after going to FA. Nimmo had over 14 fWAR through his first 520 games. Verdugo isn't at that level. Verdugo has been a 2 fWAR guy year in and year out. He's been better over a SSS. 15AAV?

 

Verdugo also has a much better track record of staying healthy. If Nimmo had, he'd have got paid a lot more.

[Bellhorn04]

There's a lot of Recency Effect with Dugo pricing because of the great start he's having...

[mvp 78]

Reynolds’ DRS and UZR numbers suggest Reynolds does play CF, but don’t support that he can. At least not very well.

 

It’s not even certain Verdugo can get to that -19DRS mark, let alone do it in as few innings…

 

Verdugo had a -7 in CF in only 300 innings in 2021 you goober.

 

OAA Career (OF):

Reynolds 7

Verdugo -5

[Hugh2]

Maybe 5/90 is too high, but I'd be willing to wager that Verdugo will get more money than the figures you all are throwing around here. This happens every time.

[mvp 78]

There's a lot of Recency Effect with Dugo pricing because of the great start he's having...

 

Also lowballing him for past performance when he wasn't very good.

[mvp 78]

Maybe 5/90 is too high, but I'd be willing to wager that Verdugo will get more money than the figures you all are throwing around here. This happens every time.

 

Someone took their Flintstones Vitamins today.

[Hugh2]

Nimmo got 20AAV after going to FA. Nimmo had over 14 fWAR through his first 520 games. Verdugo isn't at that level. Verdugo has been a 2 fWAR guy year in and year out. He's been better over a SSS. 15AAV?

 

Interesting you use Nimmo, because most of his WAR is attributed to only two good seasons. He put up a 4.6 WAR his age 25 seasons and followed that up with a .09 and a 1.8. Verdguo has already bettered his age 26 and 27 season the last two years and he still has all of this year to play. If he has a few good years like Nimmo did his last two and goes to free agency with a better track record than Nimmo had of staying healthy AND factoring in two years of inflation he would get more than Nimmo.

 

It all comes down to what Verdugo wants. If he wants to stay here he will take a deal, if he wants to go to free agency he will get overpaid, and if he performs like he is now or something in between he's easily making 100+

[Hugh2]

Someone took their Flintstones Vitamins today.

 

You don't need vitamins when you have a perfect diet. I'am a little effing grouchy though, I drove all the way up to Boston last night to watch the Celtics blow game one.

[moonslav59]

I'm waiting for someone to say we should have locked him up before this breakout season.

[mvp 78]

Interesting you use Nimmo, because most of his WAR is attributed to only two good seasons. He put up a 4.6 WAR his age 25 seasons and followed that up with a .09 and a 1.8. Verdguo has already bettered his age 26 and 27 season the last two years and he still has all of this year to play. If he has a few good years like Nimmo did his last two and goes to free agency with a better track record than Nimmo had of staying healthy AND factoring in two years of inflation he would get more than Nimmo.

 

It all comes down to what Verdugo wants. If he wants to stay here he will take a deal, if he wants to go to free agency he will get overpaid, and if he performs like he is now or something in between he's easily making 100+

 

Well, he hasn't had a few good years like Nimmo. He's been a 2 fWAR guy. He's had some good SSS's over the years. I'm enjoying the current ride, but don't expect him to end the season with 6 fWAR or 9 walk off hits.

[mvp 78]

I'm waiting for someone to say we should have locked him up before this breakout season.

 

What about the "if they extend him, he's just going to go back to sucking afterwards" post?

[Hugh2]

Well, he hasn't had a few good years like Nimmo. He's been a 2 fWAR guy. He's had some good SSS's over the years. I'm enjoying the current ride, but don't expect him to end the season with 6 fWAR or 9 walk off hits.

 

And if you take out Nimmo year last year he was a 2.5 WAR guy, he had a career year in a walk year. What kind of payday does Verdugo get if he does that? how much more is it if he does it two years in a row?

 

I'm not saying he's a 6 wAR guy, but in his prime do I think he can have a few seasons where he puts up 4-5? absolutely. Maybe you think that's dumb because you think how he is playing is a flash in the pan right now. I think Verdugo will come back down to earth but I also think he could be something in between, healthy, and in the middle of his prime.

 

I suppose it all comes down to whether or not you believe in the player, because at the end of the day if Verdugo has two good years here, no one is going to give a s*** what his WAR was when he was 23.

[Hugh2]

Here's the thing.....you don't think this is how things play out between team and player? "well you are worth this" "well we think my client is worth more than that, he's entering his prime" yada yada yada. If you don't budge, if you don't have incriminating photos of said player, or he isn't the small margin of players willing to take pay cuts to stay in their hometown (where is Verdugo from?) then you're going to have to loosen up that wallet a little bit. Like I said, it all depends on what you think the player will be moving forward. I think Verdugo is just entering his prime and his next 3-5 years will absolutely be his most productive.

[vegasbob]

Here's the thing.....you don't think this is how things play out between team and player? "well you are worth this" "well we think my client is worth more than that, he's entering his prime" yada yada yada. If you don't budge, if you don't have incriminating photos of said player, or he isn't the small margin of players willing to take pay cuts to stay in their hometown (where is Verdugo from?) then you're going to have to loosen up that wallet a little bit. Like I said, it all depends on what you think the player will be moving forward. I think Verdugo is just entering his prime and his next 3-5 years will absolutely be his most productive.

 

Verdugo grew up in Tucson AZ, was drafted by Dodgers out of Sagauro HS in 2014. Identifies as Mexican per the WBC participation. Traded to Boston for some other guy . So my guess is that if hometown meant anything, Alex will go to Diamondbacks after 2024.

Good thing "hometown" doesn't mean much. I would be surprised if the Sox make any contractual move on him this season, but should evaluate him closely next winter for a new contract. He will cost them a lot more than the $6.3MM he signed for this year.

[mvp 78]

And if you take out Nimmo year last year he was a 2.5 WAR guy, he had a career year in a walk year. What kind of payday does Verdugo get if he does that? how much more is it if he does it two years in a row?

 

I'm not saying he's a 6 wAR guy, but in his prime do I think he can have a few seasons where he puts up 4-5? absolutely. Maybe you think that's dumb because you think how he is playing is a flash in the pan right now. I think Verdugo will come back down to earth but I also think he could be something in between, healthy, and in the middle of his prime.

 

I suppose it all comes down to whether or not you believe in the player, because at the end of the day if Verdugo has two good years here, no one is going to give a s*** what his WAR was when he was 23.

 

Ignoring Nimmo's 2022:

2018 - 4.8 fWAR

2021 - 3.4 fWAR

 

Verdugo has never had more than 1.9 fWAR in a season with the Sox.

[mvp 78]

Here's the thing.....you don't think this is how things play out between team and player? "well you are worth this" "well we think my client is worth more than that, he's entering his prime" yada yada yada. If you don't budge, if you don't have incriminating photos of said player, or he isn't the small margin of players willing to take pay cuts to stay in their hometown (where is Verdugo from?) then you're going to have to loosen up that wallet a little bit. Like I said, it all depends on what you think the player will be moving forward. I think Verdugo is just entering his prime and his next 3-5 years will absolutely be his most productive.

 

You're projecting off a SSS. He's a good player, but he's not a 20M player. If that's what he wants, the Sox should absolutely trade him. If he keeps this up over the next 2 seasons, then it's a different conversation. You don't project an increase in production and pay the player MORE for it.

[moonslav59]

What about the "if they extend him, he's just going to go back to sucking afterwards" post?

 

That's a given.

[Bellhorn04]

That's a given.

 

We're all a bunch of armchair wizards.

[MADSTORK]

Don’t let this thread die my friends

22 18 is far cry from a playoff appearance

 

Fools gold

 

Tradeable assets Mr.Sale and Turner but I forgot Orlando is still in charge

[Hugh2]

Don’t let this thread die my friends

22 18 is far cry from a playoff appearance

 

Fools gold

 

Tradeable assets Mr.Sale and Turner but I forgot Orlando is still in charge

 

Didn’t take much to crawl out from under that rock huh?

[Maxbialystock]

You're projecting off a SSS. He's a good player, but he's not a 20M player. If that's what he wants, the Sox should absolutely trade him. If he keeps this up over the next 2 seasons, then it's a different conversation. You don't project an increase in production and pay the player MORE for it.

 

I of course agree he's not yet a $20M player. But here's the thing. By the time a player has demonstrated he's consistent enough to merit $20 x 5 (or whatever), he's used up those really good years. My own theory is that players play their best before 30 and are paid the most after 30.

 

One glaring exception to that rule is Wander Franco. He's 22 (born in 2001) and has an 11 year $182M contract (guaranteed of course). It's probably less than he's worth, but 22 is really young to be getting that big a contract. If he is careful how he spends/invests that money, he is set for life, and he's been in MLB for just 2 years.

[Hugh2]

Let’s also keep in mind that $20 in two years will buy you what about $17 million gets you right now. You don’t think someone would give him 4/$17.5 now if he was a free agent? Maybe he takes that number for an extra year. Personally I wouldn’t mind paying a few extra a year for him to keep the contract less than 5 years. Let the 5th year be his final arbitration year. Which might be pretty expensive. $100 might be too hefty, but 5/$85 isn’t crazy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For those who once thought the Bloom Era would be defined by this past winter (with holes to fill, and money on hand to fill them) ...

 

... maybe the real make-or-break will now be this summer (with holes to fill, and vets on hand to trade for prospects)...

[mvp 78]

Don’t let this thread die my friends

22 18 is far cry from a playoff appearance

 

Fools gold

 

Tradeable assets Mr.Sale and Turner but I forgot Orlando is still in charge

 

Even after getting swept, they are 0.5 back of a Wild Card spot. As of now, they are on pace for 87 wins.

[Old Red]

Even after getting swept, they are 0.5 back of a Wild Card spot. As of now, they are on pace for 87 wins.

 

That’s one way to look at it, but to see both sides would be to say that even after a 8 game winning streak they are still in last place, and still 1/2 game out of a wildcard.

[moonslav59]

Glass half full vs Old Red.

[Old Red]

Glass half full vs Old Red.

 

The JINX with a half truth. Why is it so hard to tell the WHOLE truth. I was told last week to live in the moment when the Red Sox were on a winning streak, but now when that moment is in a 1-5 streak it’s a different story.

[moonslav59]

The JINX with a half truth. Why is it so hard to tell the WHOLE truth. I was told last week to live in the moment when the Red Sox were on a winning streak, but now when that moment is in a 1-5 streak it’s a different story.

 

You might convince yourself you see and tell "the whole story."

 

BTW, the whole truth is there is no such thing as a jinx, and I never put any game in the win column before it was over, even if there was such a thing as a jinx, but the whole truth is some believe in jinx.