2022 Bullpen Thread

[moonslav59]

We are 45-36 (9 games over .500)

We have a 79% chance of making the playoffs (3.6% to win the WS.)

 

OPS Leaders

.962 Devers

.908 Duran

.887 Refsnyder

.872 JD

.856 Bogey

.756 Vaz

.731 Cordero

.725 Story

.695 Verdugo

.662 Arroyo

.613 Kike

.610 Dalbec

.572 JBJ

.478 Plawecki

 

RBI (PAs w RISP)

54 Story (92)

46 Devers (79)

43 Verdugo (100)

34 Bogey (100)

33 JD (99)

31 Vaz (74)

25 JBJ (76)

24 Kike (61)

22 Cordero (47)

18 Dalbec (75)

13 Arroyo (36)

10 Refsnyder (15)

6 Duran (17)

5 Plawecki (22)

 

BA Leaders

.329 Duran (80 PAs)

.327 Devers (347)

.318 Bogey (327)

.312 JD (311)

.308 Refsnyder (62)

.290 Vaz (235)

.264 Verdugo (313)

.255 Cordero (183)

.229 Arroyo (120)

.224 Story (316)

.211 JBJ (236)

.209 Kike (238)

.208 Dalbec (221)

.151 Plawecki (86)

 

IP (ERA)

100 Pivetta 3.68

71 Hill 4.20 IL

70 Wacha 2.69 to IL?

68 Eovaldi 3.16 IL

49 Houck 3.47

49 Whitlock 3.51

31 Davis 2.30

30 Brasier 4.15

29 Sawamura 2.45

29 Danish 3.99

29 Diekman 2.83

27 Schreiber 0.66

26 Winckowski 3.12

25 Crawford 5.04

25 Strahm 4.01

25 Robles 5.84 (16 pitchers with 24.2 IP+)

17 Barnes 7.94 IL

13 Valdez 5.40

9 Seabold 8.31

1 Plawecki 0.00 (20 pitchers with 1+ IP)

 

Out of our 16 top IP pitchers, only 3 have an ERA+ below 101

72 Robles

84 Crawford

99 Hill

 

Top ERA+

639 Schreiber

183 Davis

171 Sawamura

155 Wacha

149 Diekman

135 Wink

132 Nate

121 Houck

119 Whitlock

113 Pivetta

105 Danish

105 Strahm

101 Brasier

 

OPS Against (.679 Staff)

.392 Schreiber

.570 Sawamura

.573 Valdez

.621 Wacha

.622 Davis

.626 Houck

.632 Danish

.651 Pivetta

.660 Strahm

.663 Whitlock

 

.707 Winckowski

.709 Diekman

.725 Eovaldi

.727 Crawford

.753 Hill

.758 Brasier

.784 Barnes

.831 Robales

1.132 Seabold

[Bellhorn04]

Shouldn't these posts be in a Realistic thread?

 

Let's try to keep this forum in its usual pristine state of organization!

[Maxbialystock]

We are 45-36 (9 games over .500)

We have a 79% chance of making the playoffs (3.6% to win the WS.)

 

OPS Leaders

.962 Devers

.908 Duran

.887 Refsnyder

.872 JD

.856 Bogey

.756 Vaz

.731 Cordero

.725 Story

.695 Verdugo

.662 Arroyo

.613 Kike

.610 Dalbec

.572 JBJ

.478 Plawecki

 

RBI (PAs w RISP)

54 Story (92)

46 Devers (79)

43 Verdugo (100)

34 Bogey (100)

33 JD (99)

31 Vaz (74)

25 JBJ (76)

24 Kike (61)

22 Cordero (47)

18 Dalbec (75)

13 Arroyo (36)

10 Refsnyder (15)

6 Duran (17)

5 Plawecki (22)

 

BA Leaders

.329 Duran (80 PAs)

.327 Devers (347)

.318 Bogey (327)

.312 JD (311)

.308 Refsnyder (62)

.290 Vaz (235)

.264 Verdugo (313)

.255 Cordero (183)

.229 Arroyo (120)

.224 Story (316)

.211 JBJ (236)

.209 Kike (238)

.208 Dalbec (221)

.151 Plawecki (86)

 

IP (ERA)

100 Pivetta 3.68

71 Hill 4.20 IL

70 Wacha 2.69 to IL?

68 Eovaldi 3.16 IL

49 Houck 3.47

49 Whitlock 3.51

31 Davis 2.30

30 Brasier 4.15

29 Sawamura 2.45

29 Danish 3.99

29 Diekman 2.83

27 Schreiber 0.66

26 Winckowski 3.12

25 Crawford 5.04

25 Strahm 4.01

25 Robles 5.84 (16 pitchers with 24.2 IP+)

17 Barnes 7.94 IL

13 Valdez 5.40

9 Seabold 8.31

1 Plawecki 0.00 (20 pitchers with 1+ IP)

 

Out of our 16 top IP pitchers, only 3 have an ERA+ below 101

72 Robles

84 Crawford

99 Hill

 

Top ERA+

639 Schreiber

183 Davis

171 Sawamura

155 Wacha

149 Diekman

135 Wink

132 Nate

121 Houck

119 Whitlock

113 Pivetta

105 Danish

105 Strahm

101 Brasier

 

OPS Against (.679 Staff)

.392 Schreiber

.570 Sawamura

.573 Valdez

.621 Wacha

.622 Davis

.626 Houck

.632 Danish

.651 Pivetta

.660 Strahm

.663 Whitlock

 

.707 Winckowski

.709 Diekman

.725 Eovaldi

.727 Crawford

.753 Hill

.758 Brasier

.784 Barnes

.831 Robales

1.132 Seabold

 

Agree with bellhorn04, but these are just terrific stats.

[moonslav59]

Shouldn't these posts be in a Realistic thread?

 

Let's try to keep this forum in its usual pristine state of organization!

 

Yes. I will copy & Paste.

[notin]

Robles DFAd to put Bello on the active roster.

 

I assume his 40 man roster spot will remain vacant for Sale…

[Old Red]

Robles DFAd to put Bello on the active roster.

 

I assume his 40 man roster spot will remain vacant for Sale…

 

Cora used Robles right to the end.

[Maxbialystock]

Cora used Robles right to the end.

 

And correctly, one should hasten to add. When Robles went in for the 7th, it was an unwinnable game (7-3 at that point) in a sequence of 17 straight games without a day off. This was game 5. In game 1 the Sox bullpen has to pitch 3.1 innings, in game 2, 2 innings, in game 3, 7 innings, in game 4, 9 innings, and last night 3.1 innings.

 

Up ahead, with no break, are 5 more games with the Rays and 7 against the Yankees.

[Old Red]

And correctly, one should hasten to add. When Robles went in for the 7th, it was an unwinnable game (7-3 at that point) in a sequence of 17 straight games without a day off. This was game 5. In game 1 the Sox bullpen has to pitch 3.1 innings, in game 2, 2 innings, in game 3, 7 innings, in game 4, 9 innings, and last night 3.1 innings.

 

Up ahead, with no break, are 5 more games with the Rays and 7 against the Yankees.

 

Unwinnable game? Seems to me Story came up in the 9th being the tying run. I would hasten to add that Robles should have been DFA’d long ago, or not resigned in the first place. Nobody else wanted him except Bloom.

[Maxbialystock]

Unwinnable game? Seems to me Story came up in the 9th being the tying run. I would hasten to add that Robles should have been DFA’d long ago, or not resigned in the first place. Nobody else wanted him except Bloom.

 

Not just Story in the 9th. Sox had tons of opportunities last night and ended up 2 for 12 with RISP. After 2 runs in the 1st inning, and 1 in the 2d, the Sox scored 1 run in the next 7 innings. Rays pitching was solid when needed.

 

As for Story, after the solo dinger in the 2d inning, he went 0 for 4 with 3 K's and was probably happy with that popup to end the game.

[illinoisredsox]

Unwinnable game? Seems to me Story came up in the 9th being the tying run. I would hasten to add that Robles should have been DFA’d long ago, or not resigned in the first place. Nobody else wanted him except Bloom.

 

A 4 run lead going into the top of the 7th means the Rays are going to win 95% of the time (https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#V.-4.7.0.1.0.0). Could it be done? Yeah. Is it even remotely likely? No.

 

Max's point was that is the situation you use your Robles type relievers. If they do great and give you a shot, fine. If they suck and make it worse, you've saved your better pen guys for a more likely win situation.

 

Now I think everyone here agrees Robles should have been jettisoned a while ago. At the very least, he should have ceased being used in high leverage situations quite a while ago, as he hasn't done anything positive in them for a least a couple months.

[illinoisredsox]

Not just Story in the 9th. Sox had tons of opportunities last night and ended up 2 for 12 with RISP. After 2 runs in the 1st inning, and 1 in the 2d, the Sox scored 1 run in the next 7 innings. Rays pitching was solid when needed.

 

As for Story, after the solo dinger in the 2d inning, he went 0 for 4 with 3 K's and was probably happy with that popup to end the game.

 

And only 1 of those 2 scored a run, Bogey's homer in the first. The other hit was JD infield single in the 5th, though to be fair, Franco made a great play to keep Duran from scoring there. Bogey did add a sac fly for the last run.

 

Meanwhile, the Rays went something like 5-13 with RISP and also had a sac fly and a run producing groundout.

[moonslav59]

Robles DFAd to put Bello on the active roster.

 

I assume his 40 man roster spot will remain vacant for Sale…

 

About time!

[iortiz]

Robles DFAd to put Bello on the active roster.

 

I assume his 40 man roster spot will remain vacant for Sale…

 

Keeping Robles was unbearable and unsustainable.

[a700hitter]

Robles DFAd to put Bello on the active roster.

 

I assume his 40 man roster spot will remain vacant for Sale…

Overdue

[a700hitter]

Unwinnable game? Seems to me Story came up in the 9th being the tying run. I would hasten to add that Robles should have been DFA’d long ago, or not resigned in the first place. Nobody else wanted him except Bloom.

The only person happy about Robles’ signing other than Robles was his personal trainer.

[Kimmi]

Actually, this whole over and under .500 thing makes little mathematical or predictive sense. In order, here are the winning percentages in the AL:

 

1. Yankees 74%

2. Astros 63%

3. Red Sox 57%

4. Jays 56%

5. Twins 55%

6. Rays 54%

7. Guards 53%

8. Rangers 49%

9. Angels 47%

10. White Sox 47%

11. Mariners 47%

12. Orioles 46%

13. Tigers 39%

14. Royals 37%

15. Athletics 33%

 

If you take away the Yankees at the top and the A's at the bottom, in between are 13 teams who win on average between 6 of 10 games and 4 of 10 games. Each of the 13 has a decent chance of taking a series against the other 12 teams, as well as the A's.

 

What makes it tough for the Sox, Jays, Rays, and O's is that each of them has to play the freaking Yankees 19 times. The AL East Division is far and away the best Division in MLB and skews things against the other 4 teams--the ones not from NYC. Thus it is all the more amazing that the Sox, Jays, and Rays all have winning records and the Orioles are tougher than they have been.

 

In terms of positioning for the end of the season, the Twins, Guardians, and Astros--all teams with winning records-- have big advantages over the Sox, Jays, and Rays, also teams with winning records, simply because they don't play the Yankees as often. I might add that it's also daunting that the Sox, Jays, and Rays all play each other 19 times--and this year even the Orioles (@46%) aren't pushovers. They've taken 3 of 5 from the Sox so far.

 

While I agree the road ahead is tough, I do not agree that the AL is knee deep in "bottom feeders." Also, to date the Sox have taken 2 of 3 from the Astros, split with the Braves (58% winning %), taken 6/7 from the Mariners (47%), taken 2 of 3 from the Cardinals (55%), and swept the Guardians (53%).

 

Also this. Too many Talksoxers appear to believe that the Jays completely and utterly dominate the woebegone Sox. This was true in the early part of the season. But in this just concluded series in Toronto, I contend that the Sox win the series, despite having to start Seabold in game 1, if Houck had taken his freaking vaccination--and Alex Cora emphatically agrees with me, not the rest of you.

 

Be cautious about disagreeing with me. Last night I was the only one on the game thread who said--before the 10th inning--the Sox would win.

 

In baseball, any team is likely to beat any other team on any given day more so than in the other sports. It is difficult to sweep series, even against the bottom teams. Nothing should be taken away from the Sox during their nice run since mid-May. As I said, they did what they had to do.

 

Considering that they play each other 19 times each, I think that it's impressive that 4 out of 5 teams from the AL East would currently be in the playoffs. I agree with you that Baltimore is not the doormat that they used to be. They have a pretty decent bullpen.

 

I like to look at run differential. Every team in the AL East besides Baltimore has a positive run differential. In the AL Central, only Minnesota has a positive differential. In the West, Houston, Seattle, and Texas have positive run differentials. Based on that, I am more inclined to think that a team from the West might sneak into one of the wildcard spots over a team from the Central, but I still like the chances of all 3 wildcard teams coming from our division.

[Kimmi]

Listen up for another dictum from Chairman Max--

 

Knock off the whining about the bullpen because, without making a single trade or acquisition, the Sox already have the ingredients for a good one.

 

When Whitlock returns, which should be soon, he will join the bullpen.

 

Whitlock, Schreiber, who has been unbelievably good this season and who shut down the the heart of the Jays order twice in this recent series, and Mr. Unvaccinated will take care of all 8th and 9th inning situations in winnable games. That's the sore spot everyone complains about, and those three can make it a strength. Now and then, they could even handle the 7th inning as well.

 

I think any of them could close. My personal preference would be Schreiber, but Houck now has six straight saves and no blown saves and should keep the job. Besides, there's bound to be a game or two when he needs to rest.

 

Until Sale and Eovaldi return, the above will put some pressure on the rotation, currently Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Winckowski (who has indeed buckled down), and A Player To Be Named Later. Not great, but not terrible.

 

As for the rest of the bullpen, I'm no expert, but think Davis, Strahm, Danish, Brasier, Valdez, and even Sawamura would suffice--although I like that new guy Plawecki

 

For you doubting thomases, consider this: if Houck had been available vs. the Jays, the Sox win the series. Adding Whitlock will seal the deal.

 

I think that our bullpen could use a little help, even after the return of Whitlock.

 

But I agree with you that the bullpen situation is not as bad as most people would have us believe.

[moonslav59]

I think that our bullpen could use a little help, even after the return of Whitlock.

 

But I agree with you that the bullpen situation is not as bad as most people would have us believe.

 

It's not just Whitlock being added to the pen. When we get other starters back, we'll have the option of moving Hill, Wink, Seabold, Crawford and or Bello to the pen.

 

Maybe we trade a marginal pen arm or demote Danish. Right now, with Robles gone, we don't have many active pen arms stinking up the place.

 

OPS Against Last 28 days (last 14 listed as well)

.348 Schreiber (.217)

.439 Brasier (.705)

.525 Diekman (.465)

.562 Crawford (.255)

.628 Davis (.182)

.628 Danish (.466)

.636 Sawamura (.408)

.667 Houck (.568)

.833 Strahm (.833)

(.623 Wink to pen?)

 

That's 8 RP'ers doing well in the last 14 and last 28 together.

 

Strahm is not one of those 8, but I doubt we give up on him, this quickly.

 

 

[a700hitter]

I guess that Barnes has been put out to pasture. I have heard nothing about him. He maximized his asset.

[moonslav59]

I guess that Barnes has been put out to pasture. I have heard nothing about him. He maximized his asset.

 

He's on the IL.

[JDavis76]

He's on the IL.

 

I'm waiting for the moonslop that shows us that the sox pitching wasn't really all that terrible the past few nights......

[jgar658]

I'm waiting for the moonslop that shows us that the sox pitching wasn't really all that terrible the past few nights......

 

Bello is not Pedro. Last night Bello was a bit like a batting practice pitcher.

I was massively disappointed.

[moonslav59]

Bello is not Pedro. Last night Bello was a bit like a batting practice pitcher.

I was massively disappointed.

 

It’s one game, but yes, disappointing.

[notin]

It’s one game, but yes, disappointing.

 

Winckowski didn’t exactly dazzle in his debut either. And that was against Baltimore. But he has improved since.

 

I suppose like Winckowski, maybe Bello had trouble adjusting to the different baseballs…

[Nick]

They used to rave about Nathan Eovaldi' 100mph fastball. But every time I watched, the exit velocity off of his fastball was 100+mph. He now has five pitches with pretty good command.

 

Anymore, 96-100 means nothing unless you have something else to go with it.

 

Ecks constantly mentioned last night that Bello was a two pitch thrower, fastball and changeup. I thought he also had another plus pitch in breaking ball. I didn't see much of it.

 

Rays simply sat on his fastball.

 

But as posters have said, only one start. He did induce some groundballs thought. I think that was something positive to build on.

[Larry Cook]

They used to rave about Nathan Eovaldi' 100mph fastball. But every time I watched, the exit velocity off of his fastball was 100+mph. He now has five pitches with pretty good command.

 

Anymore, 96-100 means nothing unless you have something else to go with it.

 

Ecks constantly mentioned last night that Bello was a two pitch thrower, fastball and changeup. I thought he also had another plus pitch in breaking ball. I didn't see much of it.

 

Rays simply sat on his fastball.

 

But as posters have said, only one start. He did induce some groundballs thought. I think that was something positive to build on.

 

The Bello that pitched last night was just the Bello I have been watching at Worcester. Last night he was nibbling and missing all over the place. He is best when he lets it rip.

 

I also did not see the slider last night. Needless to say, I think he learned a lot from this experience and will pitch better next time out.

[moonslav59]

The Bello that pitched last night was just the Bello I have been watching at Worcester. Last night he was nibbling and missing all over the place. He is best when he lets it rip.

 

I also did not see the slider last night. Needless to say, I think he learned a lot from this experience and will pitch better next time out.

 

With Sale and Nate about to be activated, I think Bello gets sent down, for now. His next ML experience may be as a RP'er.

 

For now, I think Wink and Seabold might be ahead of Bello on the rotation depth chart.

[Old Red]

With Sale and Nate about to be activated, I think Bello gets sent down, for now. His next ML experience may be as a RP'er.

 

For now, I think Wink and Seabold might be ahead of Bello on the rotation depth chart.

 

Bello is pitching Monday in Tampa. Try to keep up with what’s going on.Also Bloom says no BP for Bello.

[JDavis76]

Bello is pitching Monday in Tampa. Try to keep up with what’s going on.Also Bloom says no BP for Bello.

 

[Maxbialystock]

They used to rave about Nathan Eovaldi' 100mph fastball. But every time I watched, the exit velocity off of his fastball was 100+mph. He now has five pitches with pretty good command.

 

Anymore, 96-100 means nothing unless you have something else to go with it.

 

Ecks constantly mentioned last night that Bello was a two pitch thrower, fastball and changeup. I thought he also had another plus pitch in breaking ball. I didn't see much of it.

 

Rays simply sat on his fastball.

 

But as posters have said, only one start. He did induce some groundballs thought. I think that was something positive to build on.

 

Last night Cole's fastball was very effective against us--except for the low ones (and changeup) vs. Devers. Duran was destroyed by fastballs last night.

 

Bello's slider comes and goes, and at this point that's a problem for someone who wants to pitch at this level. Fastball and changeup won't do it. Apparently, he also doesn't have a curve/knucklecurve. On the plus side is that he keeps improving each year.