2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[dgalehouse]

Good point.....He's better at cashing in players with likely career bests.

 

I have no inclination paying either Xander or Devers $30M at this time. They both probably will be traded at some point.

If you think the offense is bad now , let J.D. opt out and let Xander and Devers walk , or trade them both. And what is left?

[moonslav59]

If you think the offense is bad now , let J.D. opt out and let Xander and Devers walk , or trade them both. And what is left?

 

A lot of money to sign other stars?

[jacksonianmarch]

Good point.....He's better at cashing in players with likely career bests.

 

I have no inclination paying either Xander or Devers $30M at this time. They both probably will be traded at some point.

 

In a year where offense is down, a guy like JD Martinez should have a market. Bloom has shown a willingness to eat money (see Bradley for Renfroe) to get better prospects. With the DH being an entire league thing now, his market will be big. I actually think a deal to the SF Giants makes a ton of sense. They have their offensive issues and could use a middle of the order bat. They don't have a set DH and they definitely have their eyes on a title. This is the most obvious fit I can see.

 

The markey for Bogaerts will be wide. Any team could use him, so predicting his location would be difficult to do. Same with Devers. Returns for Devers would be bigger, clearly, due to the extra year of control. On the pitching side, Eovaldi would fetch a pretty penny as a rental. And if Wacha continues pitching this way, he will have a market too.

[dgalehouse]

In a year where offense is down, a guy like JD Martinez should have a market. Bloom has shown a willingness to eat money (see Bradley for Renfroe) to get better prospects. With the DH being an entire league thing now, his market will be big. I actually think a deal to the SF Giants makes a ton of sense. They have their offensive issues and could use a middle of the order bat. They don't have a set DH and they definitely have their eyes on a title. This is the most obvious fit I can see.

 

The markey for Bogaerts will be wide. Any team could use him, so predicting his location would be difficult to do. Same with Devers. Returns for Devers would be bigger, clearly, due to the extra year of control. On the pitching side, Eovaldi would fetch a pretty penny as a rental. And if Wacha continues pitching this way, he will have a market too.

 

I am sure you will sleep better if the Sox deal away all of the talent.

[jacksonianmarch]

A lot of money to sign other stars?

 

A lot of money to build around a core. You need a core. It is hard to develop one and when one core rots out or starts to get expensive, you need a new one. Bogey is about to walk. Devers is going to as well. May as well get some real blue chip prospects to build around. Casas is a building block. Story will be one too. Yorke may prove useful. Mayer may rocket through the ranks. Binelas and Hamilton are looking good. The pitching side is looking better as well. Ultimately, it may be better for the sox in the long run to cash in on expiring deals, punt for a year or two and then reload

[jacksonianmarch]

I am sure you will sleep better if the Sox deal away all of the talent.

 

Actually, I will sleep better if the sox deal away prospects to sure up a team that stinks. I respect Bloom's abilities and I am pretty sure he realized he got lucky last year. If he really thought this sox team was capable of a title, he wouldnt have plugged holes with chewing gum and duct tape

 

He will rebuild the sox into a very good team in 2 years, IMO. Now that the bloom is off the rose and this team seems to have shown its true colors, you will see a selloff like no other

Edited May 2, 2022 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

A lot of money to build around a core. You need a core. It is hard to develop one and when one core rots out or starts to get expensive, you need a new one. Bogey is about to walk. Devers is going to as well. May as well get some real blue chip prospects to build around. Casas is a building block. Story will be one too. Yorke may prove useful. Mayer may rocket through the ranks. Binelas and Hamilton are looking good. The pitching side is looking better as well. Ultimately, it may be better for the sox in the long run to cash in on expiring deals, punt for a year or two and then reload

 

Keeping Bogey. JD, Devers and Big Nate at market rates is not much different from signing free agents to replace them, in theory.

 

It's not much different from the Yanks keeping Judge. Was it prudent to extend LeMahieu? (It looks good now, but wait until 2025-2026.)

 

Look, I'm not saying I want all these guys gone. I'm driving the Devers Forevers bandwagon, and I wanted us to offer Betts 10-12 years. We may end up keeping Eovaldi. Who knows what the market is for JD.

 

I think we'll spend big, this coming winter, but I think we may be looking more at the window starting around 2024 or 2025 (Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Bello, Walter, Gonzalez and maybe others plus some key FAs.)

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Keeping Bogey. JD, Devers and Big Nate at market rates is not much different from signing free agents to replace them, in theory.

 

It's not much different from the Yanks keeping Judge. Was it prudent to extend LeMahieu? (It looks good now, but wait until 2025-2026.)

 

Look, I'm not saying I want all these guys gone. I'm driving the Devers Forevers bandwagon, and I wanted us to offer Betts 10-12 years. We may end up keeping Eovaldi. Who knows what the market is for JD.

 

I think we'll spend big, this coming winter, but I think we may be looking more at the window starting around 2024 or 2025 (Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Bello, Walter, Gonzalez and maybe others plus some key FAs.)

 

 

I agree with that. I think the sox plan is long term and winning last year actually screwed up their timeline. I think Bloom's plan was to deal off Xander, JDM, and ERod last year but you cannot dismantle a team that is playoff bound. This year is a different story.

[moonslav59]

Actually, I will sleep better if the sox deal away prospects to sure up a team that stinks.

 

That's how I felt when you guys traded away prospects.

[moonslav59]

I agree with that. I think the sox plan is long term and winning last year actually screwed up their timeline. I think Bloom's plan was to deal off Xander, JDM, and ERod last year but you cannot dismantle a team that is playoff bound. This year is a different story.

 

The season is still young, but certainly we could head down tis road, and in a way, it would help our longer term goals.

[jacksonianmarch]

The season is still young, but certainly we could head down tis road, and in a way, it would help our longer term goals.

 

Yes it is. But the sox needed to be front runners. They don't have the talent to make enormous runs. They couldn't afford an 8 game deficit by May 1.

[moonslav59]

Yes it is. But the sox needed to be front runners. They don't have the talent to make enormous runs. They couldn't afford an 8 game deficit by May 1.

 

We're like 3-4 games behind the playoffs while playing as badly as possible.

 

I'm not predicting glory, but it won't take much to get back in the WC race.

 

A lot can happen before July. I seriously doubt this offense will stay this bad.

 

It's easy to look at the Sox and say we see no signs of turning things around, but baseball is a long season.

[jacksonianmarch]

It is a long season. And things do change. Right now the Sox are getting great pitching, something we know won’t last, and are blowing it by going silent with the sticks. When the pen finally cries uncle from overuse, what will things look like then? Even if the bats rebound, you’ll be in slugfests every night. Hard to make up 8 games when your staff gives up 5 a game

[moonslav59]

It is a long season. And things do change. Right now the Sox are getting great pitching, something we know won’t last, and are blowing it by going silent with the sticks. When the pen finally cries uncle from overuse, what will things look like then? Even if the bats rebound, you’ll be in slugfests every night. Hard to make up 8 games when your staff gives up 5 a game

 

You sound pretty sure of yourself and the Sox future. You sure didn't sound like this in March, and just one month has solved every riddle to the season?

 

Our pitching may get better. You, yourself, said Bloom won the Pivetta trade, and he has sucked, so far. Sale and Paxton may return, and Hill and Eovaldi have shown signs of joining Wacha as being in the groove.

 

We've heard you project the demise of our pen for several years, so I think you'd at least leave an a little chance they may not implode like you always expect them to. Our pen FWAR is 19th best. Its xFIP is nearly the same as the Yanks, and that's with Houck and Whitlock starting some games.

 

All is not lost for this season, but I'm not going to pretend things look good, right now, but bashing our future pitching is just plain speculation.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

You sound pretty sure of yourself and the Sox future. You sure didn't sound like this in March, and just one month has solved every riddle to the season?

 

Our pitching may get better. You, yourself, said Bloom won the Pivetta trade, and he has sucked, so far. Sale and Paxton may return, and Hill and Eovaldi have shown signs of joining Wacha as being in the groove.

 

We've heard you project the demise of our pen for several years, so I think you'd at least leave an a little chance they may not implode like you always expect them to. Our pen FWAR is 19th best. Its xFIP is nearly the same as the Yanks, and that's with Houck and Whitlock starting some games.

 

All is not lost for this season, but I'm not going to pretend things look good, right now, but bashing our future pitching is just plain speculation.

 

 

As a former rooter for Paxton, you cannot rely on him. He's enormous and will probably have good stuff. But his body is just not built for the rigors of the big leagues. He will probably go down with shoulder soreness as he ramps back up and be a wreck for the rest of 22. Sale is similar to Paxton. Great pitcher when on the bump, cannot stay healthy.

 

But let's look at timelines here. Sale threw a 7 pitch pen and isnt eligible to return until June 6. A 7 pitch bullpen? What is that crap? He is going to need 3-4 rehab starts which means he will need to be cleared to go balls to the wall 20 days before he is ready to return to Boston. He is first eligible to return June 6th, but it doesn't sound like that's a reasonable timeline here. You're likely looking at July 1 here. Paxton is "hoping to return before the ASB" and threw a 35 pitch pen this week.

 

With the way the sox are constructed, the lack of offense and the uncle crying pen, the sox will be dead in the water by the time these two pitchers come back and send Whitlock and Houck back to the pen.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Every season is long, but this one feels just wrong. If you're really sincere about competing for titles, do you try to improve your chances by putting Franchy Cordero at first base and signing castoff Jailyn Davis?

 

And forget about hoping for Sale and Paxton to return and be saviors; there's no way any smart organization will push to rush injured guys back if the team is only battling for fourth place.

 

The Red Sox may soon have no choice but to clean house... because as much as the impending free agents may want to make salary drives, it's hard not to go through the motions on an also-ran. But watch how rejuvenated a few will get after being traded to a contender for a stretch drive.

[moonslav59]

As a former rooter for Paxton, you cannot rely on him. He's enormous and will probably have good stuff. But his body is just not built for the rigors of the big leagues. He will probably go down with shoulder soreness as he ramps back up and be a wreck for the rest of 22. Sale is similar to Paxton. Great pitcher when on the bump, cannot stay healthy.

 

But let's look at timelines here. Sale threw a 7 pitch pen and isnt eligible to return until June 6. A 7 pitch bullpen? What is that crap? He is going to need 3-4 rehab starts which means he will need to be cleared to go balls to the wall 20 days before he is ready to return to Boston. He is first eligible to return June 6th, but it doesn't sound like that's a reasonable timeline here. You're likely looking at July 1 here. Paxton is "hoping to return before the ASB" and threw a 35 pitch pen this week.

 

With the way the sox are constructed, the lack of offense and the uncle crying pen, the sox will be dead in the water by the time these two pitchers come back and send Whitlock and Houck back to the pen.

 

You said the same about Eovaldi that you are now saying about Paxton. Also, it could be Sale not Paxton that brings some relief to the rotation and allows Houck or Whitlock to go back to the pen.

 

This is basically the same team you praised Bloom for building, last year, and after just one month, your tune is the exact opposite. Hell, you were even bashing Cashman and Boone and the Yankees, earlier, this season. You should know, seasons often turn on a dime.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox may soon have no choice but to clean house... because as much as the impending free agents may want to make salary drives, it's hard not to go through the motions on an also-ran. But watch how rejuvenated a few will get after being traded to a contender for a stretch drive.

 

Eovaldi, Bogey and JDM seem pretty juvenated, no?

[Old Red]

Eovaldi, Bogey and JDM seem pretty juvenated, no?

 

These 3 are to professional to just go through the motions.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi, Bogey and JDM seem pretty juvenated, no?

 

It's hard to imagine them doing much better.

[jacksonianmarch]

You said the same about Eovaldi that you are now saying about Paxton. Also, it could be Sale not Paxton that brings some relief to the rotation and allows Houck or Whitlock to go back to the pen.

 

This is basically the same team you praised Bloom for building, last year, and after just one month, your tune is the exact opposite. Hell, you were even bashing Cashman and Boone and the Yankees, earlier, this season. You should know, seasons often turn on a dime.

 

Yanks issues were offense only. Yanks issues were about how the batters literally came to the dish taking homer swings with runners on base instead of manufacturing runs. Once they altered philosophy, they became unstoppable.

 

Sox haven’t altered their offensive approach and they do not have the pitching to fall back on that the yanks do. Yanks also have an 8 game lead at this point, something that may not be recoverable. Also, your cavalry is at least 6 weeks or more away

[Nick]

There's a possibility of having JD, Xander and Eovaldi all coming back.

 

First of all, you have Price's $16M coming off the books.

 

Xander may take a $5M upgrade for longer terms. A $30M dream may just be that. It'll be interesting to watch how all the new money SS do this year. If couple of them fail, GM's will think long and hard. Having a great year in itself will NOT guaranty big pay day of Xander.

 

Eovaldi may come in at $22M for 5 years, another $5M raise.

 

JD will not get $22M from any team as a DH. His actual pay is $19.375M this year. It's hard for me to imagine him getting that either. He will not cost the Sox any addition to his luxury tax payroll number if we retain him.

 

Only other significant increase will be Devers.

 

Sox can decide to EAT Bradley money all this year and let him become a free agent. That will save $12M for 2023.

 

Wacha, Kike and Vaz all come off the books at $7M apiece, sum of $21M.

 

In summary, if Bloom wants, he can keep top tier players and do away with lesser players.

 

It doesn't have to be a 300' cliff. You'd want to keep best players to mix in with younger ones.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

There's a possibility of having JD, Xander and Eovaldi all coming back.

 

First of all, you have Price's $16M coming off the books.

 

Xander may take a $5M upgrade for longer terms.

 

Eovaldi may come in at $22M for 5 years, another $5M raise.

 

JD will not get $22M from any team as a DH. His actual pay is $19.375M this year. It's hard for me to imagine him getting that either. He will not cost the Sox any addition to his luxury tax payroll number.

 

Only other significant increase will be Devers.

 

Sox can decide to EAT Bradley money all this year and let him become a free agent. That will save $12M for 2023.

 

Wacha, Kike and Vaz all come off the books at $7M apiece, sum of $21M.

 

In summary, if Bloom wants, he can keep top tier players and do away with lesser players.

 

It doesn't have to be a 300' cliff.

 

JBJ has a massive buyout of his 2023 option year. It's $8M to let him walk and $12M to keep him.

 

He may very well be back, next season.

[moonslav59]

Yanks issues were offense only. Yanks issues were about how the batters literally came to the dish taking homer swings with runners on base instead of manufacturing runs. Once they altered philosophy, they became unstoppable.

 

Sox haven’t altered their offensive approach and they do not have the pitching to fall back on that the yanks do. Yanks also have an 8 game lead at this point, something that may not be recoverable. Also, your cavalry is at least 6 weeks or more away

 

So, it's impossible for the Sox to alter their approach?

 

It's impossible for Pivetta, the guy you praised Bloom for trading for to turn things around? (He's the only starter struggling, and even he has a .636 OPS Against and a 1.97 FIP in his last 2 starts.)

[moonslav59]

Once they altered philosophy, they became unstoppable.

 

 

Once they slump, again, your tune will change, again.

[Nick]

JBJ has a massive buyout of his 2023 option year. It's $8M to let him walk and $12M to keep him.

 

He may very well be back, next season.

 

Sometimes as an accountant, it's better to simply write off bad assets and start 2023 with a clean slate. No need to make numbers look bad for 2 years. I'm speaking strictly as CFO of Sox. Free advice.

[Nick]

Once they slump, again, your tune will change, again.

 

I really love having him here. I think he's a good guy and knowledgeable. But, he's beginning to set himself up for a bigger disappointment.

 

Yankees have high hurdle to go over. Winning the Division is no big deal. They've done it. Not sure getting into the World Series is enough. They have to win their last game.

 

Sox can squeeze into the playoffs, have everyone healthy, pitching and hitting come together at the same time and go do battles with Yankees. He'll be mad, we'll laugh a little bit and wait for his 2023 prediction.

[moonslav59]

Sometimes as an accountant, it's better to simply write off bad assets and start 2023 with a clean slate. No need to make numbers look bad for 2 years. I'm speaking strictly as CFO of Sox. Free advice.

 

It's all about valuing JBJ as worth $4M, next year.

 

If they thought he was worth $12M, this year, I'm not so sure it's a no-brainer for them.

[moonslav59]

I really love having him here. I think he's a good guy and knowledgeable. But, he's beginning to set himself up for a bigger disappointment.

 

Yankees have high hurdle to go over. Winning the Division is no big deal. They've done it. Not sure getting into the World Series is enough. They have to win their last game.

 

Sox can squeeze into the playoffs, have everyone healthy, pitching and hitting come together at the same time and go do battles with Yankees. He'll be mad, we'll laugh a little bit and wait for his 2023 prediction.

 

I like jacko, too, and I enjoy reading his posts.

 

I think he's riding high on small sample sizes, right now.

[Bellhorn04]

There's a possibility of having JD, Xander and Eovaldi all coming back.

 

First of all, you have Price's $16M coming off the books.

 

Xander may take a $5M upgrade for longer terms. A $30M dream may just be that. It'll be interesting to watch how all the new money SS do this year. If couple of them fail, GM's will think long and hard. Having a great year in itself will NOT guaranty big pay day of Xander.

 

Eovaldi may come in at $22M for 5 years, another $5M raise.

 

JD will not get $22M from any team as a DH. His actual pay is $19.375M this year. It's hard for me to imagine him getting that either. He will not cost the Sox any addition to his luxury tax payroll number if we retain him.

 

Only other significant increase will be Devers.

 

Sox can decide to EAT Bradley money all this year and let him become a free agent. That will save $12M for 2023.

 

Wacha, Kike and Vaz all come off the books at $7M apiece, sum of $21M.

 

In summary, if Bloom wants, he can keep top tier players and do away with lesser players.

 

It doesn't have to be a 300' cliff. You'd want to keep best players to mix in with younger ones.

 

It would be pretty brutal if they don't keep any of the big 4-Bogey, Devers, JDM and Eovaldi.

 

Bloom might be fine with it, but Henry and Werner have always had a bit of an eye on the PR part of the equation.