2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[Bellhorn04]

What is he waiting on? Ask yourself one question Do you think the Rays, Yankees and the Jays prefer Whitlock starting or coming out of bullpen.

 

I'd say they're building toward him starting right now.

 

Also, he's been a savior in a few games out of the pen. It's not like he's been wasted in meaningless outings. Every one of them has been important.

[Nick]

During pre-game, the announcer mentioned Houck was going to piggy back on Hill. It's good that he came in with the score 2-5.

Let's see, if Whitlock had not started, he would have came in for fifth inning. That's how much they value 2-0 lead. But they saved Houck for that crucial ninth inning which never came.

 

Another fine outing by Brasier. His ERA today was zero. Atta boy. (I always have one in my dog house. He's it this year)

 

I really don't have any complaints about our overall pitching.

 

We've scored 3-2-1-2-4-2-2 the last 7 games. Won't win too many with those numbers.

 

I'm anxious to see so called I fixed the mechanics now Pivetta throw on Tuesday.

Edited April 24, 2022 by Nick

[dgalehouse]

Sox bullpen is a mostly rag-tag group. They will sometimes get the job done and give you hope, but how many of them can really be relied upon? I would like to see Whitlock in the rotation, but that will also hurt the bullpen. As I have stated so many times, in baseball today, the bullpen is vital. The role of the starting pitcher is steadily diminishing.

[notin]

During pre-game, the announcer mentioned Houck was going to piggy back on Hill. It's good that he came in with the score 2-5.

Let's see, if Whitlock had not started, he would have came in for fifth inning. That's how much they value 2-0 lead. But they saved Houck for that crucial ninth inning which never came.

 

Another fine outing by Brasier. His ERA today was zero. Atta boy. (I always have one in my dog house. He's it this year)

 

I really don't have any complaints about our overall pitching.

 

-We've scored 3-2-1-2-4-2-2 the last 7 games. Won't win too many with those numbers.

 

I'm anxious to see so called I fixed the mechanics now Pivetta throw on Tuesday.

 

And therein lies the problem…

[jacksonianmarch]

Rotation could be a buzzsaw with Eovaldi-Sale-Whitlock-Houck as the 1-4. The problem is, none of them go deep into games and one of them (Houck) has an enormous split when he sees the lineup a third time through due to lack of a consistent third pitch. The pen put together this year almost has the feel of a "waiting for a few guys" kinda situation with the minors, but I don't think there is much relief coming.

[moonslav59]

Well in post 817, there was this whole thing about how all these “better” teams didn’t go as far, but were still better.

 

Heck post 809 was a response to my proposal that finishing in the top 3-4 makes a team a top 3-4 contender, which was greeted in post 809 with “If you say so.”

 

If you think last year's team was a top 4 team in MLB, I still say, "if you say so."

 

I don't think we were.

 

(Of course, how far we went does not help my position on the playoffs are largely not a crapshoot.)

[moonslav59]

What you said was

 

Also, you can add pieces during the season- like Eovaldi and Pearce in 2018, to put you over the top, so no, you don't have to be one of the best to start the season.

 

The last part makes no sense in the context of your argument.

 

That was addressed to the point about we need to be a top 4 team "on paper" before the year starts.

 

I never said or implied that, but being good on paper by the end of the year does improve your odds.

 

Yes, the 2018 team was top 4 before we added Eovaldi and Pearce, but that doesn't take away from the point that having a stronger rotation is important to become a top 3-4 contender and have better odds at winning a ring.

[notin]

If you think last year's team was a top 4 team in MLB, I still say, "if you say so."

 

I don't think we were.

 

(Of course, how far we went does not help my position on the playoffs are largely not a crapshoot.)

 

Which begs the question - if finishing in the top 4 doesn’t constitute a top 4 team, then what does?

[moonslav59]

But at what point does this become “spending for the sake of spending”?

 

Advocating for these $10-15 mill pitchers leaves the choices as pitchers recovering from TJ and pitchers who peak at 2-2.5 fWAR but will require 4-5 year deals and in the end are not necessarily all that much better than Rich Hill. Maybe you were unimpressed with the Jon Gray/Steve Matz type guys on the market this year. But next year it will still be “same talent different names.”

 

(I get you didn’t cap the request at $15mill, but at some point not far above it, we’re talking about contracts that require long term commitments and more often than not, hinder more than they help. So I needed a number.)

 

I’m not saying these types of pitchers are useless and unwanted. They’re absolutely useful most of the time. But they’re not always essential and sometimes easily replaced.

 

And let’s face it, no fan anywhere has ever bemoaned “this team really needs an innings eater with a 4.5ish ERA.”

 

But hey, that’s what $10-15 mill gets these days.

 

You don't think $15-20M gets you better than $5-10?

 

Again, though, I thought trading for a solid SP'er was the way to go, this winter, so it was not really my position, this winter.

 

It's not like I forgot what the Price contract did to us, among other deals, but counting on us to build a solid rotation from only the system and $5-10M starters is a long shot.

 

At some point, I feel like we'll need to trade some promising prospects for one or at least pay over $10M for a FA starter, if Bloom can't bring himself to deal for one.

 

I'm not saying it has to be a $30M deal. The Eovaldi deal worked pretty well.

 

Look, I hope I'm dead wrong. I hope Wacha, Hill and Paxton lead us to the promise land, or at least a couple have a big part in a long run, this year, but I think we are fighting the odds that most teams around the 8th to 12th highest contender status is in, right now.

 

If you are a believer in the crapshoot playoff philosophy, then that helps. I'm not.

 

I don't think my position is all that extreme.

[moonslav59]

Rotation could be a buzzsaw with Eovaldi-Sale-Whitlock-Houck as the 1-4. The problem is, none of them go deep into games and one of them (Houck) has an enormous split when he sees the lineup a third time through due to lack of a consistent third pitch. The pen put together this year almost has the feel of a "waiting for a few guys" kinda situation with the minors, but I don't think there is much relief coming.

 

Jacko, many good and even some great starters struggle after 2 times through the line-up.

 

Teams can win with a lot of starters like that, and a strong pen helps- something I'm pretty sure we don't have, now that Houck and Whitlock are starters- Whitlock maybe temporarily.

[moonslav59]

Which begs the question - if finishing in the top 4 doesn’t constitute a top 4 team, then what does?

 

Why not answer?

 

Do you really think the Sox were a top 4 team, last year? How about top 3?

 

Do you really think the Braves were the best?

 

Does good luck make a good team a top 4 team?

 

Does a playoff structure that forces the 2 best teams in MLB to play each other before the League Championship series affect who we might think is top 4?

[jacksonianmarch]

Jacko, many good and even some great starters struggle after 2 times through the line-up.

 

Teams can win with a lot of starters like that, and a strong pen helps- something I'm pretty sure we don't have, now that Houck and Whitlock are starters- Whitlock maybe temporarily.

 

That’s the issue. You need a pen to get them over the finish line and this pen isn’t good

[notin]

Why not answer?

 

Do you really think the Sox were a top 4 team, last year? How about top 3?

 

Absolutely. They made it to the ALCS. What is the argument against them being top 4? (I view top 3 and top 4 as roughly equal)

 

Do you really think the Braves were the best?

 

Seriously? What is your definition of “best”? The team that gets the most favorable SI off-season article.

 

The Braves won the World Series and did it without their best player. If they’re not the best, who is and why?

 

-

Does good luck make a good team a top 4 team?

 

Luck is part of every sports season. Are the Sox without Sale right now due to skill?

 

Does a playoff structure that forces the 2 best teams in MLB to play each other before the League Championship series affect who we might think is top 4?

 

While I would prefer it not, as schedules are not all equal then are records a definitive rank?

 

The Sox came in third with 92 wins in a division with 3 other teams that won over 90 games. Yet you rank them behind the White Sox. Why?

[Larry Cook]

Guys it is only April 24th.

 

Yes the hitters are underperforming.

 

Yes, the bullpen is a dumpster fire.

 

But it’s still very early.

[Old Red]

Guys it is only April 24th.

 

Yes the hitters are underperforming.

 

Yes, the bullpen is a dumpster fire.

 

But it’s still very early.

 

It may still be very early, but as we found out last year EVERY game counts, and they count in the standings just as much now as they do in September.

[moonslav59]

That’s the issue. You need a pen to get them over the finish line and this pen isn’t good

 

Or, had we gotten good SP'ers, we'd have had a decent pen with Houck and Whitlock at 1-2.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely. They made it to the ALCS. What is the argument against them being top 4? (I view top 3 and top 4 as roughly equal)

 

 

 

Seriously? What is your definition of “best”? The team that gets the most favorable SI off-season article.

 

The Braves won the World Series and did it without their best player. If they’re not the best, who is and why?

 

-

 

Luck is part of every sports season. Are the Sox without Sale right now due to skill?

 

 

 

While I would prefer it not, as schedules are not all equal then are records a definitive rank?

 

The Sox came in third with 92 wins in a division with 3 other teams that won over 90 games. Yet you rank them behind the White Sox. Why?

 

I'm glad you finally answered.

 

OK, maybe right on the CWS, but I said 3-4th best in MLB.

 

I'm not the one who brought up season records, but how does finishing 3rd in the division support your position we were top 3-4 in MLB?

 

My opinion? I don't think the team who wins the final 7 game series of the year is necessarily the best.

 

I think the Dodgers and Giants were the best teams in MLB, last year- maybe not for a couple weeks in October, but yes, the best teams in MLB.

 

I think the Astros, a team that has made the ALCS, five straight years were better than us.

 

The Rays were better.

 

At best we were 5th, but certainly the Brewers, Yanks and yes, the CWS and Braves could have been ranked equal or higher than us.

 

Wins are part of it. Run differential. WAR. Playoffs. A lot goes into who I think was the best, but it's not all about the winner of the World Series.

 

I respect your opinion, and I'm sure many agree with you, but I still don't think we were a top 4 team, last year. Schwarber and some over-the-head play by Iggy, Shaw and a guy named Kike, who some want to platoon now, got us closer, but I'd be hard pressed to call us #5 in 2021.

[notin]

You don't think $15-20M gets you better than $5-10?

 

.

 

I guess it depends.

 

Would you rather have Hill and Wacha, or just Steve Matz?

 

I can see both sides of that, until years come into play. You won’t get Matz for 1-2, unless he’s coming off TJ…

[notin]

Guys it is only April 24th.

 

Yes the hitters are underperforming.

 

Yes, the bullpen is a dumpster fire.

 

But it’s still very early.

 

And that thing you said about the bullpen is wrong…

[moonslav59]

I guess it depends.

 

Would you rather have Hill and Wacha, or just Steve Matz?

 

I can see both sides of that, until years come into play. You won’t get Matz for 1-2, unless he’s coming off TJ…

 

Again, I'd have traded for someone like Manaea, but yes, in general, I think the odds are better on $11-20M pitchers than $5-10M guys. Apparently, the GMs that give those contracts agree.

 

That's not to say every starter who signed for over $10M I wish we'd have signed. I'm on record saying I did not like this year's class, exept for some of the older guys on shorter term deals.

 

My point is, I can't see us being top favorites by counting on guys like Richards, Perez, Wacha, Hill and Paxton, every year.

 

It worked out okay, last season, but we are pushing our luck, IMO.

[notin]

Interesting you like Manaea - 30 years old with 11.6 career fWAR - over Paxton, a 33yo with 17.6 career fWAR. They’re actually very similar pitchers in a lot of ways.

 

Now Manaea is younger and currently healthy, but also only available for one year. The Sox could easily have Paxton for 2+, and for much less than Manaea will command.

 

I was surprised the Sox didn’t get any of the Oakland arms, especially once Sale went down. Now I don’t know if they tried to get any of them and what Oakland wanted in return, which might answer why. I mean, I wouldn’t deal Yorke for Manaea, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t what San Diego asked for…

[moonslav59]

Interesting you like Manaea - 30 years old with 11.6 career fWAR - over Paxton, a 33yo with 17.6 career fWAR. They’re actually very similar pitchers in a lot of ways.

 

Now Manaea is younger and currently healthy, but also only available for one year. The Sox could easily have Paxton for 2+, and for much less than Manaea will command.

 

I was surprised the Sox didn’t get any of the Oakland arms, especially once Sale went down. Now I don’t know if they tried to get any of them and what Oakland wanted in return, which might answer why. I mean, I wouldn’t deal Yorke for Manaea, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t what San Diego asked for…

 

I'm not a big Manaea fan, but I like one year of him more than Hill or Wacha or Paxton.

 

I don't think Yorke equaled what the A's ended up settling on.

 

I'd prefer trading for someone better, but who knows the cost.

 

[harmony]

Was five years at $115 million too much to pay for 30-year-old lefthander Robbie Ray coming off a Cy Young season?

 

Over this first three starts Ray had posted only a negative 0.1 fWAR and 0.0 bWAR before posting his third quality start on Sunday. Ray's ERA of 3.91 would be about 2.55 but for a four-run second inning in a Chicago monsoon on April 13.

 

Ray has gone at least six innings in all four starts but has seen his strikeout rate drop precipitously from his career rate of 11.1 per nine innings.

 

The worth of Ray's contract may be determined by whether Ray helps the Seattle Mariners to the postseason rather than whether his production justifies his salaries in Years 4 and 5 of the contract.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Was five years at $115 million too much to pay for 30-year-old lefthander Robbie Ray coming off a Cy Young season?

 

.

 

If you're asking fans who just can't believe that anyone is worth $23 million per year to play baseball -- not even a Cy Young winner (which Chris Sale never was and who makes $30 million) -- the answer is yes. If you're asking fans who'd rather their Chief Baseball Officer spend on assorted Richards, Perezs, Hills, Wachas and Paxtons each and every year instead, the answer is yes.

 

If you're asking fans who'd like a top-end starter at or below the current market rate, the answer is... come on, seriously?

[Bellhorn04]

If you're asking fans who just can't believe that anyone is worth $23 million per year to play baseball -- not even a Cy Young winner (which Chris Sale never was and who makes $30 million) -- the answer is yes. If you're asking fans who'd rather their Chief Baseball Officer spend on assorted Richards, Perezs, Hills, Wachas and Paxtons each and every year instead, the answer is yes.

 

Schilling and some other pretty good pitchers never won a Cy Young award either.

[Bellhorn04]

The fact is if Bloom signed Gausman we'd be liking it right now.

 

If he signed E-Rod or Stroman the moaning and groaning would be brutal and we'd be talking about how much of our payroll was tied up in useless junk.

[notin]

The fact is if Bloom signed Gausman we'd be liking it right now.

 

If he signed E-Rod or Stroman the moaning and groaning would be brutal and we'd be talking about how much of our payroll was tied up in useless junk.

 

And if he signed Wacha instead of ERod and Stroman, would we be complaining about not spending enough money on pitching regardless of the early returns?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The fact is if Bloom signed Gausman we'd be liking it right now.

 

If he signed E-Rod or Stroman the moaning and groaning would be brutal and we'd be talking about how much of our payroll was tied up in useless junk.

 

You're probably right. There really wasn't much outrage not re-signing ERod... at least from those of us who watched most of his inconsistent first innings or 3-2 counts or deliberate pace (except covering first on grounders hit to the right side). Regarding Stroman, most Sox fans might be willing to give him a pass for early adjustments to new environs -- ala Story; except he maybe bad-mouthed Boston in the past.

 

Most of us are already resigned to Bloom's concept of only giving "big" money to guys like Whitlock -- decent dollars for good, young controllable arms (pun intended). The next new fortune -- that can be carried in money bags by two hands and not transported in a Brink's truck -- may indeed be reserved for the next new star pitcher emerging from the farm -- Bello, Mata, Gonzalez etc.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And if he signed Wacha instead of ERod and Stroman, would we be complaining about not spending enough money on pitching regardless of the early returns?

 

Wacha has been great so far. But does anyone expect him to have an entire All-Star season at age 30 after his last three years combined for a 5.11 ERA?

[notin]

Wacha has been great so far. But does anyone expect him to have an entire All-Star season at age 30 after his last three years combined for a 5.11 ERA?

 

At the same ages, Gausman had a 4.40 ERA from 2018-2020. And he followed up with an All Star appearance…