Sox to not sign Seiya Suzuki

[notin]

He did end up pretty much being benched for the playoffs. (12 PAs total)

 

And given how they ended, maybe that was the wrong choice…

[moonslav59]

And given how they ended, maybe that was the wrong choice…

 

Maybe...

[Old Red]

He did end up pretty much being benched for the playoffs. (12 PAs total)

 

Dalbec is like Barnes, and you don’t know which one you are going to get the good one, or the bad one. Hard to count on either.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Said it before but it’s still worth noting - from mid-June until the end of the season, Dalbec had the second highest OPS among AL first basemen, trailing only MVP runner up Vlad Jr.

 

He had a very slow start, but he certainly did bounce back. I’d keep him for now over any pitcher I could get for him…

 

I was serious when I said the Red Sox may expect continued progress from Dalbec. It's maybe one of the reasons they felt they could part with Renfroe. It also makes Bobby D. a more valuable trade chip -- and obviously, the most expendable, depending on Boston's timetable for Casas... which is also partially to be determined by service time agreements yet to be settled during the clockout.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec is like Barnes, and you don’t know which one you are going to get the good one, or the bad one. Hard to count on either.

 

Maybe Dalbec is like JBJ without the superb D.

 

He might just be streaky. So far, he has been.

 

.959 first 92 PAs in MLB (2020 season)

.595 middle 173 PAs (start to 2021)

.916 last 280 PAs (end of 2021)

 

All in all, maybe that 173 PA stretch was the outlier. He's had two nice streaks combined to make 372 PAs, which is over double the PAs of his cold streak.

 

[Bellhorn04]

And given how they ended, maybe that was the wrong choice…

 

If Dalbec had done something with those 12 PA's, you might have a point...

[Old Red]

Maybe Dalbec is like JBJ without the superb D.

 

He might just be streaky. So far, he has been.

 

.959 first 92 PAs in MLB (2020 season)

.595 middle 173 PAs (start to 2021)

.916 last 280 PAs (end of 2021)

 

All in all, maybe that 173 PA stretch was the outlier. He's had two nice streaks combined to make 372 PAs, which is over double the PAs of his cold streak.

 

 

Good analogy, but like I asked can you really count on Bobby D?

[Bellhorn04]

Good analogy, but like I asked can you really count on Bobby D?

 

Not yet we can't.

[mvp 78]

Good analogy, but like I asked can you really count on Bobby D?

 

We can count on him to strike out and hit the ball a long way when he actually connects. I think his career will have a lot of ups and downs as that is a pretty streaky profile.

[Old Red]

We can count on him to strike out and hit the ball a long way when he actually connects. I think his career will have a lot of ups and downs as that is a pretty streaky profile.

 

It wasn’t just his bat, but his glove didn’t work very well at times last year either.

[mvp 78]

It wasn’t just his bat, but his glove didn’t work very well at times last year either.

 

I feel like it got a little better over the course of the season. I've heard that Casas is much better at 1b, so Dalbec's future is mainly as a DH and occasional 1b/3b.

[moonslav59]

Good analogy, but like I asked can you really count on Bobby D?

 

Can we count on anyone 100%? (Not that you asked about 100%.)

 

I like Dalbec. I think there are good odds he can put together a good 2022 season- maybe with some slumps or prolonged slumps- maybe not.

 

If I had to project, now (assuming 550 PAs vs 453 in 2021):

 

.250 30 95 (.310/.500/.810)

 

Of course, he could do much worse or significantly better.

[harmony]

Can we count on anyone 100%? (Not that you asked about 100%.)

 

I like Dalbec. I think there are good odds he can put together a good 2022 season- maybe with some slumps or prolonged slumps- maybe not.

 

If I had to project, now (assuming 550 PAs vs 453 in 2021):

 

.250 30 95 (.310/.500/.810)

 

Of course, he could do much worse or significantly better.

FWIW Marcel projects Bobby Dalbec with a 2022 line of .244/.312/.477/.798 in 451 plate appearances to go with 23 home runs and 70 RBI.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dalbebo01.shtml

 

Steamer projects Dalbec with a 2022 line of .234/.306/.470/.776 in 545 plate appearances to go with 29 home runs and 70 RBI.

 

ZiPS projects Dalbec with a 2022 line of .228/.303/.459/.762 in 489 plate appearances to go with 25 home runs and 71 RBI.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bobby-dalbec/19966/stats?position=1B

[moonslav59]

FWIW Marcel projects Bobby Dalbec with a 2022 line of .244/.312/.477/.798 in 451 plate appearances to go with 23 home runs and 70 RBI.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dalbebo01.shtml

 

Steamer projects Dalbec with a 2022 line of .234/.306/.470/.776 in 545 plate appearances to go with 29 home runs and 70 RBI.

 

ZiPS projects Dalbec with a 2022 line of .228/.303/.459/.762 in 489 plate appearances to go with 25 home runs and 71 RBI.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bobby-dalbec/19966/stats?position=1B

 

Pretty close!

[Old Red]

Can we count on anyone 100%? (Not that you asked about 100%.)

 

I like Dalbec. I think there are good odds he can put together a good 2022 season- maybe with some slumps or prolonged slumps- maybe not.

 

If I had to project, now (assuming 550 PAs vs 453 in 2021):

 

.250 30 95 (.310/.500/.810)

 

Of course, he could do much worse or significantly better.

 

If Bobby D was to get 550 PA I think that would be a good sign that he is producing, and hopefully you don’t have all the tryouts at 1B as last year especially Arroyo.

[moonslav59]

If Bobby D was to get 550 PA I think that would be a good sign that he is producing, and hopefully you don’t have all the tryouts at 1B as last year especially Arroyo.

 

It's hard to know how long a leash he may have, if he struggles, like he did last Spring. Maybe the fact that he bounced back might convince Cora to stick with him through a long slump.

 

How well Casas is doing might affect the decision, too.

 

Looking at my projection, I think that is on the high end of what I think will happen: Maybe 500 PAs and .240 28 88 is more likely (.790 OPS.)

[mvp 78]

It's hard to know how long a leash he may have, if he struggles, like he did last Spring. Maybe the fact that he bounced back might convince Cora to stick with him through a long slump.

 

How well Casas is doing might affect the decision, too.

 

Looking at my projection, I think that is on the high end of what I think will happen: Maybe 500 PAs and .240 28 88 is more likely (.790 OPS.)

 

He had 453 PA's last year as a fulltime player. I think he'll see a bit of a reduction from that.

[moonslav59]

He had 453 PA's last year as a fulltime player. I think he'll see a bit of a reduction from that.

 

Could happen, especially if his splits don't improve, but if he doesn't get benched for slumping, I'm thinking he gets more PAs in 2022.

 

Tough call.

 

Casas may squeeze him out of some, but as of now, there is no Danny Santana (44 PAs in 2021 at 1B), Marwin (44), Schwarber (38), Shaw (22) or Chavis (21) on the roster.

 

Will we see JD play some 1B?

 

Could Dalbec get some more PAs at 3B? (More than the 21 he got in 2021?)

 

[Hugh2]

I still think there's a really good chance the Sox land Suzuki. At this point, no one really knows.

[Hugh2]

FWIW Marcel projects Bobby Dalbec with a 2022 line of .244/.312/.477/.798 in 451 plate appearances to go with 23 home runs and 70 RBI.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dalbebo01.shtml

 

Steamer projects Dalbec with a 2022 line of .234/.306/.470/.776 in 545 plate appearances to go with 29 home runs and 70 RBI.

 

ZiPS projects Dalbec with a 2022 line of .228/.303/.459/.762 in 489 plate appearances to go with 25 home runs and 71 RBI.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bobby-dalbec/19966/stats?position=1B

 

If Bobby can slash that with improved defense at 1B I'll take that for the league minimum all day.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projecting-seiya-suzuki/

 

Projected in a neutral park, ZiPS has Suzuki as a better-than-league-average corner outfielder but one who projects below All-Star levels without another step forward.

 

ZiPS suggests a five-year, $83 million contract for Suzuki, though some of that wouldn’t be part of his contract, with a chunk instead going to the Carp as a posting fee.

 

Where might Suzuki land? He makes a lot of sense for the Boston Red Sox, so it’s no shock that the rumor mill has repeatedly connected him to the Beantowners. You don’t need to go further than our Depth Charts to see the wisdom of this for Boston; currently, we have two-thirds of their outfield primarily covered by a combination of Jackie Bradley Jr., Jarren Duran, Christin Stewart, and Rob Refsnyder. It strikes me as implausible that the Red Sox won’t make further additions prior to Opening Day; if they don’t, it’ll be much to their regret in a stacked American League East.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projecting-seiya-suzuki/

 

Projected in a neutral park, ZiPS has Suzuki as a better-than-league-average corner outfielder but one who projects below All-Star levels without another step forward.

 

ZiPS suggests a five-year, $83 million contract for Suzuki, though some of that wouldn’t be part of his contract, with a chunk instead going to the Carp as a posting fee.

 

Where might Suzuki land? He makes a lot of sense for the Boston Red Sox, so it’s no shock that the rumor mill has repeatedly connected him to the Beantowners. You don’t need to go further than our Depth Charts to see the wisdom of this for Boston; currently, we have two-thirds of their outfield primarily covered by a combination of Jackie Bradley Jr., Jarren Duran, Christin Stewart, and Rob Refsnyder. It strikes me as implausible that the Red Sox won’t make further additions prior to Opening Day; if they don’t, it’ll be much to their regret in a stacked American League East.

 

 

Which team is stacked besides Toronto?

 

New York has Judge and Stanton, Tampa has Randy and Wander, and Boston has five 2021 All-Stars. On the mound, NY has Cole, Rays have openers, and Sox have wily old veterans.

[notin]

Which team is stacked besides Toronto?

 

New York has Judge and Stanton, Tampa has Randy and Wander, and Boston has five 2021 All-Stars. On the mound, NY has Cole, Rays have openers, and Sox have wily old veterans.

 

 

Tampa might not be “stacked”, but they sure do get a lot of mileage from their little piles…

[Larry Cook]

Tampa might not be “stacked”, but they sure do get a lot of mileage from their little piles…

 

Isn’t that what hang’em Chaim is trying to do for us? He just had to finish choking on desperate Dave’s bad deals and finish restocking the minors after desperate Dave turned our minor league system into a dumpster fire.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yanks better not be finished. Ultimately, if healthy, the Yanks are the stacked team, but they’re never f***ing healthy. April is always, which musclebound hulk tears a muscle month in NY. Tendons count too.

 

Let’s just say March just got real interesting. Yanks need at least one big bat who can hit for average and one more veteran pitcher who can give innings should Sevy tweak something

[moonslav59]

Yanks better not be finished. Ultimately, if healthy, the Yanks are the stacked team, but they’re never f***ing healthy. April is always, which musclebound hulk tears a muscle month in NY. Tendons count too.

 

Let’s just say March just got real interesting. Yanks need at least one big bat who can hit for average and one more veteran pitcher who can give innings should Sevy tweak something

 

Are you guys really in on Conforto?

[jacksonianmarch]

Is he injury prone with good HR numbers and lots of K’s? If so, then probably

[moonslav59]

Is he injury prone with good HR numbers and lots of K’s? If so, then probably

 

710Ks in 2980 PAs, career.

 

153 games in '18

151 in '19

54 out of 60 in '20

125 in '21

 

Nothing too alarming.

[mvp 78]

Sox are showing interest in JD Davis for LF. Maybe they don't believe they are in on Suzuki anymore?

[Larry Cook]

Suzuki bats right handed. Has a good eye at the plate and plays good defense.

 

Except for cash, not a lot of downside in signing him.