Sox to not sign Seiya Suzuki

[mvp 78]

True. To narrow it down a bit, going into 2021 there was a lot of head-scratching and skepticism about acquisitions like Kike, Pivetta and Renfroe, but they outperformed expectations and helped the team get as far as they did.

 

I think Pivetta greatly exceeded expectations, probably more so than Renfroe or Kiké. He's probably our 3rd starter this year.

[Old Red]

I think Kiké will spend a lot of time between CF and 2b, but primarily CF. JBJ is the 4th OFer IMO.

 

I don’t think Bloom traded for JBJ and his $20M+ salary left on the books to be a 4th outfielder. I didn’t like the deal as it was, and that to me would even look worse.

[Old Red]

I think Pivetta greatly exceeded expectations, probably more so than Renfroe or Kiké. He's probably our 3rd starter this year.

 

Renfroe had 96 RBI, so I don’t think anyone expected anything close to that.

[moonslav59]

Renfroe had 96 RBI, so I don’t think anyone expected anything close to that.

 

Probably not, but he did have 86 RBI in his previous 562 ABs.

[mvp 78]

I don’t think Bloom traded for JBJ and his $20M+ salary left on the books to be a 4th outfielder. I didn’t like the deal as it was, and that to me would even look worse.

 

I don't like the deal either. I guess putting JBJ in CF and Kiké at 2b is basically just replacing Arroyo? Maybe they do a platoon where JBJ plays CF against RHP and Arroyo plays 2b against LHP (Kiké floats between the two positions)?

 

If I was constructing the OF:

Verdugo LF

Kiké CF

Other RHB RF (preferably Suzuki)

[moonslav59]

I don’t think Bloom traded for JBJ and his $20M+ salary left on the books to be a 4th outfielder. I didn’t like the deal as it was, and that to me would even look worse.

 

A couple prospects were included in the deal. It could be they were a significant reason for the deal.

 

Bloom also might have felt Renfroe is not as good as many feel he is.

[mvp 78]

Renfroe had 96 RBI, so I don’t think anyone expected anything close to that.

 

2018: 1.6 fWAR

2019: 2.0 fWAR

2021: 1.8 fWAR

 

I think he met expectations. Things like RBI are just indicative of the batters around him. Padres were 28th and 27th in runs in 2018 and 2019. If he had better hitters in front of him, he would have had more RBI. Therefore, I think he played about as well in 2021 as he did in 2018 and 2019.

[notin]

I think Kiké will spend a lot of time between CF and 2b, but primarily CF. JBJ is the 4th OFer IMO.

 

That certainly could happen, especially if they sign Suzuki, although that appears unlikely right now.

 

So given their current roster, it’s either Kike in CF, Arroyo/Arauz at 2b, and JBJ on the bench. Or JBJ in CF and Kike at 2b, possibly with Arroyo playing 2b vs LHP and Kike moving to CF, effectively making a Bradley/Arroyo platoon.

 

Now a bold move like signing Correa alters things drastically as well. In that case, either Bradley does go to the bench, or he moves to RF (and Verdugo stays in LF). But that hasn’t happened yet, and it may never happen…

[notin]

I don't like the deal either. I guess putting JBJ in CF and Kiké at 2b is basically just replacing Arroyo? Maybe they do a platoon where JBJ plays CF against RHP and Arroyo plays 2b against LHP (Kiké floats between the two positions)?

 

If I was constructing the OF:

Verdugo LF

Kiké CF

Other RHB RF (preferably Suzuki)

 

 

As of today, I see it as:

 

LF: Duran

CF: Bradley vs RHP/Hernandez vs LHP

RF: Verdugo

2b: Hernandez vs RHP/Arroyo vs LHP

 

But that’s probably not going to be how it ends up. Another possibility using the current roster is

 

LF: Verdugo

CF: Hernandez

RF: Bradley

2b: Arroyo

 

But Arroyo just seems to lack the durability it to be counted on for a full time role.

 

Either way, using either of Duran or Bradley as a full time starter is probably pretty weak, and both are left-handed, negating the idea of combining them into a true platoon.

 

So I think it is obvious that at least one more major move for an OF or a MI is forthcoming…

[Old Red]

A couple prospects were included in the deal. It could be they were a significant reason for the deal.

 

Bloom also might have felt Renfroe is not as good as many feel he is.

 

Moon you said the deal at the time was a head scratcher. I could care less about a couple of prospects that may never play one inning for the Red Sox. I haven’t heard anybody say that Renfroe was that good, but without his 96 RBI last year they don’t make the post season. Subtract Renfroe for JBJ last year do you think they get into any post season? As close as the Red Sox were to making the post season last year they were just as close to not making the post season at all.

[Old Red]

Probably not, but he did have 86 RBI in his previous 562 ABs.

 

Was that in 1 season?

[Old Red]

2018: 1.6 fWAR

2019: 2.0 fWAR

2021: 1.8 fWAR

 

I think he met expectations. Things like RBI are just indicative of the batters around him. Padres were 28th and 27th in runs in 2018 and 2019. If he had better hitters in front of him, he would have had more RBI. Therefore, I think he played about as well in 2021 as he did in 2018 and 2019.

 

I understand what RBI are, and you can say what batters are around someone about anybody, but that still doesn’t mean they get 96 RBI.

[moonslav59]

With no OF additions, ee may end up with...

 

vs RHPs

LF: Duran

CF: JBJ

RF: Verdugo

 

vs LHPs

LF: Verdugo or Duran

CF: Kike/JBJ

RF: JBJ/Kike or Verdugo

 

 

[moonslav59]

Was that in 1 season?

 

No, but 2020 was short.

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t think Bloom traded for JBJ and his $20M+ salary left on the books to be a 4th outfielder. I didn’t like the deal as it was, and that to me would even look worse.

 

I agree.

[moonslav59]

I understand what RBI are, and you can say what batters are around someone about anybody, but that still doesn’t mean they get 96 RBI.

 

No, but RBIs are made possible by players ahead of you, and if you get more opportunities, you usually get more RBIs.

 

Renfroe:

572 PAs in 2021

633 PAs in 2019+2020

 

RISP:

160 PAs and 66 RBI in 2021

145 PAs and 42 RBI in 2019-2020 combined

 

[moonslav59]

I agree.

 

JBJ will be given every opportunity to be a FT OF'er.

 

I think Bloom & Cora expect him to win and keep the FT job, but he may sit vs LHPs more often than many FT players.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In his last five years as a Red Sox regular, Bradley was a slightly below-average hitter and an above-average fielder. He was never a platoon player... though his career may soon be trending there.

 

If Suzuki is an unlikely option, maybe Bloom's first big contract goes to a guy he already likes: Schwarber, who will play LF, with Verdugo sliding over to RF, with Duran as the fourth outfielder. Maybe the Sox are counting on continued progress from Dalbec to fill the righty power void (from trading Renfroe), for now.

 

If midseason changes involve promoting Casas, then other personnel changes will probably come with that, as well.

[moonslav59]

In his last five years as a Red Sox regular, Bradley was a slightly below-average hitter and an above-average fielder. He was never a platoon player... though his career may soon be trending there.

 

If Suzuki is an unlikely option, maybe Bloom's first big contract goes to a guy he already likes: Schwarber, who will play LF, with Verdugo sliding over to RF, with Duran as the fourth outfielder. Maybe the Sox are counting on continued progress from Dalbec to fill the righty power void (from trading Renfroe), for now.

 

If midseason changes involve promoting Casas, then other personnel changes will probably come with that, as well.

 

Are you suggesting Dalbec may be moved to LF, when Casas gets the call?

[Old Red]

No, but RBIs are made possible by players ahead of you, and if you get more opportunities, you usually get more RBIs.

 

Renfroe:

572 PAs in 2021

633 PAs in 2019+2020

 

RISP:

160 PAs and 66 RBI in 2021

145 PAs and 42 RBI in 2019-2020 combined

 

 

This is all common knowledge, but still not everyone gets 96 RBI. You could have 10 different batters take the AB that Renfroe took last year, and that doesn’t mean they all would get 96 RBI. I never said Renfroe was all that good, but that he did get 96 RBI, with without the Red Sox would not have made the postseason.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Are you suggesting Dalbec may be moved to LF, when Casas gets the call?

 

No, more likely to be platooned with Casas, or traded for pitching as part of an overhaul... or rotated at DH if JD is dealt.

[notin]

No, more likely to be platooned with Casas, or traded for pitching as part of an overhaul... or rotated at DH if JD is dealt.

 

I like Dalbec, but I’m not sure any pitcher who can be acquired for him is worth the trade…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like Dalbec, but I’m not sure any pitcher who can be acquired for him is worth the trade…

 

I didn't say one-for-one; he's actually more likely to be part of a multi-player before the season -- whenever that is. And even if, any pitcher they get is also more likely to be someone we've never seen before or maybe heard of.

[Old Red]

With no OF additions, ee may end up with...

 

vs RHPs

LF: Duran

CF: JBJ

RF: Verdugo

 

vs LHPs

LF: Verdugo or Duran

CF: Kike/JBJ

RF: JBJ/Kike or Verdugo

 

 

 

I haven’t heard a word from Cora on what next years plans are for the OF, or for JBJ for that matter, so everyone is pretty much going with their own expectations . I know most think that Duran is in the Red Sox plans to get playing time next year, but at this point I don’t, and he starts the season at the Woo Sox. Time will tell.

[notin]

I didn't say one-for-one; he's actually more likely to be part of a multi-player before the season -- whenever that is. And even if, any pitcher they get is also more likely to be someone we've never seen before or maybe heard of.

 

As an ancillary piece, he’s possibly not even a consequential part of the deal. No team is going to agree to send Pitcher X for Nick Yorke and then back out if the Sox don’t include Dalbec…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As an ancillary piece, he’s possibly not even a consequential part of the deal…

 

... hits homers and strikes out -- what more do you want from a big leaguer?

[notin]

I haven’t heard a word from Cora on what next years plans are for the OF, or for JBJ for that matter, so everyone is pretty much going with their own expectations . I know most think that Duran is in the Red Sox plans to get playing time next year, but at this point I don’t, and he starts the season at the Woo Sox. Time will tell.

 

Oh we’re all just guessing. The reality is there is probably a candidate or two for a starting job that’s either currently unemployed or employed by another team…

[notin]

... hits homers and strikes out -- what more do you want from a big leaguer?

 

Said it before but it’s still worth noting - from mid-June until the end of the season, Dalbec had the second highest OPS among AL first basemen, trailing only MVP runner up Vlad Jr.

 

He had a very slow start, but he certainly did bounce back. I’d keep him for now over any pitcher I could get for him…

[mvp 78]

I haven’t heard a word from Cora on what next years plans are for the OF, or for JBJ for that matter, so everyone is pretty much going with their own expectations . I know most think that Duran is in the Red Sox plans to get playing time next year, but at this point I don’t, and he starts the season at the Woo Sox. Time will tell.

 

I think he needs to go to AAA and figure out his swing. He made way too many swing adjustments at MLB and was all over the place. Pick one swing and stick with it.

[moonslav59]

Said it before but it’s still worth noting - from mid-June until the end of the season, Dalbec had the second highest OPS among AL first basemen, trailing only MVP runner up Vlad Jr.

 

He had a very slow start, but he certainly did bounce back. I’d keep him for now over any pitcher I could get for him…

 

He did end up pretty much being benched for the playoffs. (12 PAs total)