2022 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Dalbec has homered twice, again, today. (Heating up, too late, this year.)

 

Mata has allowed 9 hits and 0 BBs in 5 IP (1 ER & 7Ks).

Edited September 18, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Hamilton stole his 70th base of the season. He's also had 2 hits and has really been brining up his BA and OPS.

[moonslav59]

Here are the soxprospects.com summations on prospects we may see in 2024:

 

C- Ronaldo Hernandez Potential up-and-down, bat-first catcher. Ceiling of an everyday catcher if he improves his defense and approach, but the likelihood of that happening is low. Type of defensive profile that could really benefit from robot umps. Power and arm are carrying tools, but questions about his approach, hit tool, and defensive profile cloud his future projection. Needs to improve hit profile to project as a major leaguer if defense stays as is. If he can even develop into a fringe-average defender with a below-average hit tool, could be an everyday player given his power and arm.

 

Connor Wong Potential MLB backup or up-and-down catcher. Ceiling of a platoon catcher who will have a season or two of starter-level production. Has already earned the trust of the organization as the third catcher on the 40-man roster, but has yet to get much run in the majors. Will have to make more contact. Power tool is better than hit right now, and he needs refinement at the plate. Has improved defense to the point that he should be able to handle that side of things in some role.

 

1B Tristan Casas Potential everyday regular. Ceiling of an all-star capable of hitting for both average and significant power. Looks the part of a prototypical bat-first first baseman capable of anchoring a lineup. Projects to add some value defensively at first base as well. Hit tool still needs development. Will have to ensure the swing-and-miss in his game does not impact his ability to tap into his power. Strong instincts and feel for the game. Great work ethic and strong clubhouse presence. Student of the game, really looks to hone his craft.

 

2B/DH Enmanuel Valdez Potential bat-first bench player. Ceiling of a bat-first utility player. Has moved around the diamond, but that is driven by him being below-average defensively and trying to find where he will best fit rather than true versatility. Will have to hit to hold value given defensive limitations. Has taken major strides at the plate in 2022; now has a chance to develop into at least a platoon bench bat and potentially more.

 

SS Jeter Downs Potential emergency utility infielder. Ceiling of fringe-utility infielder who struggles to hold down a consistent role and jumps from team to team. Future potential is largely tied to development of his hit tool. Has really struggled to make contact in the high minors, especially on velocity. May have been promoted to Triple-A a bit too aggressively after the lost 2020 season given his limited exposure to Double-A. If he can develop even a below-average hit tool, has the chance to carve out a major league role, but even that is a question after prolonged struggles in Triple-A. Other tools are all about average, and he lacks another carrying tool if his hit tool does not develop.

 

Utility Ceddanne Rafaela Potential bench utility player. Ceiling of an everyday regular who adds considerable value on defense and also contributes some at the plate. Defensive ability and versatility and speed give him a high floor. Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base. Bat lags behind, but has improved considerably in 2022. Approach is what holds him back now and will determine his ultimate value at the plate.

 

DH/1B Nick Kavadas Potential up-and-down bench bat. Ceiling of a platoon designated hitter. Value is solely tied up in his bat. Shows tremendous ability to impact the baseball along with an advanced feel for the strike zone and finding his pitch, but also has swing-and-miss in his game. Bat path allows him to drive the ball with loft, but it remains unclear how it will play against more advanced pitching. Profile suggested a player likely to post strong performance numbers in the low minors, which came to fruition, but true test will come in Double-A and above. Not a strong defender, unclear how glove will play at first base. Will have to hit to overcome defense and speed deficiencies.

Edited September 18, 2022 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

Ceddanne is the guy who I'm really interested in during the 2023 campaign aside from Wong and Casas who I anticipate should or could contribute in 2023, but Rafaela is a guy I expect to see in the minors next year but could be knocking on the door later in the season.

 

We know his defense is going to play, and that gives him a high floor, but if he can't hit he will just be another JBJ (but with the plus of positional versatility and more speed). But if he can sharpen up his plate discipline and learn to not expand the zone so much, he could be much more. 1 Walk during the entire month of December, this concerns me. I just fear he hits his way into the majors but when he's facing better pitching he's going to see more pitchers who can spot stuff in the strike zone but aren't great pitches to hit and as a result, his AVG/OBP will take a big hit. If he doesn't take this leap, he is still a very valuable guy. A super utility guy who can add plus D at most positions and add value on the basepaths with his speed. That has value on a 25 man roster, but his raw tools has us yearning for more.

[moonslav59]

Ceddanne is the guy who I'm really interested in during the 2023 campaign aside from Wong and Casas who I anticipate should or could contribute in 2023, but Rafaela is a guy I expect to see in the minors next year but could be knocking on the door later in the season.

 

We know his defense is going to play, and that gives him a high floor, but if he can't hit he will just be another JBJ (but with the plus of positional versatility and more speed). But if he can sharpen up his plate discipline and learn to not expand the zone so much, he could be much more. 1 Walk during the entire month of December, this concerns me. I just fear he hits his way into the majors but when he's facing better pitching he's going to see more pitchers who can spot stuff in the strike zone but aren't great pitches to hit and as a result, his AVG/OBP will take a big hit. If he doesn't take this leap, he is still a very valuable guy. A super utility guy who can add plus D at most positions and add value on the basepaths with his speed. That has value on a 25 man roster, but his raw tools has us yearning for more.

 

I agree, and I would not be surprised, if he does well hitting in the bigs. He's very close to a 5 tooler.

[moonslav59]

All Level Rankings on the Farm (350+ PAs)

wRC+

 

3. Kavadas 170

33. Mayer 144

66. E Valdez 135

74. Rafaela 134

80. Sikes 133

119. Paulino 128

135. Bonaci 125

150. W Abreu 124

150. Jordan 124

160. Lugo 122

160. C Rosier

175. Wong 121

204. Stewart 119

204. Granberg 119

 

Speed Index on fangraphs

2. Max Ferguson 9.7

6. David Hamilton 9.4

12. Corey Rosier 9.0

31. Eddinson Paulino 8.5

48. Phillip Sikes 8.3

49. Ceddanne Rafaela 8.2

74. Brainer Bonaci 7.8

100. Matthew Lugo 7.4

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox might end up with 3 minor leaguers with 100+ RBIs and 4 with 90+:

 

114 Wilyer Abreu (most in all minor leagues)

102 Niko Kavadas (5th)

96 Max Ferguson (9th)

89 Brainer Bonaci (17th)

[moonslav59]

Minor League Leaders in SLG% (500+ PAs)

 

9. Enmanuel Valdez .558

 

12. Niko Kavadas .547

 

15. Ceddanne Rafaela .538

____________________

 

OBP

 

2. Kavadas .443

 

15. W Abreu .399

 

34. E Valdez .379

 

61. M Ferguson .366

 

69. B Jordan .363

 

Edited September 19, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

Ceddanne is the guy who I'm really interested in during the 2023 campaign aside from Wong and Casas who I anticipate should or could contribute in 2023, but Rafaela is a guy I expect to see in the minors next year but could be knocking on the door later in the season.

 

We know his defense is going to play, and that gives him a high floor, but if he can't hit he will just be another JBJ (but with the plus of positional versatility and more speed). But if he can sharpen up his plate discipline and learn to not expand the zone so much, he could be much more. 1 Walk during the entire month of December, this concerns me. I just fear he hits his way into the majors but when he's facing better pitching he's going to see more pitchers who can spot stuff in the strike zone but aren't great pitches to hit and as a result, his AVG/OBP will take a big hit. If he doesn't take this leap, he is still a very valuable guy. A super utility guy who can add plus D at most positions and add value on the basepaths with his speed. That has value on a 25 man roster, but his raw tools has us yearning for more.

 

He needs to be added to the 40 man in December of this year to avoid selection in the Rule 5 draft.

 

At that end, he might be the best trade bait the Sox have to offer…

[moonslav59]

Minor League FA & Rule 5 Additions:

 

Ceddanne Rafaela

Enmanuel Valdez

Wilyer Abreu

Brandon Walter

Wikelman Gonzalez

Eddinson Paulino

 

Other Notables:

Brainer Bonaci

Kole Cottam

Luis de la Rosa.

Durbin Feltman

Devlin Granberg

David Hamilton

Gilberto Jimenez

Christian Koss

Chris Murphy

Victor Santos

Nick Sogard

Noah Song

Jake Thompson

Jacob Wallace

Thaddeus Ward

 

When we subtract the 2023 free agents from our 40 man roster and add the 5 players on the 60 day IL, we'll have 39 players.

 

I don't think it is difficult to open 6 slots for the players above, or even 9, if the players in red are added, but once we start signing free agents, we will run against a roster crunch, unless we trade some players from the 40 man. Here is a look at some possible DFA, Trade or "Bubble Players:

 

Option: Tommy Pham and James Paxton

 

 

1. Yu Chang

2. Abraham Almonte

3. Ryan Brasier

4. Kaleb Ort

5. Eduard Bazardo

6. Zach Kelly

7. Eric Hosmer

8. Tyler Danish

9. Jeter Downs

10. Connor Seabold

11. Franchy Cordero

12. Bobby Dalbec (not Hosmer & Dalbec)

13. Matt Barnes

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here is a look at some possible DFA, Trade or "Bubble Players:

 

Option: Tommy Pham and James Paxton

 

 

1. Yu Chang

2. Abraham Almonte

3. Ryan Brasier

4. Kaleb Ort

5. Eduard Bazardo

6. Zach Kelly

7. Eric Hosmer

8. Tyler Danish

9. Jeter Downs

10. Connor Seabold

11. Franchy Cordero

12. Bobby Dalbec (not Hosmer & Dalbec)

13. Matt Barnes

 

Most of the 13 can grab onto bubbles and float off into the firmament. But you know Tampa will snag a few of the pitchers and convert them into openers and high lev no-hitter hurlers.

[moonslav59]

Most of the 13 can grab onto bubbles and float off into the firmament. But you know Tampa will snag a few of the pitchers and convert them into openers and high lev no-hitter hurlers.

 

Out of those 13, I think we keep these:

 

Barnes: pay him to pitch here not elsewhere, and hope he returns to 2018-2019 form (not early 2021.)

Downs: cut him some slack. Maybe missing 2020 hurt some guys more than others.

Hosmer: the guy is free and is better than Dalbec/Cordero, anyway.

Dalbec: still has options and until casas proves he's a keeper, we'll want to have more choices.

 

Not so sure:

Cordero; only because our OF depth is shallow

Kelly & Danish: only because our pen depth is shallow

Seabold: had good numbers in AAA and probably deserves a second chance

 

That leaves 5, Brasier, Almonte, Ort, Chang and Bazardo, which happens to be about how many players we will add to fill our 5 major need areas:

2B/SS

RF

SP

SP/RP

RP

 

If we add 6 or 7, we can find room.

 

The Paxton and Pham options weigh in on these numbers, too.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Someone traded for Chavis, so someone will trade for Dalbec...

[Bellhorn04]

Should probably hang on to Dalbec for one more chance.

[mvp 78]

Here is a look at some possible DFA, Trade or "Bubble Players:

 

Option: Tommy Pham and James Paxton

 

 

1. Yu Chang

2. Abraham Almonte

3. Ryan Brasier

4. Kaleb Ort

5. Eduard Bazardo

6. Zach Kelly

7. Eric Hosmer

8. Tyler Danish

9. Jeter Downs

10. Connor Seabold

11. Franchy Cordero

12. Bobby Dalbec (not Hosmer & Dalbec)

13. Matt Barnes

 

Guys that I'd consider keeping for one reason or another:

Hosmer

Barnes

Dalbec

Danish

Seabold

Kelly

Bazardo

Ort

 

Ranking the relief arms in terms of keepers: Kelly>Bazardo>Ort(take out that time he was hung out to dry against to TOR and his numbers are ok)>Danish

 

I think they can make a case that there are better replacements than Ort and Danish and can DFA those 2, but keep Kelly and Bazaro (both are younger too).

 

Barnes still shows me a spark every once in a while. I think he plays out the string here and I'm fine with him in a 6th/7th inning role.

 

For now, I'd keep both Hosmer and Dalbec until they find better replacements.

 

I think they hold onto Seabold a little longer and see if his stuff comes back. If it doesn't, then they'll probably move him sometime next week. He still has some upside left and can be a spot starter in case of injury.

[mvp 78]

Should probably hang on to Dalbec for one more chance.

 

Even just as a platoon bench bat, he has value for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

Should probably hang on to Dalbec for one more chance.

 

It certainly would be selling low.

 

I don't think we trade Hosmer or Dalbec, until we know Casas can be our FT 1Bman- maybe May 2023, at the earliest?

[moonslav59]

Guys that I'd consider keeping for one reason or another:

Hosmer

Barnes

Dalbec

Danish

Seabold

Kelly

Bazardo

Ort

 

Ranking the relief arms in terms of keepers: Kelly>Bazardo>Ort(take out that time he was hung out to dry against to TOR and his numbers are ok)>Danish

 

I think they can make a case that there are better replacements than Ort and Danish and can DFA those 2, but keep Kelly and Bazaro (both are younger too).

 

Barnes still shows me a spark every once in a while. I think he plays out the string here and I'm fine with him in a 6th/7th inning role.

 

For now, I'd keep both Hosmer and Dalbec until they find better replacements.

 

I think they hold onto Seabold a little longer and see if his stuff comes back. If it doesn't, then they'll probably move him sometime next week. He still has some upside left and can be a spot starter in case of injury.

 

So, if we add 5 new players, your list of goners is Chang, Almonte, Brasier, Cordero & Downs.

 

(I think we keep Downs a little longer and let one RP'er go. I'd pick Ort.)

[Old Red]

Playoffs? Did someone say playoffs? Yes sir! Playoffs start in Portland tonight.

[mvp 78]

So, if we add 5 new players, your list of goners is Chang, Almonte, Brasier, Cordero & Downs.

 

(I think we keep Downs a little longer and let one RP'er go. I'd pick Ort.)

 

Downs' hit tool is just not really improving. He's still hitting under 200 in his second season in AAA. While his OPS has improved a bit, I'm not sure it's enough to keep him around.

[moonslav59]

Downs' hit tool is just not really improving. He's still hitting under 200 in his second season in AAA. While his OPS has improved a bit, I'm not sure it's enough to keep him around.

 

He's certainly in the bubble. While his BA hardly improved from 2021, his OBP (+.044) and SLG (+.079) did.

 

I think he gets another chance or is traded. He will not be DFA'd.

[Larry Cook]

Kavadas just hit his first playoff tater!!

[Larry Cook]

Potts with a playoff tater.

[moonslav59]

Near Final Numbers (400+ PAs)

 

OPS

6. Kavadas 1.025 (2nd with 500+ PAs)

23. E Valdez .931 (13th w 500+)

54. M Mayer .887

63. Rafaela .880

130. Abreu .834

143. Lugo .830

152. Paulino .827

 

BB

1. Abreu 114

5. Kavadas 102

9. Ferguson 96

17. Bonaci 89 (only 89 Ks!)

 

 

 

SB/CS

5. Hamilton (70/8)

9. Ferguson (61/5)

82. Rosier (33/4)

102. Abreu (31/3)

130. Rafaela (28/7)

142. Paulino (27/5)

166. Meredith (25/0)

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

V Santos pitched a gem, tonight (7 IP 3H 0 ER 1BB 8K,) but Dhern came in for the 8th and gave it away.

 

Gotta think DHern is traded or DFA'd, this winter.

 

The O was shut down, but EValdez went 2-3 with a BB.

[Larry Cook]

Potts with his 2nd playoff tater tonight.

 

Kavadas having a miserable night. Zero for four with four strikeouts, he left 5 on base!

[moonslav59]

Murphy finally had a good start.

 

7 IP

5 H

1 ER

0 BB

7 K

 

E Valdez continues his hot streak, going 2-4 w 2B

 

Abreu had 3 BBs (I think that's 117 on the year!)

Rafaela 2-5 w 3B

Ward pitched well...

4.2 IP

1 H

0 ER

2 BB

7 K

[mvp 78]

Potts with his 2nd playoff tater tonight.

 

Kavadas having a miserable night. Zero for four with four strikeouts, he left 5 on base!

 

Choker. Typical for someone from ND.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Choker. Typical for someone from ND.

 

Aren't the Badlands in SD?

[moonslav59]

Choker. Typical for someone from ND.

 

Troll!