Will JD Martinez pick up his player option for $19.35M?

[Bellhorn04]

BTW, I'm pretty sure JD just set the all-time pro sports record for most opt-outs declined in a single contract.

 

[moonslav59]

It would, but how much talent do you think you'd get back trading him? He's a 4-5 win player with an AAV of 20 million. What does BTV say about it?

 

Much more than the value of a sandwich pick.

 

Several teams are losing their stud SS, this winter.

 

$20M for Bogey is a nice contract for many teams who can pay it.

 

Look, many hated the Betts trade, and we won't get anything near that return, but we should get more than the value of a draft choice.

 

We could then sign Baez for $10M a year less than Bogey will make and have a SS and whatever we get for Bogey plus budget space going forward.

 

How much is that worth?

[moonslav59]

BTW, I'm pretty sure JD just set the all-time pro sports record for most opt-outs declined in a single contract.

 

 

Gotta be.

[Bellhorn04]

Much more than the value of a sandwich pick.

 

Several teams are losing their stud SS, this winter.

 

$20M for Bogey is a nice contract for many teams who can pay it.

 

Look, many hated the Betts trade, and we won't get anything near that return, but we should get more than the value of a draft choice.

 

We could then sign Baez for $10M a year less than Bogey will make and have a SS and whatever we get for Bogey plus budget space going forward.

 

How much is that worth?

 

You're talking about a limited field of teams to trade with. $20 mill is a chunk of change for a rental. If it wasn't for the Dodgers we might not have been able to trade Betts.

[Old Red]

Much more than the value of a sandwich pick.

 

Several teams are losing their stud SS, this winter.

 

$20M for Bogey is a nice contract for many teams who can pay it.

 

Look, many hated the Betts trade, and we won't get anything near that return, but we should get more than the value of a draft choice.

 

We could then sign Baez for $10M a year less than Bogey will make and have a SS and whatever we get for Bogey plus budget space going forward.

 

How much is that worth?

 

The Bogey, and Raffy decisions made the next few years are going to be tough decisions to make, but will shape the future of the Red Sox for years to come no matter which way they go.

[moonslav59]

You're talking about a limited field of teams to trade with. $20 mill is a chunk of change for a rental. If it wasn't for the Dodgers we might not have been able to trade Betts.

 

Betts had one year left at $27M. Yes, maybe the Dodgers were one of just a couple of handfuls of teams that would take on that contract, but he was more than worth that contract as Bogey is more than worth $20M/1.

 

Was Verdugo, Downs and Wong worth what Betts is worth? No, but for 1 year, yes.

 

Will we get anything near that for Bogey? No, but we'll get more than the value of a sandwich pick. Do you really think we won't of can't get more than that for Bogey?

 

Are there 10 teams that would trade for Bogey? I'd say no, unless we take some salary back, but I do think there would be more than one team bidding up the return value to get him. A team might also think, like they can extend him, like the Dodgers did with Betts.

 

I'm not saying we should just trade Bogey for the best offer, if the offer wasn't better than a comp pick. I would think it should be much better. Yes, it's only 1 year, but one year of Bogey is worth a hell ofa lot more than whole careers of most prospects drafted after the first round.

[moonslav59]

The Bogey, and Raffy decisions made the next few years are going to be tough decisions to make, but will shape the future of the Red Sox for years to come no matter which way they go.

 

No doubt.

 

My position is Devers forevers.

 

If we can only keep one, it's a no-brainer, for me.

 

If we can find a way to keep both, I'm thinking of a position change or two, and that just gets too complicated.

 

I guess I'm at the point where I'm thinking we should look to trade Bogey but not hand him away.

[Old Red]

No doubt.

 

My position is Devers forevers.

 

If we can only keep one, it's a no-brainer, for me.

 

If we can find a way to keep both, I'm thinking of a position change or two, and that just gets too complicated.

 

I guess I'm at the point where I'm thinking we should look to trade Bogey but not hand him away.

 

I agree on everything. I would like to keep both, but close to 60 million/yr, and who knows how much total would be is just to expensive, and if only 1 is kept, and that’s not a certainty either it has to be Raffy.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

I agree on everything. I would like to keep both, but close to 60 million/yr, and who knows how much total would be is just to expensive, and if only 1 is kept, and that’s not a certainty either it has to be Raffy.

 

So, what's the next logical step, if we aim to go towards keeping Devers (if any)?

 

Do we just settle on a measly draft pick for Bogey?

 

I know people here think I undervalue Bogey, but it seems some think we'll get nothing much in return for him and think the draft pick is good enough.

[a700hitter]

Both Bogey and Devers are building blocks. Sign them both.

[Bellhorn04]

So, what's the next logical step, if we aim to go towards keeping Devers (if any)?

 

Do we just settle on a measly draft pick for Bogey?

 

I know people here think I undervalue Bogey, but it seems some think we'll get nothing much in return for him and think the draft pick is good enough.

 

It's not just the "measly draft pick". It's the draft pick plus one year of Bogaerts.

 

We're a contending team, so we don't want to make ourselves worse just for the sake of getting more than the draft pick.

[Old Red]

It's not just the "measly draft pick". It's the draft pick plus one year of Bogaerts.

 

We're a contending team, so we don't want to make ourselves worse just for the sake of getting more than the draft pick.

 

I think the Sox will just ride it out with Bogey, and deal with it after 2022. Without knowing what you could get for him in a trade you don’t know if the team would be worse next year, or not, but I doubt you would get equal value.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Sox will just ride it out with Bogey, and deal with it after 2022. Without knowing what you could get for him in a trade you don’t know if the team would be worse next year, or not, but I doubt you would get equal value.

 

And even if you do get equal value, it's a sideways move, nothing gained. And you lose the draft pick. So what's the point?

[Old Red]

And even if you do get equal value, it's a sideways move, nothing gained. And you lose the draft pick. So what's the point?

 

If you got equal value you could have them for more years, and you never know how a draft pick will turn out. Some do, and some don’t like Trey Ball.

[notin]

And even if you do get equal value, it's a sideways move, nothing gained. And you lose the draft pick. So what's the point?

 

Doesn’t that also depends on how many years of “equal value”?

 

Verdugo is no Betts, but did the Sox make a good deal there or not?

[jacksonianmarch]

I honestly think Bogey will get an extension offer and if he declines it, he will be dealt. Letting Bogey reach FA is f***ing stupid. Someone will force the sox to either pay more than they want to or they'll convince him to walk. You don't let the deal expire unless you know you can keep him

[Old Red]

Doesn’t that also depends on how many years of “equal value”?

 

Verdugo is no Betts, but did the Sox make a good deal there or not?

 

Yes it does depend on how many years of equal value. 1 for 1 would not be worth it, but 2, or 3 would. Verdugo is a nice player, but he is no Betts, and unless Downs, or Wong turn out to be good players it was not a good trade, and the fact that the Sox didn’t get any pitching in the deal made it even worse.

[Old Red]

I honestly think Bogey will get an extension offer and if he declines it, he will be dealt. Letting Bogey reach FA is f***ing stupid. Someone will force the sox to either pay more than they want to or they'll convince him to walk. You don't let the deal expire unless you know you can keep him

 

Bogey will get an extension offer, but I’m not so sure he will be dealt if he declines. Letting Bogey reach FA is stupid, and I always say if you really want someone than you lock them up before they get there like they should have done with E Rod if they really want to keep him, and the same with Raffy. Getting into a bidding war with other teams is more costly, and usually the Sox end up on the losing end.

[moonslav59]

I honestly think Bogey will get an extension offer and if he declines it, he will be dealt. Letting Bogey reach FA is f***ing stupid. Someone will force the sox to either pay more than they want to or they'll convince him to walk. You don't let the deal expire unless you know you can keep him

 

Agreed. Make a fair offer and trade him, if he refuses it.

 

I'm not for handing him away, but if we can get 3-4 years of a good player for 1 of Bogey, I'm thinking yes.

 

[moonslav59]

Bogey will get an extension offer, but I’m not so sure he will be dealt if he declines. Letting Bogey reach FA is stupid, and I always say if you really want someone than you lock them up before they get there like they should have done with E Rod if they really want to keep him, and the same with Raffy. Getting into a bidding war with other teams is more costly, and usually the Sox end up on the losing end.

 

I don't disagree, but some players are determined to reach free agency and max out their one big deal.

[mvp 78]

The cornerstone of this franchise right now is Xander and Raffy. Bloom needs to work all offseason to keep them together for 6 more years.

[Old Red]

I don't disagree, but some players are determined to reach free agency and max out their one big deal.

 

I agree with that, but without at least making an offer before they do is not doing your do diligence to see if a deal can get done. When is the last time the Sox won any bidding war with one of their own after they hit the FA market?

[Old Red]

The cornerstone of this franchise right now is Xander and Raffy. Bloom needs to work all offseason to keep them together for 6 more years.

 

It’s not up to Bloom. It’s up to JH.

[moonslav59]

I agree with that, but without at least making an offer before they do is not doing your do diligence to see if a deal can get done. When is the last time the Sox won any bidding war with one of their own after they hit the FA market?

 

IMO, if one of our players reaches free agency, we did not think they were worth what market value says they were worth.

 

I don't think we ever wanted to pay Lester what he ended up getting, let alone $1 more.

 

We were not going to pay Betts, so we traded him.

 

Personally, because of Bogey's meh defense, I would not pay him $28M x 6 or 7 years, and he may get more than that!

 

I don't know what Devers is worth, since he is 2 years away from free agency, but I'm more inclined to pay him the market rate than Bogey.

[Bellhorn04]

Doesn’t that also depends on how many years of “equal value”?

 

Verdugo is no Betts, but did the Sox make a good deal there or not?

 

Yes, but as I've said, I don't think Bogaerts would bring back talent resembling Verdugo. I think we actually got more than equal value with Verdugo.

 

If you get back truly equal value, by definition you haven't gained a thing.

[moonslav59]

I understand the optics of losing Betts and Bogey in a 2 year period is stunningly bad to most fans.

 

If it's about winning and only winning, we may need to consider trading Bogey.

 

If we could not sign Betts due to some budget formula, and it was not about a single tax reset, then that formula must preclude extending Bogey, too. (IMO)

[moonslav59]

Yes, but as I've said, I don't think Bogaerts would bring back talent resembling Verdugo. I think we actually got more than equal value with Verdugo.

 

If you get back truly equal value, by definition you haven't gained a thing.

 

Except that the value, though less, is spread out over a longer period AND the money saved by not signing Bogey, which is not part of the trade evaluation, helps us sign other players that tips the balance.

 

One can say we traded Betts for Verdugo and $25+M a year in spending room for many years.

[notin]

Yes, but as I've said, I don't think Bogaerts would bring back talent resembling Verdugo. I think we actually got more than equal value with Verdugo.

 

If you get back truly equal value, by definition you haven't gained a thing.

 

Jose Urquidy would be “equal value” per BTV. Good or bad trade?

[Old Red]

Yes, but as I've said, I don't think Bogaerts would bring back talent resembling Verdugo. I think we actually got more than equal value with Verdugo.

 

If you get back truly equal value, by definition you haven't gained a thing.

 

I don’t think Duggy is equal value to Betts, but Betts wasn’t worth that big, or that long a contract either.

[Bellhorn04]

One can say we traded Betts for Verdugo and $25+M a year in spending room for many years.

 

One could say that, but Verdugo's price goes up too, so I don't think it's quite that simple. And it tends to diminish the loss of Hall of Fame talent.