Will JD Martinez pick up his player option for $19.35M?

[moonslav59]

It's pretty much a lateral move. Would you rather have that 1 WAR player or the draft pick?

 

I'd rather have the $1 WAR player for 4 years plus $15-20M to spend on other players, depending on what the player costs we get for Bogey.

 

It's not "lateral", when you figure in the budget.

 

Also, even if you don't count the money, I'll take 1 WAR player x 4 years over a sandwich pick.

[mvp 78]

In theory, yes, but we got 5 years of Verdugo for 1 year of Betts- not to mention Wong, Downs and a ton of salary space (Betts for 1 year and half of Price for 3 years).

 

The part about trading Bogey is the same but to a lesser degree.

 

If we don't extend him at $28M x 7, assuming he takes that, we will, in theory, have that money to spend on other players PLUS that 1 WAR player for 4 years.

 

With Betts, it had nothing to do with salary cap space since there was no way they would re-sign him.

 

For Bogey, you're just saying that it's better to allocate his salary dollars to other players. That's a fine option if that's what you want. I specifically want Bogaerts and Devers here through 2027.

[moonslav59]

There are at least 2 ways of looking at the trade vs keep Bogey situation:

 

1. Trading 1 year of Bogey and losing the $20M budget cost for something worth more than a comp pick.

Trade:

Positive: we get a player better than a comp pick and maybe $18-20M to spend on 2022.

Negative: we lose 1 year of Bogey during a promising window opportunity that could be closing.

No Trade:

Positive: We get one year of Bogey and a comp pick.

Negative: We spend $20M on Bogey and not someone else and have just a comp pick after 2022.

 

2. We look at Extending or re-signing Bogey vs trading him. (Let's assume we have to pay him a minimum of $28M x 7 years.)

Trade and not extend:

Positive: We have $28M to spend over 7 years plus a player we get for Bogey. In theory, we could sign Baez to $20M x 4 or 5 and have enough to sign a decent RP'er and then have $27M to spend years 4-7.

Negative: we lose Bogey's services not just for 1 year but for 1 + 7.

Extend:

Positive: We have Bogey for 1 + 7 years.

Negative: We use up a bunch of budget space and have so-so to poor D at the SS position, or we move Bogey to 2B or 3B, eventually.

[mvp 78]

Richards' total cost was $10 mill - $8.5 mill salary plus 1.5 mill buyout of option.

 

You do need to be an accountant to figure out some of this stuff.

 

Somedays, I wish I was an electrician or plumber instead, but then I wouldn't have this winning personality.

[moonslav59]

With Betts, it had nothing to do with salary cap space since there was no way they would re-sign him.

 

For Bogey, you're just saying that it's better to allocate his salary dollars to other players. That's a fine option if that's what you want. I specifically want Bogaerts and Devers here through 2027.

 

I get your position, but the equation is not Bogey vs a 1 WAR player x 4 yrs. You get that player plus what you can buy with the money saved.

 

I respect anyone's opinion, who wants to keep Bogey, but if we are going to spend $28-30+M for 7-10 years on Bogey, I'd have rather we spent a little more and kept Betts, or if it comes down to either-or, I'll take devers over Bogey.

 

If we keep them both, Hnery better open up his wallet over the next 7+ years, or we are going to see a pretty weak 40 man roster in support of Boegy, Devers and Sale.

[moonslav59]

With Betts, it had nothing to do with salary cap space since there was no way they would re-sign him.

 

It had to do with thinking we can spend $300M more wisely on several players.

 

Plus, we got some return value on top of that in Verdugo, Downs & Wong.

[dgalehouse]

There is something to be said for retaining your core players. Bogaerts certainly is in that category for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

There is something to be said for retaining your core players. Bogaerts certainly is in that category for the Sox.

 

Indeed.

 

My only beef is with not having superb defensive skills at a very important defensive position, but it appears he has shown a willingness to change positions, at some point.

 

He is certainly a great plus player at SS and in the clubhouse.

 

I guess I have a secondary beef. If I was going to spend large and long on anyone, it would have been or be Betts, then Devers, then Bogey.

 

We obviously decided we could not keep all 3, and keeping just 1 might be up for grabs, but Bogey is #3 in my book.

[mvp 78]

I get your position, but the equation is not Bogey vs a 1 WAR player x 4 yrs. You get that player plus what you can buy with the money saved.

 

I respect anyone's opinion, who wants to keep Bogey, but if we are going to spend $28-30+M for 7-10 years on Bogey, I'd have rather we spent a little more and kept Betts, or if it comes down to either-or, I'll take devers over Bogey.

 

If we keep them both, Hnery better open up his wallet over the next 7+ years, or we are going to see a pretty weak 40 man roster in support of Boegy, Devers and Sale.

 

Tampa's payroll plus Sale, plus Bogey, plus Devers is still under the lux tax.

[mvp 78]

It had to do with thinking we can spend $300M more wisely on several players.

 

Hmm, I thought they offered 300M to him?

[moonslav59]

Just for argument's sake, which option would you choose:

 

A: Extend Bogey at $30M x 8 beginning in 2023. ($20M in 2022)

 

B: Trade Bogey for 4 years of Urquidy, who is still pre-arb, then has 3 arb years left at maybe ($5M, $10M and $15M, assuming he does well, so $30M total).

Sign Baez to $20M x 5 years.

Total: $20M 2022 (same as Bogey), $25M 2023 ($5M less than Bogey- see 2025), $30M in 2024 (same as Bogey), $35M in 2025 ($5M more than Bogey- cancels out 2023), but then we'll have $10M more to spend per year from 2026 to 2030: 5 years)

[moonslav59]

Hmm, I thought they offered 300M to him?

 

So?

 

(I think they knew he'd say no.)

Edited November 12, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Tampa's payroll plus Sale, plus Bogey, plus Devers is still under the lux tax.

 

So, you support this?

 

$30M x 8 Bogey

$29M x 8 Devers (eventually)

$25.6M x 3 Sale's remaining lux tax numbers

 

That's almost half of the lux tax threshold, counting player benefits, on 3 players.

 

(I'm not saying I'm against it, but I don't think this is a winning plan, in the long run.)

[mvp 78]

Just for argument's sake, which option would you choose:

 

A: Extend Bogey at $30M x 8 beginning in 2023. ($20M in 2022)

 

B: Trade Bogey for 4 years of Urquidy, who is still pre-arb, then has 3 arb years left at maybe ($5M, $10M and $15M, assuming he does well, so $30M total).

Sign Baez to $20M x 5 years.

Total: $20M 2022 (same as Bogey), $25M 2023 ($5M less than Bogey- see 2025), $30M in 2024 (same as Bogey), $35M in 2025 ($5M more than Bogey- cancels out 2023), but then we'll have $10M more to spend per year from 2026 to 2030: 5 years)

 

I don't like either option.

[mvp 78]

So, you support this?

 

$30M x 8 Bogey

$29M x 8 Devers (eventually)

$25.6M x 3 Sale's remaining lux tax numbers

 

That's almost half of the lux tax threshold, counting player benefits, on 3 players.

 

(I'm not saying I'm against it, but I don't think this is a winning plan, in the long run.)

 

No, I've said I want Devers and Xander through 2027, not 2030.

[Bellhorn04]

So, you support this?

 

$30M x 8 Bogey

$29M x 8 Devers (eventually)

$25.6M x 3 Sale's remaining lux tax numbers

 

That's almost half of the lux tax threshold, counting player benefits, on 3 players.

 

(I'm not saying I'm against it, but I don't think this is a winning plan, in the long run.)

 

Personally I don't think either Bogey or Devers should make $30 million. That's what Mookie makes.

[moonslav59]

No, I've said I want Devers and Xander through 2027, not 2030.

 

You think you can get Bogey to sign a 5 year deal? I know this isn't the "Realistic" thread, but still...

 

Devers is still very young. To lock him up with an extension would almost certainly be to 2030.

[moonslav59]

Personally I don't think either Bogey or Devers should make $30 million. That's what Mookie makes.

 

It might not be what we want. It's what it might take.

 

So, you draw the line at $29-30M? Would you lock either up at $28M x 6, 7 or 8 years? If not, you are basically saying good bye to both.

[moonslav59]

I don't like either option.

 

If you had to choose one?

[mvp 78]

If you had to choose one?

 

I guess A in theory, but it's too high AAV and too many years. He won't get that.

[Bellhorn04]

It might not be what we want. It's what it might take.

 

So, you draw the line at $29-30M? Would you lock either up at $28M x 6, 7 or 8 years? If not, you are basically saying good bye to both.

 

Personally, I would:

 

-Keep Xander for 2022 and take the draft pick.

-Sign Devers for 8 years @ whatever it takes.

[mvp 78]

It might not be what we want. It's what it might take.

 

So, you draw the line at $29-30M? Would you lock either up at $28M x 6, 7 or 8 years? If not, you are basically saying good bye to both.

 

If they both would sign 28x6, it'd be a good enough deal.

[mvp 78]

Personally, I would:

 

-Keep Xander for 2022 and take the draft pick.

-Sign Devers for 8 years @ whatever it takes.

 

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1459229486256476164

 

Whatever it takes.

[Bellhorn04]

There is one other factor with keeping Xander, which is that there's a chance 2022 doesn't go as well as expected for him for one reason or another, and the opt-out becomes less certain.

[mvp 78]

There is one other factor with keeping Xander, which is that there's a chance 2022 doesn't go as well as expected for him for one reason or another, and the opt-out becomes less certain.

 

He's had off an on again wrist issues. It's possible he doesn't opt out.

[moonslav59]

I guess A in theory, but it's too high AAV and too many years. He won't get that.

 

He might get $27 or $28M x 9 or 10.

[moonslav59]

I guess A in theory, but it's too high AAV and too many years. He won't get that.

 

He will be 30, next winter.

 

Lindor's contract ($340M/10) starts in 2022, when he is 28. I'm not saying just because he got that much, Bogey will get $300M/8, which would bring him to the same final age on the last year of their deals, but I do think Bogey will get a 7-8 year deal from someone. It's usually those extra years that win the auction.

 

I'd give Bogey $27-28M x 6, but I think it will take more than that on the open market.

 

Yes, the 2022 season is a bit of a wildcard, and if Bogey struggles (not likely) or gets hurt, maybe the whole equation changes.

 

Maybe most GMs view him as a future 3Bman or 2Bman and won't pay top SS money.

 

I'm no expert on projecting contract, but I'm guessing $28M x 6 won't get him to extend.

[mvp 78]

He might get $27 or $28M x 9 or 10.

 

No, he won't.

[moonslav59]

He's had off an on again wrist issues. It's possible he doesn't opt out.

 

It's possible he hits 1.100, next year and gets Lindor money/

[moonslav59]

No, he won't.

 

100% no way?

 

(I said "might.")