The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

Taylor for $16M over Baez for $20?

 

Baez only has 1.6 fWAR more than Taylor over the last 5 years. If you prorate 2020 out to a full season, Taylor has a higher fWAR.

[moonslav59]

Baez only has 1.6 fWAR more than Taylor over the last 5 years. If you prorate 2020 out to a full season, Taylor has a higher fWAR.

 

Why is the 5 year sample the magic number? (Not saying it's not important, but so is last 3-4 years.)

 

Last year

3.6 Baez

3.1 Taylor

 

Last 2

3.5 Baez

4.5 Taylor

 

Last 3

13.2 Baez

6.2 Taylor

 

Last 4

18.6 Baez

9.3 Taylor

[mvp 78]

Why is the 5 year sample the magic number? (Not saying it's not important, but so is last 3-4 years.)

 

Last year

3.6 Baez

3.1 Taylor

 

Last 2

3.5 Baez

4.5 Taylor

 

Last 3

13.2 Baez

6.2 Taylor

 

Last 4

18.6 Baez

9.3 Taylor

 

Your math is off. Unless Baez had a 9.7 fWAR season that I don't see.

[notin]

Why is the 5 year sample the magic number? (Not saying it's not important, but so is last 3-4 years.)

 

Last year

3.6 Baez

3.1 Taylor

 

Last 2

3.5 Baez

4.5 Taylor

 

Last 3

13.2 Baez

6.2 Taylor

 

Last 4

18.6 Baez

9.3 Taylor

 

For Baez, last 3 years is 7.9 fWAR and 13.2 for last 4 season…

[Swiharts Ghost]

For Baez, last 3 years is 7.9 fWAR and 13.2 for last 4 season…

 

Can we get both ?

[oldtimer]

So who do we trade from our 40 man, assuming we pick up as many as 3 pitchers and an infielder and utility man? Candidates might be Potts, Aruaz, Rosario, Davis and a catcher.

[notin]

Can we get both ?

 

Both Baez from 3 years ago AND Baez from 2 years ago?

 

Not unless we replace Bloom with HG Wells…

[Larry Cook]

It is so hard to tell if the reports of our “interest” in certain free agents is real or the invention of overzealous agents?

[moonslav59]

So who do we trade from our 40 man, assuming we pick up as many as 3 pitchers and an infielder and utility man? Candidates might be Potts, Aruaz, Rosario, Davis and a catcher.

 

More likely we DFA one or more from Potts, Rosario and Arauz. We may non-tender Plawecki.

 

We still have 3 open slots on the roster and might claim a player or two off waivers before looking at free agents and trades.

 

We may draft someone in Rule 5.

[moonslav59]

Can we get both ?

 

Be serious.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Be serious.

 

Wow .Honestly do you even have any sort of Tongue and Cheek humor ? Answer ? No!! .Bloom to me has low balled Heaney and Erod so far but I’m ok with that .Ray seems like a helluva departure for Bloom and I wonder if he can even land a big fish.Semien not even on Boston’s radar but he seems to like the idea of Baez and Matz .Bloom never bid on Verlander or Thor so maybe a younger healthier long term starter is on the Horizon and that’s great .Bloom in my opinion is a poor recruiter for top talent thus goes after second tier talent .I give Cora all the credit for last years run and I blame Bloom for his weak effort at upgrading starters at the break .I have never liked this guy but I’m hopeful he changes my mind as being a tiny fish in a sea of Sharks .Bloom cost the Redsox a World Series.

Edited November 21, 2021 by Swiharts Ghost

[moonslav59]

Wow .Honestly do you even have any sort of Tongue and Cheek humor ? Answer ? No!! .Bloom to me has low balled Heaney and Erod so far but I’m ok with that .Ray seems like a helluva departure for Bloom and I wonder if he can even land a big fish.Semien not even on Boston’s radar but he seems to like the idea of Baez and Matz .Bloom never bid on Verlander or Thor so maybe a younger healthier long term starter is on the Horizon and that’s great .Bloom in my opinion is a poor recruiter for top talent thus goes after second tier talent .I give Cora all the credit for last years run and I blame Bloom for his weak effort at upgrading starters at the break .I have never liked this guy but I’m hopeful he changes my mind as being a tiny fish in a sea of Sharks .Bloom cost the Redsox a World Series.

 

Honestly?

 

You’ve said more absurd things and meant it, like in this very post claiming Bloom cost us the WS.

 

There’s no way anyone could ever know that was a joke. Honestly.

[Bellhorn04]

Honestly?

 

You’ve said more absurd things and meant it, like in this very post claiming Bloom cost us the WS.

 

There’s no way anyone could ever know that was a joke. Honestly.

 

Put him on ignore, for the sake of your mental health.

[moonslav59]

Put him on ignore, for the sake of your mental health.

 

It's comic relief.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It's comic relief.

 

 

I got twinges of a headache just reading some of that post you quoted.

[Hugh2]

Wow .Honestly do you even have any sort of Tongue and Cheek humor ? Answer ? No!! .Bloom to me has low balled Heaney and Erod so far but I’m ok with that .Ray seems like a helluva departure for Bloom and I wonder if he can even land a big fish.Semien not even on Boston’s radar but he seems to like the idea of Baez and Matz .Bloom never bid on Verlander or Thor so maybe a younger healthier long term starter is on the Horizon and that’s great .Bloom in my opinion is a poor recruiter for top talent thus goes after second tier talent .I give Cora all the credit for last years run and I blame Bloom for his weak effort at upgrading starters at the break .I have never liked this guy but I’m hopeful he changes my mind as being a tiny fish in a sea of Sharks .Bloom cost the Redsox a World Series.

 

This has got to be the worse take on Bloom I have ever read.

[moonslav59]

This has got to be the worse take on Bloom I have ever read.

 

Maybe he was joking here, too.

 

With almost everything posted being Comic or absurd, it's hard to tell.

[moonslav59]

Seiya Suzuki to be posted Monday morning.

[jacksonianmarch]

He’s a wild card, but the best offensive Japanese player since Ohtani.

[Hugh2]

Can’t sign if the CBA expires.

[moonslav59]

Can’t sign if the CBA expires.

 

He can before, though, and the Sox have been linked to his name. (Maybe they'd trade Renfroe?)

 

If he gets $55M/5 as projected, and we trade Renfroe and DFA Plawekci, we'd be adding about $2M to the 2022 budget.

[Bellhorn04]

He can before, though, and the Sox have been linked to his name. (Maybe they'd trade Renfroe?)

 

If he gets $55M/5 as projected, and we trade Renfroe and DFA Plawekci, we'd be adding about $2M to the 2022 budget.

 

Adding $2M to the payroll, I assume you mean.

[moonslav59]

Adding $2M to the payroll, I assume you mean.

 

Yes, for 2022 only. It would be adding $11M for 2023 minus what Renfroe might get in his last arb, then $11M a year the next 3 years.

 

It might be a way to improve our defense, maybe stay even on offense and improve our longer term outlook by adding just $2M to a tight 2022 budget.

[moonslav59]

I have yet to see a list of who are the most likeliest Rule 5 draftees.

 

Maybe Feltman has the best chance of making someone's first round list.

 

I doubt anyone else gets picked, but several baseball people projected us protecting Santos, Cottam and Jimenez.

 

Outside shots might be ML ready Ort, Fitzgerald or German.

 

Ward might be picked as a wait a year player, as he recovers from TJS.

 

soxprospects,com wrote this before the protection announcement:

 

Certain to be protected, certain to be selected if unprotected: RHP Brayan Bello, SS/2B Jeter Downs, RHP Josh Winckowski

Near-certain to be protected, certain to be selected if unprotected: RHP Kutter Crawford

 

Likely to be protected, may be selected if unprotected: RHP Thaddeus Ward

 

May be protected, may be selected: RHP Durbin Feltman, RHP Frank German, IF/OF Ryan Fitzgerald, RHP Victor Santos

Unlikely to be protected, small chance to be selected, unlikely to stick category: OF Gilberto Jimenez, IF/OF Ceddanne Rafaela, RHP Chase Shugart

Unlikely to be protected, small chance to be selected, depth arms category: RHP Zack Kelly, RHP Kaleb Ort, RHP AJ Politi

 

Unlikely to be protected or selected, but of note: 1B/OF Pedro Castellanos, 1B/OF Franchy Cordero, C Kole Cottam, LHP Rio Gomez, 1B/OF Devlin Granberg, RHP Joan Martinez

Edited November 21, 2021 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

If Jimenez is a SB threat at the big league level, he’s gonna get taken. A bad team can stash him as a 4th OFer and if he’s fast, make use of him.

 

Feltman May get selected, relievers with upper level stats usually do get picked

[moonslav59]

If Jimenez is a SB threat at the big league level, he’s gonna get taken. A bad team can stash him as a 4th OFer and if he’s fast, make use of him.

 

Feltman May get selected, relievers with upper level stats usually do get picked

 

I think Feltman will be taken.

 

Jimenez & Santos are under 50-50 being taken- maybe even under a 10 to 20% chance.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The question remains: who will Bloom add? You know the front office has lists of players from every org on their watch list. Wasn't Arauz the first transaction of the Bloom Era? He may never be a fulltimer, but is still young enough to qualify for a pension someday.

 

One of the cool things for baseball fans is watching a once low-level prospect emerge as a big league star (or even a meteor). Wonder what the ratio is of those vs. Top 20 draft picks who don't ever make it; a cup of coffee doesn't count -- guys would have to have had at least a pint of holiday stout...

[moonslav59]

The question remains: who will Bloom add? You know the front office has lists of players from every org on their watch list. Wasn't Arauz the first transaction of the Bloom Era? He may never be a fulltimer, but is still young enough to qualify for a pension someday.

 

One of the cool things for baseball fans is watching a once low-level prospect emerge as a big league star (or even a meteor). Wonder what the ratio is of those vs. Top 20 draft picks who don't ever make it; a cup of coffee doesn't count -- guys would have to have had at least a pint of holiday stout...

 

Good post.

 

Maybe the first question is whether Bloom will pounce before the lock-out date (Dec 1st).

 

It seems some players want to sign before that date, especially the recently posted OF'er S Suzuki.

 

There may be some bargain signings in the next few days, but who knows? Maybe if the owners win bigly, the post lock-out contracts will be bargains- assuming there is a lock-out.

[notin]

If Jimenez is a SB threat at the big league level, he’s gonna get taken. A bad team can stash him as a 4th OFer and if he’s fast, make use of him.

 

Feltman May get selected, relievers with upper level stats usually do get picked

 

Jimenez is very very fast, but is not a good base stealer.

 

Any team selecting him to Buttrey him on the bench as a pinch runner would be doing his career a great disservice. Not to say some dumb team won’t…

[moonslav59]

Jimenez is very very fast, but is not a good base stealer.

 

Any team selecting him to Buttrey him on the bench as a pinch runner would be doing his career a great disservice. Not to say some dumb team won’t…

 

I think we learned from Covid 2020 that taking a full year off does not ruin the vast majority of prospects.

 

Yes, it would be a great disservice to retard his growth, yet another year, by sitting him on the bench for most of the season, but if some GM really values an unprotected prospect (not saying Jimenez), it's not really "dumb" to snatch one for the long term future- retarded growth and all.

 

Some teams are so clearly in tank mode and aren't even close to being competitive by even 2023. Teams are used to going with 25 players, and now they have 26. I would not be surprised if 3-5 teams take long-away players as their 26th man who rarely plays.

 

They don't care about 2022.

 

They are looking at 2024 and beyond and building assets for then, not now.

 

Even if a team traded for Jimenez, they'd still be looking at 2024, at the earliest. I setting him back a year and losing team control years really a decision-killer?

 

If one of these single A prospects turn to gold, they'd have a nice trade chip, even if the guy only has 1-3 years of team control left, or if some ssort of miracle happens and they luck into being a contender, then they have one more helpful piece.

 

Look, I admit, I know very little about prospects, particularly single A ones. Hell, nobody knows for sure about just about all of them, but we are in a new era of young talent acquisition, and teams are valuing prospects more than I have ever seen. Look how teams value the comp picks gained or lost by QO offers or signings. Do you think Jimenez would be drafted in the comp rounds?

 

If yes, then maybe drafting him in Rule 5 is not such an absurd idea.

 

Yes, he loses a year of growth, when he needs it most. Yes, the team loses years of team control, because the clock starts ticking, but there is not lost slot money in a draft or anything of substantial value lost, even if they return him.

Edited November 22, 2021 by moonslav59