The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

Honestly, I'd rather them spend extra to just keep Xander and Raffy signed. I like Schwarber, but I just don't know how much it would take to sign him. I think Castellanos would be a better pick up, but I think we could see a rotating cast of characters at DH once Casas is promoted this year.

 

If we extend Bogey at the price guys like Semien or Baez get, what is the advantage Bogey gives us?

[moonslav59]

From everything we've seen so far of Chaim Bloom: to go further in the postseason a year from now, he'll spend payroll on more roster depth, instead of paying big bucks to one old pitcher who broke down in this postseason.

 

The roster depth can only go so far.

 

He did such a good job last winter, that he's only got 4-5 slots, now. I guess he could make some 2 or 3 for 1 deals to add more quality depth, but other teams are usually not looking for 3 players that need to be on the 40 man roster, right now. Most teams are looking at roster crunches.

 

Can we upgrade on guys like Davis, Sawamura, Valdez, Plawecki, Bazardo and the expected DFAs- Potts & Rosario, but I think we go more towards upgrading quality over quantity, this winter.

 

We need to fill these slots:

 

SP __________ (ERod?)

SP __________ (Richards/Perez)

RP___________ (Ottavino)

RP___________ (Andriese/Robles)

Utility ________ (Marwin/Iggy)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The roster depth can only go so far.

 

He did such a good job last winter, that he's only got 4-5 slots, now. I guess he could make some 2 or 3 for 1 deals to add more quality depth, but other teams are usually not looking for 3 players that need to be on the 40 man roster, right now. Most teams are looking at roster crunches.

 

Can we upgrade on guys like Davis, Sawamura, Valdez, Plawecki, Bazardo and the expected DFAs- Potts & Rosario, but I think we go more towards upgrading quality over quantity, this winter.

 

We need to fill these slots:

 

SP __________ (ERod?)

SP __________ (Richards/Perez)

RP___________ (Ottavino)

RP___________ (Andriese/Robles)

Utility ________ (Marwin/Iggy)

 

Agreed that the first four slots are priorities. If just two of them come via free agency, does that max the budget and prevent signing a DH or extending an All-Star infielder (unless Henry doesn't care about the as-yet new CBA limitations...)?

[Bellhorn04]

If we extend Bogey at the price guys like Semien or Baez get, what is the advantage Bogey gives us?

 

You're right that there has to be a cost advantage of some sort. I don't think Bloom would offer a deal that had no apparent advantage for the team.

[moonslav59]

Agreed that the first four slots are priorities. If just two of them come via free agency, does that max the budget and prevent signing a DH or extending an All-Star infielder (unless Henry doesn't care about the as-yet new CBA limitations...)?

 

If we have $40M to spend, we may go...

$18M ERod

$10M SP3

$9M RP

$3M Iggy

[moonslav59]

You're right that there has to be a cost advantage of some sort. I don't think Bloom would offer a deal that had no apparent advantage for the team.

 

My thought is towards improving SS D without losing a whole lot, if any, on offense.

 

I like Semien & Baez more than Bogey, if the prices are similar.

[Bellhorn04]

My thought is towards improving SS D without losing a whole lot, if any, on offense.

 

I like Semien & Baez more than Bogey, if the prices are similar.

 

This is exactly why I think WAR is the correct measuring stick.

[mvp 78]

I agree, especially if a universal DH drives up the price for guys like JD, Schwarbs, Nick C, Cruz, etc. Sluggers are not a priority on a team with thin pitching.

 

Merloni said this week he doesn't think the Sox will end with either JD or Kyle from Waltham.

 

I agree that I think they don't have JD or Schwarber, especially if JD opts out.

[mvp 78]

I'm thinking they'd rather have Stroman and Gausman for just a little more $$/yr than Scherzer.

 

Me too.

[mvp 78]

If we extend Bogey at the price guys like Semien or Baez get, what is the advantage Bogey gives us?

 

Bogey is better than Baez, so I hope he makes Baez money.

[mvp 78]

If we have $40M to spend, we may go...

$18M ERod

$10M SP3

$9M RP

$3M Iggy

 

You aren't going to find a good SP for $10M.

[mvp 78]

This is exactly why I think WAR is the correct measuring stick.

 

Baez since 2018: 13.2 fWAR

Bogaerts since 2018: 18.8 fWAR

[Bellhorn04]

Baez since 2018: 13.2 fWAR

Bogaerts since 2018: 18.8 fWAR

 

That's what I'm talkin' about.

[moonslav59]

You aren't going to find a good SP for $10M.

 

Unless we get lucky, no. More like a Kluber or Richards type.

 

I should have said $10M SP 4/5.

[mvp 78]

Unless we get lucky, no. More like a Kluber or Richards type.

 

I should have said $10M SP 4/5.

 

You could get Kikuchi for $10M, but I think you'd be better off going elsewhere.

[mvp 78]

That's what I'm talkin' about.

 

Baez is a good player. Bogaerts is a criminally underrated player EVEN IN HIS HOMETOWN.

[moonslav59]

Bogey is better than Baez, so I hope he makes Baez money.

 

Would you rather have Bogey at $27M x 6 or Semien at about the same?

 

Would you rather have Bogey at $27M x 6 or Baez at $22M x 5?

[moonslav59]

You could get Kikuchi for $10M, but I think you'd be better off going elsewhere.

 

I think we sign one starting pitcher (ERod?) and trade for another (Montas?).

[Bellhorn04]

Baez is a good player. Bogaerts is a criminally underrated player EVEN IN HIS HOMETOWN.

 

Bogey has great intangibles too, obviously.

[mvp 78]

Would you rather have Bogey at $27M x 6 or Semien at about the same?

 

Would you rather have Bogey at $27M x 6 or Baez at $22M x 5?

 

I prefer Bogey to Semien. Semien was really good in 2019 and 2021, but Xander has been consistent every year starting in 2015. Semien's career started off very slow and is 2 years older than Xander.

[mvp 78]

Bogey has great intangibles too, obviously.

 

He seems to be a very good leader and a mentor to Raffy. I don't know enough about Semien to comment if he is that way too.

[moonslav59]

Baez since 2018: 13.2 fWAR

Bogaerts since 2018: 18.8 fWAR

 

I like fWAR better for everyday players, but here is bWAR (2018-2021)

20.2 Semien

18.4 Baez

17.6 Bogey

 

Other numbers...

 

OPS

.894 Bogey (.899 last 3 years)

.819 Baez (.789 last 3 years

.811 Semien (.854 last 3 years)

 

UZR/150

5.4 Semien

3.6 Baez

1.3 Bogey

 

DRS

44 Baez

13 Semien

-26 Bogey

[moonslav59]

Bogey has great intangibles too, obviously.

 

Except on D.

[moonslav59]

I prefer Bogey to Semien. Semien was really good in 2019 and 2021, but Xander has been consistent every year starting in 2015. Semien's career started off very slow and is 2 years older than Xander.

 

Good points, but that might make the comp this...

 

$27M x 6 Bogey

 

vs

 

$26M x 5 for Semien

 

Still want Bogey?

[oldtimer]

Would you rather have Bogey at $2 7M x 6 or Semien at about the same?

 

Would you rather have Bogey at $27M x 6 or Baez at $22M x 5?

 

I'd be surprised if the Sox don't promote Mayer for the 2024 season. He represents the Sox SS of the future. With that in mind, do we want to commit the Sox to a $27Mil second baseman for 4 years following Mayer's debut?

 

I don't know the answer to that question, unless we can use either of these two as PT DH's as well as 2nd basemen. Even then, it is a lot to pay for the position. Both Bogaerts and Semien are top level MLers now, but will they be tradable in 2024 with that kind of contract?

 

I also can't see both on the roster at the same time between 2022 and 2024. Kind of like JDM and Schwaber, being hard to carry at the same time.

[a700hitter]

Schwarber declined his option.

At $11.5 million he is a bargain. I don’t think he is worth much more as he is little more than a very slow-footed DH. I would look elsewhere.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/kyle-schwarber-red-sox-declines-option-free-agent.html

[kenmeister]

Good points, but that might make the comp this...

 

$27M x 6 Bogey

 

vs

 

$26M x 5 for Semien

 

Still want Bogey?

 

Yes, but he's my favorite Sox player.

[mvp 78]

Good points, but that might make the comp this...

 

$27M x 6 Bogey

 

vs

 

$26M x 5 for Semien

 

Still want Bogey?

 

Yeah.

[mvp 78]

I like fWAR better for everyday players, but here is bWAR (2018-2021)

20.2 Semien

18.4 Baez

17.6 Bogey

 

Other numbers...

 

OPS

.894 Bogey (.899 last 3 years)

.819 Baez (.789 last 3 years

.811 Semien (.854 last 3 years)

 

UZR/150

5.4 Semien

3.6 Baez

1.3 Bogey

 

DRS

44 Baez

13 Semien

-26 Bogey

 

Ok, so you prefer fWAR except when you don't like what it shows. Got it.

[mvp 78]

At $11.5 million he is a bargain. I don’t think he is worth much more as he is little more than a very slow-footed DH. I would look elsewhere.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/kyle-schwarber-red-sox-declines-option-free-agent.html

 

$14M max? I just wouldn't pay him 20M for sure.