The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure Jeter Downs carries the appeal he did 12 months ago. I haven't given up on him and think he was placed in a very bad position, basically skipping AA ball after missing a year, but I do think it means any trade of him is definitely selling low, assuming any team is interested at all...

 

Downs is hitting well in the fall league- for what's that worth.

[moonslav59]

Baseball Trade Values may deem a proposed trade a fair deal but that does not mean the package is the best the Cincinnati Reds would receive for two years of a reasonably priced top-tier starter in Luis Castillo.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

A team will likely need to overpay in a trade for the nearly 29-year-old righthander.

 

My suggested trade was an overpay. I tried to pay even more, but BTV would not accept my trade.

[moonslav59]

TJS is certainly not the career ender it used to be, but so far history has shown many pitchers need a second one after about 600 IP. And the frequency of getting a second TJS is too high to ignore.

 

I think the health history alone does make Houck the far more appealing trade target of the two. But giving up on Houck to get Castillo is still a dilemma. I'd probably consider trading Casas over Houck, but not sure how interested Cincinnati is in Casas given that Votto still has 2 years (and $57mill) on his contract, can't play anywhere else, and is virtually untradable even without taking into consideration his 10-5 rights...

 

I'd put Houck ahead of Whitlock for the same reason, but I still think he belongs in the group of 5.

[moonslav59]

4 have rejected their QO- as expected:

 

Castellanos

 

Conforto

 

C Seager

 

Semien

[mvp 78]

Did mvp recommend Escobar?

 

If so, I’m off Escobar now…

 

I didn't recommend Escobar for the Sox. I was just saying that his projected deal was a good value.

[mvp 78]

I like the both bullpen guys, but don't think Bloom will sign more than one established reliever this winter. He's not going to spend $80 million on free agent closers, when he can pick up a Joe Kelly for less (2/12? 3/15?), or deal for minimum wage arms he's undoubtedly targeting. And then if the front office deems the Sox contenders by mid-season, there are always decent recruits available at the deadline... like Graveman was, last summer.

 

I agree that Bloom won't sign two "established" relievers. I'm not sure he signs even one.

[mvp 78]

BTV "talked to Barzini" and the Sox can make a deal for Luis Castillo and still keep Casas/Mayer/Yorke...

 

...but lose all their Ds: -uran, -albec and -owns. They'd also give up Jay Groome-D the past Decade... plus Dilberto Dimenez. But toolsy Nick Senzel would be thrown in to become Boston's next Franchy (it might seem like an overpay, but not if the Reds are tired of waiting on a former MLB top-10 prospect).

 

If you think Boston would be giving up too much of the farm for a potential #1 starter, then so does Chaim Bloom... maybe. If just two of those five prospects become MLB All-Stars, the Reds win the trade, right?

 

Remember, Pedro Martinez had just won the NL CY Young Award when the Sox acquired him from Montreal. For the rest of his career, Pedro won 154 games, while the two guys he was swapped for -- Pavano and Armas -- won 161 combined. Then there's WAR: Pavano + Armas career = 23.3; Martinez post-trade 58.4.

 

Martinez was coming off 5 fWAR and 8.5 fWAR back to back seasons. Castillo is NOT at that level. That trade is an ovepay

[notin]

I agree that Bloom won't sign two "established" relievers. I'm not sure he signs even one.

 

I like the ide of keeping Houck and Whitlock on the pen to anchor it. If Barnes can rebound somewhat, then Taylor, Brasier, Valdez, Hernandez and Valdez combine to make for a very solid bullpen...

[mvp 78]

Per the simulator at BTV, a fair deal would be Castillo, Eugenio Suarez (and his 3 years $38.5mill left) and Nick Senzel for Tanner Houck and Jarren Duran.

 

Or - Castillo and Suarez for Houck and Dalbec.

 

Or - Castillo and Mike Moustakas (2 yrs - $38mill) for Duran, Dalbec and Brayan Bello.

 

There you go - deals where the Sox do get to keep Casas, Mayer and Yorke. Of course, they do have to give up Houck, or take back Mike Moustakas. So it's not necessarily a good thing...

 

I'm fine with deal #1.

[mvp 78]

TJS is certainly not the career ender it used to be, but so far history has shown many pitchers need a second one after about 600 IP. And the frequency of getting a second TJS is too high to ignore.

 

I think the health history alone does make Houck the far more appealing trade target of the two. But giving up on Houck to get Castillo is still a dilemma. I'd probably consider trading Casas over Houck, but not sure how interested Cincinnati is in Casas given that Votto still has 2 years (and $57mill) on his contract, can't play anywhere else, and is virtually untradable even without taking into consideration his 10-5 rights...

 

Hard disagree.

[mvp 78]

I like the ide of keeping Houck and Whitlock on the pen to anchor it. If Barnes can rebound somewhat, then Taylor, Brasier, Valdez, Hernandez and Valdez combine to make for a very solid bullpen...

 

And he doesn't have to be 1st half of 2021 good, just a normal Barnes year would be fine.

[notin]

I didn't recommend Escobar for the Sox. I was just saying that his projected deal was a good value.

 

... which could be interpreted as a mild recommendation. Unless you are opposed to good value...

[notin]

Hard disagree.

 

Would you give up Houck to get Castillo?

 

I'm on the fence...

[mvp 78]

Would you give up Houck to get Castillo?

 

I'm on the fence...

 

100%.

[moonslav59]

Martinez was coming off 5 fWAR and 8.5 fWAR back to back seasons. Castillo is NOT at that level. That trade is an ovepay

 

It's certainly based on some big assumptions for a pitcher about to turn 29 and with 2 years of control left.

 

We were able to extend Pedro. I'm not Castillo will, or if it's worth extending him.

 

The kid has a lot of talent and has shown he can pitch, though.

 

Last 3 yrs:

131 ERA+

3.56 FIP

[moonslav59]

100%.

 

The 5 years for 2 makes me worry, but I think I'd do it.

[notin]

I'm fine with deal #1.

 

That one feels like the most fair one to me. It does operate on the assumption that Suarez can handle 2B, which he probably can since he did come up as a shortstop with the Tigers and won moved off SS Sto 3B to accommodate a better defender in Zack Cozart.

[notin]

100%.

 

OK.

 

Opinions will be dividied on the subject, as others have already shown.

 

Obviously, that isn't likely to be the deal, assuming there is one at all...

[mvp 78]

OK.

 

Opinions will be dividied on the subject, as others have already shown.

 

Obviously, that isn't likely to be the deal, assuming there is one at all...

 

I won't hold my breath.

[mvp 78]

The 5 years for 2 makes me worry, but I think I'd do it.

 

Trade for him and extend him. You're only getting Castillo at that price point because of the lack of control. With Houck, I'm not sure if he gets any better as a pitcher. Right now, he's a back end starter. Would I rather 5 years of a back end starter or 2 years of an ace?

[notin]

I won't hold my breath.

 

I dare you to...

[moonslav59]

Trade for him and extend him. You're only getting Castillo at that price point because of the lack of control. With Houck, I'm not sure if he gets any better as a pitcher. Right now, he's a back end starter. Would I rather 5 years of a back end starter or 2 years of an ace?

 

Oh, I get how we get to yes.

 

I see Houck as a possible great closer for 5 years, but I'm all about top end SP'ing.

 

Yes, Castillo's control bothers me, but he has a nice K rate and the 7.7 Hits per 9 is nice.

[notin]

Oh, I get how we get to yes.

 

I see Houck as a possible great closer for 5 years, but I'm all about top end SP'ing.

 

Yes, Castillo's control bothers me, but he has a nice K rate and the 7.7 Hits per 9 is nice.

 

He was also very good over the last 4 months of last season. As there was a lot of speculation about how many starting pitchers would struggle after a lot of inactivity in 2020, his extremely slow start might easily be justified...

[mvp 78]

I dare you to...

 

Not today Satan.

[mvp 78]

Oh, I get how we get to yes.

 

I see Houck as a possible great closer for 5 years, but I'm all about top end SP'ing.

 

Yes, Castillo's control bothers me, but he has a nice K rate and the 7.7 Hits per 9 is nice.

 

I think Houck is a better fit in the pen too, but a guy like that has much less value than Castillo.

[harmony]

FWIW the 2022 Steamer and Marcel projections for Jarren Duran:

 

Steamer 372 PA, .252/.306/.412/.718, 0.7 fWAR

Marcel 256 PA, .236/.294/.386/.680

 

How much weight would a trade partner give the humble projections for Duran, who turns 26 years old near the end of that season?

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duranja01.shtml

[mvp 78]

FWIW the 2022 Steamer and Marcel projections for Jarren Duran:

 

Steamer 372 PA, .252/.306/.412/.718, 0.7 fWAR

Marcel 256 PA, .236/.294/.386/.680

 

How much weight would a trade partner give the humble projections for Duran, who turns 26 years old near the end of that season?

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duranja01.shtml

 

I'm sure if you are trading for Duran that you aren't expecting MVP numbers in 2022. I do find it interesting that they are giving him a 0.1 BsR for that many PA's.

[moonslav59]

FWIW the 2022 Steamer and Marcel projections for Jarren Duran:

 

Steamer 372 PA, .252/.306/.412/.718, 0.7 fWAR

Marcel 256 PA, .236/.294/.386/.680

 

How much weight would a trade partner give the humble projections for Duran, who turns 26 years old near the end of that season?

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duranja01.shtml

 

harmony, you know these projections are always very conservative.

 

What do the project Castillo, Montas, Bassit and Maneae to be?

[harmony]

harmony, you know these projections are always very conservative.

 

What do the project Castillo, Montas, Bassit and Maneae to be?

The Jarren Duran projections are in line with the "conservative" 2022 projections for speedy lefthand-hitting Seattle outfielder Jake Fraley, a plausible comp who is 16 months older than Duran.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fraleja01.shtml

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

at at some point, Cincinnati is probably going to ralize it is unwise to dump their worst contract in a package with their best trade bait...

 

I think we'd have to take on a sunken contract to get Castillo without giving up any of these 4.

 

 

Isn't this exactly what happened when Boston traded Mookie... and LA traded for Mookie? The point is, it can happen -- again.

 

I'm not torn about absorbing veteran deadweight if it means adding a potential number one starting pitcher. Castillo has been slightly inconsistent (Pedro was a bad comp on my part, because he was already the best pitcher in the NL when the Sox got him), but I'd still give up a lot for him -- even a promising pitcher...

 

... just not a guy who has shown flashes of greatness himself, with "limited" stuff that still has big leaguers describing him as "a right-handed Chris Sale." Trading the Red Sox' best young MLB pitcher defeats the purpose of adding more good pitching to a staff in dire need of depth.