A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[harmony]

Arauz played 68 games for WOO last year.

FWIW according to Baseball Reference, Jonathan Arauz lost his rookie status in 2020 and therefore did not qualify for prospect status when Arauz played for Worcester in 2021.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=arauz-000jon

[mvp 78]

FWIW according to Baseball Reference, Jonathan Arauz lost his rookie status in 2020 and therefore did not qualify for prospect status when Arauz played for Worcester in 2021.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=arauz-000jon

 

Did they prorate the 2020 season?

[notin]

Arauz played 68 games for WOO last year.

 

I was exciting that as you typed, but the idea is Arauz and Whitlock were never part of the Sox state that scouts were ranking and evaluating…

[mvp 78]

Last year's ranking from Keith:

 

Keith Law's Red Sox top 20 list:

 

1. Jeter Downs - 53

2. Triston Casas - 54

3. Jarren Duran

4. Jay Groome

5. Thad Ward

6. Gilberto Jimenez

7. Bryan Mata

8. Bobby Dalbec

9. Tanner Houck

10. Chris Murphy

11. Noah Song

12. Nick Yorke

13. Matthew Lugo

14. Cam Cannon

15. Andrew Politi

16. Eduard Bazardo

17. Jeisson Rosario

18. Connor Wong

19. Nick Decker

20. Blaze Jordan

[mvp 78]

However, to state that evaluators weren't including Whitlock is just wrong.

 

Kiley McDaniel released his team-by-team rankings. For the Red Sox:

 

1. Jeter Downs, 2B, 50 FV (41)

2. Triston Casas, 1B, 50 FV (49)

3. Jarren Duran, CF, 45+ FV (159)

4. Gilberto Jimenez, CF, 45+ FV (160)

5. Bryan Mata, RHP, 45+ FV (165)

6. Bobby Dalbec, 3B, 45 FV

7. Tanner Houck, RHP, 45 FV

8. Noah Song, RHP, 45 FV

9. Ronaldo Hernandez, C, 45 FV

10. Connor Seabold, RHP, 45 FV

11. Nick Yorke, SS, 40+ FV

12. Brayan Bello, RHP, 40+ FV

13. Thad Ward, RHP, 40+ FV

14. Brainer Bonaci, SS, 40 FV

15. Jeisson Rosario, CF, 40 FV

16. Hudson Potts, 3B, 40 FV

17. Garrett Whitlock, RHP, 40 FV

18. Connor Wong, C, 40 FV

19. Blaze Jordan, 1B, 40 FV

 

Also noted: 23. Miguel Bleis, RF, 40 FV

[mvp 78]

Baseball America 2021:

 

BA released their Top 30 prospect lists. The Red Sox list:

 

1. Triston Casas

2. Jeter Downs

3. Bobby Dalbec

4. Bryan Mata

5. Jarren Duran

6. Jay Groome

7. Gilberto Jimenez

8. Tanner Houck

9. Nick Yorke

10. Thad Ward

11. Connor Seabold

12. Noah Song

13. Chris Murphy

14. Matthew Lugo

15. Connor Wong

16. Blaze Jordan

17. Garrett Whitlock

18. Brainer Bonaci

19. Brayan Bello

20. Jeisson Rosario

21. Jonathan Arauz

22. Aldo Ramirez

23. Chih-Jung Liu

24. Hudson Potts

25. Jacob Wallace

26. Ceddanne Rafaela

27. Andrew Politi

28. Eduard Bazardo

29. Nick Decker

30. Jeremy Wu-Yelland

[mvp 78]

New MLB Pipeline top 30 for the Red Sox:

 

1. Triston Casas

2. Jeter Downs

3. Bobby Dalbec

4. Jarren Duran

5. Bryan Mata

6. Gilberto Jimenez

7. Tanner Houck

8. Jay Groome

9. Nick Yorke

10. Thad Ward

11. Blaze Jordan

12. Ronaldo Hernandez

13. Matthew Lugo

14. Noah Song

15. Connor Seabold

16. Brainer Bonaci

17. Connor Wong

18. Chris Murphy

19. Brayan Bello

20 Aldo Ramirez

21. Chih-Jung Liu

22. Jeisson Rosario

23. Nick Decker

24. Hudson Potts

25. Juan Chacon

26. Cameron Cannon

27. AJ Politi

28. Eduard Bazardo

29. Jacob Wallace

30. Garrett Whitlock

[dgalehouse]

It'd be a lot of work, but I have no doubt there would be a significant correlation.

 

Can you think of any way it would HURT to have a strong farm?

 

Only if you are forgoing obtaining/retaining quality players who can help the big club win now, in order to build up the farm for a tomorrow that never seems to come.

[Bellhorn04]

Only if you are forgoing obtaining/retaining quality players who can help the big club win now, in order to build up the farm for a tomorrow that never seems to come.

 

And that certainly does happen with some teams.

[notin]

However, to state that evaluators weren't including Whitlock is just wrong.

 

Kiley McDaniel released his team-by-team rankings. For the Red Sox:

 

1. Jeter Downs, 2B, 50 FV (41)

2. Triston Casas, 1B, 50 FV (49)

3. Jarren Duran, CF, 45+ FV (159)

4. Gilberto Jimenez, CF, 45+ FV (160)

5. Bryan Mata, RHP, 45+ FV (165)

6. Bobby Dalbec, 3B, 45 FV

7. Tanner Houck, RHP, 45 FV

8. Noah Song, RHP, 45 FV

9. Ronaldo Hernandez, C, 45 FV

10. Connor Seabold, RHP, 45 FV

11. Nick Yorke, SS, 40+ FV

12. Brayan Bello, RHP, 40+ FV

13. Thad Ward, RHP, 40+ FV

14. Brainer Bonaci, SS, 40 FV

15. Jeisson Rosario, CF, 40 FV

16. Hudson Potts, 3B, 40 FV

17. Garrett Whitlock, RHP, 40 FV

18. Connor Wong, C, 40 FV

19. Blaze Jordan, 1B, 40 FV

 

Also noted: 23. Miguel Bleis, RF, 40 FV

 

I never said anything about whether or not the evaluators were including Whitlock. I just said he was never part of the Red Sox farm. And to date, he hasn’t been…

[notin]

Only if you are forgoing obtaining/retaining quality players who can help the big club win now, in order to build up the farm for a tomorrow that never seems to come.

 

So should the Sox have retained Jon Lester and foregone the acquisition of Rick Porcello, who was a big part of the 2016-18 run?

[Bellhorn04]

So should the Sox have retained Jon Lester and foregone the acquisition of Rick Porcello, who was a big part of the 2016-18 run?

 

That's an odd example, since it has nothing to do with building the farm.

[notin]

That's an odd example, since it has nothing to do with building the farm.

 

 

True, but other than Betts, the Sox haven’t done much selling off of veterans for prospects lately. At least not veterans anyone cared about. (Sorry, Mr. Hembree.)

[moonslav59]

True, but other than Betts, the Sox haven’t done much selling off of veterans for prospects lately. At least not veterans anyone cared about. (Sorry, Mr. Hembree.)

 

Not real big Vets, but some were pretty good.

 

Price went with Betts, but many of us felt like that was a salary dump.

 

We traded Beni for what amounted to 5 players/prospects.

 

We traded Workman with Hembree (Pivetta & Seabold.)

 

Moreland for Rosario & Potts.

 

Pillar for Jacob Wallace.

 

And of course, the great Mazza and Springs for Ro. Hernandez.

 

 

[moonslav59]

That was what I wondered on the other thread. Duran and Downs dropping kinda offset Mayer and Yorke.

 

What offset the rise of Casas and Bello?

 

Did Duran's 112 first PAs in MLB really cancel out his .873 OPS in his first year at AAA?

 

While Jeter Downs certainly dropped off a cliff in AAA, he basically jumped a level. He did follow his AAA season with a decent Fall League OPS of .880.

 

Casas improved in AA (.879 to .830 in A/A+ the year before), then hit .866 in limited action at AAA. He followed than up with .982 in AZFL. Did Law move him up in his rankings?

 

Jordan and Groome's stock rose, but maybe that was offset by Jimenez and Mata's fall.

 

I can understand that other teams may have improved, too, but nobody else added Mayer. That alone, should have moved us up.

[notin]

Not real big Vets, but some were pretty good.

 

Price went with Betts, but many of us felt like that was a salary dump.

 

We traded Beni for what amounted to 5 players/prospects.

 

We traded Workman with Hembree (Pivetta & Seabold.)

 

Moreland for Rosario & Potts.

 

Pillar for Jacob Wallace.

 

And of course, the great Mazza and Springs for Ro. Hernandez.

 

 

 

Most of them were replaceable types, except an argument can be made for Benintendi…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Most of them were replaceable types, except an argument can be made for Benintendi…

 

I bet some fans still refuse to believe that in '22, Beni was at least as good as Renfroe -- 2.4 to 2.3 bWAR...

 

(... I'm only comparing those two outfielders, because there was a theory here that the savings from dumping Beni allowed Bloom to sign Renfroe; not that they have to be directly related, since part of Kiki's salary could have been seen as the difference in savings, or Sawamura's etc., etc.)

[moonslav59]

Most of them were replaceable types, except an argument can be made for Benintendi…

 

The haul seems pretty promising:

 

Pivetta

Seabold

Winckoski

R Hernandez

Others have some high upside but are raw, now.

[moonslav59]

I bet some fans still refuse to believe that in '22, Beni was at least as good as Renfroe -- 2.4 to 2.3 bWAR...

 

(... I'm only comparing those two outfielders, because there was a theory here that the savings from dumping Beni allowed Bloom to sign Renfroe; not that they have to be directly related, since part of Kiki's salary could have been seen as the difference in savings, or Sawamura's etc., etc.)

 

Renfroe + 5 players.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Renfroe + 5 players.

 

Like I said, the Renfroe transaction isn't directly connected, except that he just came from the '21 budget. As for the Beni Five, I have some hope for Winckowski (it'd be great if he can join the rotation sometime this year, and let us keep Whitlock as closer), and zero hope for Franchy. As for the other three prospects, maybe one of them will turn into something, even if it's trade capital.

[harmony]

What offset the rise of Casas and Bello?

 

Did Duran's 112 first PAs in MLB really cancel out his .873 OPS in his first year at AAA?

 

While Jeter Downs certainly dropped off a cliff in AAA, he basically jumped a level. He did follow his AAA season with a decent Fall League OPS of .880.

 

Casas improved in AA (.879 to .830 in A/A+ the year before), then hit .866 in limited action at AAA. He followed than up with .982 in AZFL. Did Law move him up in his rankings?

 

Jordan and Groome's stock rose, but maybe that was offset by Jimenez and Mata's fall.

 

I can understand that other teams may have improved, too, but nobody else added Mayer. That alone, should have moved us up.

Perhaps the evaluators gave less weight to Jarren Duran's Triple A numbers because of his extreme home/road splits:

 

Home: 112 AB, .304/.391/.679/1.070

Away: 132 AB, .220/.329/.379/.708

 

Playing nearly half of his games at Worcester's bandbox likely inflated his numbers.

 

wRC+ is a valuable statistic that, at the MLB level, is adjusted for league and park. However, at the minor league level, wRC+ is adjusted only for the league.

 

In a December comp of Duran and Seattle outfielder Taylor Trammell, one conclusion was that "Each enjoyed some success hitting at Triple A this year, although Duran had the edge" based on Duran's wRC+ of 132 and Trammell's wRC+ of 104.

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18170-Should-Jackie-Bradley-Jr-be-traded?p=1446206&highlight=trammell#post1446206

 

Of course, those wRC+ were league-adjusted only, not park-adjusted. The pitcher-friendly Triple A East (International League) boosted Duran's wRC+ while the hitter-friendly Triple A West (Pacific Coast League) lowered Trammell's wRC+.

 

But wRC+ does not take into account that Tacoma's sea-level, heavy-air ballpark is among the pitcher-friendliest in the Triple A West. Trammell's home/road splits reflect the difference:

 

Home: 126 AB, .238/.331/.389/.720

Away: 148 AB, .284/.388/.514/.902

 

The discrepancy between the 2021 Triple A wRC+ of Duran and Trammell should have been less if the numbers had been park-adjusted.

 

Or not.

[Bellhorn04]

I bet some fans still refuse to believe that in '22, Beni was at least as good as Renfroe -- 2.4 to 2.3 bWAR...

 

(... I'm only comparing those two outfielders, because there was a theory here that the savings from dumping Beni allowed Bloom to sign Renfroe; not that they have to be directly related, since part of Kiki's salary could have been seen as the difference in savings, or Sawamura's etc., etc.)

 

Beni really fattened his WAR at the end of the year. Arguably in 'garbage time'.

 

His OPS was .689 on Sept. 3, 1.048 the rest of the way.

[moonslav59]

Like I said, the Renfroe transaction isn't directly connected, except that he just came from the '21 budget. As for the Beni Five, I have some hope for Winckowski (it'd be great if he can join the rotation sometime this year, and let us keep Whitlock as closer), and zero hope for Franchy. As for the other three prospects, maybe one of them will turn into something, even if it's trade capital.

 

Franchy plus 4 prospects:

 

#13 Josh Winckowski

https://soxprospects.com/players/winckowski-josh.htm

 

(unranked) Freddy Valdez

https://soxprospects.com/players/valdez-freddy.htm

 

#54 Grant Gambrell

https://soxprospects.com/players/gambrell-grant.htm

 

#55 Luis de la Rosa

https://soxprospects.com/players/delarosa-luis.htm

[moonslav59]

Perhaps the evaluators gave less weight to Jarren Duran's Triple A numbers because of his extreme home/road splits:

 

Home: 112 AB, .304/.391/.679/1.070

Away: 132 AB, .220/.329/.379/.708

 

Playing nearly half of his games at Worcester's bandbox likely inflated his numbers.

 

wRC+ is a valuable statistic that, at the MLB level, is adjusted for league and park. However, at the minor league level, wRC+ is adjusted only for the league.

 

In a December comp of Duran and Seattle outfielder Taylor Trammell, one conclusion was that "Each enjoyed some success hitting at Triple A this year, although Duran had the edge" based on Duran's wRC+ of 132 and Trammell's wRC+ of 104.

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18170-Should-Jackie-Bradley-Jr-be-traded?p=1446206&highlight=trammell#post1446206

 

Of course, those wRC+ were league-adjusted only, not park-adjusted. The pitcher-friendly Triple A East (International League) boosted Duran's wRC+ while the hitter-friendly Triple A West (Pacific Coast League) lowered Trammell's wRC+.

 

But wRC+ does not take into account that Tacoma's sea-level, heavy-air ballpark is among the pitcher-friendliest in the Triple A West. Trammell's home/road splits reflect the difference:

 

Home: 126 AB, .238/.331/.389/.720

Away: 148 AB, .284/.388/.514/.902

 

The discrepancy between the 2021 Triple A wRC+ of Duran and Trammell should have been less if the numbers had been park-adjusted.

 

Or not.

 

Good point, but his H & A splits were pretty even in his previous season.

[Bellhorn04]

Perhaps the evaluators gave less weight to Jarren Duran's Triple A numbers because of his extreme home/road splits:

 

Home: 112 AB, .304/.391/.679/1.070

Away: 132 AB, .220/.329/.379/.708

 

Playing nearly half of his games at Worcester's bandbox likely inflated his numbers.

 

That's negative commentary on both the player and the park!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Beni really fattened his WAR at the end of the year. Arguably in 'garbage time'.

 

His OPS was .689 on Sept. 3, 1.048 the rest of the way.

 

Ok, but we also know how Hunter did in 'treasure time' in October. That's just one context, but in Boston's last postseason, Beni led the Sox in hits and runs. They both also made arguably the play of the playoffs in '18 and '21... though Beni actually caught his.

[harmony]

That's negative commentary on both the player and the park!

Curiously, the 2021 Worcester WooSox as a team had nearly identical home/away splits:

 

https://www.milb.com/worcester/stats/team?split=h

 

https://www.milb.com/worcester/stats/team?split=a

[moonslav59]

Curiously, the 2021 Worcester WooSox as a team had nearly identical home/away splits:

 

https://www.milb.com/worcester/stats/team?split=h

 

https://www.milb.com/worcester/stats/team?split=a

 

Kinda takes the steam away fromyour Duran point.

[jad]

Ok, but we also know how Hunter did in 'treasure time' in October. That's just one context, but in Boston's last postseason, Beni led the Sox in hits and runs. They both also made arguably the play of the playoffs in '18 and '21... though Beni actually caught his.

 

Renfroe's play right up there with Manny's catch, high-fiving the fan, and doubling up the runner at first.

 

(And who was the guy--good hitter, horrible glove--who over-ran the ball in left, reached back, and caught it bare-handed with his throwing hand?)

[harmony]

Kinda takes the steam away fromyour Duran point.

It's evidence that this poster provides relevant information but is rarely here to make a point.