A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Old Red]

The difference between saying Kike was the best Sox defensive CF'er I have seen is that I was comparing him to other CF'ers I have seen play almost every game of their careers. That's a whole lot different from saying a Sox player was the best in all of MLB. I don't watch nearly every game of every player on other teams, like I do with the Sox.

 

I do watch 162 games of other players who are facing just the Sox, but that is very far from knowing just how good other players are on other teams.

 

That is where data and metrics help me know. The eye test is still part of my determination of about where a Sox player fits in the rankings, but data plays a big role.

 

Anyone who watched Yaz in '67 "knew" he was the MVP, but would we have known that, if we saw the stat sheet show another player his .360 50 150 while winning a GG?

 

Of course, we have to look at the numbers others put up, because we don't watch them play everyday.

 

 

The only data I want to see is a box score, which going back to the old Sporting News papers I am a junkie.

[dgalehouse]

Analytics / metrics have a value when building a roster and making the best use of that roster . Sports franchises recognize this and try to use it to their advantage. There are some fans who love to comb through all the numbers as well. However , I think the average fan is not much interested in analytics , and even turned off when teams , reporters and announcers constantly mention them. They prefer to just watch the games , enjoy them and form their own opinions. These fans make up the bulk of MLB's paying customers. MLB is part of the entertainment industry . And they need to remember that.

[Tedballgame]

Sox should try to trade JBJ for Kimbrel. One bad contract for another but Kimbrel could help the bullpen. Money is about equal.

[Tedballgame]

The only data I want to see is a box score, which going back to the old Sporting News papers I am a junkie.

 

i use to save all of my Sporting News. Those were awesome. The material in them was far reaching covering major and minor leagues. There is nothing like that today.

[Bellhorn04]

That's the batter vs fielder aspect of one on one.

 

No, because the batter has to deal with the pitcher and the fielders as a unit.

 

And the pitcher has to rely on his fielders unless he strikes out the hitter.

 

Baseball and football have more similarities than differences. Both involve a lot of team play.

[moonslav59]

No, because the batter has to deal with the pitcher and the fielders as a unit.

 

And the pitcher has to rely on his fielders unless he strikes out the hitter.

 

Baseball and football have more similarities than differences. Both involve a lot of team play.

 

Yes, the fielder affects the pitcher's results and numbers, but it's not like they are acting together to make a play- like a gang tackle or a throw by a QB and a catch by a receiver.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, the fielder affects the pitcher's results and numbers, but it's not like they are acting together to make a play- like a gang tackle or a throw by a QB and a catch by a receiver.

 

There's generally more physical separation in baseball, no question about that.

[moonslav59]

There's generally more physical separation in baseball, no question about that.

 

Yes, but I think it goes beyond actual distance.

 

O and D lines really have to work together in complicated and complimentary ways.

 

A QB-WR relationship may be compared to a pitcher-catcher relationship, but I still see the QB-WR relationship as more like teamwork than the P-C one.

 

Basketball is way ahead of baseball in teamwork.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Part I of this thread will last to July.

[notin]

BN

 

A QB-WR relationship may be compared to a pitcher-catcher relationship, but I still see the QB-WR relationship as more like teamwork than the P-C one.

 

I’m not so sure.

 

The QB/WR relationship only results in maybe 10-15 plays in a game at its biggest. And sometimes less than 5 plays.

 

Pitchers throw to catchers upwards of 100 times very frequently.

 

The real difference is in the ensuing action. A QB/WR relationship is viewed as successful with every completion, as these ultimately drive the ball down enter field. But the pitcher-catcher relationship actually works best when the ball isn’t put in play, or is put in play weakly. The lack of ensuing action often makes the relationship look rather bland and uneventful and therefore inconsequential. But, unlike wide receivers, catchers are far more involved in the action, frequently calling pitch sequences for both type of pitch and location. Wide receivers have no such equivalent input…

[notin]

Sox should try to trade JBJ for Kimbrel. One bad contract for another but Kimbrel could help the bullpen. Money is about equal.

 

 

Kimbrel won’t help the bullpen if he pitches like he did for the White Sox…

[moonslav59]

Lets say Bloom "splurges" a little bit and signs Suzuki and Collin McHugh. Could this be the Opening Day 26 man roster?

 

SP: Eovaldi, Sale, Wacha, Pivetta, Hill (Paxton later in season)

RP: Houck, Whitlock, McHugh, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Davis, Sawamura (DHern)

C: Vaz & Plawecki

1B: Dalbec (Casas later in season)

2B: Hernandez/Arroyo

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Verdugo

CF: JBJ/Hernandez

RF: Suzuki

DH: Martinez

OF: Duran

IF: Arauz (Down later in season)

 

Line-Up:

1. Kike 2B/CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogaerts SS

4. Martinez DH

5. Suzuki RF

6. Verdugo LF v R/ Dalbec 1B v L

7. Dalbec 1B v R/ Verdugo LF v L

8. Vaz C

9. JBJ CF v R/ Arroyo 2B v L

 

[mvp 78]

JBJ 19-21: 2.1 fWAR

Kimbrel 19-21: 1.2 fWAR

 

No deal!

[moonslav59]

Sox players with 3 or more years of team control:

 

SP:

Sale(3/4), Pivetta(3), Paxton (1/2/3), Winckoski, Seabold, Crawford, Mata, Groome

Bello, Mata, Song, Ward, Gonzalez, Murphy

 

RP:

Houck, Whitlock, Barnes (3), Taylor, Davis, DHern, Sawamura, Valdez, Bazardo

Walter

 

C:

R Hernandez, Wong

Hickey, Cottam

 

1B:

Dalbec

Casas

 

2B:

Arroyo(3), Arauz

Yorke

 

3B:

Potts

Binelas, Jordan

 

SS:

Bogaerts (1 or 4/5), Downs

Mayer,Hamilton, Bonaci, Lugo

 

OF:

Verdugo(3), Duran, Rosario

Jimenez, Bleis, McDonough, Rafaela

 

[harmony]

MLB Trade Rumors asks: Who is blocking Triston Casas?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/whos-blocking-triston-casas.html#comments

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB Trade Rumors asks: Who is blocking Triston Casas?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/whos-blocking-triston-casas.html#comments

 

He weighs 265, so it would probably take a triple team of El Guapo, Big Panda, and an enraged Incredible Houck.

[moonslav59]

PAs from 2021 to 2022 (as of now)

 

664 Devers >664

634 JD M> 634

604 Verdugo> 654 +50

603 Bogey> 653 +50

585 Kike> 650 +75

498 Vaz> 498

453 Dalbec> 528 +75

181 Arroyo> 381 +200

173 Plawecki> 173

112 Duran> 312 +200

75 Arauz> 75

That's 600 more PAs from this group.

 

The rest...

572 Renfroe>0

271 Marwin> 0

168 Schwarber>0

136 Cordero> ?0?

127 Santana>0

82 Chavis, 64 Iggy, 48 Shaw > 0

Who gets these "extra" 900 or so PAs the top list can't make-up?

 

?450 JBJ

?450 Acquisitions in the OF and/or 2B?

Casas, Cordero, Refsnyder, Downs, Munoz, Wong?

 

 

 

 

[harmony]

ESPN columnist Keith Law writes that Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran just missed his Top 100 prospect list:

 

https://theathletic.com/3097146/2022/02/01/just-missed-list-the-baseball-prospects-right-behind-keith-laws-2022-top-100/

 

Subscription required.

 

Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke, Triston Casas and Brayan Bello made Law's earlier Top 100 list.

 

https://theathletic.com/3074113/2022/01/31/top-100-mlb-prospects-2022-keith-laws-rankings-with-adley-rutschman-at-no-1/

[moonslav59]

ESPN columnist Keith Law writes that Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran just missed his Top 100 prospect list:

 

https://theathletic.com/3097146/2022/02/01/just-missed-list-the-baseball-prospects-right-behind-keith-laws-2022-top-100/

 

Subscription required.

 

Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke, Triston Casas and Brayan Bello made Law's earlier Top 100 list.

 

https://theathletic.com/3074113/2022/01/31/top-100-mlb-prospects-2022-keith-laws-rankings-with-adley-rutschman-at-no-1/

 

So, six in maybe the top 110 or 120.

 

Not bad!

 

Thanks Bloom and DD!

[Bellhorn04]

So, six in maybe the top 110 or 120.

 

Not bad!

 

Thanks Bloom and DD!

 

Indeed. Good times ahead!

[mvp 78]

ESPN columnist Keith Law writes that Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran just missed his Top 100 prospect list:

 

https://theathletic.com/3097146/2022/02/01/just-missed-list-the-baseball-prospects-right-behind-keith-laws-2022-top-100/

 

Subscription required.

 

Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke, Triston Casas and Brayan Bello made Law's earlier Top 100 list.

 

https://theathletic.com/3074113/2022/01/31/top-100-mlb-prospects-2022-keith-laws-rankings-with-adley-rutschman-at-no-1/

 

Downs and Duran both have a lot to prove this season. It's probably a bigger season for those two than anyone else in the org.

[harmony]

Downs and Duran both have a lot to prove this season. It's probably a bigger season for those two than anyone else in the org.

The Cooler.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Who is #7?

 

Seabold?

Groome?

Jordan?

Winckowski?

Mata?

Jimenez?

Bleis?

Song?

[moonslav59]

Which Non 40 Man Roster player has the best chance to make a positive influence on the 2022 Red Sox- not counting possible acquisitions?

 

Some choices:

 

Casas

Feltman

Cordero

Munoz

K Hart

B Keller

Z Kelly

M Feliz

F German

K Ort

T Cole

R Fitzgerald

D Hamilton

J Mieses

K Cottam

P Castellanos

Refsnyder

D Granberg

B Howlett

T Dearden

Edited February 1, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

soxprospects has JBJ listed as the 4th OF'er with Verdugo in RF and Kike in CF.

They also have Arroyo on the bench.

 

They have 4 slots listed as "Acquisition:"

 

2B

LF

Closer

RP2

 

Houck and Whitlock are listed as "Rotation/Long Relief."

[mvp 78]

@OverTheMonster

Red Sox lineup on the day of Brady's first start:

 

1. José Offerman, 2B

2. Darren Lewis, LF

3. Trot Nixon, CF

4. Brian Daubach, RF

5. Morgan Burkhart, 1B

6. Scott Hatteberg, DH

7. Shea Hillenbrand, 3B

8. Doug Mirabelli, C

9. Lou Merloni, SS

SP: Frank Castillo

 

I don't remember the Morgan Burkhart experience. I must have been blackout drunk the summer of 2000.

[moonslav59]

 

I don't remember the Morgan Burkhart experience. I must have been blackout drunk the summer of 2000.

 

The guy had a .935 OPS in 95 PAs (most at DH), that year, but then fell off a cliff.

 

Left MLB with a career .814 OPS.

 

(I don't remember him either. Daubach, Offerman and Stanley played 1B, that season. Rico Brogna played more 1B than Morgan, that year.)

[mvp 78]

In his last season of indie ball, he hit 404 with 36 HR and an OPS of 1417. I wonder if his career would have turned out differently if he got into an MLB org earlier in his career.

[moonslav59]

In his last season of indie ball, he hit 404 with 36 HR and an OPS of 1417. I wonder if his career would have turned out differently if he got into an MLB org earlier in his career.

 

Saw the movie American Underdog," yesterday. Made me think how many potentially great players never got a shot and missed the glory.

[mvp 78]

Saw the movie American Underdog," yesterday. Made me think how many potentially great players never got a shot and missed the glory.

 

I don't think he would have gotten much glory, but maybe they could have worked with him at an earlier age and got him to be a serviceable major leaguer? Dude clearly had pop and was able to take a walk.