A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Schwarber has spent about 40% of his career PAs batting 1st or 2nd. Of his career 2579 PA's, only 1046 have been with men on base, 435 of which have been with just a man on 1B. That leaves only 611 with RISP. He has 35 carreer RBI and 153 career home runs. meaning he has driven in other runners 197 times. (Most sluggers drive in themselves more than anyone else.)

 

Schwarber has come up with 1,476 runners on base in his career and driven in 197 of them. Or roughly 13.3%. Most "RBI men" drive in about 14-18% of the runners on base. So he is just shy of this level of production, and a big part is he does tend to take A LOT of walks that rarely drive in runners.

 

JD Martinez has been better in this regard, driving in 17.9% of all runners on base (571 out of 3,176)...

 

It's like calling Kike unproductive, because he didn't drive in 90 runs from the lead off slot.

[mvp 78]

If I'm the GM, I'd make a run at Freddie Freeman. I believe he easily has 3 to 5 years left in him. The last time we got him out was 2015 and he got hurt during that game. Dude can hit and get on base.

 

I think the Braves will break the bank to keep him around.

[moonslav59]

I think the Braves will break the bank to keep him around.

 

They just announced they will spend more.

 

Several teams have.

 

With Dalbec and Casas, I doubt 1B is even a position we are thinking about adding to.

[moonslav59]

I can't believe there were no other RF'ers in the AL worthy of nominating for RF GG other than Renfroe.

[moonslav59]

Last winter, we protected 7 player for Rule 5:

 

LHP Jay Groome

RHP Connor Seabold

C Connor Wong

RHP Eduard Bazardo

3B Hudson Potts

RHP Bryan Mata

OF Jeisson Rosario

 

We selected Whitlock from the Yanks.

 

How much drama will there be this year?

 

We currently have 7 open slots on the 40, not counting ERod. Here are our possible Rule 5 players needing protection:

 

Rule 5 Candidates

 

Certain:

Downs

Bello

Winckowski

 

Probable:

Santos

Crawford

Feltman

 

Possible:

Cottam

Jimenez

Ward

[notin]

Last winter, we protected 7 player for Rule 5:

 

LHP Jay Groome

RHP Connor Seabold

C Connor Wong

RHP Eduard Bazardo

3B Hudson Potts

RHP Bryan Mata

OF Jeisson Rosario

 

We selected Whitlock from the Yanks.

 

How much drama will there be this year?

 

We currently have 7 open slots on the 40, not counting ERod. Here are our possible Rule 5 players needing protection:

 

Rule 5 Candidates

 

Certain:

Downs

Bello

Winckowski

 

Probable:

Santos

Crawford

Feltman

 

Possible:

Cottam

Jimenez

Ward

 

I see you demoted Crawford. I had him as a "no way" but you made a decent argument for him. Sp "Probable" is fine with me.

 

Now maybe they protect Ward. Myself, I put him in the "No f***ing Way" category. But we'll see how Bloom feels. I think I would feel much, much differently if he was going to pitch before August this season, assuming he pitches at all...

[moonslav59]

I see you demoted Crawford. I had him as a "no way" but you made a decent argument for him. Sp "Probable" is fine with me.

 

Now maybe they protect Ward. Myself, I put him in the "No f***ing Way" category. But we'll see how Bloom feels. I think I would feel much, much differently if he was going to pitch before August this season, assuming he pitches at all...

 

I originally had Crawford in "possible," but MVP talked me into jacking hium up.

 

I could agree to removing Ward from "possible."

 

What are your thoughts on Santos and Feltman?

 

[Tedballgame]

If I'm the GM, I'd make a run at Freddie Freeman. I believe he easily has 3 to 5 years left in him. The last time we got him out was 2015 and he got hurt during that game. Dude can hit and get on base.

 

A) He isn't leaving Atlanta

He wouldn't hit many homers to RF in Boston

C) Boston doesn't need a first baseman on a long contract

D) Atlanta won't let him leave. They will match any offer.

E) Atlanta just won the WS!

 

Forget about it!

[notin]

I originally had Crawford in "possible," but MVP talked me into jacking hium up.

 

I could agree to removing Ward from "possible."

 

What are your thoughts on Santos and Feltman?

 

 

I think I'd keep Santos over Feltman, who's barely pitched in the minors and would be a real project for a claiming team and who has simply not lived up to his pre-draft hype....

[moonslav59]

A) He isn't leaving Atlanta

He wouldn't hit many homers to RF in Boston

C) Boston doesn't need a first baseman on a long contract

D) Atlanta won't let him leave. They will match any offer.

E) Atlanta just won the WS!

 

Forget about it!

 

He reminds me of Joey Votto, who is Mr. Cincinnati.

 

Freeman is Mr. Atlanta.

 

[notin]

A) He isn't leaving Atlanta

He wouldn't hit many homers to RF in Boston

C) Boston doesn't need a first baseman on a long contract

D) Atlanta won't let him leave. They will match any offer.

E) Atlanta just won the WS!

 

Forget about it!

 

Actually, he might wind up in New York.

 

The Yankees need lefty bats and have the off/on/injured Luke Voit at 1B. If they cannot add Seager at SS, they just lost Rizzo to free agency and are not exactly strangers to grabbing former NL MVPs at high prices...

[moonslav59]

I think I'd keep Santos over Feltman, who's barely pitched in the minors and would be a real project for a claiming team and who has simply not lived up to his pre-draft hype....

 

So, maybe you'd protect 3: Winckowski, Downs and Santos? (Jimenez is your maybe?)

[notin]

He reminds me of Joey Votto, who is Mr. Cincinnati.

 

Freeman is Mr. Atlanta.

 

 

What about Ronald Acuna? Senor Atlanta?

[notin]

So, maybe you'd protect 3: Winckowski, Downs and Santos? (Jimenez is your maybe?)

 

Three to five, with those guys as my choices.

 

Of course, Bloom will probably protect a player or two I never considered...

[moonslav59]

Actually, he might wind up in New York.

 

The Yankees need lefty bats and have the off/on/injured Luke Voit at 1B. If they cannot add Seager at SS, they just lost Rizzo to free agency and are not exactly strangers to grabbing former NL MVPs at high prices...

 

Atlanta is smart how they spend their money. They may not view over-spending on 1B is smart.

 

I just can't imagine Freeman anywhere else but Atlanta, though.

[notin]

Atlanta is smart how they spend their money. They may not view over-spending on 1B is smart.

 

I just can't imagine Freeman anywhere else but Atlanta, though.

 

They already spent a ton on Freeman, who just completed an 8 year $135mill deal for them. He's 31 years old, and while he probably has a few good years left, it also will matter heavily how many years he demands...

[Bellhorn04]

They already spent a ton on Freeman, who just completed an 8 year $135mill deal for them. He's 31 years old, and while he probably has a few good years left, it also will matter heavily how many years he demands...

 

Freeman just completed an 8 year deal?

 

Holy crap I'm old.

[mvp 78]

Last winter, we protected 7 player for Rule 5:

 

LHP Jay Groome

RHP Connor Seabold

C Connor Wong

RHP Eduard Bazardo

3B Hudson Potts

RHP Bryan Mata

OF Jeisson Rosario

 

We selected Whitlock from the Yanks.

 

How much drama will there be this year?

 

We currently have 7 open slots on the 40, not counting ERod. Here are our possible Rule 5 players needing protection:

 

Rule 5 Candidates

 

Certain:

Downs

Bello

Winckowski

 

Probable:

Santos

Crawford

Feltman

 

Possible:

Cottam

Jimenez

Ward

 

I could see them protecting Downs/Bello/Winckowski/Santos/Crawford/Feltman/Cottam.

[mvp 78]

I originally had Crawford in "possible," but MVP talked me into jacking hium up.

 

That's because I'm good at posting.

[mvp 78]

I think I'd keep Santos over Feltman, who's barely pitched in the minors and would be a real project for a claiming team and who has simply not lived up to his pre-draft hype....

 

Feltman has barely pitched?

[mvp 78]

What about Ronald Acuna? Senor Atlanta?

 

They won the WS without that choker.

[moonslav59]

That's because I'm good at posting.

 

I should have known better than to jack up your ego!

 

LOL

 

[mvp 78]

I should have known better than to jack up your ego!

 

LOL

 

 

I'm the super-ego of TalkSox.

[moonslav59]

I'm the super-ego of TalkSox.

 

Again, I find myself agreeing with you.

 

Makes me think I need to re-examine my whole foundation of thought.

[notin]

Feltman has barely pitched?

 

 

He's been in the organization for 5 years and has 126 career IP in the minors. Yes, he is a relief pitcher, but that is still not s lot of pitching to evaluate anybody. Plenty of MLB relievers start in the minors and rack up actual IP so people have a clue how good or bad they are...

[notin]

They won the WS without that choker.

 

 

.. which will make him one of the best offseason additions any defending champion ever made...

[moonslav59]

He's been in the organization for 5 years and has 126 career IP in the minors. Yes, he is a relief pitcher, but that is still not s lot of pitching to evaluate anybody. Plenty of MLB relievers start in the minors and rack up actual IP so people have a clue how good or bad they are...

 

It's not something that jumps out as an issue, though.

[mvp 78]

He's been in the organization for 5 years and has 126 career IP in the minors. Yes, he is a relief pitcher, but that is still not s lot of pitching to evaluate anybody. Plenty of MLB relievers start in the minors and rack up actual IP so people have a clue how good or bad they are...

 

1. He's only been in the org for 4 years.

2. He missed 2020 as did the vast majority of players.

3. He's been a full time player since he's been in the org.

4. He's appeared in over 100 games. He basically has the same usage as Kimbrel did after being drafted.

[oldtimer]

I could see us signing one of ERod, Stroman, R Ray, Glausman or Rodon.

 

Maybe we can work out a trade for Montas (2 yrs left) and get them to add Trivino, but I'm not sure we have the pieces and Bloom is willing to part with a few prospects (like maybe Duran, Downs and Groome).

 

Sign a cheap infield utility guy like Iggy.

 

Add a decent pen arm or two- nothing too costly is more likely.

 

Eovaldi, Montas, Sale, ERod, Pivetta, Seabold

Houck, Whitlock, FA, FA, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor

Vaz & Wong

Dalbec

Arroyo & Iggy

Bogey

Devers

Verdugo & Duran

Kike

Renfroe & Locastro

JD

 

Rest of 40 man:

Groome, Winckowski, Crawford, Mata, Bello, Santos

DHern, Valdez, Davis, Sawamura, Bazardo, Feltman

RHern

Downs

 

Not on 40 man but may help in 2022:

Casas, Munoz, Cordero

 

 

so where are we going?

 

1st Base Dalbec/Casas

2nd Base FA/Arroyo

SS Bogey

3rd Base Devers (lets extend him now)

LF Verdugo

CF Kike

RF FA (Marte)/Renfroe (Might we best trade Renfroe and get a more reliable hitter in the playoffs)

C Vaz, Prospect

DH JDM (Can't see both JDM and Schwaber)

 

Utility OF(Duran or Locastro), IF(Arroyo), IF(Casas)

 

SP Eovaldi, FA, Sale, E-Rod, Pivetta, (Houck 6th starter or long relief)

 

RP Whitlock, FA (Gravemen), Brasier, Taylor, Houck, Barnes, (Sawamura or D-Hernandez)Hernandez might be a fit as a second lefty

 

Can we afford a FA 2nd or 3rd starter, a middle range FA RP, a FA 2nd Baseman and a FA replacement for Renfroe? Based upon who will be back, I see these move areas as the most likely.

[moonslav59]

so where are we going?

 

1st Base Dalbec/Casas

2nd Base FA/Arroyo

SS Bogey

3rd Base Devers (lets extend him now)

LF Verdugo

CF Kike

RF FA (Marte)/Renfroe (Might we best trade Renfroe and get a more reliable hitter in the playoffs)

C Vaz, Prospect

DH JDM (Can't see both JDM and Schwaber)

 

Utility OF(Duran or Locastro), IF(Arroyo), IF(Casas)

 

SP Eovaldi, FA, Sale, E-Rod, Pivetta, (Houck 6th starter or long relief)

 

RP Whitlock, FA (Gravemen), Brasier, Taylor, Houck, Barnes, (Sawamura or D-Hernandez)Hernandez might be a fit as a second lefty

 

Can we afford a FA 2nd or 3rd starter, a middle range FA RP, a FA 2nd Baseman and a FA replacement for Renfroe? Based upon who will be back, I see these move areas as the most likely.

 

If we can spend $40-45M, we could do something like this:

 

$18M ERod

$14M R Iglesias

$9M Graveman

$3M Iggy

 

If it's $35-40M?

$14M R Iglesias

$9M S Matz

$9M Graveman

$3M Iggy