A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

The Sox might not add as many as we suspect.

 

I see 4 as certain:

Bello

Downs

Crawford

Winckowski

 

2 as near certain:

Feltman

Santos

 

Maybe 3+ as possibilities:

Jimenez

Ward

Cottam (non-tender Plawecki?)

 

[Larry Cook]

I see 4 as certain:

Bello

Downs

Crawford

Winckowski

 

2 as near certain:

Feltman

Santos

 

Maybe 3+ as possibilities:

Jimenez

Ward

Cottam (non-tender Plawecki?)

 

 

I really like cottam. But we have Hernandez and wong!

[moonslav59]

I really like cottam. But we have Hernandez and wong!

 

If nobody claims Cottam, we can keep him, anyway.

 

We can also DFA Plawecki and have the same amount of catchers on the roster (4).

[notin]

I see 4 as certain:

Bello

Downs

Crawford

Winckowski

 

2 as near certain:

Feltman

Santos

 

Maybe 3+ as possibilities:

Jimenez

Ward

Cottam (non-tender Plawecki?)

 

 

I’m far less confident that Kutter Crawford is added than you are.

[moonslav59]

I’m far less confident that Kutter Crawford is added than you are.

 

You were making strong cases for Jimenez, and now you are trying to say only 3 will be protected? (Maybe 4?)

[notin]

You were making strong cases for Jimenez, and now you are trying to say only 3 will be protected? (Maybe 4?)

 

Crawford has a much lower ceiling. He might get taken, but that doesn’t make him worth a spot on the 40 man.

 

Wasn’t he on the 40 man roster briefly last year?

[notin]

You were making strong cases for Jimenez, and now you are trying to say only 3 will be protected? (Maybe 4?)

 

Last year the Sox added 6 or 7. This year, I have no idea. I’m certainly not committing to a number. Beyond Downs and Winckowski, I am not real certain of anyone. I could even see Bello not getting protected…

[moonslav59]

Crawford has a much lower ceiling. He might get taken, but that doesn’t make him worth a spot on the 40 man.

 

Wasn’t he on the 40 man roster briefly last year?

 

Not really. It was that COVID taxi squad thingy. I think.

[moonslav59]

Last year the Sox added 6 or 7. This year, I have no idea. I’m certainly not committing to a number. Beyond Downs and Winckowski, I am not real certain of anyone. I could even see Bello not getting protected…

 

Bello is 150% protected.

 

I could see Crawford being put in the "nearly certain" category, and I have not "committed" to anything more than 4 (3 without Crawford), but I'm pretty certain we go 5-6.

 

What happened to your Jimenez band wagon?

[notin]

Not really. It was that COVID taxi squad thingy. I think.

 

I was wondering. So that does mean he hasn’t least been exposed to waivers. Well that ruins that aspect of my argument.

 

There are reasons to keep Crawford (depth) and reasons to not sweat protecting him (every team already has a 25yo mediocre pitcher in AAA already)…

Edited November 7, 2021 by notin

[notin]

Bello is 150% protected.

 

I could see Crawford being put in the "nearly certain" category, and I have not "committed" to anything more than 4 (3 without Crawford), but I'm pretty certain we go 5-6.

 

What happened to your Jimenez band wagon?

 

Bello probably gets protected, but he is essentially an A ball pitcher with no real dazzling repertoire and no history behind him. He just kind of broke out at age 22, while in A ball. He really represents a lot of questions going forward. Since his brief stint in AA was kind of meh, will he continue to get better? Was 2021 just a really good season?

 

He might get protected largely due to the number of available spots, plus I doubt the Sox sign too many free agents…

[Bellhorn04]

My only reason to keep Kutter Crawford would be his name. Unfortunately, that was my same reasoning with Sam Travis.

[notin]

So when is JD Martinez making his decision? This is Day 5, right?

[moonslav59]

I was wondering. So that does mean he hasn’t least been exposed to waivers. Well that ruins that aspect of my argument.

 

There are reasons to keep Crawford (depth) and reasons to not sweat protecting him (every team already has a 25yo mediocre pitcher in AAA already)…

 

A guy with an improving K rate of 10.2 (A+)> 11.9 (AA)> 12.5 (AAA) would likely be taken by someone willing to lose chump change, if he fails. The only issue, to me, is if Bloom likes him better than others fighting for the 40th slot and in danger of being selected or claimed off waivers.

 

I'm pretty certain Crawford will be picked, if left unprotected.

[moonslav59]

Bello probably gets protected, but he is essentially an A ball pitcher with no real dazzling repertoire and no history behind him. He just kind of broke out at age 22, while in A ball. He really represents a lot of questions going forward. Since his brief stint in AA was kind of meh, will he continue to get better? Was 2021 just a really good season?

 

On a team with so few good pitching prospects, Bello is one of the best.

 

To me, he's the flip side of Crawford. He's good enough to keep, for sure, and the question is mostly about will other teams take him- knowing he likely will not pitch much at all in the bigs in 2022.

[notin]

A guy with an improving K rate of 10.2 (A+)> 11.9 (AA)> 12.5 (AAA) would likely be taken by someone willing to lose chump change, if he fails. The only issue, to me, is if Bloom likes him better than others fighting for the 40th slot and in danger of being selected or claimed off waivers.

 

I'm pretty certain Crawford will be picked, if left unprotected.

 

 

That’s a fair argument.

 

If so, we’re still not looking at a huge amount of protectees. Last year, Bloom added like 7 players. This year could easily be 2-5.

 

Some of the newly protected and unprotected could be dealt between today and the Rule 5 draft as well…

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Sox sign too many free agents…

 

I have made the point that we have way fewer slots to fill, this winter vs last, and we have Rule 5 players to add and maybe Casas and Seabold adding something to the 2022 26 man roster, but I can't see us signing or trading for less than 3-4 significant players to the 26. Then, we may also add some minor league depth that requires 40 man roster inclusion.

[moonslav59]

That’s a fair argument.

 

If so, we’re still not looking at a huge amount of protectees. Last year, Bloom added like 7 players. This year could easily be 2-5.

 

Some of the newly protected and unprotected could be dealt between today and the Rule 5 draft as well…

 

I always think that, but it hardly ever happens. I think every team is looking at some sort of roster crunch. Of course the real bad teams might view our borderline players as better than their 39 or 40th players, but I would not claim our bottom of the 40 man roster is much better than average.

 

Ideally, we'd make a couple 3 for 1 trades, which would allow us to protect everyone with a significant chance of being Rule 5 selected or claimed, if we DFA them as well as having room for a few FAs and players like Locastro- as there may be more out there, like him, to be plucked from the waiver wire.

 

Waiver deals are some of Bloom's better deals (Arroyo, Valdez, Shaw, Iggy...)

 

[moonslav59]

35 Players on Our 40 Man Roster (No ERod/ Yes JD- for now)

(33without Perez & Richards)

 

Listed in order of 40 man roster seniority...

Vaz

Bogey

Barnes

Sale

Devers

JD

Brasier

Eovaldi

Taylor

DHern

Dalbec

Arauz

Perez (team option likely to be declined)

Plawecki

Verdugo

Valdez

Pivetta (Wow! #17 in roster seniority and acquired last summer!)

Arroyo

Houck

Bazardo

Mata

Groome

Wong

Seabold

Rosario

Potts

Whitlock

Renfroe

Kike

Richards (team option likely declined)

Sawamura

R Hernandez

Duran

Davis

Locastro

 

Red= borderline DFA/Trade candidates

Blue= options

 

Edited November 7, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I have made the point that we have way fewer slots to fill, this winter vs last, and we have Rule 5 players to add and maybe Casas and Seabold adding something to the 2022 26 man roster, but I can't see us signing or trading for less than 3-4 significant players to the 26. Then, we may also add some minor league depth that requires 40 man roster inclusion.

 

Soxprospects.com has the Sox adding 7 players, including 4 pitchers (with ERod as one), a 2b, a DH, and a bench infielder. Of course, they also have 28 spots on the 26 man roster since they are unsure of how to handle Houck and Whitlock….

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com has the Sox adding 7 players, including 4 pitchers (with ERod as one), a 2b, a DH, and a bench infielder. Of course, they also have 28 spots on the 26 man roster since they are unsure of how to handle Houck and Whitlock….

 

I think we acquire 5-7 players that need placement on the 40 man roster. Add 3-6 Rule 5's and someone has to go.

 

Multiple someones.

[notin]

I think we acquire 5-7 players that need placement on the 40 man roster. Add 3-6 Rule 5's and someone has to go.

 

Multiple someones.

 

 

The biggest surprise will be if one of them isn’t Hudson Potts.

We assume Rosario is at risk, and he probably is. But I think one unmentioned candidate is Austin Davis…

[moonslav59]

The biggest surprise will be if one of them isn’t Hudson Potts.

We assume Rosario is at risk, and he probably is. But I think one unmentioned candidate is Austin Davis…

 

I had Davis highlighted in red, along with Rosario, Arauz, Locastro & Plawecki.

[notin]

I had Davis highlighted in red, along with Rosario, Arauz, Locastro & Plawecki.

 

That’s fair.

 

The idea of claiming Locastro only to release him shortly after is not exactly new in MLB.

 

Plawecki is an interesting case. He probably gets offered arbitration, but if he doesn’t it could be because of the money or because of the roster space

[Nick]

Per MLB Traderumors

 

J.D. Martinez Does Not Opt Out Of Contract With Red Sox

 

J.D. Martinez has declined to exercise the opt-out provision in his contract and will therefore remain with the Red Sox for 2022, as reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network. His original five-year deal with the club prior to the 2018 season contained three opt-outs: after the second, third and fourth years of the deal. Martinez has now declined to opt out for a third consecutive year and will play out the final season of the contract on a salary of $19.35MM

 

Sorry if this has been posted already.......few media people were wrong....I still want Schwarber...

[Nick]

Red Sox Decline Options On Martin Perez, Garrett Richards

 

The Red Sox have declined their $6MM club option on left-hander Martin Perez, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. He will instead receive a $500K buyout and head into free agency. Right-hander Garrett Richards will also have his $10MM option declined, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He gets a $1.5MM buyout on his way into the free agent pool.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Decline Options On Martin Perez, Garrett Richards

 

The Red Sox have declined their $6MM club option on left-hander Martin Perez, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. He will instead receive a $500K buyout and head into free agency. Right-hander Garrett Richards will also have his $10MM option declined, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He gets a $1.5MM buyout on his way into the free agent pool.

 

As expected. Good choice.

[moonslav59]

Per MLB Traderumors

 

J.D. Martinez Does Not Opt Out Of Contract With Red Sox

 

J.D. Martinez has declined to exercise the opt-out provision in his contract and will therefore remain with the Red Sox for 2022, as reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network. His original five-year deal with the club prior to the 2018 season contained three opt-outs: after the second, third and fourth years of the deal. Martinez has now declined to opt out for a third consecutive year and will play out the final season of the contract on a salary of $19.35MM

 

Sorry if this has been posted already.......few media people were wrong....I still want Schwarber...

 

Not sure if we can trade JD with cash and then sign Schwarber, and if this is even worth considering.

[Old Red]

Not sure if we can trade JD with cash and then sign Schwarber, and if this is even worth considering.

 

You’ve been talking about trading JD for weeks now. I would rather have JD for one more year than Fred Flintstone Schwaber. Schwaber can sign elsewhere, and the Sox can spend more to upgrade the pitching. Sorry for those that wanted to sign Schwaber to a lifetime contract, which was sheer lunessey.

[notin]

You’ve been talking about trading JD for weeks now. I would rather have JD for one more year than Fred Flintstone Schwaber. Schwaber can sign elsewhere, and the Sox can spend more to upgrade the pitching. Sorry for those that wanted to sign Schwaber to a lifetime contract, which was sheer lunessey.

 

Also, sheer lunacy