A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox did win a ring with that outfield. It is reasonable and understandable to want them . It is also reasonable to realize that nothing lasts forever. Things change.

 

One thing that doesn't is the importance of good defense to win titles or at least go deep in the postseason. That unit contributed great defense to a championship.

[moonslav59]

One thing that doesn't is the importance of good defense to win titles or at least go deep in the postseason. That unit contributed great defense to a championship.

 

It sure did! Especially, the OF. Man, they were fun to watch.

 

I like watching Kike in CF and Renfroe nailing base-runners, but the rest of the OF D is nothing special. (Verdugo is fine.)

[oldtimer]

Back to the subject of changes needed for 2022, I see the Rays and Jays are already formidable teams and will no doubt make moves to improve still more. The Yankees will try to throw money at their problems, leaving no choice for the Sox but to make significant moves for 2022.

 

Moon has already suggested the addition of a #2 and #5 starter to back up Eovaldi, Sale and Pivetta. That assumes we may make a QO to E-Rod but then trade him. Also it assumes we will have one or more of Houck, Seabold and Whitlock fill in when the inevitable injuries occur. I agree with Moon on this line of improving the team.

 

In the case of relief pitching, we have Taylor, D-Hern, Swamamura and Whitlock who I would keep but would be willing to trade any of the rest for a solid closer and setup man. That includes Barnes, Brasier, Ottavino, Richards and Robles. Perhaps we keep some of those, keep some and fill in from our minors program.

 

Catching is a weakness for us with Vaz not performing all that well. It is difficult to find quality catchers so I would expect the cost in salary and/or prospects to be high.

 

Our infield has significant defensive issues. Devers is not improving and Dalbec has looked awkward at first. Bogie has range issues. There are drawbacks to any moves which have been identified and discussed. We need to improve the defense while no sacrificing our offense. I have been around and around of this. Could we acquire Trevor Story, Move Bofie to third, Devers to first and bring Kike in to play 2nd? Assuming Dever's could play first adequately, it would be a very competitive infield but Story wouldn't come cheaply.

 

I happy with Verdugo in Left field, Renfroe has defensive lapses but his arm is very good and his hitting adequate. That would lead us to finding a first rate defensive CF with a decent bat.

 

We shouldn't try to keep 2 costly DH who are primarily limited defensively. JDM is still good but I would trade him if he doesn't opt out in favor of the younger and equally good Schwaber

 

My suggestions require the following additions:

1. #2 and #5 Starters

2. Closer and solid setup man

3. Primary catcher

4. Shortstop (here I suggest Story)

5. Quality defensive CF with a satisfactory bat.

6. Keep Schwaber as our DH and let JDM opt oit or trade him

 

Pretty big wish list with the hope of becoming a leader in the AL East

[moonslav59]

Back to the subject of changes needed for 2022, I see the Rays and Jays are already formidable teams and will no doubt make moves to improve still more. The Yankees will try to throw money at their problems, leaving no choice for the Sox but to make significant moves for 2022.

 

Moon has already suggested the addition of a #2 and #5 starter to back up Eovaldi, Sale and Pivetta. That assumes we may make a QO to E-Rod but then trade him. Also it assumes we will have one or more of Houck, Seabold and Whitlock fill in when the inevitable injuries occur. I agree with Moon on this line of improving the team.

 

In the case of relief pitching, we have Taylor, D-Hern, Swamamura and Whitlock who I would keep but would be willing to trade any of the rest for a solid closer and setup man. That includes Barnes, Brasier, Ottavino, Richards and Robles. Perhaps we keep some of those, keep some and fill in from our minors program.

 

Catching is a weakness for us with Vaz not performing all that well. It is difficult to find quality catchers so I would expect the cost in salary and/or prospects to be high.

 

Our infield has significant defensive issues. Devers is not improving and Dalbec has looked awkward at first. Bogie has range issues. There are drawbacks to any moves which have been identified and discussed. We need to improve the defense while no sacrificing our offense. I have been around and around of this. Could we acquire Trevor Story, Move Bofie to third, Devers to first and bring Kike in to play 2nd? Assuming Dever's could play first adequately, it would be a very competitive infield but Story wouldn't come cheaply.

 

I happy with Verdugo in Left field, Renfroe has defensive lapses but his arm is very good and his hitting adequate. That would lead us to finding a first rate defensive CF with a decent bat.

 

We shouldn't try to keep 2 costly DH who are primarily limited defensively. JDM is still good but I would trade him if he doesn't opt out in favor of the younger and equally good Schwaber

 

My suggestions require the following additions:

1. #2 and #5 Starters

2. Closer and solid setup man

3. Primary catcher

4. Shortstop (here I suggest Story)

5. Quality defensive CF with a satisfactory bat.

6. Keep Schwaber as our DH and let JDM opt oit or trade him

 

Pretty big wish list with the hope of becoming a leader in the AL East

 

Kike is back for 2022, so no CF'er is needed, just yet/ I think we go with Arroyo at 2B and maybe try to lure Iggy back as a utility man.

 

I do think we might acquire a #2 and #5, but I hate going after 5's. I'd try for a 3 or 4 and move Pivetta to 5.

 

Ideally, we get a 1 & 3, but maybe a 2 & 3 is all we can afford.

 

BTW, Toronto has some choice to make. Semien was just a one year deal.

 

Robbie Ray is a FA, too.

[mvp 78]

Kike is back for 2022, so no CF'er is needed, just yet/ I think we go with Arroyo at 2B and maybe try to lure Iggy back as a utility man.

 

I do think we might acquire a #2 and #5, but I hate going after 5's. I'd try for a 3 or 4 and move Pivetta to 5.

 

Ideally, we get a 1 & 3, but maybe a 2 & 3 is all we can afford.

 

BTW, Toronto has some choice to make. Semien was just a one year deal.

 

Robbie Ray is a FA, too.

 

Gammons wrote today that he believes Semien is a target for the Sox.

[notin]

Gammons wrote today that he believes Semien is a target for the Sox.

 

He apparently was last year as well, but Boston’s interest in Hernandez (which he learned about through his agent, who also represents Kike) made him pursue other avenues…

[harmony]

Gammons wrote today that he believes Semien is a target for the Sox.

Is Peter Gammons a reliable unbiased source?

[moonslav59]

Gammons wrote today that he believes Semien is a target for the Sox.

 

He would be a major score, but I'd still prefer spending on pitching.

 

We could play Semien at 2B and trade Arroyo or keep him as utility, of have Semien play SS, and trade Bogey.

 

[notin]

Kike is back for 2022, so no CF'er is needed, just yet/ I think we go with Arroyo at 2B and maybe try to lure Iggy back as a utility man.

 

I do think we might acquire a #2 and #5, but I hate going after 5's. I'd try for a 3 or 4 and move Pivetta to 5.

 

Ideally, we get a 1 & 3, but maybe a 2 & 3 is all we can afford.

 

BTW, Toronto has some choice to make. Semien was just a one year deal.

 

Robbie Ray is a FA, too.

 

The pitcher enumerations are too broad and confusing. Most people’s idea of the difference between a #3 and a #2 probably differ, possibly by a lot.

 

We could use two good starting pitchers. Sort out the numbers later.

 

(Also if Whitlock moves to the rotation, the Sox potentially need just one starter.)

[notin]

Is Peter Gammons a reliable unbiased source?

 

Easily as much of one as any other MLB. pundit. Except George King, who’s flat out pathetic…

[moonslav59]

The pitcher enumerations are too broad and confusing. Most people’s idea of the difference between a #3 and a #2 probably differ, possibly by a lot.

 

We could use two good starting pitchers. Sort out the numbers later.

 

(Also if Whitlock moves to the rotation, the Sox potentially need just one starter.)

 

Agreed. My idea of a number 1 is a top 30 pitcher, #2, 31-60, #3, 61-90...

 

I like Whitlock as our long RP'er and Houck as the closer for 2022.

 

Maybe Barnes can be a great 8th inning guy, again.

[notin]

Agreed. My idea of a number 1 is a top 30 pitcher, #2, 31-60, #3, 61-90...

 

I like Whitlock as our long RP'er and Houck as the closer for 2022.

 

Maybe Barnes can be a great 8th inning guy, again.

 

I’d like Houck and Whitlock (and Barnes and Taylor) in the bullpen as well. But Bloom blatantly disregards my recommendations, that elitist &$&$/!

[moonslav59]

I’d like Houck and Whitlock (and Barnes and Taylor) in the bullpen as well. But Bloom blatantly disregards my recommendations, that elitist &$&$/!

 

It’s cheaper to find pen additions, so maybe that will tilt the decision to us one as a starter.

 

If the budget is limited, I might agree.

[moonslav59]

I really try my hardest to not let 1 game or one week or month change my mind about a certain player or team strategy, but I am leaning towards these suggestion for winter moves and upgrades.

 

I'm not going to get into the financial details, but my suggestions should not put us way over the current lux tax structure.

 

2022 Sox

 

Catcher: lose Vaz's $7M option somehow. Acquire a defensive catcher known to do well with relationships with pitchers.

1B: I know the low cost Dalbec looks like a no-brainer, and Casas may make it to the bigs in 2022, but I'm thinking maybe it's time to move Devers to 1B. I'm okay with working hard with him over the winter and giving him one more year at 3B, so as of now, I'm going with Dalbec/Casas at 1B in 2022.

2B: I like Arroyo and would like to see us re-sign Iggy as the utility infielder and 2Bman.

3B: Devers for one last chance at 3B.

SS: Look to trade Bogey but don't give him away. Then, sign whoever we think is the best defender at SS from Baez, Semien, Story but probably not Correa, as he may cost too much. (Not that these guys will come cheap, but saving money on Bogey will help off set this signing.)

LF: Verdugo as a platoon. I'd play renfroe in LF vs LHPs and find a good defensive RF'er who hits righties well (see RF).

CF: Kike FULL TIME! (This is my strongest held belief.)

RF: Renfroe and a better defender who hits RHPs very well. (I do not think Duran is a good enough defender to fill this role or the back-up CF role. He might be our best trade bait.)

DH: I'd look to trade JD, pay part of his salary and re-sign Schwarber.

 

Pitching, pitching, PITCHING!

Hopefully replacing JD with Schwarber and adding a SS won't break the bank, because I'd like to see major improvements to the pitching staff. Trading Bogey, JD and maybe Duran or one from Dalbec/Casas could land us cost-effective pitchers, but I have no idea who we might get for any of these players.

 

The good thing about the change over needed for 2022 is that the players we lose or have options on were not major pluses to this year's team.

 

ERod pitched well in the second half, and Ottavino put up some nice OPS Agaisnt numbers, but neither will be sorely missed. Their slots will need to be filled, however, as will the other staring rotation slot held by Perz/Richards/Houck.

 

The ERod QO choice may be a closer call than many think it is, but one year deals are often overpays due to the lesser risk. For argument's sake, let's say we do not offer him a QO or he refuses it, and his slot is open.

We say no to the Perez and Richards options.

We'll count Ottavino and Robles, who will be FAs, as goners.

 

The Houck-Whitlock 2022 role debate will take up much of the winter talk, here and across Sox Nation. IMO, Houck looks better suited for the pen- maybe as a very cheap closer. Whitlock looks more like a starter, and good starters are more expensive than good RP'ers, so I can see the argument for starting him, next year. Whatever choice is made will dictate a lot about who we target for upgrades to the staff. For argument's sake, I'm going to place both in the pen, just for this scenario.

 

That leaves this as a foundation:

 

(Note: I'm always for adding SP'er to the top 1 or 2 slots not looking for "good 5th starters," but I realize the budget doesn't always allow this.)

 

SP1. _____________ (Maybe acquire an aging stud, so the deal is shorter)

SP2. Sale

SP3. Eovaldi

SP4. _____________ (I'd like to see a solid #3 type here)

SP5. Pivetta

SP6. Seabold

(___. Crawford/Winckowski/ German/ Espinal/ Bello/Groome/Murphy/Santos)

 

RP1. Houck

RP2. Whitlock

RP3. ______

RP4. Barnes

RP5. Taylor

RP6. DHern

RP7. Sawamura

RP8. Brasier/Davis

(Valdez/ Bazardo/Feltman/Ort/Schreiber or converted SP'er)

 

That's basically 3-4 pitchers with one being a depth signing.

 

I think we can get this done without breaking the bank, but maybe Henry will okay breaking the bank, this winter.

 

 

 

[notin]

I don’t see the point in getting an “aging stud” to pitch nothing but the high-priced declining years that make long term deals so problematic.

 

I’d rather see the Sox add Stroman for 5 or 6 years as opposed to Scherzer for 3…

[mvp 78]

I don’t see the point in getting an “aging stud” to pitch nothing but the high-priced declining years that make long term deals so problematic.

 

I’d rather see the Sox add Stroman for 5 or 6 years as opposed to Scherzer for 3…

 

Yes.

[notin]

I would think the Sox likely add just one starter.

 

In the lineup, they could address the CF/2b situation, depending on where Kike plays. Arroyo is simply not a solution based on straight up durability.

 

LF is another question mark. Verdugo full time? Bring back Schwarber? Go with Duran? Does a Verdugo/Renfroe platoon make sense in RF?

 

At least one RP is essential.

 

If they make a trade, the bait might include Bogaerts (whom I consider unlikely, of course I felt that way about Benintendi, too), Duran/Verdugo, D Hernandez (enticing fastball, pitiful control) and possibly Barnes.

 

The simplest plan is sign Semien and a RP (R Iglesias? Y Garcia? A Bradley? M Givens?) and Semien (2b) to start. And the surplus LF maybe dealt for a pitcher. BTV proposes equivalent pitchers like Zach Plesac (for Duran) or Triston McKenzie (for Verdugo). If Cleveland was interested, Plesac has been the better pitcher and is my preferred target…

[Bellhorn04]

2022 Sox

 

Catcher: lose Vaz's $7M option somehow. Acquire a defensive catcher known to do well with relationships with pitchers.

 

Well, I hate to get hung up on the CERA thing (LOL), but look at these numbers:

 

Whitlock with Vaz

62.2 IP

1.58 ERA

.590 OPS

 

Houck with Vaz

50.1 IP

1.79 ERA

.551 OPS

 

We all agree that Whitlock and Houck are keys to our 2022 success.

 

If Vaz is not good with pitchers, how in the heck can these 2 young pitchers put up such amazing numbers with him?

 

You kind of have to answer that question before giving Vaz the boot.

[Bellhorn04]

I would think the Sox likely add just one starter.

 

In the lineup, they could address the CF/2b situation, depending on where Kike plays. Arroyo is simply not a solution based on straight up durability.

 

LF is another question mark. Verdugo full time? Bring back Schwarber? Go with Duran? Does a Verdugo/Renfroe platoon make sense in RF?

 

At least one RP is essential.

 

If they make a trade, the bait might include Bogaerts (whom I consider unlikely, of course I felt that way about Benintendi, too), Duran/Verdugo, D Hernandez (enticing fastball, pitiful control) and possibly Barnes.

 

The simplest plan is sign Semien and a RP (R Iglesias? Y Garcia? A Bradley? M Givens?) and Semien (2b) to start. And the surplus LF maybe dealt for a pitcher. BTV proposes equivalent pitchers like Zach Plesac (for Duran) or Triston McKenzie (for Verdugo). If Cleveland was interested, Plesac has been the better pitcher and is my preferred target…

 

Any thoughts on the Vazquez option?

[notin]

Any thoughts on the Vazquez option?

 

 

Chances of it being exercised fall between 99% and 101%….

[moonslav59]

Well, I hate to get hung up on the CERA thing (LOL), but look at these numbers:

 

Whitlock with Vaz

62.2 IP

1.58 ERA

.590 OPS

 

Houck with Vaz

50.1 IP

1.79 ERA

.551 OPS

 

We all agree that Whitlock and Houck are keys to our 2022 success.

 

If Vaz is not good with pitchers, how in the heck can these 2 young pitchers put up such amazing numbers with him?

 

You kind of have to answer that question before giving Vaz the boot.

 

If they both stay in the pen, we might be talking about 150 innings, total.

 

Maybe Pina or whoever we get can do better than Plawecki with these two, and keep doing better with Eovaldi and Pivetta.

[moonslav59]

Chances of it being exercised fall between 99% and 101%….

 

... only to possibly be traded.

[moonslav59]

I don’t see the point in getting an “aging stud” to pitch nothing but the high-priced declining years that make long term deals so problematic.

 

I’d rather see the Sox add Stroman for 5 or 6 years as opposed to Scherzer for 3…

 

Is Stroman really the type of guy you go David Price on?

 

I'm not saying he'll get $30M x 7, but he'll be the highest paid FA pitcher we've signed, after Price, since Lackey. He might demand 6-7, but if we can get hi m for 4-5, I'd feel better.

 

If it's $85M/3 for Scherzer vs $170M/6 for Stroman, I'd take Scherzer.

 

What about Robbie Ray?

[moonslav59]

I don’t see the point in getting an “aging stud” to pitch nothing but the high-priced declining years that make long term deals so problematic.

 

I’d rather see the Sox add Stroman for 5 or 6 years as opposed to Scherzer for 3…

 

Scherzer's declining years have blown other prime pitchers away.

[notin]

Scherzer's declining years have blown other prime pitchers away.

 

Every year he gets more likely to have a significant and sudden drop off…

[notin]

Is Stroman really the type of guy you go David Price on?

 

I'm not saying he'll get $30M x 7, but he'll be the highest paid FA pitcher we've signed, after Price, since Lackey. He might demand 6-7, but if we can get hi m for 4-5, I'd feel better.

 

If it's $85M/3 for Scherzer vs $170M/6 for Stroman, I'd take Scherzer.

 

What about Robbie Ray?

 

Ray will get a QO.

 

I wouldn’t give Stroman a Price contract, but a Lackey deal seems reasonable…

[Bellhorn04]

If they both stay in the pen, we might be talking about 150 innings, total.

 

And as you know, we're strongly expecting at least one of them to be in the rotation.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But Stroman's too short to earn a longterm deal. His body is bound to break down, and he's sure to join Mookie at the retirement home, cursing together at the TV in the community room because MLB channel is blacking out the local nine.

[Bellhorn04]

But Stroman's too short to earn a longterm deal. His body is bound to break down, and he's sure to join Mookie at the retirement home, cursing together at the TV in the community room because MLB channel is blacking out the local nine.

 

Yes, Mookie's height is the real reason they let him go.

[notin]

But Stroman's too short to earn a longterm deal. His body is bound to break down, and he's sure to join Mookie at the retirement home, cursing together at the TV in the community room because MLB channel is blacking out the local nine.

 

… and that’s why Stroman won’t get a 12 year deal….