A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

Hard to know, if that is why he enjoys his niche.

 

I know one reason he stayed was for family.

 

And getting partial ownership of the club.

 

He may have a small budget, but he did quite well for himself financially…

[Nick]

Soooo, so far we've had 3 hits against the pushover Orioles.

 

These guys run up scores when things go their way......when things get tight, butt cheeks close.

 

We think we need to pay $30M to Devers.

We think we need to give Xander a raise on his current $20M salary.

We think we should give $8M starting pitcher a $18M contract even though he's having a mediocre year. Oh don't forget, his peripherals look better than reality.

We think we should pick up the $10M option on a starting pitcher that failed. We think he can be a pretty good reliever. All because we don't want to pay the $1.5M option fee we'll be stuck with...........Moon you sound like my ex-wife. Spend $10M so we don't lose $1.5M.

Rays just laugh, laugh and laugh at us. According to many here, we need to spend $240M to be competitive. Rays just laugh, laugh, laugh.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Soooo, so far we've had 3 hits against the pushover Orioles.

 

These guys run up scores when things go their way......when things get tight, butt cheeks close.

 

We think we need to pay $30M to Devers.

We think we need to give Xander a raise on his current $20M salary.

We think we should give $8M starting pitcher a $18M contract even though he's having a mediocre year. Oh don't forget, his peripherals look better than reality.

We think we should pick up the $10M option on a starting pitcher that failed. We think he can be a pretty good reliever. All because we don't want to pay the $1.5M option fee we'll be stuck with...........Moon you sound like my ex-wife. Spend $10M so we don't lose $1.5M.

Rays just laugh, laugh and laugh at us. According to many here, we need to spend $240M to be competitive. Rays just laugh, laugh, laugh.

 

I never said bring back Richards. I just pointed out the option makes it more like $8.5M than $10M.

 

I have been leaning towards offering the QO to ERod, but it is close, and it's a one year deal. He may say no, and we gain a pick and slot money.

 

The choice to keep Richards and ERod does not need to be made now.

 

When did I say give Bogey a raise?

 

I'm for extending Devers, yes, but maybe not keeping him at 3B.

 

I'm for trading Vaz, and if there are no takers, decline his $7M option.

 

I'm for trading JD, so we can sign Schwarber.

 

I'm for improving the D, but it won't be easy without major trades or realignments.

 

I'm for spending almost every penny on SP'ing.

[moonslav59]

Going by just a very simple look at our pitching staff, something jumps out at me. Of our top 12 IP pitchers (over 40 IP), the worst 4 ERAs are our 2, 3, 4, and 5 IP leaders- all starters.

4.93 ERod 152 IP (96 ERA+)

4.52 Pivetta 149 IP (104)

4.65 Richards 134 IP (102 got here in relief)

4.78 Perez 113 IP (99)

 

This is not all that uncommon, as RP'er typically have lower ERA for a number of reasons, but it points to the area we need the most focus on over the winter.

 

The FA options do not look all that great, and many of the best are way past prime. Maybe a short-term post prime stud can get us to the promise land without breaking the long term bank.

 

Who knows?

[Nick]

I never said bring back Richards. I just pointed out the option makes it more like $8.5M than $10M.

 

I have been leaning towards offering the QO to ERod, but it is close, and it's a one year deal. He may say no, and we gain a pick and slot money.

 

The choice to keep Richards and ERod does not need to be made now.

 

When did I say give Bogey a raise?

 

I'm for extending Devers, yes, but maybe not keeping him at 3B.

 

I'm for trading Vaz, and if there are no takers, decline his $7M option.

 

I'm for trading JD, so we can sign Schwarber.

 

I'm for improving the D, but it won't be easy without major trades or realignments.

 

I'm for spending almost every penny on SP'ing.

 

I'm only attributing Richards to you and you have a valid point. I think I agree with you on majority of issues.

[moonslav59]

Best OPS Against by the 15 pitchers with over 165 PAs against:

 

.638 Whitlock

.640 Barnes

.644 Houck

.662 Taylor

 

.690 DHern

.697 Ottavino

.700 Valdez

.701 Eovaldi

 

.730 Sale

.734 Pivetta

 

.772 Sawamura

.773 ERod

 

.824 Richards (.594 as a RP'er in 96 PAs against)

.842 Perez

 

.942 Andriese

 

Red= no guaranteed contract with Sox, next year.

 

Nice to see our top 3 are some of our youngest pitchers and all have many years of team control.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Best OPS Against by the 15 pitchers with over 165 PAs against:

 

.638 Whitlock

.640 Barnes

.644 Houck

.662 Taylor

 

.690 DHern

.697 Ottavino

.700 Valdez

.701 Eovaldi

 

.730 Sale

.734 Pivetta

 

.772 Sawamura

.773 ERod

 

.824 Richards (.594 as a RP'er in 96 PAs against)

.842 Perez

 

.942 Andriese

 

Red= no guaranteed contract with Sox, next year.

 

Nice to see our top 3 are some of our youngest pitchers and all have many years of team control.

 

 

Yes, and their numbers are especially good when throwing to Vazquez.

 

(Finally something I can have fun with.)

[moonslav59]

Yes, and their numbers are especially good when throwing to Vazquez.

 

(Finally something I can have fun with.)

 

The 10 returning pitchers plus maybe Seabold offer a pretty nice base, but we need some serious upgrades at the top of the rotation.

 

Sale might be a solid #2, although I still have hopes he returns to form.

 

Eovaldi would be one of the leagues best #3's, and Pivetta better than most #5's, so we really need an ace or solid #2 type.

 

I much prefer having Houck and Whitlock in the pen, so that means getting a number 4 is important, too. I am usually firmly against trying to strengthen a rotation by "upgrading" at 4 and 5 slots, but with funds possibly being tight, getting an ace and a #4 might be the best we can hope for. Maybe getting two number 2's would work better.

 

I like Seabold a lot, but he should be viewed as our 6th starter, at best.

[oldtimer]

I never said bring back Richards. I just pointed out the option makes it more like $8.5M than $10M.

 

I have been leaning towards offering the QO to ERod, but it is close, and it's a one year deal. He may say no, and we gain a pick and slot money.

 

The choice to keep Richards and ERod does not need to be made now.

 

When did I say give Bogey a raise?

 

I'm for extending Devers, yes, but maybe not keeping him at 3B.

 

I'm for trading Vaz, and if there are no takers, decline his $7M option.

 

I'm for trading JD, so we can sign Schwarber.

 

I'm for improving the D, but it won't be easy without major trades or realignments.

 

I'm for spending almost every penny on SP'ing.

 

I agree that starting pitching needs to be strengthened but that is not easy to do in a competitive market. There is also an issue with our ability to score with the last 4 games capped at 3 runs. I am for really considering moving several players. Vaz and JDM are two of those and for different reasons. Better defense, better base running and timely hitting have to be considered. It's worth asking how much value does Devers represent. Same question with Dalbec.

[moonslav59]

I agree that starting pitching needs to be strengthened but that is not easy to do in a competitive market. There is also an issue with our ability to score with the last 4 games capped at 3 runs. I am for really considering moving several players. Vaz and JDM are two of those and for different reasons. Better defense, better base running and timely hitting have to be considered. It's worth asking how much value does Devers represent. Same question with Dalbec.

 

I just don't think we can spend much on offense. If we don't pay Vaz $7M and trade JD paying $4M of his deal, we could sign Schwarber for $15M and be pretty close to even, but without a catcher.

 

Replacing JD with Schwarber does nothing for our D, but getting a great defensive catcher can be a nice start.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I just don't think we can spend much on offense. If we don't pay Vaz $7M and trade JD paying $4M of his deal, we could sign Schwarber for $15M and be pretty close to even, but without a catcher.

 

Replacing JD with Schwarber does nothing for our D, but getting a great defensive catcher can be a nice start.

 

 

Replacing Vazquez is not going to lower the BABip against.

[mvp 78]

I just don't think we can spend much on offense. If we don't pay Vaz $7M and trade JD paying $4M of his deal, we could sign Schwarber for $15M and be pretty close to even, but without a catcher.

 

Replacing JD with Schwarber does nothing for our D, but getting a great defensive catcher can be a nice start.

 

 

Keep Xander at SS. Hope Casas is ready ASAP. Sign Manny Pina. Have someone work with Devers all offseason. Platoon Verdugo/Renfroe. Bring back JBJ and put him in RF.

[moonslav59]

Replacing Vazquez is not going to lower the BABip against.

 

Not by much, anyway, if at all, but no other position has an easy defensive upgrade without seriously affecting the offense of psyche of a player (like moving Bogey to 3B or 2B).

 

As much as I hate to say it, maybe the defense needs to be upgrade after 2022, unless Bloom gets very bold, this winter.

[moonslav59]

Keep Xander at SS. Hope Casas is ready ASAP. Sign Manny Pina. Have someone work with Devers all offseason. Platoon Verdugo/Renfroe. Bring back JBJ and put him in RF.

 

JBJ's defense has slipped. There are tons of better and cheaper options for an all glove- no hit OF'er.

 

I do think a Verdugo-Renfroe platoon in LF would help, assuming we get a RF'er who can defend, but how do we do that without taking away resources from upgrading the staff?

[mvp 78]

JBJ's defense has slipped. There are tons of better and cheaper options for an all glove- no hit OF'er.

 

I do think a Verdugo-Renfroe platoon in LF would help, assuming we get a RF'er who can defend, but how do we do that without taking away resources from upgrading the staff?

 

I think JBJ's contract next year should be pretty cheap. I think JBJ would be a better fit in RF than Marisnick. I don't see other options that are all that interesting. Maybe they are happy with Renfroe in RF? I like his arm, but his errors leave a lot to be desired.

[notin]

Keep Xander at SS. Hope Casas is ready ASAP. Sign Manny Pina. Have someone work with Devers all offseason. Platoon Verdugo/Renfroe. Bring back JBJ and put him in RF.

 

If JBJ is in RF, where is the Renfroe/Verdugo platoon? LF or CF? Or was that a typo?

[mvp 78]

And I'm confused about JBJ's defense slipping.

 

According to UZR/150, he's doing just fine:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackie-bradley-jr/12984/stats?position=OF

 

CF 12.1 (highest since 2014)

RF 30.9

LF 22.9

 

All those numbers seem good? Where's the slippage?

[mvp 78]

If JBJ is in RF, where is the Renfroe/Verdugo platoon? LF or CF? Or was that a typo?

 

Renfroe/Verdugo in LF.

[moonslav59]

I think JBJ's contract next year should be pretty cheap. I think JBJ would be a better fit in RF than Marisnick. I don't see other options that are all that interesting. Maybe they are happy with Renfroe in RF? I like his arm, but his errors leave a lot to be desired.

 

He signed a 2 year deal.

[mvp 78]

He signed a 2 year deal.

 

I thought it was a team option. It's a player option.

 

Maybe the Brewers would eat half his salary in a deal?

[moonslav59]

And I'm confused about JBJ's defense slipping.

 

According to UZR/150, he's doing just fine:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackie-bradley-jr/12984/stats?position=OF

 

CF 12.1 (highest since 2014)

RF 30.9

LF 22.9

 

All those numbers seem good? Where's the slippage?

 

Going by one season's numbers goes against everything fangraphs says about UZR/150, especially with OF'ers, who get so few chances.

 

JBJ only had 96 innings in RF, this year and will be a year older, next season and still under contract with the Brewers at a hefty price.

 

He showed serious decline from 2018-2020. I would not put too much stock into one season's numbers.

[moonslav59]

I thought it was a team option. It's a player option.

 

Maybe the Brewers would eat half his salary in a deal?

 

The continued love for aging ex Sox players is a disease.

 

Get over JBJ. I'd rather have Marisnik at $1.5M, for God's sake.

[notin]

Keep Xander at SS. Hope Casas is ready ASAP. Sign Manny Pina. Have someone work with Devers all offseason. Platoon Verdugo/Renfroe. Bring back JBJ and put him in RF.

 

Would you deal Duran and D Hernandez to the Brewers for Hader and Bradley?

 

BTV only likes it if Milwaukee also includes about $8mill or possibly Adrian Houser or one of a few minor leaguers.

 

If I ran the Brewers, I would very much do this deal…

[notin]

Going by one season's numbers goes against everything fangraphs says about UZR/150, especially with OF'ers, who get so few chances.

 

JBJ only had 96 innings in RF, this year and will be a year older, next season and still under contract with the Brewers at a hefty price.

 

He showed serious decline from 2018-2020. I would not put too much stock into one season's numbers.

 

 

You could put JBJ on crutches and he’d still defend CF better than Duran or Verdugo…

[moonslav59]

You could put JBJ on crutches and he’d still defend CF better than Duran or Verdugo…

 

True, and I was almost hands-down JBJ's biggest fans when he was here, but defensive OF'er are a dime a dozen, and some hit better than he does.

[mvp 78]

The continued love for aging ex Sox players is a disease.

 

Get over JBJ. I'd rather have Marisnik at $1.5M, for God's sake.

 

Marisnick has not been good this year. I'd rather have JBJ at $4M. Again, JBJ isn't a savior. He'd just help shore up the defense that you've been clamoring for.

[notin]

True, and I was almost hands-down JBJ's biggest fans when he was here, but defensive OF'er are a dime a dozen, and some hit better than he does.

 

But none of them carry the PR impact.

 

Bringing back Bradley is a headline. Bringing in Marisnick is a one line blurb in a mass transaction article on MLBTR…

[mvp 78]

Going by one season's numbers goes against everything fangraphs says about UZR/150, especially with OF'ers, who get so few chances.

 

JBJ only had 96 innings in RF, this year and will be a year older, next season and still under contract with the Brewers at a hefty price.

 

He showed serious decline from 2018-2020. I would not put too much stock into one season's numbers.

 

I asked for proof and wasn't given any. For all OF positions combined, this season was his second best year of UZR/150.

[notin]

I asked for proof and wasn't given any. For all OF positions combined, this season was his second best year of UZR/150.

 

It is possible his UZR in Boston was deflated by the All World Gold Glove guy in RF taking chances from him for a few years. He didn’t have that in Milwaukee.

 

Still I’d take Bradley back. He’s overpriced, but it is just one season. Bat him 9th in a lineup that could easily have 8 hitters more than picking up the slack for his cold streaks.

 

Count me in. Especially if the Sox can pry Hader in this deal and fill two gaping holes…

[moonslav59]

I asked for proof and wasn't given any. For all OF positions combined, this season was his second best year of UZR/150.

 

I am not disputing 2021's numbers. He is in decline, and this was a blip.

 

Why is JBJ a better choice than dozens of other great defenders?