A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

How much does the catcher have to do with that bloated BABip we keep hearing about?

 

Well he doesn’t do anything to stop it, now does he?

[moonslav59]

Shocking that Vaz is even still with us! Somebody in the org isn't reading the data right, I guess...

 

He's been cheap, until 2022. He's hit better than 75% of catchers.

 

He frames and throws well.

 

He blocks pitches well.

 

All this outweighs the other stuff. Same as Bogey at SS.

 

You guys act like I've been saying he should be benched or DFA'd.

 

I've never even said he should play less.

 

Stawmen.

[moonslav59]

Just think at how much better Xander's range would be if the Sox had a new catcher! Renfroe would have zero errors if it wasn't for that dastardly VAZ! Devers' throwing issues? VAZ!!!!!

 

Now, you are catching on.

[Bellhorn04]

He's been cheap, until 2022. He's hit better than 75% of catchers.

 

He frames and throws well.

 

He blocks pitches well.

 

All this outweighs the other stuff. Same as Bogey at SS.

 

You guys act like I've been saying he should be benched or DFA'd.

 

I've never even said he should play less.

 

Stawmen.

 

I don't think it's a straw man to say your adverse opinion of him and desire to replace him has a lot to do with CERA comparisons.

[moonslav59]

I don't think it's a straw man to say your adverse opinion of him and desire to replace him has a lot to do with CERA comparisons.

 

Of course it does, but I have never said he should be benched or play less. The CERA issues have not tilted the balance enough, to me. Now that he will be making $7M, my opinion has changed.

 

Trading him makes sense.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course it does, but I have never said he should be benched or play less. The CERA issues have not tilted the balance enough, to me. Now that he will be making $7M, my opinion has changed.

 

Trading him makes sense.

 

If CERA was as big a deal to the Red Sox as it is to you, they never would have let Leon go.

 

Me and MVP just think you make too much of it. The CERA comparisons with Vaz and Plawecki are all over the place. They scream randomness. There's nothing that shows Vaz isn't doing a good job 'handling the staff'.

[mvp 78]

If CERA was as big a deal to the Red Sox as it is to you, they never would have let Leon go.

 

Me and MVP just think you make too much of it. The CERA comparisons with Vaz and Plawecki are all over the place. They scream randomness. There's nothing that shows Vaz isn't doing a good job 'handling the staff'.

 

^^^

[moonslav59]

If CERA was as big a deal to the Red Sox as it is to you, they never would have let Leon go.

 

Me and MVP just think you make too much of it. The CERA comparisons with Vaz and Plawecki are all over the place. They scream randomness. There's nothing that shows Vaz isn't doing a good job 'handling the staff'.

 

IMO, they kept Leon pretty long as a testament to his value as a catcher who maximizes pitcher results. They certainly did not keep him for his hitting.

 

Plus, he started making about $2M a year, and they probably felt they could find a defensive catcher for cheaper. Now, Plawecki is getting near $2M and Vaz makes $7M, so let's see how they handle this.

 

My comps between Vaz and whoever his back-up were are not "all over the place." I keep a consistent min sample size requirement that both catcher must reach to make the study. I compare pitcher by pitcher, which is how it is supposed to be done to take our unbalanced sample sizes, and I go over every year since Vaz has been our catcher.

 

Yes, there is randomness. I have never claimed the numbers are all tied to pitcher-catcher relations, but when every single season shows 70-80% of the pitchers who meet the min requirements do better and many times much better with the catcher not named Vaz, I think it has meaning.

 

Then, I never said that "meaning" supersedes or should supersede all other factors in valuing a catcher. I have never called for making Vaz the back-up.

 

You guys are blowing up the significance I place on CERA and COPS data. I am merely saying it should be part of the placing value matrix, along with contract cost, offense and other defensive values.

 

There is a lot of data that shows Vaz is not handling the staff as well as his back-up. That's not the same as saying he sucks handling the staff- just that he has not been as good as the other catcher. If Leon was great- maybe Vaz was still good.

 

You can choose to deny it or try to misuse overall CERA data all you want, but facts are facts.

[mvp 78]

You can choose to deny it or try to misuse overall CERA data all you want, but facts are facts.

 

Use of CERA at all is misusing it. It is a stat with no value. Even you said it fraught with randomness.

[Bellhorn04]

My comps between Vaz and whoever his back-up were are not "all over the place."

 

You're misreading what I said. I meant the 2021 data is all over the place.

[moonslav59]

Use of CERA at all is misusing it. It is a stat with no value. Even you said it fraught with randomness.

 

Every stats is. It doesn't make them all meaningless.

 

You don't think the fact that 75% of all pitchers have done better with Vaz's back up over a 6 or 7 year sample size has any meaning or value?

 

It's even more pronounced in pitchers with hundreds of IP'd with 2+ catchers- sometimes a 1.00 or 1.50+ disparity.

 

It's like saying less runs allowed with JBJ in the OF vs JD is totally random and meaningless.

[mvp 78]

Every stats is. It doesn't make them all meaningless.

 

You don't think the fact that 75% of all pitchers have done better with Vaz's back up over a 6 or 7 year sample size has any meaning or value?

 

It's even more pronounced in pitchers with hundreds of IP'd with 2+ catchers- sometimes a 1.00 or 1.50+ disparity.

 

It's like saying less runs allowed with JBJ in the OF vs JD is totally random and meaningless.

 

He's only caught 500 innings with the Sox. How many pitchers have worked with him for "HUNDREDS" of innings. At most, it would be 2.

 

Even then, you'd need to account for opposing lineups which would bring that already SSS even more meaningless.

[moonslav59]

He's only caught 500 innings with the Sox. How many pitchers have worked with him for "HUNDREDS" of innings. At most, it would be 2.

 

Even then, you'd need to account for opposing lineups which would bring that already SSS even more meaningless.

 

I'm talking about Vazquez and all the sample sizes that total in the hundreds for 2 or more Sox catchers- career sample sizes with 100+ IP with 2+ catchers. Here are a few:

 

Price:

4.27 Vaz (360 IP)

2.96 Leon (204)

 

 

Sale

4.03 Vaz (114 IP)

2.79 Leon (435)

2.51 AJ P (226)

 

Porcello

4.96 Vaz (211 IP)

4.19 Leon (577)

4.93 Swihart (122)

 

ERod

4.22 Vaz (603)

4.05 Leon (118)

 

Buchholz

4.44 Vaz (130)

2.83 VMart (241)

3.01 Leon (155)

3.95 Salty (207)

5.12 VTek (118)

 

These are NOT SSS.

[moonslav59]

He's only caught 500 innings with the Sox. How many pitchers have worked with him for "HUNDREDS" of innings. At most, it would be 2.

 

Even then, you'd need to account for opposing lineups which would bring that already SSS even more meaningless.

 

Do you account for opposing pitchers and team defenses when comparing OPS between Betts and Verdugo?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm talking about Vazquez and all the sample sizes that total in the hundreds for 2 or more Sox catchers- career sample sizes with 100+ IP with 2+ catchers. Here are a few:

 

Price:

4.27 Vaz (360 IP)

2.96 Leon (204)

 

 

Sale

4.03 Vaz (114 IP)

2.79 Leon (435)

2.51 AJ P (226)

 

Porcello

4.96 Vaz (211 IP)

4.19 Leon (577)

4.93 Swihart (122)

 

ERod

4.22 Vaz (603)

4.05 Leon (118)

 

Buchholz

4.44 Vaz (130)

2.83 VMart (241)

3.01 Leon (155)

3.95 Salty (207)

5.12 VTek (118)

 

These are NOT SSS.

 

Some of those numbers are really old.

 

So you're not allowing for improvement by Vaz.

[mvp 78]

Do you account for opposing pitchers and team defenses when comparing OPS between Betts and Verdugo?

 

Always.

[mvp 78]

I'm talking about Vazquez and all the sample sizes that total in the hundreds for 2 or more Sox catchers- career sample sizes with 100+ IP with 2+ catchers. Here are a few:

 

Price:

4.27 Vaz (360 IP)

2.96 Leon (204)

 

 

Sale

4.03 Vaz (114 IP)

2.79 Leon (435)

2.51 AJ P (226)

 

Porcello

4.96 Vaz (211 IP)

4.19 Leon (577)

4.93 Swihart (122)

 

ERod

4.22 Vaz (603)

4.05 Leon (118)

 

Buchholz

4.44 Vaz (130)

2.83 VMart (241)

3.01 Leon (155)

3.95 Salty (207)

5.12 VTek (118)

 

These are NOT SSS.

 

1. Buchholz's best seasons were either early in his career or 2013. I can't blame Vaz's CERA with Buchholz on Vaz. Buch was just a flawed pitcher who was trending down prior to Vaz coming to BOS.

2. ERod seems like a push.

3. If the argument is that Leon is better defensively than Vaz, I don't think you have to resort to using CERA for that.

 

You have gone from saying that Plawecki is better with the pitching staff because of CERA, to now just saying Leon is better. Nobody will refute that Sandy Leon is better defensively than Vaz. We just disagree that you got on this CERA bandwagon because of Plawecki.

[Bellhorn04]

1. Buchholz's best seasons were either early in his career or 2013. I can't blame Vaz's CERA with Buchholz on Vaz. Buch was just a flawed pitcher who was trending down prior to Vaz coming to BOS.

2. ERod seems like a push.

3. If the argument is that Leon is better defensively than Vaz, I don't think you have to resort to using CERA for that.

 

You have gone from saying that Plawecki is better with the pitching staff because of CERA, to now just saying Leon is better. Nobody will refute that Sandy Leon is better defensively than Vaz. We just disagree that you got on this CERA bandwagon because of Plawecki.

 

2019 overall CERA's:

 

Vaz 4.53

Leon 4.88

 

Sandy lost his CERA mojo that year, and that's why they shipped him!

[a700hitter]

I will always be pissed about trading and not resigning Betts, regardless of budgets etc. He was a generational talent. In Red Sox history they have had Ruth, Ted Williams, Yaz, Rice, and Betts with similar profiles. IMO, you can’t let franchise defining players walk. Plus, he was my favorite Red Sox player since Yaz, so I don’t care about the other side of the argument.

[moonslav59]

1. Buchholz's best seasons were either early in his career or 2013. I can't blame Vaz's CERA with Buchholz on Vaz. Buch was just a flawed pitcher who was trending down prior to Vaz coming to BOS.

2. ERod seems like a push.

3. If the argument is that Leon is better defensively than Vaz, I don't think you have to resort to using CERA for that.

 

You have gone from saying that Plawecki is better with the pitching staff because of CERA, to now just saying Leon is better. Nobody will refute that Sandy Leon is better defensively than Vaz. We just disagree that you got on this CERA bandwagon because of Plawecki.

 

Plawecki's sample sizes are smaller. Too small to make this study, but in smaller sample size, the trend is continuing. It says more about Vaz than Plawecki and Leon.

 

To say I got on this CERA bandwagon because of Plwecki is just plain wrong. I have been talking about vaz and CERA before I ever heard of a guy named Plawecki.

 

I have also never said CERA is the only aspect of a catcher's defense or the major factor in valuing a catcher. If I did, I'd have been saying bench or trade Vaz starting 4-5 years ago.

 

I bring it up as one tool to measure someone by, and you act like I'm saying it is the be-all-end-all.

 

I'd keep Vaz for next year, if his salary was $2M, so that alone shows you I don't think it is the most important factor.

 

It does matter, though, and it can matter a lot, if the back-up is Leon. It mattered a lot with VTek and his back-ups, which is when I first started championing CERA related value (in VTEk's favor). I also did a study on Posada and how his back-up get much better results from the staff than he did.

 

This is not about Plawecki. I'm fine with DFA'ing him the second this season is over.

 

I also do not believe Vaz is worth $7M, next year. Do you?

[moonslav59]

2019 overall CERA's:

 

Vaz 4.53

Leon 4.88

 

Sandy lost his CERA mojo that year, and that's why they shipped him!

 

Again, a very flawed way to use CERA.

 

I think his age, his contract and his declining offense led them to go with a cheaper option.

 

Let's see what they do with Vaz and the $7M.

[Bellhorn04]

I also do not believe Vaz is worth $7M, next year. Do you?

 

I don't know that he isn't worth it. It's not easy to evaluate a catcher's defensive value. It seems pretty clear to me that CERA has no impact at all on how the team evaluates him.

[Bellhorn04]

Again, a very flawed way to use CERA.

 

I clearly remember in 2019 that a bunch of us thought the return of Leon would save us from Restgate. It didn't happen, the pitching got no better at all.

 

And it was goodbye Sandy.

[moonslav59]

1. Buchholz's best seasons were either early in his career or 2013. I can't blame Vaz's CERA with Buchholz on Vaz. Buch was just a flawed pitcher who was trending down prior to Vaz coming to BOS.

.

I did not "blame Vaz" for Buch's numbers, but hey, Leon and Vaz were both there for the trending down years. neither was there for his other parts of his career.

 

Leon got 1.33 better during the exact same years.

[mvp 78]

2019 overall CERA's:

 

Vaz 4.53

Leon 4.88

 

Sandy lost his CERA mojo that year, and that's why they shipped him!

 

In 2019, Leon was 18th in framing, Plawecki was 12th and Vaz was 5th. That Plawecki number is hilarious because he's horrible at framing now. Maybe because Vaz is rubbing off on him!

[Bellhorn04]

In 2019, Leon was 18th in framing, Plawecki was 12th and Vaz was 5th. That Plawecki number is hilarious because he's horrible at framing now. Maybe because Vaz is rubbing off on him!

 

And framing is an important skill.

 

Yeah, I think the team looks more at numbers like that than they do at CERA...

[moonslav59]

And framing is an important skill.

 

Yeah, I think the team looks more at numbers like that than they do at CERA...

 

Maybe so. I have never claimed otherwise.

 

I'm not sure many teams look at CERA type data, but the fact that many teams intentionally lock one catcher with certain pitchers shows they believe in some aspect of pitcher-catcher relationships and comfort levels making a difference.

 

It's not all about what pitches a catcher calls, either.

 

It makes a difference. How much is highly debatable.

 

How much the Sox use it is unknown. They may laugh at it like you guys do.

[moonslav59]

In 2019, Leon was 18th in framing, Plawecki was 12th and Vaz was 5th. That Plawecki number is hilarious because he's horrible at framing now. Maybe because Vaz is rubbing off on him!

 

Why is 2019 so meaningful?

 

2018:

12 Leon

26 Vaz

 

Maybe the flip in this area led to Leon's departure. Sounds reasonable.

 

[mvp 78]

And framing is an important skill.

 

Yeah, I think the team looks more at numbers like that than they do at CERA...

 

That's why I think a guy like Manny Pina would be a good offseason get for the Sox. Until the robo umps actually show up, you can't just ignore framing. It's how you get calls like this: https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1440461254393417739

 

Vaz just isn't worth the price tag anymore. Plawecki is just Doug Mirabelli, but worse defensively.

[mvp 78]

Why is 2019 so meaningful?

2018:

12 Leon

26 Vaz

 

Maybe the flip in this area led to Leon's departure. Sounds reasonable.

 

 

What was the last year Sandy Leon played with the Sox? You know, the year they decided they didn't need to see anymore of him?

 

I'll just take this call off air and hang up and listen. Thanks.