A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[redsoxrules]

Because he is very likely to opt out of his contract after 2022. And this is the ideal off-season to find a replacement shortstop with Correa, Baez, Story, Seager, Crawford, and Simmons all reaching free agency...

 

Yes and all those players will demand more than what we are giving Bogey. Bogey doesn't seem the type to go strictly for money and I'm sure they could restructure his deal to keep him here at a cheaper price from the name you just mentioned

[notin]

Yes and all those players will demand more than what we are giving Bogey. Bogey doesn't seem the type to go strictly for money and I'm sure they could restructure his deal to keep him here at a cheaper price from the name you just mentioned

 

Bogaerts hired Scott Boras to represent him, knowing full well that Boras' primary tactics are to get to free agency and then ask for lots and lots of money. That's how Boras operates. I know it. You know it. And certainly Bogaerts knows it. I do not think any of us knows Bogaerts well enough to know where money falls on his list, but we do know he hired Boras to be his agent, so it is certainly a priority for him on some level. If Bogaerts had any interest in a cheaper deal, there would have been no need for the opt out clause, which was absolutely not put in there so that he could take less money instead of reaching free agency at age 29.

 

If Bogaerts extends, it will be or money similar to what Correa/Seager/Baez/etc. will be getting this off-season. And all of them will be benchmarking something in the neighborhood of Francisco Lindor's extension (10 years $341mill). They won't all get it, and maybe none will, but that will be the starting point.

 

The most likely bargain of the bunch is probably Baez, who is the same age as Bogaerts and started the season off struggling heavily (although he has been flat out thumping since being dealt). But his right-handed pop bat would play well in Fenway and he does bring extremely strong defensive play that you just don't get from Bogaerts...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bogaerts hired Scott Boras to represent him, knowing full well that Boras' primary tactics are to get to free agency and then ask for lots and lots of money. That's how Boras operates. I know it. You know it. And certainly Bogaerts knows it. I do not think any of us knows Bogaerts well enough to know where money falls on his list, but we do know he hired Boras to be his agent, so it is certainly a priority for him on some level. If Bogaerts had any interest in a cheaper deal, there would have been no need for the opt out clause, which was absolutely not put in there so that he could take less money instead of reaching free agency at age 29.

 

If Bogaerts extends, it will be or money similar to what Correa/Seager/Baez/etc. will be getting this off-season. And all of them will be benchmarking something in the neighborhood of Francisco Lindor's extension (10 years $341mill). They won't all get it, and maybe none will, but that will be the starting point.

 

The most likely bargain of the bunch is probably Baez, who is the same age as Bogaerts and started the season off struggling heavily (although he has been flat out thumping since being dealt). But his right-handed pop bat would play well in Fenway and he does bring extremely strong defensive play that you just don't get from Bogaerts...

 

Red Sox should listen to the first shortstop who says it's not about the money, but "it's all about respect" -- and run from him.

 

Baez could very well thrive in Boston; he's already hated in New York.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox should listen to the first shortstop who says it's not about the money, but "it's all about respect" -- and run from him.

 

Baez could very well thrive in Boston; he's already hated in New York.

 

They love him and Lindor now due to the exchange with the Yankees over the weekend.

[notin]

They love him and Lindor now due to the exchange with the Yankees over the weekend.

 

Well, the Mets’ fans love him. No one cares about Mets’ fans…

[moonslav59]

I think he gets about that, not sure about the 4th year though. I just don't think he's going to get that in Boston.

 

The 4th year was an option with a buyout that juices up the first 3 years.

 

I actually, think Bloom will sign Greinke or Verlander.

 

I think the Dodgers go all out for Kershaw, so maybe Scherzer is within reach.

[oldtimer]

Bogaerts hired Scott Boras to represent him, knowing full well that Boras' primary tactics are to get to free agency and then ask for lots and lots of money. That's how Boras operates. I know it. You know it. And certainly Bogaerts knows it. I do not think any of us knows Bogaerts well enough to know where money falls on his list, but we do know he hired Boras to be his agent, so it is certainly a priority for him on some level. If Bogaerts had any interest in a cheaper deal, there would have been no need for the opt out clause, which was absolutely not put in there so that he could take less money instead of reaching free agency at age 29.

 

If Bogaerts extends, it will be or money similar to what Correa/Seager/Baez/etc. will be getting this off-season. And all of them will be benchmarking something in the neighborhood of Francisco Lindor's extension (10 years $341mill). They won't all get it, and maybe none will, but that will be the starting point.

 

The most likely bargain of the bunch is probably Baez, who is the same age as Bogaerts and started the season off struggling heavily (although he has been flat out thumping since being dealt). But his right-handed pop bat would play well in Fenway and he does bring extremely strong defensive play that you just don't get from Bogaerts...

 

These extreme contracts are great for the players but seem to be counterproductive for the teams. Is Lindor what he is being paid? Is Betts really worth the contract he got. Will anyone who gets a long term contract for 1/3 of the Rays total budget be a long term benefit to the team? If I were the owner, I would want the front office to create a plan of reasonable expenditure and risk and stick to it. We are still eating the Price contract so let's not take another millstone on.

[Nick]

“We’ve been struggling defensively the whole season,” Cora said. “We had some good stretches when we play good defense. When we do that, most of the time it seems like we win games. That’s the bottom line. At this level, you have to be good defensively.”

 

We'll see how Bloom address this....

[moonslav59]

Defense starts at catcher and SS.

 

3B, 2B and CF matter a lot, but not close to those two.

 

RF is important in Fenway.

 

If we don't do anything to improve a few positions, or at least SS, we'll have to have massive advantages on offense and pitching to overcome s***** D.

 

This isn't just some knee jerk reaction to the last few weeks of horrific defense. It's been known and discussed all year.

 

You can't keep asking pitchers, even good to great ones, to keep getting 4 or 5 outs an inning.

 

We still lead the league in highest BAbip against, but the margin is narrowing.

 

It's not just the obvious errors, either. We make so many non error errors, it's not even funny. We rarely make the exceptional plays I see our opps make against us all-to-often.

[a700hitter]

“We’ve been struggling defensively the whole season,” Cora said. “We had some good stretches when we play good defense. When we do that, most of the time it seems like we win games. That’s the bottom line. At this level, you have to be good defensively.”

 

We'll see how Bloom address this....

Maybe he will buy bigger gloves.

[iortiz]

I think in Bush Leagues, players defend better lol

 

This defense is probably the worst in Red Sox history.

[moonslav59]

I think in Bush Leagues, players defend better lol

 

This defense is probably the worst in Red Sox history.

 

I've always loved watching great D.

 

This hurts my brain.

[notin]

“We’ve been struggling defensively the whole season,” Cora said. “We had some good stretches when we play good defense. When we do that, most of the time it seems like we win games. That’s the bottom line. At this level, you have to be good defensively.”

 

We'll see how Bloom address this....

 

More strikeout pitchers. Can’t make errors if no one puts the ball in play…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

More strikeout pitchers. Can’t make errors if no one puts the ball in play…

 

Sox are third in the AL in staff Ks, behind Chicago and NY.

 

That means the D is even worse than we thought.

[moonslav59]

Sox are third in the AL in staff Ks, behind Chicago and NY.

 

That means the D is even worse than we thought.

 

21st in K%.

 

When you face way more batters than any other teams, you'd expect more Ks. It does not mean we have better strike out pitchers.

 

What team has the better K staff?

 

A. 9 K's in 9 innings facing 36 batters

 

B. 10 Ks in 9 innings facing 45 batters

[notin]

21st in K%.

 

When you face way more batters than any other teams, you'd expect more Ks. It does not mean we have better strike out pitchers.

 

What team has the better K staff?

 

A. 9 K's in 9 innings facing 36 batters

 

B. 10 Ks in 9 innings facing 45 batters

 

Being 3rd in K’s and 21st in K% does speak volumes about the defense…

[mvp 78]

Defense starts at catcher and SS.

 

3B, 2B and CF matter a lot, but not close to those two.

 

RF is important in Fenway.

 

If we don't do anything to improve a few positions, or at least SS, we'll have to have massive advantages on offense and pitching to overcome s***** D.

 

This isn't just some knee jerk reaction to the last few weeks of horrific defense. It's been known and discussed all year.

 

You can't keep asking pitchers, even good to great ones, to keep getting 4 or 5 outs an inning.

 

We still lead the league in highest BAbip against, but the margin is narrowing.

 

It's not just the obvious errors, either. We make so many non error errors, it's not even funny. We rarely make the exceptional plays I see our opps make against us all-to-often.

 

I would also say that 1B is fairly important and you can't ignore LF.

[moonslav59]

If we really want to make a significant change to our defense, we have to look at doing more than just one of the following things:

 

1) Replace Bogey at SS (trade him or move him to 3B or 2B). He's going to opt out after 2022.

 

2) Replace Vaz at catcher. I know many disagree, but I think we need a change, here. He's a FA after 2022, so take the $7M option and trade him?

 

3) Consider moving Devers to 1B or even 2B. Half is errors are throwing. His bat is too important to trade away.

 

4) Keep Kike in CF as much as possible, so that means adding a solid infield utility player to cover for Arroyo at 2B. Hope we do better than Marwin.

 

5) Improve RF defense. Yes, Renfroe's arm has made up for a lot of his errors, but it's also the non plays in RF that are hurting us. I'm not sure Verdugo is much of an improvement in RF, and losing Renfroe's bat would hurt. If Renfroe in LF and Verdugo in RF was better, I think Cora would have done that. (It's what I thought our OF was going to be, last winter.) I'm not sure we do this. I think we stick with Verdugo in LF (+), Kike in CF (++) and Renfroe in RF (-), but maybe we pick up a whiz defensive 4th OF'er (gasp, trade Duran?)

 

6) 1B defense has been a major issue, but I think we stick with Dalbec and hope his D continues to improve, there. I do think Devers could be a plus at 1B after just a short learning curve time, but Dalbec at 3B is a big gamble. He won't be our DH.

 

So, is the best option to improve our D to trade Bogey, Vaz and Duran and fill the SS, C and utility IF and OF slots with plus defenders?

 

C ______

1B Dalbec/Devers

2B Arroyo + ______

3B Devers? (Dalbec?) ______?

SS _______

LF Verdugo

CF Kike

RF Renfroe + ________

[moonslav59]

I would also say that 1B is fairly important and you can't ignore LF.

 

Agreed, but are we going to swap out 7 positions going into 2022?

 

We need to focus on 2 things:

 

1. The most important defensive positions (SS, C, 3B, CF)

 

2. Improving our weakest positions on defense(SS, C, 3B, 1B, RF)

 

There is overlap on these two lists and picking the top priorities seems obvious. The problem is Bogey and Vaz are beloved by Sox fans, and we just lost Betts.

 

I think we stick with the improving Dalbec at 1B, Devers at 3B and Renfroe in RF.

 

Maybe deal with those slots the following winter.

Edited September 14, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but are we going to swap out 7 positions going into 2022?

 

We need to focus on 2 things:

 

1. The most important defensive positions (SS, C, 3B, CF)

 

2. Improving our weakest positions on defense(SS, C, 3B, 1B, RF)

 

There is overlap on these two lists and picking the top priorities seems obvious. The problem is Bogey and Vaz are beloved by Sox fans, and we just lost Betts.

 

Probably need to swap out 9 positions.

[mvp 78]

The real cliff is the 2021-22 offseason when they need to purge all the bad defensive guys.

[a700hitter]

Bogey played 3B when he came up in 2013. I’d move him to 3rd. Put Iggy at SS and move Devers to 2B for shits a giggles. Could it be any worse?

[moonslav59]

Bogey played 3B when he came up in 2013. I’d move him to 3rd. Put Iggy at SS and move Devers to 2B for shits a giggles. Could it be any worse?

 

Now or for next season?

 

Iggy's D has dropped significantly over the last few years.

[moonslav59]

Probably need to swap out 9 positions.

 

Kike is a ++ in CF.

Verdugo is fine in LF.

 

Arroyo is a + at 2B, when healthy, but when is that gonna be?

 

Dalbec is a cheap option at 1B and seems to be getting better, so I think we let 1B ride, while forgetting about Schwarber at 1B.

 

Need fixing... (not likely we address all 4, this winter)

SS

C

RF

3B

[notin]

Bogey played 3B when he came up in 2013. I’d move him to 3rd. Put Iggy at SS and move Devers to 2B for shits a giggles. Could it be any worse?

 

Yes…

[moonslav59]

Team Positional Defense

 

DRS Rankings

30th 1B -11

25th 3B -9

22nd SS -3

18th CF -2 (Kike +11 DRS in CF)

18th 2B -1

16th RF -1

13th C +3

2nd LF +13

 

UZR/150 Rankings

28th 1B -4.8

23rd C (6.6 fangraphs rating on D)

22nd CF -3.7 (Kike +10.1 in CF)

18th 3B -2.8

14th RF -0.1

14th 2B +0.1

8th SS +2.2

5th LF +7.3

[oldtimer]

If we really want to make a significant change to our defense, we have to look at doing more than just one of the following things:

 

1) Replace Bogey at SS (trade him or move him to 3B or 2B). He's going to opt out after 2022.

 

2) Replace Vaz at catcher. I know many disagree, but I think we need a change, here. He's a FA after 2022, so take the $7M option and trade him?

 

3) Consider moving Devers to 1B or even 2B. Half is errors are throwing. His bat is too important to trade away.

 

4) Keep Kike in CF as much as possible, so that means adding a solid infield utility player to cover for Arroyo at 2B. Hope we do better than Marwin.

 

5) Improve RF defense. Yes, Renfroe's arm has made up for a lot of his errors, but it's also the non plays in RF that are hurting us. I'm not sure Verdugo is much of an improvement in RF, and losing Renfroe's bat would hurt. If Renfroe in LF and Verdugo in RF was better, I think Cora would have done that. (It's what I thought our OF was going to be, last winter.) I'm not sure we do this. I think we stick with Verdugo in LF (+), Kike in CF (++) and Renfroe in RF (-), but maybe we pick up a whiz defensive 4th OF'er (gasp, trade Duran?)

 

6) 1B defense has been a major issue, but I think we stick with Dalbec and hope his D continues to improve, there. I do think Devers could be a plus at 1B after just a short learning curve time, but Dalbec at 3B is a big gamble. He won't be our DH.

 

So, is the best option to improve our D to trade Bogey, Vaz and Duran and fill the SS, C and utility IF and OF slots with plus defenders?

 

C ______

1B Dalbec/Devers

2B Arroyo + ______

3B Devers? (Dalbec?) ______?

SS _______

LF Verdugo

CF Kike

RF Renfroe + ________

 

I don't see Devers at 2nd base. The position really needs to have a right hander who can pivot and make the double play throw to first. Maybe too much to ask for Devers. You probably will get the same version of Devers at 3rd base as 2021. Error prone, particularly on the throw. Could he handle first base. At least he wouldn't have to make as many throws. Of course that blocks Casas and forces a different position on Dalbec. Nothing easy with Devers. Would that he learns better plate discipline to improve his already stellar hitting. Also, I wish he would get the chaw out of mouth. It's a dirty habit and one that may result in eventual mouth cancer.

[Larry Cook]

Are we over reacting?

 

Schwarber at first was always a round peg in a square hole.

[notin]

Are we over reacting?

 

Schwarber at first was always a round peg in a square hole.

 

He made an error!! He’s gone!!

 

The Sox do need to improve the defense, but it cannot turn into a witch hunt where they realign every position because someone made a booboo

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He made an error!! He’s gone!!

 

The Sox do need to improve the defense, but it cannot turn into a witch hunt where they realign every position because someone made a booboo

 

But is it too much to ask that the 26-28 man roster just carry one late-inning defensive replacement for the outfield, like most contenders do?