A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

One SS that may fly under the radar as so many big-named ones will be signing, this winter, is Simmons.

 

The guy is the best defensive SS and is not a bad hitter.

 

He won't be cheap, but he won't cost half of Correa.

 

Even if we don't trade Bogey, this is a pretty solid IF:

 

1B: Devers

2B: Arroyo

3B: Bogey

SS: Simmons

 

The OF would look good:

LF: Verdugo

CF: Kike

RF: Renfroe

4th: Duran

 

Dalbec would be on the bench or traded.

[moonslav59]

I checked it out. They didn't ignore it. The only issue is that they are showing 1.5 years of control left - suggesting the values are only updated every half-season.

 

The site is a mess. They have this:

 

Kike 1.0 yrs

Schwarber 1.3 years

Others, including Bogey 1.5 yrs

[moonslav59]

FA SSs:

Story

Seager

Correa

Baez

Semien

Simmons

[notin]

One SS that may fly under the radar as so many big-named ones will be signing, this winter, is Simmons.

 

The guy is the best defensive SS and is not a bad hitter.

 

He won't be cheap, but he won't cost half of Correa.

 

Even if we don't trade Bogey, this is a pretty solid IF:

 

1B: Devers

2B: Arroyo

3B: Bogey

SS: Simmons

 

The OF would look good:

LF: Verdugo

CF: Kike

RF: Renfroe

4th: Duran

 

Dalbec would be on the bench or traded.

 

Love Simmons defensively. I told jacko all off-season that’s the guy Cashman should have been going after.

 

But I think we all know who the Sox shortstop will be in 2021…

[moonslav59]

Love Simmons defensively. I told jacko all off-season that’s the guy Cashman should have been going after.

 

But I think we all know who the Sox shortstop will be in 2021…

 

It's a slam dunk. It might be better than 50-50 we extend him, so he won't opt out.

[notin]

It's a slam dunk. It might be better than 50-50 we extend him, so he won't opt out.

 

 

But he won’t sign anything until he sees what Correa gets…

[moonslav59]

But he won’t sign anything until he sees what Correa gets…

 

Are there enough high spenders to sign all those SSs to meg deals?

 

Man, Baez just took himself down a couple notches.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Ok I’m on to 22 now and Bobby D has turned it around let’s talk Pitching Defense BUllpen via Trade ,FA international and farm .Big winter and I’m already pumped up .

[Swiharts Ghost]

How do we drop JDM ? And is Bobby a better defensive third baseman than Rafy at this point ? Edited August 31, 2021 by Swiharts Ghost

[moonslav59]

Ok I’m on to 22 now and Bobby D has turned it around let’s talk Pitching Defense BUllpen via Trade ,FA international and farm .Big winter and I’m already pumped up .

 

Let's not talk.

 

It's pointless.

[Bellhorn04]

One SS that may fly under the radar as so many big-named ones will be signing, this winter, is Simmons.

 

How about Iggy?

[notin]

How about Iggy?

 

He's another excelllebt candidate. I like Simmons' defense better, but that's no slight to Iglesias.

 

But then unless Bloom deals Bogaerts, I think we know who will be at SS...

[notin]

Are there enough high spenders to sign all those SSs to meg deals?

 

Man, Baez just took himself down a couple notches.

 

Well, teams that could spend at SS include the Yankees, Cubs, Astros, Angels, Phillies, Giants, Nationals and Cardinals. And there has been a long-standing rumor that the Rangers cleared out Andrus and temporarily installed IKF at SS in order to clear the way for Texas native Trevor Story....

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He's another excelllebt candidate. I like Simmons' defense better, but that's no slight to Iglesias.

 

But then unless Bloom deals Bogaerts, I think we know who will be at SS...

 

Will Bloom really trade another face of the franchise so soon in his tenure? Will families still spend hundreds of dollars to pack Fenway to watch any level of big league baseball? It worked this summer because people had cabin fever from a year of Covid lockdowns (and the Red Sox unexpected first-place first half). Next year won't be as unforgiving.

[notin]

Will Bloom really trade another face of the franchise so soon in his tenure? Will families still spend hundreds of dollars to pack Fenway to watch any level of big league baseball? It worked this summer because people had cabin fever from a year of Covid lockdowns (and the Red Sox unexpected first-place first half). Next year won't be as unforgiving.

 

I have serious doubts.

 

However, if the right deal can be struck, he should. And as mentioned 2 posts earlier, there may be a decent amount of teams looking for SS help. Just don't deal him to the Yankees.

 

(Personally, I'd rather the team find a SP by moving Duran. More teams will be interested and willing to give up a SP, I'm not wild about Duran, and Hernandez or Verdugo can take over CF.)

[mvp 78]

Will Bloom really trade another face of the franchise so soon in his tenure? Will families still spend hundreds of dollars to pack Fenway to watch any level of big league baseball? It worked this summer because people had cabin fever from a year of Covid lockdowns (and the Red Sox unexpected first-place first half). Next year won't be as unforgiving.

 

The nightmare scenario is them trading Xander and signing some FA SS who pulls a Rentawreck on us.

[oldtimer]

One SS that may fly under the radar as so many big-named ones will be signing, this winter, is Simmons.

 

The guy is the best defensive SS and is not a bad hitter.

 

He won't be cheap, but he won't cost half of Correa.

 

Even if we don't trade Bogey, this is a pretty solid IF:

 

1B: Devers

2B: Arroyo

3B: Bogey

SS: Simmons

 

The OF would look good:

LF: Verdugo

CF: Kike

RF: Renfroe

4th: Duran

 

Dalbec would be on the bench or traded.

 

 

What you suggest is one of the many possibilities for the team position players going forward into 2022. I agree with many of the thoughts you have but also see them as jumping to answers without expressing the basis for those attempts at answers.

 

Norm Cash of the Rays says he values defense as much as offense in his players, whatever that means. Since the Rays are doing very well on a shoestring budget, it is worth understanding his words.

 

Two-way players:

 

I take him to mean that he wants his players to be better than ML average in areas that define defensive metrics and that represents a plus. Such things as range, consistency and arm all play in. If a player is much better than average then it represents a double plus. Likewise, I assume he would apply the same thinking to offensive metrics such as power, on base percentage and base running. Again, these could be categorized as a plus and double plus.

 

Having a player that both rates a double plus in both defense and offense makes them a star. A plus in both makes for a very good player, while a plus in one category and average in another still makes him worth keeping. Players who can excel at more than one position are worth more since during the long grind that is a major league baseball season, there is often need for shuffling of positions. Assigning value to players also requires a look at durability (a 90% available player is worth more than a 60% available player) and the intangible aspects. Intangibles include such things as enthusiasm, openness to coaching and willingness to help other players versus divisiveness, rigidity and self-centeredness.

 

Value:

 

Baseball is a competitive business. Teams are somewhat constricted in their spending habits by available resources and also by artificial limits like the CBT. There are real penalties associated with going over the limits which grow with amount over and also with years incurred. Those penalties impact not only revenues but also the draft of new prospects. We don’t yet know what will be included in the players -owners agreement, but I assume some sort of limit will still be applied. The presumption is that owners and front offices will pay attention to the limits as they have in the past.

 

So there is a budget established by the front office in which player salaries are divided up based on perceived worth to the team. Up the middle players may be perceived to be more valuable based on needs for speed and agility but also on how they profile in the two-way player evaluation. But contracts are also demanded by players for multi-year deals and risk evaluation becomes a stronger evaluation factor. I would think owners and front offices would have learned due to the mistakes of the past, which left teams with overhanging contracts for underperforming players. Clearly, carrying long term dead money contracts causes a loss of competitiveness.

 

One would assume that rookies are not involved in long term contracts and their performance is likely to improve with experience. Players in the league for several years, but still pre-prime are likely to hold their performance, while those in their prime have a limited time before a decline sets in. Teams like the Rays try to avoid long term contracts for prime or slightly post prime players and trade them for younger ones who hopefully have equivalent value. Some teams however, issue longer term contracts to these players and run a high risk of getting bit with underperforming and expensive long term burdens.

 

Organizations:

 

Some organizations are forced by financial constraints to develop young players to fill many slots in their rosters. Being good at this task means stocking the prospect list with young talent and then focusing on it’s development. The Rays are good at this process and the Sox not so good as yet, but Bloom may change that given time.

 

If you look at Sox position players and ask yourself if they are plusses on defense and/or offense you can get an idea of what we could/should do going forward. Also, it is worth looking at their level of development (improving, holding or declining) at their positions. Should they change positions, be considered for trade, be offered long term contracts, we all have opinions? Moon has suggested some which demonstrate a way of thinking. I will wait until the end of the season before adding my suggestions.

 

Players involved in alphabetical order are:

 

Arauz, Arroyo, Bogaerts, Casas (minors) Dalbec, Devers, Duran , Hernandez, Martinez, Munoz

Plawecki, Renfroe, Santana, Schwaber, Shaw, Vazquez, Verdugo, Wong (minors)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you're really building the team around pitching, then you're really building around defense -- like Tampa. I've only seen their games against Boston, but the perfect contrast in the two clubs is at third base, where Joey Wendle is just plain superior to Devers. The Sox boast an all-star slugger at the hot corner, but the consistently solid if not spectacular Wendle D wins the Rays' way.

[Nick]

I'm only suggesting trading Xander because it appears he wants to opt out.

 

I'm okay with rebuild phase. I just don't want bunch of washed up players from other organizations.

 

Let's be little more patient with guys in Sox organization. I would keep Dalbec as a back up to both Casas and Devers, especially if the latter enters FA market in couple of years.

 

Looks like last year's #1 pick, Yorke, is a keeper. Is our future infield Casas, Yorke, Mayer and Devers? Do not, I repeat, do not trade Duran as some here have suggested for a middle of the road reliever. He's a freakin top 25 prospect in the majors. Quit trading away our younger chips.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm only suggesting trading Xander because it appears he wants to opt out.

 

Why do you say that? Haven't heard anything.

[mvp 78]

Why do you say that? Haven't heard anything.

 

Me either. The only people suggesting that he could be likely to opt our are people outside of the organization.

 

Maybe he will? I just haven't seen any smoke signals that he wants to be gone.

[notin]

Why do you say that? Haven't heard anything.

 

It’s just a thought, not some MLB rumor.

 

The reason to suspect he might get dealt is he probably has one year left. The reason to think he won’t be dealt is, the Tampa way Bloom has used in the past is to deal players with multiple years left, allowing for a better return. That Bloom held Xander this off-season knowing he would be without Sale, intentionally keeping payroll below the reset line, and probably expecting the team to improve but not compete all suggests dealing Xander would have made more sense (using the Tampa Bay Way) 8 months ago as opposed to this off-season, so it’s probably not going to happen this year.

 

Still, with a lot of shuffling and re-shuffling of the stars at his position this off-season, it leaves the question “is it the right time to move Xander due to a potential demand or the exact wrong time due to all the other options in free agency?”

[notin]

Me either. The only people suggesting that he could be likely to opt our are people outside of the organization.

 

Maybe he will? I just haven't seen any smoke signals that he wants to be gone.

 

I’d say the opt out is very likely, due to his agent’s preferred tactic of getting players into free agency as quick as possible. Is there any reason one could think of for X to not opt out?

 

I know he simply might prefer Boston. Hey, he might. But then he did not hire Scott Boras because he was prioritizing the status quo…

[mvp 78]

I’d say the opt out is very likely, due to his agent’s preferred tactic of getting players into free agency as quick as possible. Is there any reason one could think of for X to not opt out?

 

I know he simply might prefer Boston. Hey, he might. But then he did not hire Scott Boras because he was prioritizing the status quo…

 

Didn't Tek have Boras. Didn't Tek sign a below market deal to stay with the Sox?

[Bellhorn04]

Didn't Tek have Boras. Didn't Tek sign a below market deal to stay with the Sox?

 

And Xander's deal was arguably well below market. That's why we're worried about the opt out.

[moonslav59]

If we don't extend Bogey, he is opting out. Only a career threatening injury will prevent it.

 

We may still re-sign him as a FA, but he's either extending or opting out.

 

We can keep him, trade him or get a comp pick watching him sign elsewhere.

 

Losing his bat would be a huge jolt to our team. Losing his range at a key position could turn into a significant plus, depending on who replaces him.

 

I'm on the fence. I'd like to move him to 3B or even 2B or 1B, but he'd bolt in a flash. The money is at SS, and he knows it.

 

I think I now know where I will be at, this winter, on Bogey. I'm not there, yet.

 

I'm also on the fence about Devers staying at 3B. He sucked in April and seems to be again in August. Unlike Bogey, I want Devers to be extended long term- almost no matter what the cost. I also think he's an easy going enough guy to handle a switch to 1B, if that's what is best for the club.

 

Our OF looks set on D for 2021:

 

LF- Verdugo

CF- Kike

RF- Renfroe

OF- Duran

 

Arroyo is more than fine at 2B, if he can stay healthy. We get killed at SS, 3B, 1B and C. If we don't address this over the winter, no amount of added pitching or Schwarber staying is going to win us a ring.

 

[mvp 78]

Our OF looks set on D for 2021:

 

LF- Verdugo

CF- Kike

RF- Renfroe

OF- Duran

 

UZR/150

Verdugo 0.6 LF, -7.7 CF, -0.4 RF

Kiké 11.7 CF

Renfroe 1.6 RF

Duran -25.6 CF

 

Renfroe is given a lot of credit for his defense, but here's a list of guys with better fWAR in RF while being a Red Sox: Betts, Rusney Castillo, Victorino, Cody Ross, JD Drew, Trot Nixon, Gabe Kapler.

 

The only RFer I could find for the Sox with worse UZR/150 is Wily Mo Pena. I bet Darren Bragg's numbers would have been higher. Troy O'Leary? Is Renfroe the worst fulltime RFer since Troy O'Leary?

 

But to the real point: Duran sucks at defense. He's really bad. He's maybe a LF only type.

[moonslav59]

UZR/150

Verdugo 0.6 LF, -7.7 CF, -0.4 RF

Kiké 11.7 CF

Renfroe 1.6 RF

Duran -25.6 CF

 

Renfroe is given a lot of credit for his defense, but here's a list of guys with better fWAR in RF while being a Red Sox: Betts, Rusney Castillo, Victorino, Cody Ross, JD Drew, Trot Nixon, Gabe Kapler.

 

The only RFer I could find for the Sox with worse UZR/150 is Wily Mo Pena. I bet Darren Bragg's numbers would have been higher. Troy O'Leary? Is Renfroe the worst fulltime RFer since Troy O'Leary?

 

But to the real point: Duran sucks at defense. He's really bad. He's maybe a LF only type.

 

I guess Renfroe's arm masks the rest of his D.

 

Fenway always dings LF'er on UZR/150, and Verdugo's career UZR/150 in LF is a very nice +9.6. (21 DRS in just 933 innings in LF!)

 

Kike is a +9.5 in CF and +11.9 in RF.

 

Renfroe in RF does have a +13 DRS in almost 3200 innings, but I do see how an improvement in RF could be made.

 

I do still think that OF is a solid plus, as is, as long as Kike plays FT CF and is not pulled to 2B more than a handful of games.

 

On Duran, it does seem like defense was one major reason they held back calling him up, but he has room to grow and learn. Despite his speed, LF it is, until he proves otherwise.

 

To me, our highest defensive needs are (in order)

 

SS

 

C

 

1B

 

3B

 

(flip 1B and C, if you wish.)

 

[mvp 78]

If they keep Kiké in CF, I agree with our needs assessment.

[moonslav59]

Since 2002, only Millar has a worse UZR/150 in RF and over 500 innings than Renfroe.

 

Kike's +11.7 ranks him 1st out of 8. Yes, ahead of Crisp and JBJ.

 

Verdugo is 2nd out of 12 at 6.4

 

Our OF UZR/150 Leaders since 2002:

 

22.0 Reddick

14.6 Vic

14.5 Castillo

14.3 Betts

11.7 Nixon

11.7 Kike

9.1 Crisp

7.2 Jake

7.0 C Ross

6.9 Drew

6.8 JBJ

2.1 Nava

2.0 Verdugo

2.0 Gomes

0.8 Renfroe & Kapler

0.5 Beni

 

The worst:

-27.1 Millar

-23.3 Cameron

-21.7 HRam

-20.3 Manny