How will the regular season end for the 2021 Boston Red Sox

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think you should see how they perform against TEX this weekend before you start doing an endzone dance.

 

Yup, Sox have played like crap for so long, it won't matter who they face until they can improve 4 or 5 tools.

[moonslav59]

I think you should see how they perform against TEX this weekend before you start doing an endzone dance.

 

Of course.

 

I'm not celebrating, but our record should be taken in context- as should teams who played easier opponents than us, so far.

 

If we are still behind, after the schedules even up, some, then yes, it mattered little.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm now officially rooting for the Rays to win. I don't want the Yankees to win the division. So, go Rays! It would also be amusing to see the Yankees and Red Sox meet up in the one game wild card, it'll have that 1978 feel to it. While 1978 didn't work out, anything can happen in a one game wild card, it would probably be Sale v. Cole and I like the Red Sox's chances against Mr. Sticky Stuff.

 

Of course, the A's will have something to say about this as well.

 

Let's say the Rays hold on, the Red Sox continue their collapse, and the A's and Yankees win the Wild Card. The A's can never seem to beat the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs in the 21st Century, I would need to double check that but I'm pretty sure they always lose to the Yankees and Red Sox.

 

The Twins thing is remarkable. I don't remember how many games now, but they have lost like 15 playoff games in a row, most to the Yankees but a few other teams are involved as well. In fact, the Twins haven't won a playoff game since sometime in the early 2000s when J.Santana took the mound.

[Kimmi]

Momentum is real . It exists not only in winning streaks , but sometimes in individual games. It is usually more evident in sports like football and basketball. It has much to do with the attitude and confidence level of the participants. Sooner rather than later , something will happen to break that momentum , but it is a reality. I understand that there will always be the doubting Thomases that will not believe things they can't figure out on paper . And that's okay. But if the players believe it , it has an effect on their performance.

 

Momentum is very real as a descriptor of what has happened. Where it fails is in its predictive ability. Momentum means nothing going forward.

 

As someone who has played sports at fairly competitive levels, I experienced 'momentum' first hand. But it can and does change in an instant, so again, it means nothing going forward.

 

The Yankees had great momentum in the 2004 ALCS. Until they didn't.

[moonslav59]

Momentum is very real as a descriptor of what has happened. Where it fails is in its predictive ability. Momentum means nothing going forward.

 

As someone who has played sports at fairly competitive levels, I experienced 'momentum' first hand. But it can and does change in an instant, so again, it means nothing going forward.

 

The Yankees had great momentum in the 2004 ALCS. Until they didn't.

 

We might be just one glorious big come from behind win away from going on a long winning stretch, and I’m not talking about just vs crappy teams.

[dgalehouse]

Momentum is very real as a descriptor of what has happened. Where it fails is in its predictive ability. Momentum means nothing going forward.

 

As someone who has played sports at fairly competitive levels, I experienced 'momentum' first hand. But it can and does change in an instant, so again, it means nothing going forward.

 

The Yankees had great momentum in the 2004 ALCS. Until they didn't.

 

For whatever reason , momentum can end or shift at any time. It doesn't last forever.. But that doesn't mean that it didn't exist.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Prediction: the only spot up for grabs now is the second wild card, which will be won by either the A's or Red Sox. I suppose the Yankees could still win the division, and the Rays finish with Wild Card #1, but I think the Rays will hold on and the Yankees will be Wild Card #1 and they will play either the A's or Red Sox in the Bronx.

[vegasbob]

Final 40 game forecast : 20W- 20L ; after 8/18 0-1

 

Still staying with 20-20 after 8/20 1-1

after 8/21 1-2 see the trend yet ??

[oldtimer]

Badly.

[Kimmi]

We might be just one glorious big come from behind win away from going on a long winning stretch, and I’m not talking about just vs crappy teams.

 

We led baseball in come from behind wins before the ASB. We just can't seem to do that anymore. Once we get down, I currently have no confidence in them being able to come back. The offense is not doing its job.

 

Even in last night's loss where our pitchers gave up 10 runs and our defense looked like crap, I am most upset with our offense only being able to score one run.

[jad]

Momentum is very real as a descriptor of what has happened. Where it fails is in its predictive ability. Momentum means nothing going forward.

 

As someone who has played sports at fairly competitive levels, I experienced 'momentum' first hand. But it can and does change in an instant, so again, it means nothing going forward.

 

The Yankees had great momentum in the 2004 ALCS. Until they didn't.

 

If 'momentum' can 'change change in an instant', then 'momentum' obviously does not exist.

[Kimmi]

If 'momentum' can 'change change in an instant', then 'momentum' obviously does not exist.

 

It exists as a descriptor of what has already taken place on the field. It does not exist in the sense that a team having momentum will continue to have momentum. It does not exist in the context that most people take it to mean. Therefore, I'm fine with saying that momentum does not exist.

[Bellhorn04]

It exists as a descriptor of what has already taken place on the field. It does not exist in the sense that a team having momentum will continue to have momentum. It does not exist in the context that most people take it to mean. Therefore, I'm fine with saying that momentum does not exist.

 

The Yankees seem to have a fair amount of momentum right now. I fear it's going to continue.

[Kimmi]

The Yankees seem to have a fair amount of momentum right now. I fear it's going to continue.

 

Well, you never count the Yankees out. Even when they were playing horribly, I figured they'd win one of the wildcard spots.

 

The Red Sox had a great deal of momentum in the first half. Especially against the Yankees. That didn't continue. The Yankees have an .810 winning percentage in August. That won't continue. Just as things are not as bad as they look for the Sox right now, things are not as good as they look for the Yankees right now.

[notin]

It exists as a descriptor of what has already taken place on the field. It does not exist in the sense that a team having momentum will continue to have momentum. It does not exist in the context that most people take it to mean. Therefore, I'm fine with saying that momentum does not exist.

 

No on momentum, especially as it gets described on here. But yes on hot streaks..

[Kimmi]

No on momentum, especially as it gets described on here. But yes on hot streaks..

 

Kind of the same thing, isn't it?

[notin]

Kind of the same thing, isn't it?

 

As an engineer/physicist, no. Momentum describes motion that can continue to move forward. After all, momentum is mass times velocity, and Newton told us objects in motion tend to stay in motion.

 

That’s the Misapplied Physics Lesson for today…

[Bellhorn04]

As an engineer/physicist, no. Momentum describes motion that can continue to move forward. After all, momentum is mass times velocity, and Newton told us objects in motion tend to stay in motion.

 

"Tend to" stay in motion - Newton was just another waffler.

[illinoisredsox]

"Tend to" stay in motion - Newton was just another waffler.

 

He was never the same after that apple hit him in the head.

[illinoisredsox]

As an engineer/physicist, no. Momentum describes motion that can continue to move forward. After all, momentum is mass times velocity, and Newton told us objects in motion tend to stay in motion.

 

That’s the Misapplied Physics Lesson for today…

 

Except if you add the rest of the theorem “unless acted upon by an outside force”. Like the opponent’s next starting pitcher.

 

Then it’s not so misapplied.

[notin]

Except if you add the rest of the theorem “unless acted upon by an outside force”. Like the opponent’s next starting pitcher.

 

Then it’s not so misapplied.

 

It’s misapplied.

 

None of Jordan Montgomery, Luis Gil, Andrew Heaney or Jordan Lyles qualifies an an “outside force”…

[moonslav59]

It’s misapplied.

 

None of Jordan Montgomery, Luis Gil, Andrew Heaney or Jordan Lyles qualifies an an “outside force”…

 

How about Voit?

[jad]

It exists as a descriptor of what has already taken place on the field. It does not exist in the sense that a team having momentum will continue to have momentum. It does not exist in the context that most people take it to mean. Therefore, I'm fine with saying that momentum does not exist.

 

Ha ha! I.e., "it doesn't exist." So the RS win 10 in a row. You would say "they have momentum." Then they lose; you say, "they lost momentum." If it has no predictive value, then it's meaningless. There was no "momentum"; there was a series of wins, then losses. To prove 'momentum,' you really need to do a mathematical study to discover whether a team that has won 2/3/4/5 or however many in a row has a chance of winning the next one that is greater than that same team's winning% after winning fewer than that in a row or after a loss. I assume this has been done: it's not a difficult mathematical problem. But I need to see the results of that before I believe this. It's like announcers in a close football game exclaiming "Wow! The constant momentum shifts in this game are amazing!"

[Bellhorn04]

Ha ha! I.e., "it doesn't exist." So the RS win 10 in a row. You would say "they have momentum." Then they lose; you say, "they lost momentum." If it has no predictive value, then it's meaningless. There was no "momentum"; there was a series of wins, then losses. To prove 'momentum,' you really need to do a mathematical study to discover whether a team that has won 2/3/4/5 or however many in a row has a chance of winning the next one that is greater than that same team's winning% after winning fewer than that in a row or after a loss. I assume this has been done: it's not a difficult mathematical problem. But I need to see the results of that before I believe this. It's like announcers in a close football game exclaiming "Wow! The constant momentum shifts in this game are amazing!"

 

The studies have been done, I have no doubt about that.

 

For the average fan it might be more instructive to look at the hot and cold streaks of a hitter. If a guy goes 4 for 4 one day, what do we expect him to do the next day? We know it's extremely unlikely he goes 4 for 4 again. If you look at the game logs of a hitter you'll see the numbers go up and down like a yo-yo. So take that and expand it to a whole team and it's going to be 9 yo-yos.

[notin]

How about Voit?

 

 

He’s what Newton called “an immovable object”…

[jad]

The studies have been done, I have no doubt about that.

 

For the average fan it might be more instructive to look at the hot and cold streaks of a hitter. If a guy goes 4 for 4 one day, what do we expect him to do the next day? We know it's extremely unlikely he goes 4 for 4 again. If you look at the game logs of a hitter you'll see the numbers go up and down like a yo-yo. So take that and expand it to a whole team and it's going to be 9 yo-yos.

 

Now if I remember correctly (a big IF!) such a study (an extensive one) was done on basketball players and the notion of the 'hot' shooter. What that study found was that there was no such thing. All that was out there were different quality shooters: the ones with high shooting percentages had more and longer 'hot' streaks than those with low shooting percentages. Duh. Larry Bird would appear to get 'hot' (i.e., have more baskets in a row), than, say, Bo Outlaw. And both groups performed pretty much as statistics would indicate. (eg., as the most obvious example, a guy say with a 50% shooting average had the same groupings of 'hits' and 'misses' and extended 'streaks' as would a series of coin flips.

 

Of course all of us have had the illusion of 'streaks'. 'I just can't miss'! 'I'm seeing the ball really well!' 'The fairways look wide!' But we tend to think this AFTER the fact. (As for me, given that I'm a mediocre athlete, whenever I get this feeling, I almost inevitably screw up--now that may be due to pressure, or it may simply be due to the fact that I suck, and eventually that will show up. No matter how hot or cold I'm feeling, my golf score is remarkably stable!)

Edited August 22, 2021 by jad

[moonslav59]

I remember reading a book called something like “In the Zone,” where it focused on basketball and tennis players, maybe golfers, too, and how they all described their hot streaks in nearly identical ways. They spoke of how it was like they were not even thinking about it. It just happened. In a way, they were “outside their minds” and everything seemed slowed down.

 

They also mentioned that as soon as they started thinking something like, “man, I’m hot,” the streak would end.

 

Not sure how this fits into the discussion, but felt it seemed real to me, as I had felt that same way during the finer moments of my sports career.

[jad]

I remember reading a book called something like “In the Zone,” where it focused on basketball and tennis players, maybe golfers, too, and how they all described their hot streaks in nearly identical ways. They spoke of how it was like they were not even thinking about it. It just happened. In a way, they were “outside their minds” and everything seemed slowed down.

 

They also mentioned that as soon as they started thinking something like, “man, I’m hot,” the streak would end.

 

Not sure how this fits into the discussion, but felt it seemed real to me, as I had felt that same way during the finer moments of my sports career.

 

This is spot on. You're right. These things absolutely "feel real." But they're likely not. Just as we all "feel" that deep down inside, we are good people (which we likely aren't). (Wasn't there a survey done once where subjects were asked to rate themselves on morality and ethics? Nearly everyone rated themselves higher than Mother Teresa--btw, this was in the days when M.T. was considered flawless). Similarly, my students all consider themselves really smart, and exceptionally hard workers; and members of certain political parties (no names here) all sincerely believe that on matters of public health ... well, perhaps I won't get into it. This and other sports boards provide plenty of evidence that we really don't know sh*t, although we ALWAYS think we do.

Edited August 23, 2021 by jad

[redsoxrules]

The Sox have to finish the season off at 30-7 the rest of the way to even have a chance at the division and even that probably won't be enough. Sadly at this point wild card is the only shot and if they can't get to that with the remaining schedule that they have then it would be quite the failure on this team.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have to finish the season off at 30-7 the rest of the way to even have a chance at the division and even that probably won't be enough. Sadly at this point wild card is the only shot and if they can't get to that with the remaining schedule that they have then it would be quite the failure on this team.

 

Or, we just sweep the Rays.

 

(Yeah, right!)