How will the regular season end for the 2021 Boston Red Sox

[Kimmi]

I'm hopeful for your take, but not seeing it right now. This team isn't showing any signs of life. Beating the O's during a 14 game losing streak doesn't count.

 

I agree that they are not showing any signs of life right now. As soon as the team gets down by even a run, I currently don't have any confidence in them coming back. They are not this bad though. Things will get better.

[dgalehouse]

Usage and effectiveness of the bullpen certainly plays a role in a team's W-L record.

 

But a lot of times you win one or two run games when the bullpen does a crappy job. Sometimes the pen turns a 4 run lead into a 1 run win. Or sometimes the pen blows the lead in the top of the 9th and you score a run in the bottom of the 9th to win.

" Sometimes" and " maybe" are always useful possibilities in rebuttal.

[Kimmi]

The thing is, few of us here, at least, have ever said the Sox were that good to begin with. The Yankees, on the other hand, were heavy favorites -- and though they improved one area that was overrated (Bronx bombing) -- they still have Sanchez behind the plate, and either a minor leaguer or Torres (when he returns) at shortstop.

 

It's obvious NY will sign a big-time shortstop this winter, and that's the reason they didn't part with prospects for one this summer... but it's also why they won't win this season.

 

Bottom line - the Yankees are not as good as they have looked the past 3 weeks.

[dgalehouse]

Bottom line - the Yankees are not as good as they have looked the past 3 weeks.

 

Presently, the Yankees look like a better team than the Red Sox. Hopefully , that will change . Hopefully , we can make hay with our relatively soft schedule from here on out.

[mvp 78]

Bottom line - the Yankees are not as good as they have looked the past 3 weeks.

 

And they are definitely not as good as jacko was telling us this offseason.

[Kimmi]

There surely is luck involved in baseball. Probably more so than in most sports. But a team's record in one or two run games is not entirely luck. It also comes down to the usage and effectiveness of the bullpen.

 

Not entirely luck, but 99% luck.

 

Seriously, one bad ball or strike call could be the difference in the outcome of the game.

 

OTOH, the Yankees are .500 in games won or lost by 5+ runs. That is not a sign of a good team.

 

In comparison, in blowout games, the Giants are 24-7, the White Sox are 24-13, the Rays are 28-12, the Astros are 26-6, the Dodgers are 29-7, and the Brewers are 25-12. Those are your best teams in baseball. You might be surprised at what their records are in 1-run games.

[Kimmi]

Presently, the Yankees look like a better team than the Red Sox. Hopefully , that will change . Hopefully , we can make hay with our relatively soft schedule from here on out.

 

Yes, presently the Yankees look like a better team. Early in the season, the Red Sox looked like a much better team than the Yankees. Things can change quickly.

[Kimmi]

And they are definitely not as good as jacko was telling us this offseason.

 

Not even close.

[User Name]

And they are definitely not as good as jacko was telling us this offseason.

 

*every offseason.

[dgalehouse]

Not entirely luck, but 99% luck.

 

Seriously, one bad ball or strike call could be the difference in the outcome of the game.

 

OTOH, the Yankees are .500 in games won or lost by 5+ runs. That is not a sign of a good team.

 

In comparison, in blowout games, the Giants are 24-7, the White Sox are 24-13, the Rays are 28-12, the Astros are 26-6, the Dodgers are 29-7, and the Brewers are 25-12. Those are your best teams in baseball. You might be surprised at what their records are in 1-run games.

No question , winning a lot of blowout games is an indicator of a team's overall strength.

[vegasbob]

Final 40 game forecast : 20W- 20L ; after 8/18 0-1

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, presently the Yankees look like a better team. Early in the season, the Red Sox looked like a much better team than the Yankees. Things can change quickly.

 

Momentum is huge. Sox folded as their team got tired and the FO clearly didn’t show support. This Sox team is done. They’ll be buoyed by a bad schedule over the next couple weeks, but it gets tougher in September. They’ll be 5-6 games out come end of year and won’t be a PO team

[moonslav59]

Momentum is huge. Sox folded as their team got tired and the FO clearly didn’t show support. This Sox team is done. They’ll be buoyed by a bad schedule over the next couple weeks, but it gets tougher in September. They’ll be 5-6 games out come end of year and won’t be a PO team

 

Did you forget momentum runs two ways?

 

The season has many ups and downs, but you think with 30% of the season to go everyone is now locked into their current trend.

 

Just weeks ago you said your team sucked.

 

They may again over the next 6 weeks. Or not.

[jacksonianmarch]

Did you forget momentum runs two ways?

 

The season has many ups and downs, but you think with 30% of the season to go everyone is now locked into their current trend.

 

Just weeks ago you said your team sucked.

 

They may again over the next 6 weeks. Or not.

 

They did suck. Then they started to play better, then got reinforcements and then started getting healthy. Who are the Sox reinforcements? Who’s coming back that’ll make a measurable impact? That’s the thing here. The yanks had more talent entering the year. Everyone knew it. Their talent got hurt and underperformed. Now the talent is getting healthy, is performing the way they should and had even more talent added. This is a different team than they were 6 weeks ago

[notin]

They did suck. Then they started to play better, then got reinforcements and then started getting healthy. Who are the Sox reinforcements?Who’s coming back that’ll make a measurable impact? That’s the thing here. The yanks had more talent entering the year. Everyone knew it. Their talent got hurt and underperformed. Now the talent is getting healthy, is performing the way they should and had even more talent added. This is a different team than they were 6 weeks ago

 

The guy pitching tonight?

[Kimmi]

Momentum is huge. Sox folded as their team got tired and the FO clearly didn’t show support. This Sox team is done. They’ll be buoyed by a bad schedule over the next couple weeks, but it gets tougher in September. They’ll be 5-6 games out come end of year and won’t be a PO team

 

Momentum is another one of those things that is largely a myth. It means nothing.

 

Try not to take it too hard when the Sox knock the Yankees out in the WC game. If you make it that far.

[Bellhorn04]

Momentum is another one of those things that is largely a myth. It means nothing.

 

Unfortunately, I have seen a number of Red Sox teams go into second-half slides that they didn't recover from.

[User Name]

Unfortunately, I have seen a number of Red Sox teams go into second-half slides that they didn't recover from.

 

And others steamroll september after a s***** august and get far into the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

Unfortunately, I have seen a number of Red Sox teams go into second-half slides that they didn't recover from.

 

That could be the case. It could just as easily not be the case. I'm just saying momentum has no predictive value. It's not a repeatable skill.

[Kimmi]

And others steamroll september after a s***** august and get far into the playoffs.

 

Bingo!

[dgalehouse]

Momentum is playing loose , relaxed and supremely confident . It goes by other names like " red hot " and " on a roll." It doesn't last too long , but it definitely exists and everyone involved knows it. The trouble with the analytics manual is that is is better suited to things like a coin flip , roulette wheel or roll of the dice. It does not understand the human factor.

[Kimmi]

Momentum is playing loose , relaxed and supremely confident . It goes by other names like " red hot " and " on a roll." It doesn't last too long , but it definitely exists and everyone involved knows it. The trouble with the analytics manual is that is is better suited to things like a coin flip , roulette wheel or roll of the dice. It does not understand the human factor.

 

Momentum is one of those descriptive things as opposed to being predictive.

 

When it comes to determining whether a team that is on a roll will win or lose its next game, it's basically a coin flip.

[mvp 78]

And others steamroll september after a s***** august and get far into the playoffs.

 

Which years?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Momentum is one of those descriptive things as opposed to being predictive.

 

When it comes to determining whether a team that is on a roll will win or lose its next game, it's basically a coin flip.

 

Or several throws flipped past hot hitters by a pitcher so completely in command that day that he can shut down a club that scored 20 runs just the day before...

[mvp 78]

@masslivesports

If Boston Red Sox miss 2021 postseason ‘it’s on the front office’ and ‘we have no excuses,’ GM Brian O’Halloran says

[dgalehouse]

Momentum is real . It exists not only in winning streaks , but sometimes in individual games. It is usually more evident in sports like football and basketball. It has much to do with the attitude and confidence level of the participants. Sooner rather than later , something will happen to break that momentum , but it is a reality. I understand that there will always be the doubting Thomases that will not believe things they can't figure out on paper . And that's okay. But if the players believe it , it has an effect on their performance.

[dgalehouse]

I think the Sox make the playoffs as a wild card. This is largely based on the schedule . While they are struggling against the good teams , they are plenty capable of beating most of the losers they face from here on out. And that should build some , ahem, " momentum" going into the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox make the playoffs as a wild card. This is largely based on the schedule . While they are struggling against the good teams , they are plenty capable of beating most of the losers they face from here on out. And that should build some , ahem, " momentum" going into the playoffs.

 

It does not help that we have played 84 games vs .500+ (43-41) teams and only 37 vs .500- teams (26-13), but we do still have a winning record vs winning teams.

 

As a reference point:

 

The A's

35-38 vs .500+ (73 games)

34-15 vs .500- (49 games)

 

NYY

40-36 vs .500+ (76)

30-16 vs .500- (46)

 

One might argue, we'd be ahead of NYY and OAK, right now, had our schedules been balanced.

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

It does not help that we have played 84 games vs .500+ (43-41) teams and only 37 vs .500- teams (26-13), but we do still have a winning record vs winning teams.

 

Not lately.

[mvp 78]

It does not help that we have played 84 games vs .500+ (43-41) teams and only 37 vs .500- teams (26-13), but we do still have a winning record vs winning teams.

 

As a reference point:

 

The A's

35-38 vs .500+ (73 games)

34-15 vs .500- (49 games)

 

NYY

40-36 vs .500+ (76)

30-16 vs .500- (46)

 

One might argue, we'd be ahead of NYY and OAK, right now, had our schedules been balanced.

 

 

I think you should see how they perform against TEX this weekend before you start doing an endzone dance.