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Posted
C: Vazquez/Plawecki

1b: Dalbec/Shaw

2b: Hernandez

3b: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Schwarber

CF: Verdugo

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez

 

BN: Plawecki, Shaw, Duran, Arroyo

 

Vs LHP, Arroyo to 2b, Hernandez to CF, Verdugo to BN

 

Done…

 

As much as this lineups keeps all the big bats in , the defense is very weak with Verdugo in Center and Schwarber in right. Also for 2nd base. Kike is way better in CF than in second base

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Posted
OBP

(.444 Iggy)

.429 Schwarber

.371 Bogey

.352 Verdugo

.352 Martinez

.350 Devers

.340 Kike

.337 Plawecki

.320 Arroyo

.319 Renfroe

.313 Vaz

.306 Dalbec

 

 

 

SLG

(.600 Iggy)

.535 Schwarber

.531 Devers

.521 JD

.511 Bogey

.501 Bogey

.500 Renfroe

.497 Dalbec

.454 Kike

.447 Arroyo

.429 Verdugo

.367 Plawecki

.354 Vaz

.

 

I'm so happy Iglesias is back! I hope he and Shaw are kept for the future.

Posted
As much as this lineups keeps all the big bats in , the defense is very weak with Verdugo in Center and Schwarber in right. Also for 2nd base. Kike is way better in CF than in second base

 

Agree Kike is our best in CF, but the simple fact is that Arroyo right now is not a good bet at 2b because he's missed too many games. Cora has said Kike is the best defensive second baseman after Iglesias.

 

Renfroe goes to RF, not Schwarber.

 

Even if Iglesias were available to play 2b, thus putting Kike back in CF, Cora would still want to get both JDM and Schwarber into the lineup and only one of them at a time can DH.

Posted
Our last 3 games are at WSH with no DH.

 

Things will get real interesting.

 

I have to think JD and Schwarber sit at least one game. Dalbec probably will, too, so Schwarber can get one game at 1B.

 

It also means Kike plays 3 games at 2B and there is no Iggy and much worse D.

 

Nationals starters are primarily righties--lefty Corbin's ERA is 5.92 although it's been 4.01 in September.

 

So that says lefty bats--Schwarber, Verdugo, Devers, and probably Shaw--are likely to start in at least 2 games. The other four would be Kike, Bogey, Renfroe, and Vazquez.

 

If Corbin starts, then JDM goes to LF and Dalbec to 1b--and the other six remain the same.

Posted

Before today's games (Sat, Sep 25), the Sox lead the Yankees by 1 game for the top wild card slot and 2 more games back are the Mariners and Jays tied at 85-69. Sox are 88-66.

 

As Flanders and Swann used to say, things are getting as Titus Andronicus.

Posted
Nationals starters are primarily righties--lefty Corbin's ERA is 5.92 although it's been 4.01 in September.

 

So that says lefty bats--Schwarber, Verdugo, Devers, and probably Shaw--are likely to start in at least 2 games. The other four would be Kike, Bogey, Renfroe, and Vazquez.

 

If Corbin starts, then JDM goes to LF and Dalbec to 1b--and the other six remain the same.

 

I am certain JD will play at least 2 or 3 games at WSH, even if all 3 starters are righties.

 

I am pretty certain Schwarber plays vs all RH'd starters.

 

Not great for our D, but I think that's how it will go.

 

I'd like to see Dalbec play 2 of 3, even if all righties.

Posted

About CERA (catcher's ERA). While I agree it's hard to pin down statistically, intuitively it does make sense that one catcher could be better catching a given starter than another catcher.

 

Such appears to be the case with Eovaldi, the Sox best starter this year. Plawecki caught Eovaldi four times this month with a combined ERA of 2.70 for those four games.

 

Last night Cora decided to go with his main man, Vazquez, and Eovaldi had absolutely his worst start of the season. He went the fewest innings (2.2) and gave up more runs (7) than in his other 30 starts this year.

 

I think having Vazquez catch Eovaldi was a mistake by our esteemed--and deservedly so--manager.

Posted
About CERA (catcher's ERA). While I agree it's hard to pin down statistically, intuitively it does make sense that one catcher could be better catching a given starter than another catcher.

 

Such appears to be the case with Eovaldi, the Sox best starter this year. Plawecki caught Eovaldi four times this month with a combined ERA of 2.70 for those four games.

 

Last night Cora decided to go with his main man, Vazquez, and Eovaldi had absolutely his worst start of the season. He went the fewest innings (2.2) and gave up more runs (7) than in his other 30 starts this year.

 

I think having Vazquez catch Eovaldi was a mistake by our esteemed--and deservedly so--manager.

 

It's hard to pin down why some pitchers seem to do much better with one catcher vs another, and often times it goes on year-after-year.

 

Personally, I don't think the major factor for this is pitch-calling, but certainly that can be a big part of major disparities.

 

Sometimes, I'm not so sure it is something one catcher does very well, as much as it might be about the other catcher just not being very good at it. I tend to think this is the case with Vaz, since just about every "other catcher," except Swihart follow the same pattern.

 

The difficult part of determining if major disparities are significant is the usual unbalanced sample sizes with one catcher having a very small sample size. Most know that I am a big stickler on small sample size judgements, but to me when so most small, along with most moderate and higher sample sizes almost all show the same thing, I have to think some force is at play.

 

On Eovaldi, he has just two years to comp with Plawecki, and one was the short 2020 season. Here are the numbers (note the sample size disparities):

 

2020

0.64 with Plaweckie (.611 OPS against in 14 IP)

4.98 with Vazquez (.970 OPS against in 34.1 IP)

 

2021

2.66 with Wong (.702 in 20.1)

3.50 with Plawecki (.651 in 90.0)

4.77 with Vazquez (.766 in 66 IP)

 

In his not-so-great 2019 season, we saw this:

4.91 w Centano (.787 in 11 IP)

5.68 w Vazquez (.871 in 38)

7.20 w Swihart (.975 in 10)

.7.27 w Leon (.888 in 8.2)

 

2018 (short time with BOS)

0.55 w Vaz (.436 in 16.1)

3.86 w Leon (.697 in 35)

 

Career (only BOS catchers)

2.66 Wong .702 in 20

3.12 Plaw .646 in 104

4.53 Leon .735 in 44

4.60 Vaz .781 in 155

7.20 Swihart .975 in 10

 

Using career CERA/OPS Against numbers to compare catchers is not an ideal way to evaluate disparities, as many pitchers go through several "phases" in their career, and using just single season sample sizes often leads to one of both sample sizes being rather small and or unbalanced. That being said, using Sale's career numbers should be pretty accurate, since he was pretty consistently great every season with the Sox.

 

Sale:

2.79 Leon .578 in 436 IP

4.01 Vaz .759 in 119 IP

 

The ERod career is more complex

4.25 ERA 2015-2016

4.19 in 2017

3.82 in 2018

3.81 in 2019

missed 2020

4.97 in 2021

There were different catchers backing up Vaz during these "phases," so the career numbers would reflect that. Here they are, anyway:

3.78 Hannigan .778 in 50 IP (interestingly, he was the catcher during his worst years)

4.05 Leon .700 in 118

4.22 Vaz .727 in 603

4.44 Swi .692 in 75

 

Let's look year by year:

2015 (No Vaz)

1.29 Leon 7IP

3.89 Hanigan 44

4.08 Swihart 71

2016

3.00 Hannigan 6

4.50 Vaz 22

4.90 Leon 79

2017

0.00 Leon 1 IP

4.22 Vaz 136

As you can see, his first 3 seasons had wildly erratic and unbalanced sample size with various catchers. 2018 & 2019 were not much better...

 

2018

0.00 Leon just 12 IP

4.21 Vaz 118

2019

3.59 Vaz 180

4.34 Leon 19

10.38 Swi 4.1

 

2021 even more so...

Only Vaz has caught ERod

 

 

 

Posted

I've always been big about pitching and defense, but when you compare our offense to theirs, some numbers pop out.

 

Here's a look at OPS+

 

Yanks/Sox (in order of most PAs)

600+

98 LeMahieu/ 130 Devers

147 Judge/ 128 JD

 

500+

134 Stanton/ 107 Verdugo, 132 Bogey, 109 Kike, 113 Renfroe

 

400+

93 Torres/ 78 Vaz

92 Gardner/ 109 Dalbec

106 Sanchez

94 Urshela

 

300+

85 Odor/ none

 

200+

110 Voit/ 52 Marwin

76 Frazier/ none

107 Gallo

78 Higashioka

 

100+

114 Rizzo/ 101 Arroyo

82 Andujar/ 88 Plawecki

93 Wade/ 155 Schwarber

73 Hicks/ 33 Cordero, 57 Santana, 52 Duran

 

By position and current and healthy players:

 

C

NYY 106 Sanchez/ 78 Higgy

BOS 88 Plawecki/ 78 Vaz

 

1B

NYY 114 Rizzo/ 110 Voit

BOS 109 Dalbec/ 125 Shaw

 

2B

BOS 175 Iggy/ 101 Arroyo

NYY 98 LeMahieu/ 85 Odor

 

SS

BOS 132 Bogey

NYY 93 Torres

 

3B

BOS 130 Devers

NYY 94 Urshela/ 93 Wade

 

LF

BOS 155 Schwarber/ 107 Verdugo

NYY 107 Gallo

 

CF

BOS 109 Kike

NYY 92 Gardner

 

RF

NYY 147 Judge

BOS 113 Renfroe

 

DH

NYY 134 Stanton

BOS 128 JD

 

The Sox have just one position with a sub 100 OPS+.

The Yanks have 4.

 

Sox have 8 at 109 or better.

Yanks have 3.

 

 

Posted

Our team won 7 in a row, and we lose 2 games, and suddenly we don't deserve anything and are bums.

 

It's one thing to get frustrated or even angry, but to me, real fans keep supporting their team, especially one like this one that has way exceeded almost everyone's wildest expectation.

 

Posted
Our team won 7 in a row, and we lose 2 games, and suddenly we don't deserve anything and are bums.

 

It's one thing to get frustrated or even angry, but to me, real fans keep supporting their team, especially one like this one that has way exceeded almost everyone's wildest expectation.

 

 

We lost one game because eovaldi was over throwing.

 

We lost today because they tried to go an extra inning with houck, who struggled to locate.

 

Let’s hope Rodriguez is the yankee killer he has been in the past. Then the fair weather fans will be be on the bandwagon.

Posted
It's a long shot for the Seattle Mariners.

 

With this week's four-game sweep in Oakland, the Mariners are 6-1 on their current 10-game road trip with three games remaining in Anaheim. For the third time in four years the M's are likely to be eliminated in the final week of the season.

 

Props to the underdog.

 

As I'm sure you know, the Mariners are an astounding 14 games better than their Pythagorean W-L. The fine folks at Baseball Reference have poked fun at this by posting a "Fun Differential +90" alongside their run differential. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, I imagine that it's been a very fun season for you.

Posted
Our team won 7 in a row, and we lose 2 games, and suddenly we don't deserve anything and are bums.

 

It's one thing to get frustrated or even angry, but to me, real fans keep supporting their team, especially one like this one that has way exceeded almost everyone's wildest expectation.

 

 

Some people have doubted this team all season long, and still do. Yet, here we are, on the cusp of making it to the postseason.

Posted
Some people have doubted this team all season long, and still do. Yet, here we are, on the cusp of making it to the postseason.

 

Cora is taking a lot of heat for mishandling the bullpen last night. But 1) his "All-Star" reliever has been quivering jello since signing an extension; 2) his actual best reliever is on the IL; 3) Cora didn't throw a single pitch in that game.

Posted
Our team won 7 in a row, and we lose 2 games, and suddenly we don't deserve anything and are bums.

 

It's one thing to get frustrated or even angry, but to me, real fans keep supporting their team, especially one like this one that has way exceeded almost everyone's wildest expectation.

 

 

We won 7 in a row against mostly lousy teams. We lost 2 in a row to a team that, along with the Rays, Jays, Astros, and White Sox, are the pool of teams with pitching good enough to get to the ALCS.

 

The Sox hitting is pretty good, but the Yankees pitching nevertheless cut them down to size. The Yankees hitting, on the other hand, hammered our ace in game 1, were in turn cut down to size by Pivetta, and then hammered our bullpen, all of whom (except Brasier, who pitched a meaningless 9th) showed their asses: Robles with his first pitch wild pitch that brought in the Yankees first run, Houck with his obvious stage fright and abysmal four walks, and Hernandez, also scared to death in a big game, with his walk/HBP, followed by a fast ball down the middle to the Yankees hottest hitter for a grand slam.

 

The Sox, as you imply, can still get to the wild card because they have a favorable schedule. But even most loyal of Sox fans must recognize that this year the pitching just isn't there and the actually pretty good Sox hitting is no match for good pitching.

Posted
Cora is taking a lot of heat for mishandling the bullpen last night. But 1) his "All-Star" reliever has been quivering jello since signing an extension; 2) his actual best reliever is on the IL; 3) Cora didn't throw a single pitch in that game.

 

Mostly agree. At the end of the day, the manager is evaluated on wins and losses, so some blame is inevitable. Indeed, my very strong impression from both games is that the Sox were not mentally ready for this series. The hitting--with our best lineups all year long--could not handle the superior Yankees pitching. And the pitching--with the single exception of Pivetta--was abysmal.

 

Last night the bullpen was a quivering bowl of jello. Robles' very first pitch was a WP which brought home the first Yankees run. Houck walked four Yankees and was lucky he didn't give up more runs. Hernandez was similarly terrified and gave up a leadoff walk and the game-winning grand slam. Barnes would have done no better, ditto Ottavino, ditto Richards, etc.

Posted
Assuming the Sox do get to the postseason, maybe a discussion of lineups is in order.

 

The big issue is that Iglesias, who has been fantastic at 2b in the field and at bat, is unavailable. Arroyo is, but in my opinion he is suspect, if not in the field, almost certainly at the plate, which Cora has alluded to. He's missed too many games.

 

On the other hand, while Kike would be just fine at 2b, he would leave a big gap in the defensive outfield.

 

On still one other hand--this is a three-handed discussion--moving Verdugo to CF allows JDM and Schwarber to be DH and leftfielder, Dalbec to play 1b, Renfroe in RF, Kike at 2b and Devers and Bogey at 3b and SS. Or Shaw could start at 1b against lefties. In other words, sacrifice some defense for getting good bats into the lineup.

 

Current Sox OPS's--

 

Iglesias 1.074

Schwarber .971

Shaw .908

Bogey .889

Devers .879

JDM .868

Renfroe .823

Dalbec .806

Kike Hernandez .788

Verdugo .787

Arroyo .767

Plawecki .704

Vazquez .670

 

I now have to admit this post was/is pointless. It really doesn't matter who is in the lineup for the postseason because the Sox pitching is not good enough and because other postseason teams will have pitching good enough to silence whatever bats Cora puts in the lineup.

 

Yes, I still think the Sox can get a wild card slot thanks to the schedule. It's even possible for them to get lucky and win the wild card game, but it is very unlikely the Sox can beat anyone--especially because it will likely be the Rays--in the ALDS.

Posted
Mostly agree. At the end of the day, the manager is evaluated on wins and losses, so some blame is inevitable. Indeed, my very strong impression from both games is that the Sox were not mentally ready for this series. The hitting--with our best lineups all year long--could not handle the superior Yankees pitching. And the pitching--with the single exception of Pivetta--was abysmal.

 

Last night the bullpen was a quivering bowl of jello. Robles' very first pitch was a WP which brought home the first Yankees run. Houck walked four Yankees and was lucky he didn't give up more runs. Hernandez was similarly terrified and gave up a leadoff walk and the game-winning grand slam. Barnes would have done no better, ditto Ottavino, ditto Richards, etc.

 

Quivering bowl of jello? Jeezus. They had a bad game, that's all.

Posted
I now have to admit this post was/is pointless. It really doesn't matter who is in the lineup for the postseason because the Sox pitching is not good enough and because other postseason teams will have pitching good enough to silence whatever bats Cora puts in the lineup.

 

There's no quit in you, huh, Max?

Posted
There's no quit in you, huh, Max?

 

I still like our chances to make the playoffs.

 

Anything can happen in a one game series.

 

We were never good enough to win the Division. We'll see what the off season brings.

Posted (edited)
We won 7 in a row against mostly lousy teams. We lost 2 in a row to a team that, along with the Rays, Jays, Astros, and White Sox, are the pool of teams with pitching good enough to get to the ALCS.

 

The Sox hitting is pretty good, but the Yankees pitching nevertheless cut them down to size. The Yankees hitting, on the other hand, hammered our ace in game 1, were in turn cut down to size by Pivetta, and then hammered our bullpen, all of whom (except Brasier, who pitched a meaningless 9th) showed their asses: Robles with his first pitch wild pitch that brought in the Yankees first run, Houck with his obvious stage fright and abysmal four walks, and Hernandez, also scared to death in a big game, with his walk/HBP, followed by a fast ball down the middle to the Yankees hottest hitter for a grand slam.

 

The Sox, as you imply, can still get to the wild card because they have a favorable schedule. But even most loyal of Sox fans must recognize that this year the pitching just isn't there and the actually pretty good Sox hitting is no match for good pitching.

 

At the risk of sounding disrespectful, so what?

 

We have faults like all teams. We’ve played a tougher schedule than most teams.

 

We have been playing better than expected, which in some weird way seems to get some fans here more upset than had we just stunk like we were supposed to.

 

Newsflash: the Yanks, Jays and Ms have major flaws, too.

 

We deserve the playoffs because we earned it by outplaying most of our opponents- good ones and bad ones by more than the Jays.

 

If we end up losing our slot, it would suck, and yes, we can only blame ourselves, but I will never get the relentless bashing of our manager and plus players on our roster based on one play, one game, one week or month.

 

You’d think the team just went 2-7. The regency effect is something some poster can never shake, I guess.

Edited by moonslav59
Posted
Some people have doubted this team all season long, and still do. Yet, here we are, on the cusp of making it to the postseason.

 

I’ve had doubts, too, but I guess being a fan means different things to different people, which I guess should be expected.

Posted

Things tighter than we hoped...

 

88-67 BOS

88-67 NYY

86-69 TOR

85-69 SEA

 

Remember when the Jays looked like a shoe-in for the WC1 slot?

 

Things can change on a dime in MLB, and let's hope that happens, tonight.

 

Next match-ups:

 

Sunday

TOR (Manoah) @ MIN (Jax)

NYY (Montgomery) @ BOS (ERod)

 

Monday

Off

 

Tuesday

BOS (Sale) @ BAL (No Means - prob: Akin or Lowther)

NYY (Kluber) @ TOR (Matz)

 

Wednesday

BOS (Eovaldi) @ BAL (No Means- maybe Lowther or Wells)

NYY (Cole) @ TOR (Berrios)

 

Thursday

BOS (Pivetta) @ BAL (No Means- maybe Wells or Ellis)

NYY (Cortes) @ TOR (RRay)

 

Last series:

BOS @ WSH (ERod, Seabold/Houck, Sale, if needed)

TBR @ NYY

BAL @ TOR

Posted
At the risk of sounding disrespectful, so what?

 

We have faults like all teams. We’ve played a tougher schedule than most teams.

 

We have been playing better than expected, which in some weird way seems to get some fans here more upset than had we just stunk like we were supposed to.

 

Newsflash: the Yanks, Jays and Ms have major flaws, too.

 

We deserve the playoffs because we earned it by outplaying most of our opponents- good ones and bad ones by more than the Jays.

 

If we end up losing our slot, it would suck, and yes, we can only blame ourselves, but I will never get the relentless bashing of our manager and plus players on our roster based on one play, one game, one week or month.

 

You’d think the team just went 2-7. The regency effect is something some poster can never shake, I guess.

 

I think you mean "recency effect," which is a pretty neat word and aptly describes my commentary.

 

That said, I have to ask you why the "recency effect" is inappropriate in late September when the Sox and Yankees--one of the best rivalries in sports-- are playing a huge series for both teams? To me this is the right time to be a bit fanatical and even, since the Yankees have dominated the Sox at Fenway for the past 2 days, disappointed.

 

So, yes, I'm disappointed and probably even over-reacting, but I'd rather be that way than to say, "who cares? One game is much like another and there are really no big games or big series in a season."

Posted
I think you mean "recency effect," which is a pretty neat word and aptly describes my commentary.

 

That said, I have to ask you why the "recency effect" is inappropriate in late September when the Sox and Yankees--one of the best rivalries in sports-- are playing a huge series for both teams? To me this is the right time to be a bit fanatical and even, since the Yankees have dominated the Sox at Fenway for the past 2 days, disappointed.

 

So, yes, I'm disappointed and probably even over-reacting, but I'd rather be that way than to say, "who cares? One game is much like another and there are really no big games or big series in a season."

 

Yes, "recency."

 

There is a middle ground between "who cares" and thinking only the last two games matter and project who we will be in the next game or week.

 

Baseball is a game where the best team does not always win. That's why they play 162. It's also why we should not let one or two games define who this team is.

 

Of course, it sucks. Of course, we should care. Of course, it tells us something about this team- just not everything.

 

I think we will win, today, but even if we lose, we should make the playoffs and getting swept by the Yanks will have no bearing on how we do in that play-in game or beyond, should we win. (Ok, maybe close to nothing.)

Posted
At the risk of sounding disrespectful, so what?

 

We have faults like all teams. We’ve played a tougher schedule than most teams.

 

We have been playing better than expected, which in some weird way seems to get some fans here more upset than had we just stunk like we were supposed to.

 

Newsflash: the Yanks, Jays and Ms have major flaws, too.

 

We deserve the playoffs because we earned it by outplaying most of our opponents- good ones and bad ones by more than the Jays.

 

If we end up losing our slot, it would suck, and yes, we can only blame ourselves, but I will never get the relentless bashing of our manager and plus players on our roster based on one play, one game, one week or month.

 

You’d think the team just went 2-7. The regency effect is something some poster can never shake, I guess.

 

About the bashing. We all have done it, even you with your lengthy perorations on the lousy defense (which has been lousy). But very few of us have bashed Cora even though now and then anyone of us might gripe about a specific call he made. Every time someone asks what is the biggest reason for the Sox unexpected success this season, the resounding answer is Cora.

Posted
About the bashing. We all have done it, even you with your lengthy perorations on the lousy defense (which has been lousy). But very few of us have bashed Cora even though now and then anyone of us might gripe about a specific call he made. Every time someone asks what is the biggest reason for the Sox unexpected success this season, the resounding answer is Cora.

 

I am not innocent, as you point out.

 

As much as I have criticized (or bashed) defense and things like Vaz's CERA issues, I never say they suck or should be DFA'd. Yes, guys like Santana and Marwin, I have.

 

I've been critical of Bogey's D, but try to always say he is by far a net plus. I've been critical of Cora and Bloom, too, but I guess it just bothers me that people confuse making a bad decision, which might not even be all taht bad, with calling the guy a "bum" or to say "cut his ass," not that you have gone to those extremes.

 

BTW, not everyone agrees Cora is a major reason we are where we are, today. Most do but not all.

 

Same with Bloom.

Posted
Quivering bowl of jello? Jeezus. They had a bad game, that's all.

 

I think Maxie knows that. He just wanted to get the " quivering bowl of jello" quip in there before the season ended. Some of the things Max says are strictly for effect. Not always entirely serious and always subject to change.

Posted (edited)
At the risk of sounding disrespectful, so what?

 

We have faults like all teams. We’ve played a tougher schedule than most teams.

FWIW the Red Sox have a losing record (46-47) against teams with a record above .500 but a 13-4 record against the floundering National League East:

 

WWW.MLB.COM

The official standings for Major League Baseball including division and league standings for regular season, wild card, and playoffs.

 

The Seattle Mariners have a 41-37 record against teams with a record above .500 but a 9-11 record against the daunting National League West.*

 

As three games separate the teams in the Wild Card standings, we'll never know what would have happened if the Red Sox had drawn the NL West in interleague play and the Mariners the NL East.

 

Good luck in the postseason.

* In defense of the AL East, its teams dominated AL West teams in the final two months to finish with an 82-79 record in head-to-head competition against their West opponents.

Edited by harmony
Posted
I think Maxie knows that. He just wanted to get the " quivering bowl of jello" quip in there before the season ended. Some of the things Max says are strictly for effect. Not always entirely serious and always subject to change.

 

Target. I love language and bon mots and will try almost anything. I did get pretty excited last night because I genuinely thought Robles, Houck, and Hernandez folded under the pressure of a big and close game. Maybe they'd never been in one before. Eovaldi had--he was great in the 2018 postseason--so I decided, no doubt unfairly, to blamed that bad start on Vazquez.

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