A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[User Name]

The bigger problem at the deadline was not having the prospects. It had little to do with money.

 

This is a good point.

[moonslav59]

I know this is the 2021 thread, but I don't want to further jinx the season by starting the 2022 thread early.

 

Here is a look at next year's projected 26 (Red) and 40 (Blue) man roster.

 

Free Agents:

ERod

Ottavino

Marwin

Robles

Santana

 

Projected Options not given:

Richards ($10M/$1.5 Mb/o)

Perez ($6M/ $500K b/0)

Andriese ($3.5M/ $250K b/o)

 

Projected opt out: Schwarber ($11.5M)

 

Projected Options given: Vaz ($7M)

Projected no opt out: JD ($19.4M)

 

2022 (4 projected FA signings- #2 SP, #2 RP, 1B, Utility IF'er):

(5) Rule 5 protected

 

SP: Sale, FA, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, Seabold, Groome, Mata, Bello (5), Winckowski (5)

RP: Barnes, FA, Houck, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier, Valdez

Rios, Bazardo

C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong, Ro. Hernandez (bubble?)

1B: FA, Dalbec, Cordero

2B: Arroyo Downs (5)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey, FA

LF: Verdugo

CF: Kike, Duran. Jimenez (5)

RF: Renfroe

DH: JD

 

Any 3 from...

5th FA or 6th FA

Current 40 Man Bubble (all have options remaining): A Davis, Rosario, Potts, Arauz

Possible Rule 5 protected: Kutter Crawford, Victor Santos, Thaddeus Ward

Cole Brannen, Cole Cottam, Durbin Feltman, Frank German, Devlin Granberg. Kaleb Ort, Tyreque Reed, John Schreiber

 

[moonslav59]

We could've Jimenez into a package of some sort.... Kid will never make it past AA at best. Hitting around .300 in Salem and is shaky as hell in CF. As far as Barnes.... I bet he goes on the IL real soon with a mysterious injury or the Covid List.

 

Strange prediction.

 

Jimenez has more upside than any other OF prospect, including maybe Duran.

 

His defense has been shaky, but so was Duran's.

 

Plus, we don't know how much Bloom and other GMs value Jimenez or any of our prospects.

[moonslav59]

The bigger problem at the deadline was not having the prospects. It had little to do with money.

 

And in addition, the few good or promising ones we have are held with such high value to the team that further weakening an already weak farm is so counterproductive and anti-rebuild that Bloom probably had to be wowed to part with one, let alone the several it would have taken to get many of the players some posters hoped we'd end up getting.

[oldtimer]

I know this is the 2021 thread, but I don't want to further jinx the season by starting the 2022 thread early.

 

Here is a look at next year's projected 26 (Red) and 40 (Blue) man roster.

 

Free Agents:

ERod

Ottavino

Marwin

Robles

Santana

 

Projected Options not given:

Richards ($10M/$1.5 Mb/o)

Perez ($6M/ $500K b/0)

Andriese ($3.5M/ $250K b/o)

 

Projected opt out: Schwarber ($11.5M)

 

Projected Options given: Vaz ($7M)

Projected no opt out: JD ($19.4M)

 

2022 (4 projected FA signings- #2 SP, #2 RP, 1B, Utility IF'er):

(5) Rule 5 protected

 

SP: Sale, FA, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, Seabold, Groome, Mata, Bello (5), Winckowski (5)

RP: Barnes, FA, Houck, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier, Valdez

Rios, Bazardo

C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong, Ro. Hernandez (bubble?)

1B: FA, Dalbec, Cordero

2B: Arroyo Downs (5)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey, FA

LF: Verdugo

CF: Kike, Duran. Jimenez (5)

RF: Renfroe

DH: JD

 

Any 3 from...

5th FA or 6th FA

Current 40 Man Bubble (all have options remaining): A Davis, Rosario, Potts, Arauz

Possible Rule 5 protected: Kutter Crawford, Victor Santos, Thaddeus Ward

Cole Brannen, Cole Cottam, Durbin Feltman, Frank German, Devlin Granberg. Kaleb Ort, Tyreque Reed, John Schreiber

 

One would have to assume that the plan includes spending over the CBT which will give us some flexibility in the FA market. After the experience with Bloom at the trade deadline I find him hard to read as his words and actions don't align. to me having developed quality talent in the minors, it makes sense to add them to the team as a low cost floor and to bring in FA's to fill key positions of weakness. Why would we bring in an injured Schwaber, who was not a good fit for our 2021 year if we didn't plan to make a strong effort to resign him? What does that say about JDM going forward?

 

I don't share your implied criticism of Duran. When playing outfield he has done the job defensively and he is still only around 70 ML AB's. In the last 4 games where he was in the starting lineup he has had 2 hits 3 times and 1 hit the other. That compares favorably with any other hitter in the lineup over that period. He is figuring things out as he goes and should be in the lineup against right handers. His strikeout rate is coming down recently. Give the kid a break.

[mvp 78]

Strange prediction.

 

Jimenez has more upside than any other OF prospect, including maybe Duran.

 

His defense has been shaky, but so was Duran's.

 

Plus, we don't know how much Bloom and other GMs value Jimenez or any of our prospects.

 

I would like to have them move Jimenez to a LHB only profile. That RHB swing isn't working.

[mvp 78]

I would like to have them move Jimenez to a LHB only profile. That RHB swing isn't working.

 

vs RHP 801 OPS

vs LHP 482 OPS

[moonslav59]

 

I don't share your implied criticism of Duran. When playing outfield he has done the job defensively and he is still only around 70 ML AB's. In the last 4 games where he was in the starting lineup he has had 2 hits 3 times and 1 hit the other. That compares favorably with any other hitter in the lineup over that period. He is figuring things out as he goes and should be in the lineup against right handers. His strikeout rate is coming down recently. Give the kid a break.

 

I am super high on Kike's defense in CF, and I was the minute we signed him, while everyone else was saying he's best at 2B.

 

I also think Arroyo, once healthy, is better in the line-up than Duran.

 

I am still very high on Duran. In fact, I placed him above Casas on my prospect ranking list- second only to Mayer.

 

This is not about any shortcomings Duran may have. It's about me liking Kike in CF and Arroyo at 2B more.

 

I still had Duran starting more often than not, which may end up being more than Cora will plans to do.

[moonslav59]

One would have to assume that the plan includes spending over the CBT which will give us some flexibility in the FA market. After the experience with Bloom at the trade deadline I find him hard to read as his words and actions don't align. to me having developed quality talent in the minors, it makes sense to add them to the team as a low cost floor and to bring in FA's to fill key positions of weakness. Why would we bring in an injured Schwaber, who was not a good fit for our 2021 year if we didn't plan to make a strong effort to resign him? What does that say about JDM going forward?

 

I could be wrong, but I expect us to go significantly over the tax line in 2022- perhaps $19.9M over.

 

I also think the idea is to play Schwarber at 1B, even in 2022, assuming we extend or re-sign him. If we sign him beyond 2022, maybe he takes JD's DH slot. Maybe he ends up in LF, if we trade an OF'er or someone flops.

 

I think we sign...

 

A strong SP'er (#1 older pitcher or #2 middle aged)

 

A strong set up man or closer

 

A 1Bman

 

A utility IF'er

 

Maybe a 5th FA (pitching depth or utility-type player)

 

We may spend $30-40M on new FAs or extensions (Devers/Bogey/JD?)

[moonslav59]

I would like to have them move Jimenez to a LHB only profile. That RHB swing isn't working.

 

He still has a long way to go. If he still sucks on splits by AA or AAA, then, yes.

[moonslav59]

vs RHP 801 OPS

vs LHP 482 OPS

 

2019:

.894 v R

.728 v L (respectable at that age)

[notin]

Austin Davis then.

 

 

Ok. Yeah I wasn’t wild about Davis. I could see why Robles was acquired, or at least why there was some interest. (His fastball velocity is back up to 2019 levels when he was actually very good.). But I never heard of Davis.

 

In my imagination, the entire trade with Pitt went down as follows:

 

Bloom: Hey Ben. Chaim here. It’s like 2:58 EST and I need an arm. You drafted Chavis in the first round, which makes you the only person in the in the country not associated with his birth to see something in him. What’ll you give me for him?

Ben: Hmm. Austin Davis?

Bloom: Who? Never heard of him. (Looks at watch). Done!!

[mvp 78]

He still has a long way to go. If he still sucks on splits by AA or AAA, then, yes.

 

You think it'll get better?

[mvp 78]

Ok. Yeah I wasn’t wild about Davis. I could see why Robles was acquired, or at least why there was some interest. (His fastball velocity is back up to 2019 levels when he was actually very good.). But I never heard of Davis.

 

In my imagination, the entire trade with Pitt went down as follows:

 

Bloom: Hey Ben. Chaim here. It’s like 2:58 EST and I need an arm. You drafted Chavis in the first round, which makes you the only person in the in the country not associated with his birth to see something in him. What’ll you give me for him?

Ben: Hmm. Austin Davis?

Bloom: Who? Never heard of him. (Looks at watch). Done!!

 

I forgot about the Ben aspect. Should have dangled Castellanos to him as well.

[MADSTORK]

The bigger problem at the deadline was not having the prospects. It had little to do with money.

 

 

Really? $$

Dead money against the lux tax bill, Price Pedroia Benni 30 million

 

Benni 2.8 against the tax, great trade hey Orlando. But wait you boys got Frenchy and 24 year old in Double AA, Brilliant!

[mvp 78]

Really? $$

Dead money against the lux tax bill, Price Pedroia Benni 30 million

 

Benni 2.8 against the tax, great trade hey Orlando. But wait you boys got Frenchy and 24 year old in Double AA, Brilliant!

 

Beni's 719 OPS would be 9th for the Red Sox. A trade straight up for Winckowski would have been a good deal for the Sox.

[notin]

I forgot about the Ben aspect. Should have dangled Castellanos to him as well.

 

The only aspect of my scenario that I doubt is whether or not Chaim Bloom wears a watch.

 

I did wonder if his motivation was to make a trade where the players’ names rhymed. And clearly he was not going to do that in any deal involving Kyle Schwarber…

Edited August 11, 2021 by notin

[mvp 78]

The only aspect of my scenario that I doubt is whether or not Chaim Bloom wears a watch.

 

I did wonder if his motivation was to make a trade where the players’ names rhymed. And clearly he was not going to do that in any deal involving Kyle Schwarber…

 

Google image search reveals that he does NOT wear a watch!

[moonslav59]

You think it'll get better?

 

I have no clue, but prospects, especially younger ones, often get better in their weakest areas, because that is what their coaches focus on improving.

 

I am far from a prospect expert, but I like Jimenez, or in other words, I like what I have read about him.

 

I would think he'd get better, but he has a lot of getting better to do in that split.

 

(Also, the sample size is rather small- 60 PAs in 2021 after a full season and 2021 April off.)

[moonslav59]

Really? $$

Dead money against the lux tax bill, Price Pedroia Benni 30 million

 

Benni 2.8 against the tax, great trade hey Orlando. But wait you boys got Frenchy and 24 year old in Double AA, Brilliant!

 

We got 4 players for Beni and saved a little money, despite paying KC $2.8M for this year, only.

[notin]

We could've Jimenez into a package of some sort.... Kid will never make it past AA at best. Hitting around .300 in Salem and is shaky as hell in CF. As far as Barnes.... I bet he goes on the IL real soon with a mysterious injury or the Covid List.

 

Gilberto Jimenez was one trade chip I was actually disappointed to see still on the Sox, but maybe other GMs don’t like him as much as I did.

 

But if you think he should have been traded, I don’t think “will never make it past AAA” is the best marketing strategy…

[notin]

Google image search reveals that he does NOT wear a watch!

 

So my whole scenario was a fraud!! For shame!!

 

Wait - does his office have a wall clock?

[moonslav59]

ASAP:

 

DFA Santana, Demote Arauz, Add Munoz and promote to ML roster.

 

Demote A Davis or Y Rios and promote Houck.

 

Saturday: Activate Sale from 60 day IL & promote & DFA Andriese.

 

When ready:

Activate & promote Brasier, demote A Davis or Y Rios

Activate & promote Swarber, demote Cordero

Activate & promote Arroyo, demote Dalbec or Munoz

[iortiz]

ASAP:

 

DFA Santana, Demote Arauz, Add Munoz and promote to ML roster.

 

Demote A Davis or Y Rios and promote Houck.

 

Saturday: Activate Sale from 60 day IL & promote & DFA Andriese.

 

When ready:

Activate & promote Brasier, demote A Davis or Y Rios

Activate & promote Swarber, demote Cordero

Activate & promote Arroyo, demote Dalbec or Munoz

 

I would keep Muñoz, Arauz, Rios and Cordero.

 

Demote/DFA Dalbec, Andriese, Robles, Davis and Marwin.

 

Not sure what to do with Santana. If still space keep him, if not DFA.

[iortiz]

Reading that Richards was just sent to the BP. He probably will help this team from there.

[oldtimer]

ASAP:

 

DFA Santana, Demote Arauz, Add Munoz and promote to ML roster.

 

Demote A Davis or Y Rios and promote Houck.

 

Saturday: Activate Sale from 60 day IL & promote & DFA Andriese.

 

When ready:

Activate & promote Brasier, demote A Davis or Y Rios

Activate & promote Swarber, demote Cordero

Activate & promote Arroyo, demote Dalbec or Munoz

 

The roster shakeup talked about has yet to see a player really activated to the active list. Why are they waiting? When these critical games play out we may then do something constructive.

[MADSTORK]

We got 4 players for Beni and saved a little money, despite paying KC $2.8M for this year, only.

 

Winckowski is a JAG age 23 sitting in AA Whats that tell you?

Gambrell is 24 in High A with an era over 7 Brilliant!

2 19 year olds in Florida, who at that age, are a dime a dozen

 

Quantity over quality must be a pre-requisite in Orlando's Office?

 

AB was a Player and would be looking real good right now in LF

[moonslav59]

Winckowski is a JAG age 23 sitting in AA Whats that tell you?

Gambrell is 24 in High A with an era over 7 Brilliant!

2 19 year olds in Florida, who at that age, are a dime a dozen

 

Quantity over quality must be a pre-requisite in Orlando's Office?

 

AB was a Player and would be looking real good right now in LF

 

I never said the 4 guys we got plus some salary relief was all going to show results, this year. I just corrected your 2 player comment.

 

You can choose to think negatively. You can't make me think that way.

 

I like Winckowski. Valdez and Gambrel have some upside, and the more guys like them we have, the better chances a few make it bigtime.

[moonslav59]

So no added bonus there. If Schwarber agrees to the option, the deal is fine. It's iffy IMO if it's only for this injured season.

 

If Schwarber decides to extend or re-sign with us, does that count for something?

[moonslav59]

Well, once the team is complete, my untouchables and who IMO have to play almost every day are (in this order):

 

Devers

Xander

Verdugo

Arroyo

Shwarber

JD

Renfroe

Kevin (yes, over Vazquez)

 

Then I have these guys in the mix who can share some roles depending on the situation:

 

Duran

Kike

Muñoz (he is someone I want in this tram already)

Vazquez

Cordero

Dalbec

 

You still don't think Kike should play everyday?

 

You like Renfroe, Plawecki, Verdugo and made-of- glass Arroyo more than him?