trade deadline

[mvp 78]

a) I don't see why this methodology for rating offenses is better than things like runs scored per game.

The starting pitching may look a whole lot better if Sale and E-Rod pitch up to their capabilities.

c) I think this team is capable of making it to the ALCS. On paper, we might get smoked once we get there, but then you have your crapshoot factors too.

 

If they don't win the division, they will not win the WC game IMO.

[notin]

a) I don't see why this methodology for rating offenses is better than things like runs scored per game.

 

Especially as it’s completely subjective with no mention of what the grades reflect or how other teams stack up.

 

But really, taking any bets against the field is not exactly a method to show confidence. pick any team you want to bet on for the World Series and give me the field, and I’ll take that bet…

[moonslav59]

If we put off the lux cap indefinitely, they'll never go over.

 

I don't see that happening, but maybe Henry is fed up paying so much, especially when we were top 3 spenders in 2019 and 2020.

 

I also look more at year 2 and 3 of being over the tax line as the most important. The team will try to avoid year 3, or just be a tiny bit over, if need be.

 

That's why staying under this year was so important. Doing so, actually allows us more flex not just for 2022, but '23 and '24, too.

[mvp 78]

I don't see that happening, but maybe Henry is fed up paying so much, especially when we were top 3 spenders in 2019 and 2020.

 

I also look more at year 2 and 3 of being over the tax line as the most important. The team will try to avoid year 3, or just be a tiny bit over, if need be.

 

That's why staying under this year was so important. Doing so, actually allows us more flex not just for 2022, but '23 and '24, too.

 

They are in a playoff race this year. They could be completely out of it in year 3.

[moonslav59]

Especially as it’s completely subjective with no mention of what the grades reflect or how other teams stack up.

 

But really, taking any bets against the field is not exactly a method to show confidence. pick any team you want to bet on for the World Series and give me the field, and I’ll take that bet…

 

Plus, put Kike in CF and Arroyo at 2B, and the grades go up.

 

No grade for the pen hurts the overall view, too.

[moonslav59]

They are in a playoff race this year. They could be completely out of it in year 3.

 

I get that, but that is not a reason to hurt your chances in 2022, 2023, 2024 and beyond to go all in during a clear rebuild year.

 

Listening to posters over the last 2 weeks rip apart this team, it sure sounds like we needed more than Scherzer, Rizzo and Kimbrel to be a top fave.

 

At what cost?

[oldtimer]

We are far into the 162 game season with players first going through Spring training. Many in baseball talk about it as a grind and well they should. Players are human after all and the physiological and psychological effects of the long term season gets to them

The physical aspects of having trained hard, eaten appropriately and avoided dissolution put these players in good stead to face the season. Over the long term, with all the travel and physical exertion, it must be hard for them to remain strict and dedicated. One thinks of great players like Ruth and Mantle who were anything but strict and perhaps shortened their careers or lessened their performance. Whatever, all of the games stress joints, ligaments, muscles and bones. Older players have had accumulated injuries to deal with and players in tough positions like catching get beat up and tired. Pitchers are also more subject to wear and tear. Cora’s approach is to try to rest players and to send them to the IL to recover from nagging injuries. That is not easy to do with the very thin bench that we have now in August. I also wonder if there is behind the scenes pressure to rid guys of some bad habit like drinking to excess or putting on extra pounds. I notice Rafi appears to chew tobacco, which release toxins and may affect him long terms and should be encouraged to stop.

The psychological effects are hard to pin down but I notice a number of Olympic athletes speak of their struggles with the pressure associated with expectations placed on them. It can’t be that different for ball players who are subjected to the pressure year-round. Players get bad press when they don’t perform and it must be hard to sluff off. Perhaps the best bulwark for them is being part of a team and the support that provides. The team includes the players, coaches, manager and owners, so when it doesn’t appear they have a common goal, that message might have a negative impact on an individual’s mindset. I am thinking of the trade deadline as an example.

Fans who focus on stats need to remember the game is played by humans and like us they have frailties. That is not to excuse long term poor performance, but to understand injuries and mental anguish may be involved in any short term issues.

[Bellhorn04]

If they don't win the division, they will not win the WC game IMO.

 

A WC game is close to a coin flip.

[Bellhorn04]

That's why staying under this year was so important. Doing so, actually allows us more flex not just for 2022, but '23 and '24, too.

 

As has been mentioned many times, 2022 will be under a new CBA, so maybe we shouldn't be getting too excited about any of this.

[moonslav59]

We are far into the 162 game season with players first going through Spring training. Many in baseball talk about it as a grind and well they should. Players are human after all and the physiological and psychological effects of the long term season gets to them

The physical aspects of having trained hard, eaten appropriately and avoided dissolution put these players in good stead to face the season. Over the long term, with all the travel and physical exertion, it must be hard for them to remain strict and dedicated. One thinks of great players like Ruth and Mantle who were anything but strict and perhaps shortened their careers or lessened their performance. Whatever, all of the games stress joints, ligaments, muscles and bones. Older players have had accumulated injuries to deal with and players in tough positions like catching get beat up and tired. Pitchers are also more subject to wear and tear. Cora’s approach is to try to rest players and to send them to the IL to recover from nagging injuries. That is not easy to do with the very thin bench that we have now in August. I also wonder if there is behind the scenes pressure to rid guys of some bad habit like drinking to excess or putting on extra pounds. I notice Rafi appears to chew tobacco, which release toxins and may affect him long terms and should be encouraged to stop.

The psychological effects are hard to pin down but I notice a number of Olympic athletes speak of their struggles with the pressure associated with expectations placed on them. It can’t be that different for ball players who are subjected to the pressure year-round. Players get bad press when they don’t perform and it must be hard to sluff off. Perhaps the best bulwark for them is being part of a team and the support that provides. The team includes the players, coaches, manager and owners, so when it doesn’t appear they have a common goal, that message might have a negative impact on an individual’s mindset. I am thinking of the trade deadline as an example.

Fans who focus on stats need to remember the game is played by humans and like us they have frailties. That is not to excuse long term poor performance, but to understand injuries and mental anguish may be involved in any short term issues.

 

Great post, oldtimer. Very nice.

 

Many of us fans who do focus on stats also understand the human element and all many of its nuances as much as anyone else, if not more so, to some, especially those who played the game a lot.

 

In a game of millimeters, it's easy to understand how just one tiny thing going wrong, mental, emotional or physical, can upset the whole apple cart.

[notin]

A WC game is close to a coin flip.

 

The real negative factor in the WC game is it hampers the ability of a team to set up their rotation for a playoff series.

 

So while a WC game is certifiably winnable, it does make the following series more difficult…

[moonslav59]

As has been mentioned many times, 2022 will be under a new CBA, so maybe we shouldn't be getting too excited about any of this.

 

I'm not excited about it, but I do think GMs are working on the assumption that the lux tax or something similar will continue in the next CBA-perhaps an even worse structure for the higher spending teams- like the Sox.

 

Plus, this was just not the year to go for broke.

[Bellhorn04]

The real negative factor in the WC game is it hampers the ability of a team to set up their rotation for a playoff series.

 

So while a WC game is certifiably winnable, it does make the following series more difficult…

 

Now I'm curious how WC winners have done in the first game of the LDS. You'd think the disadvantage would really show up there.

[notin]

Great post, oldtimer. Very nice.

 

Many of us fans who do focus on stats also understand the human element and all many of its nuances as much as anyone else, if not more so, to some, especially those who played the game a lot.

 

In a game of millimeters, it's easy to understand how just one tiny thing going wrong, mental, emotional or physical, can upset the whole apple cart.

 

It’sa good post, but the conclusion shouldn’t be that stats ignore the human element. Stats are just recorded history, nota measure of ability. And they should include the ups and downs of a season. What this post does is give some good reasons for why those ups and downs exist…

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not excited about it, but I do think GMs are working on the assumption that the lux tax or something similar will continue in the next CBA-perhaps an even worse structure for the higher spending teams- like the Sox.

 

Plus, this was just not the year to go for broke.

 

I agree it was no year to go for broke. But I wouldn't necessarily call going a few mill over the first threshold going for broke.

[Nick]

a) I don't see why this methodology for rating offenses is better than things like runs scored per game.

The starting pitching may look a whole lot better if Sale and E-Rod pitch up to their capabilities.

c) I think this team is capable of making it to the ALCS. On paper, we might get smoked once we get there, but then you have your crapshoot factors too.

 

Can you tell me what positions I'm way off on?

 

I had a talented sophomore one year with tons of potential. But as looked at other players in our competitive area, my player ranked close to the bottom. Now the player turned out to be D1 player eventually but my assumption was correct. We had too much to overcome at an important position manned by a sophomore.

 

Again, tell me where I'm off?

 

You talk about Sale and E Rod. But can't the Yankees make the same argument?

[notin]

Now I'm curious how WC winners have done in the first game of the LDS. You'd think the disadvantage would really show up there.

 

 

Without looking solely at first games, wild card winners are 7-9 in the following series to date (discounting the entirely different 2020 postseason). Better than I would have guessed.

 

Two of them (2014 Giants and 2019 Nationals) did go on to win the World Series…

[moonslav59]

I agree it was no year to go for broke. But I wouldn't necessarily call going a few mill over the first threshold going for broke.

 

True, but the affect on following years might be bigger than we imagine under a new CBA, so maybe the uncertainty played a role in that priority to stay under.

 

We got someone to play 1B, and he has an OPS over .900. That’s not peanuts.

 

We also boosted our pen depth.

 

With Sale and Houck looking good, the equation was who can we get better than Pivetta? The cost of upgrading Pivetta significantly would have cost a lot and put us over the tax line. Those two combined could be viewed as going for broke to some extent.

[Bellhorn04]

Can you tell me what positions I'm way off on?

 

I had a talented sophomore one year with tons of potential. But as looked at other players in our competitive area, my player ranked close to the bottom. Now the player turned out to be D1 player eventually but my assumption was correct. We had too much to overcome at an important position manned by a sophomore.

 

Again, tell me where I'm off?

 

No, but you didn't even provide comparisons to other teams.

 

Why wouldn't you just go right to simple team offense measures like run-scoring?

[moonslav59]

Can you tell me what positions I'm way off on?

 

I had a talented sophomore one year with tons of potential. But as looked at other players in our competitive area, my player ranked close to the bottom. Now the player turned out to be D1 player eventually but my assumption was correct. We had too much to overcome at an important position manned by a sophomore. We

 

Again, tell me where I'm off?

 

You talk about Sale and E Rod. But can't the Yankees make the same argument?

 

CF where Kike played the most and will continue to.

 

1B ignores the addition of Schwarber.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Without looking solely at first games, wild card winners are 7-9 in the following series to date (discounting the entirely different 2020 postseason). Better than I would have guessed.

 

Makes perfect sense to me. Kimmi is right that there's a huge crapshoot factor, but a slight disadvantage also shows up.

[notin]

No, but you didn't even provide comparisons to other teams.

 

Why wouldn't you just go right to simple team offense measures like run-scoring?

 

Or, position WAR.

 

The “A vs B vs C” scaling without any criteria is just too subjective. What were the grades even based on?

[dgalehouse]

I don't see that happening, but maybe Henry is fed up paying so much, especially when we were top 3 spenders in 2019 and 2020.

 

I also look more at year 2 and 3 of being over the tax line as the most important. The team will try to avoid year 3, or just be a tiny bit over, if need be.

 

That's why staying under this year was so important. Doing so, actually allows us more flex not just for 2022, but '23 and '24, too.

 

The Red Sox are ranked as the third most valuable MLB franchise. Worth 3.5 billion. Slightly behind the Dodgers. The Yankees are first. The ticket, concession and merchandise prices are borderline outrageous.

[dgalehouse]

Sox have acquired Delino DeShields from Texas. Seems there are a few loopholes in the trade deadline rule.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox are ranked as the third most valuable MLB franchise. Worth 3.5 billion. Slightly behind the Dodgers. The Yankees are first. The ticket, concession and merchandise prices are borderline outrageous.

 

Yep, part of the reason you have such a valuable franchise is that you have a lot of customers willing to pay those high prices.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox are ranked as the third most valuable MLB franchise. Worth 3.5 billion. Slightly behind the Dodgers. The Yankees are first. The ticket, concession and merchandise prices are borderline outrageous.

 

And Henry is filthy rich.

 

How do you think these guys got where they are?

[notin]

And Henry is filthy rich.

 

How do you think these guys got where they are?

 

Lotto?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It’sa good post, but the conclusion shouldn’t be that stats ignore the human element. Stats are just recorded history, nota measure of ability. And they should include the ups and downs of a season. What this post does is give some good reasons for why those ups and downs exist…

 

Good ballplayers don't forget how to play well as they age -- if anything, veterans learn to improve with experience. But injuries -- minor more than major -- the nagging ones that never fully heal, no matter how much rest, rehab, surgery and drugs one takes; those are the eventual career-enders that fans can't really see.

 

The preceding comes from a battered bastard, living in a broken-down shell of a body and trying to play competitively as long as I possibly could all these decades...

[mvp 78]

Lotto?

 

Grew up wealthy from his parent's tofu empire.

[a700hitter]

It wouldn’t be easy to run the Red Sox franchise into the ground, but Henry has experience at running businesses into the ground.