A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

It strikes me as pretty obvious that Kyle S. is going to decline his option. Why play for 11 million when he can get a contract in excess of 100 million on the free agent market?

 

I don't think his baseball card suggests the $100 million range.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I think the Red Sox traded for Kyle S. not only to help them win this year but because they have designs on signing him to a long term deal. He is like 4-5 years younger than JD Martinez. In the worst scenario, JD sticks around for one more season. In that scenario, the Red Sox could play Kyle S. at 1b next year and then move him to DH in 2023 when Casas is ready to play 1b and JD is gone.

 

Also, when we look at the free agent market for starting pitchers, it isn't easy finding starters that you would want to invest big money in. The Red Sox are loaded with starting pitching depth for next season without going to free agency. They need to keep the offense strong IMO, and Kyle S. will be one of the better (and younger) bats on the market.

[notin]

They're not a dime a dozen. Just ask Hosmer.

 

I texted him. He says they cost $144 mill over 8 years.

 

Not sure he’s my Go To authority on this any more…

[notin]

It strikes me as pretty obvious that Kyle S. is going to decline his option. Why play for 11 million when he can get a contract in excess of 100 million on the free agent market?

 

 

He got 1 year $10mill on the FA market after being non-tendered. No one is offering him $100 mill. Not even at gunpoint…

[mvp 78]

I don't think his baseball card suggests the $100 million range.

 

There's just no way...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Kyle S. isn't a two way player and that will work against him. Still, he is going to decline his option, why accept 11 mil for one year when he can get a multi year deal worth more per year? At the minimum, he should be able to get 15 million per year over 4 years, no?

 

But I would expect the bidding to go higher. True, over 100 million seems like too much especially at a time when teams covet two way players.

 

People think that JD can get 3 years at 45 million. Kyle S. will have more suitors, he is a younger player by 4-5 years and that matters.

Edited August 2, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[notin]

Kyle S. isn't a two way player and that will work against him. Still, he is going to decline his option, why accept 11 mil for one year when he can get a multi year deal worth more per year? At the minimum, he should be able to get 15 million per year over 4 years, no?

.

 

No.

[harmony]

Kyle S. isn't a two way player and that will work against him. Still, he is going to decline his option, why accept 11 mil for one year when he can get a multi year deal worth more per year? At the minimum, he should be able to get 15 million per year over 4 years, no?

 

But I would expect the bidding to go higher. True, over 100 million seems like too much especially at a time when teams covet two way players.

 

People think that JD can get 3 years at 45 million. Kyle S. will have more suitors, he is a younger player by 4-5 years and that matters.

Eight months ago today the Chicago Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber instead of entering arbitration with his projected 2021 salary in the $7 million to $9.3 million range.

 

Has Schwarber's value changed much after just 72 games this season?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Eight months ago today the Chicago Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber instead of entering arbitration with his projected 2021 salary in the $7 million to $9.3 million range.

 

Has Schwarber's value changed much after just 72 games this season?

 

A little: https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nationals-kyle-schwarber-home-runs-stats-records

 

If he comes back and hits another 16 homers in 18 games, and leads the Sox to the promising land, some team will want to pay him to do the same for them...

[Hugh2]

Eight months ago today the Chicago Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber instead of entering arbitration with his projected 2021 salary in the $7 million to $9.3 million range.

 

Has Schwarber's value changed much after just 72 games this season?

 

I think the question is what value is he to this team replacing Dalbec going down the stretch? A lot more than Bobby D.

[dgalehouse]

An aggressive reporter interviewed Sox chief medical officer, Dr. Vinnie Boombatz as to the status of Sale and Schwarber. Reporter: " Dr., when can we expect Chris Sale back and will he be 100% ? ". Dr. Boombatz: " Well , Tommy John surgery can be tricky , so it's kind of hard to say for sure." Reporter: " Okay, thanks. How about Kyle Schwarber? ". Dr. Boombatz: " Well , he is coming back from a hamstring injury. Those can be kind of tricky. So, it's kind of hard to say for sure." Reporter: " Thank you for your expert analysis, Doctor." Dr. Boombatz: " Any time. Always glad to help."

[moonslav59]

I thought I heard somewhere the team had the first option and if they did not exercise it then Schwarber could accept a certain amount over the $3M buyout.

 

If I’m wrong, I bet we extend him.

[mvp 78]

An aggressive reporter interviewed Sox chief medical officer, Dr. Vinnie Boombatz as to the status of Sale and Schwarber. Reporter: " Dr., when can we expect Chris Sale back and will he be 100% ? ". Dr. Boombatz: " Well , Tommy John surgery can be tricky , so it's kind of hard to say for sure." Reporter: " Okay, thanks. How about Kyle Schwarber? ". Dr. Boombatz: " Well , he is coming back from a hamstring injury. Those can be kind of tricky. So, it's kind of hard to say for sure." Reporter: " Thank you for your expert analysis, Doctor." Dr. Boombatz: " Any time. Always glad to help."

 

The head of the medical staff is Dr Larry Ronan though?

[Maxbialystock]

All this talk of Schwarber surprises me because right now he seems like a bad fit: he can't play even though the Sox badly need his bat right now; he's an outfielder on a team that needs a first baseman who can hit; he's not a starting pitcher, which is far and away the Sox biggest need right now.

 

Indeed, the one thing he seems best suited for is representational. He represents an intent to kind of, sort of, maybe improve the 2021 Sox.

[mvp 78]

They're moving Schwarber to 2b.

[notin]

They're moving Schwarber to 2b.

 

But only on days he doesn’t pitch…

[mvp 78]

But only on days he doesn’t pitch…

 

And he'll be the primary backup for Vaz too.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If JD can get 3 years, 45 million, Kyle S. will get more than that. Kyle S. is 4-5 years younger. Both players are DH types, Kyle S. isn't a good LF and he will probably suck at 1b too, but he has an exceptional bat and those 4-5 years makes a big difference in the eyes of general managers. JD is reaching an age at which players typically decline, whereas Kyle S. has some prime years left. JD Martinez can't field either, they have that in common.

 

I would be shocked if the Red Sox don't extend Kyle S. I think they traded for him knowing he wouldn't be a two month rental but would be a major offensive contributor over the next several seasons. They will need the money to extend him, but they should have the resources for that. I guess it gets a little trickier if JD doesn't opt out, as that would add 20 million to the payroll next season, and another DH, but I hope they extend Kyle S. no matter what. They need his bat over the next few seasons and Fenway Park might augment his already impressive offensive numbers.

 

True to the overall plan, I think the Kyle S. acquisition was more about the Red Sox future than this season. He isn't a rental.

[mvp 78]

If JD can get 3 years, 45 million, Kyle S. will get more than that. Kyle S. is 4-5 years younger. Both players are DH types, Kyle S. isn't a good LF and he will probably suck at 1b too, but he has an exceptional bat and those 4-5 years makes a big difference in the eyes of general managers. JD is reaching an age at which players typically decline, whereas Kyle S. has some prime years left. JD Martinez can't field either, they have that in common.

 

I would be shocked if the Red Sox don't extend Kyle S. I think they traded for him knowing he wouldn't be a two month rental but would be a major offensive contributor over the next several seasons. They will need the money to extend him, but they should have the resources for that. I guess it gets a little trickier if JD doesn't opt out, as that would add 20 million to the payroll next season, and another DH, but I hope they extend Kyle S. no matter what. They need his bat over the next few seasons and Fenway Park might augment his already impressive offensive numbers.

 

True to the overall plan, I think the Kyle S. acquisition was more about the Red Sox future than this season. He isn't a rental.

 

Do you think JD is opting out this offseason?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I don't know, it could go either way at this point. If he finishes strong, that increases the chances that he opts out. If he continues to slump, teams will be concerned about signing him beyond a one year contract. In that scenario, I could see JD staying with the Red Sox and collecting his 20 mil. No one will pay him 20 mil annually anymore and so it is a payday he might not turn down.

[notin]

And he'll be the primary backup for Vaz too.

 

Actually he did come up as a catcher. Not a good catcher, but a catcher nonetheless. He would certainly be the emergency catcher

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Actually he did come up as a catcher. Not a good catcher, but a catcher nonetheless. He would certainly be the emergency catcher

 

Schwarber was a finalist for the Johnny Bench Award that goes to the best catcher in college. He must have been competent, unless they base the award entirely on offense (which wouldn't make sense, since Bench revolutionized the position defensively). Maybe it was like MLB.com always picking Gary Sanchez as the AL All-Star backstop.

[notin]

Schwarber was a finalist for the Johnny Bench Award that goes to the best catcher in college. He must have been competent, unless they base the award entirely on offense (which wouldn't make sense, since Bench revolutionized the position defensively). Maybe it was like MLB.com always picking Gary Sanchez as the AL All-Star backstop.

 

Bench was also one of the best offensive catchers in MLB history. Really, he still is.

 

And let’s face it - offense has always been the primary metric in awards, even defensive ones…

[harmony]

It strikes me as pretty obvious that Kyle S. is going to decline his option. Why play for 11 million when he can get a contract in excess of 100 million on the free agent market?

Shouldn't a year and two months of a $100 million player command a greater trade return than distant pitching prospect Aldo Ramirez?

 

As a free agent in January, Schwarber signed a contract that guaranteed him only $10 million for one year. Schwarber's 61-game hot streak this season has not upped the ante to $100 million.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bench was also one of the best offensive catchers in MLB history. Really, he still is.

 

And let’s face it - offense has always been the primary metric in awards, even defensive ones…

 

Voters are like judges in a pageant, pretending to listen intently to bikini-clad candidates' goals to bring peace to the world...

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

But they have JD hopefully opting out. Kyle S. could be the Red Sox's DH as early as next season and into future seasons. I think they need his bat going forward.

 

So the theory is JD's bat has slowed since April? I don't know what's going on with him but I'm not read to throw dirt on him just yet.

[Bellhorn04]

So the theory is JD's bat has slowed since April? I don't know what's going on with him but I'm not read to throw dirt on him just yet.

 

If you want theories, this is the place!

[notin]

So the theory is JD's bat has slowed since April? I don't know what's going on with him but I'm not read to throw dirt on him just yet.

 

JD Martinez has an OPS+ of 142 with the Boston Red Sox, and that team should do everything possible to replace his production with the career OPS+ of 117 of Kyle Schwarber (whose bat might get too much praise considering he has 0 PA for the Sox to date).

 

After all, Schwarber is younger and still manages to get hurt more often than Martinez. And might be more expensive, too. It’s the Tri-Fecta!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With posts about JD's slump, and often falling behind in counts 0-2, I looked up 2021 splits. Here are batting averages of each Red Sox hitter in 0-2 counts (at bats in parenthesis):

 

Kike .306 (36), JD .256 (39), X .229 (48), Devers .225 (40), Renfroe .217 (46), Verdugo .209 (43)... Vaz .184 (38), Dalbec .158 (38), Santana .167, Chavis .143, Franchy .067, Arroyo .056, Marwin .037, Duran .000 (9 ABs).

 

Coming soon? Schwarber .188 (16).

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

With posts about JD's slump, and often falling behind in counts 0-2, I looked up 2021 splits. Here are batting averages of each Red Sox hitter in 0-2 counts (at bats in parenthesis):

 

Kike .306 (36), JD .256 (39), X .229 (48), Devers .225 (40), Renfroe .217 (46), Verdugo .209 (43)... Vaz .184 (38), Dalbec .158 (38), Santana .167, Chavis .143, Franchy .067, Arroyo .056, Marwin .037, Duran .000 (9 ABs).

 

Coming soon? Schwarber .188 (16).

 

 

I noticed this with Devers too, he takes a first strike on a lot of at bats. But the JD slump is so perplexing, and again I believe it's a slump as players rarely fall off the cliff in mid-season. That shot he hit to left center against the Rays I was sure was out, I mean it sounded like a home run but was caught at the track.