A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[iortiz]

So now you want to join the Porcello WARs? You also have to look at his fWAR, which is 50% higher.

 

But the chart is different.

 

His career fWAR ranks where fangraphs calls you Solid Player. This pedigree is the 5th quality level out of 7 levels in that chart.

 

To me is something between average and below average.

Edited July 27, 2021 by iortiz

[Kimmi]

mmm in large samples it is pretty decent. As dga said the flaws in ERA should tend to balance out over a long career. You can't be unlucky/lucky or whatever for long period of time.

 

All-in-all Very Good Pitchers hold very good ERAs most of the times.

 

Which stat do you like to rate pitchers? WAR? it has its issues too. RPE? they have their issues too.

 

There's not single perfect stat.

 

I would bet you that most of those ver good pitchers you bring based on whatever stat you like hold very good ERAs.

 

I'm not saying you are, but people in baseball sometimes try to complicate things a bit to sound smarter. Stats are great but they will never tell you whole story with 100% of accuracy.

 

I agreed with Denny several posts ago that over a career, a pitcher with a very good ERA is probably a very good pitcher. I don't think that is as true for a pitcher with lower ERA.

 

I agree that there is no perfect stat. The best approach is to look at as many stats as possible. That said, if I had to try to assess a pitcher using one stat alone, it would not be ERA.

[Kimmi]

How about WAR? Isn't it supposed to take into account all manner of pitching stats? Over 12 seasons as a starter, 2009-2020, Porcello's cumulative WAR was 20.1 and average WAR 1.675, which seems to me to be a tad on the low side. John Lackey, for example, pitched 15 seasons with cumulative WAR of 38.1 and an average of 2.54. His highest salary was $16M vs. Porcello's five years at $21M.

 

I would use WAR to assess a pitcher before I would use ERA alone.

[Kimmi]

What the eff is fWAR?

 

LOL Max. This is the Post of the Day!

[iortiz]

I agreed with Denny several posts ago that over a career, a pitcher with a very good ERA is probably a very good pitcher. I don't think that is as true for a pitcher with lower ERA.

 

I agree that there is no perfect stat. The best approach is to look at as many stats as possible. That said, if I had to try to assess a pitcher using one stat alone, it would not be ERA.

 

Well, I just need to look at career ERAs to figure out whether a pitcher was good or not. Most of the times I think ERA will tell me the true. That's kind of my point.

 

Said that, yes, using and contrast several stats help you to understand bit more specially in samples which are not large.

[Maxbialystock]

About Porcello (yes, again). I was no fan throughout his five years with the Sox and found it painful to watch him pitch.

 

That said, in his five years with the Sox he started an average of 32 games per year and averaged 192 innings per year, which means 6 innings per start, 32 starts per year. That's Kimmi's big point. George Will wrote at book about MLB entitled Men At Work, and to me Porcello fits that perfectly. For six months a year and over five years, every 5th day he brought his lunch pail and worked his buns off. In the John Henry era, I think Jon Lester is the only other Sox pitcher to do that, except he did it for six seasons and for more innings and with better results.

 

Like Lester in 2013 (a WS win season), Porcello in 2018 (also a WS win season) led the Sox in innings and wins even though Price and Sale were the stars of the 2018 team.

Edited July 27, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

But the chart is different.

 

His career fWAR ranks where fangraphs calls you Solid Player. This pedigree is the 5th quality level out of 7 levels in that chart.

 

They politely left one out, though:

 

-1 - 0 = Bum

 

[iortiz]

I would use WAR to assess a pitcher before I would use ERA alone.

 

Where does fangraphs ranks Orel Hershiser's career fWAR?

[iortiz]

They politely left one out, though:

 

-1 - 0 = Bum

 

 

 

LOL! yeah!

[mvp 78]

If you have won a CY award, you're automatically considered a very good pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

If you have won a CY award, you're automatically considered a very good pitcher.

 

Mark Davis for you on line 2!

[iortiz]

If you have won a CY award, you're automatically considered a very good pitcher.

 

In that year, yes. Not necessary in your career.

[mvp 78]

In that year, yes. Not necessary in your career.

 

In my career, I've rarely been great. I'd say mediocre at best. However, I am an all time great poster and that's what matters on here.

[iortiz]

In my career, I've rarely been great. I'd say mediocre at best. However, I am an all time great poster and that's what matters on here.

 

LOL I meant in pitcher's career.

 

Well played, MVP.

 

As I said, we have had our issues in the past but I think we have moved on. I guess we have probably disagreed more than agreed but I respect you.

 

Yes, you are a great poster.

[mvp 78]

Mark Davis for you on line 2!

 

MLB debut at 19. He was traded for HOFer Joe Morgan.

[mvp 78]

LOL I meant in pitcher's career.

 

Well played, MVP.

 

As I said, we have had our issues in the past but I think we have moved on. I guess we have probably disagreed more than agreed but I respect you.

 

Yes, you are a great poster.

 

I would also agree that I'm a better poster than Porcello is a pitcher.

[iortiz]

I would also agree that I'm a better poster than Porcello is a pitcher.

 

And is not even close lol

[Nick]

This is a blow for the draft class this year if it does come to fruition. I understand the logic here from the Red Sox to call Fabian’s bluff here and dare him to go back to school, basically requiring him to be a no-doubt first rounder next year to out-earn what is likely an offer somewhere in the $2.5 million range. And to be clear, they have until August 1 to come to a deal. This report from Gammons is not officially closing the door on a deal being had.

 

So, difference of $500K ($3M vs $2.5M).....top single tax bracket is 37%. So now you're talking about $315K. That's before agent gets piece of that pie. He's risking a lot. Not smart thing to do in my mind.

[a700hitter]

If you have won a CY award, you're automatically considered a very good pitcher.

Mike McCormick to you.

[mvp 78]

Mike McCormick to you.

 

Has a wonderful seasoning empire.

[Nick]

Things that make you go huh?

 

Chicago White Sox are 21-28 vs teams with .500+ record. They have given up league best 383 runs and have the second best run differential of +114. they're 35-17 at home.

 

Are they just beating up on bad teams?

[moonslav59]

I will make a friendly wager they don't trade Richards or Perez.

 

Why would I bet? I said I don’t think it happens.

[moonslav59]

It is indeed a nice 8, which was my point. That said, it does bug me a little to realize that Cora is happy moving Hernandez and his WAR of 3.3 from position to position so Duran and others can have a shot at becoming the 9th.

 

So, even though I think 8 is enough, I agree it probably makes sense to acquire a first baseman who can hit and field. It continues to astound me that Dalbec has struggled at first base, where a zillion other Sox players, this year and in years past, have shifted into and played with ease.

 

It’s no secret I’ve wanted Kike in CF since we signed him. Almost everyone thought 2B was better.

 

That being said, I want Duran playing, so Kike at 2B is fine for the betterment of the team. Playing 1B seems extreme but I want Arroyo playing, too.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I see the endless Porcello debate continues. I prefer to discuss players who are on the team. How about the turnaround for Valdez? Before he went down he drove me crazy, for a time he was throwing one pitch nearly every time. It looked like a slider but I think they called it a change, breaking down and away to right handed pitchers at 86 MPH. Now he is mixing in more fastballs and it's helping. I always thought that was Barnes' problem in the past, he relied too much on the curve when he had a high 90's fastball. He seems to throw that more now but I'm sure someone will come up with the stat that disputes this. LOL.

[mvp 78]

I see the endless Porcello debate continues. I prefer to discuss players who are on the team. How about the turnaround for Valdez? Before he went down he drove me crazy' date=' for a time he was throwing one pitch nearly every time. It looked like a slider but I think they called it a change, breaking down and away to right handed pitchers at 86 MPH. Now he is mixing in more fastballs and it's helping. I always thought that was Barnes' problem in the past, he relied too much on the curve when he had a high 90's fastball. He seems to throw that more now but I'm sure someone will come up with the stat that disputes this. LOL.[/quote']

 

I'm definitely pulling for Valdez. He's got a very quirky arsenal and different is good.

[Bellhorn04]

I see the endless Porcello debate continues. I prefer to discuss players who are on the team. How about the turnaround for Valdez? Before he went down he drove me crazy' date=' for a time he was throwing one pitch nearly every time. It looked like a slider but I think they called it a change, breaking down and away to right handed pitchers at 86 MPH. Now he is mixing in more fastballs and it's helping. I always thought that was Barnes' problem in the past, he relied too much on the curve when he had a high 90's fastball. He seems to throw that more now but I'm sure someone will come up with the stat that disputes this. LOL.[/quote']

 

Valdez has been instrumental in 2 wins in 4 days.

 

All I know is that Bloom really knows pitching.

[mvp 78]

Valdez has been instrumental in 2 wins in 4 days.

 

All I know is that Bloom really knows pitching.

 

Thank you to the Mariners for DFA'ing him.

[Nick]

I see the endless Porcello debate continues. I prefer to discuss players who are on the team. How about the turnaround for Valdez? Before he went down he drove me crazy' date=' for a time he was throwing one pitch nearly every time. It looked like a slider but I think they called it a change, breaking down and away to right handed pitchers at 86 MPH. Now he is mixing in more fastballs and it's helping. I always thought that was Barnes' problem in the past, he relied too much on the curve when he had a high 90's fastball. He seems to throw that more now but I'm sure someone will come up with the stat that disputes this. LOL.[/quote']

 

It kind of reminds me of "El Generalisimo Francisco Franco is still DEAD".

[Nick]

This is a blow for the draft class this year if it does come to fruition. I understand the logic here from the Red Sox to call Fabian’s bluff here and dare him to go back to school, basically requiring him to be a no-doubt first rounder next year to out-earn what is likely an offer somewhere in the $2.5 million range. And to be clear, they have until August 1 to come to a deal. This report from Gammons is not officially closing the door on a deal being had.

 

So, difference of $500K ($3M vs $2.5M).....top single tax bracket is 37%. So now you're talking about $315K. That's before agent gets piece of that pie. He's risking a lot. Not smart thing to do in my mind.

 

His slot value is $1,856,000. Sox offered $2.5M. He's asking $3M....

[oldtimer]

It’s no secret I’ve wanted Kike in CF since we signed him. Almost everyone thought 2B was better.

 

That being said, I want Duran playing, so Kike at 2B is fine for the betterment of the team. Playing 1B seems extreme but I want Arroyo playing, too.

 

I think there is room for all three to play reasonable minutes. With Duran sitting against lefties and Cora's propensity to rest players like Bogie, Renfroe and Verdugo. Kike can be used as an outfield sub and Arroyo as an infield sub. I still think the Sox are looking for a first baseman but I wouldn't think Rizzo fits.