A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Well this magical season keeps on rolling along. I never understood why a manager pulls a pitcher after a no-no so quickly, to go with that reliever when he had Britton and Green on rest was a gift. Not sure why the infield was not in on the tying ground out. Boone is killing the Yankees, that loss had to be a gut punch to them.

 

Please put Whitlock in the spot Ottavino has occupied for most of the season. PLEASE.

[Bellhorn04]

Well this magical season keeps on rolling along. I never understood why a manager pulls a pitcher after a no-no so quickly' date=' to go with that reliever when he had Britton and Green on rest was a gift. [b']Not sure why the infield was not in on the tying ground out.[/b] Boone is killing the Yankees, that loss had to be a gut punch to them.

 

Can you detail this one please?

[notin]

Well this magical season keeps on rolling along. I never understood why a manager pulls a pitcher after a no-no so quickly, to go with that reliever when he had Britton and Green on rest was a gift. Not sure why the infield was not in on the tying ground out. Boone is killing the Yankees, that loss had to be a gut punch to them.

 

Please put Whitlock in the spot Ottavino has occupied for most of the season. PLEASE.

 

Ottvino had 2 bad outings on paper recently. But really, that loss to the Yankees he got beaten by two little pop ups that just found some dirt. In his previous 7 outings, he allowed 1 ER and had an OPS against of .536. and that OPSA was built on a .353 BABIP, which means he was pretty unlucky defensively and still managed to shut down the opposition. Whitlock has been terrific since the Braves kicked him around, but he's just as likely as Ottavino to get beaten by freakish pop-ups.

 

The bullpen is working. No need to mess with the roles just yet...

Edited July 26, 2021 by notin

[notin]

Well this magical season keeps on rolling along. I never understood why a manager pulls a pitcher after a no-no so quickly, to go with that reliever when he had Britton and Green on rest was a gift. Not sure why the infield was not in on the tying ground out. Boone is killing the Yankees, that loss had to be a gut punch to them.

 

Please put Whitlock in the spot Ottavino has occupied for most of the season. PLEASE.

 

The announcers on TBS were talking about German's pitch count for about 3 innings prior, and how the plan was for about 80 pitches, and that he was approaching his season high total of 99 It becase obvious that the only reason Boone was even leaving German in was because he was thrwing a no hitter.

 

Even if you question Boone's decision to pull him, which can certainly make sense in this case, at some point he did use relievers he has been relying on and they failed to hold a 4 run lead with only 6 outs to go. At some point, that's on the bullpen itself.

 

And I can't believe I'm defending Aaron Boone...

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Can you detail this one please?

 

The soft ground out by Plawecki to short that tied it in the 8th. If they were playing in a good chance to cut down the runner at the plate.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Ottvino had 2 bad outings on paper recently. But really, that loss to the Yankees he got beaten by two little pop ups that just found some dirt. In his previous 7 outings, he allowed 1 ER and had an OPS against of .536. and that OPSA was built on a .353 BABIP, which means he was pretty unlucky defensively and still managed to shut down the opposition. Whitlock has been terrific since the Braves kicked him around, but he's just as likely as Ottavino to get beaten by freakish pop-ups.

 

The bullpen is working. No need to mess with the roles just yet...

 

 

As I said in my first post here in years Ottavino never seems to have clean innings, there seems to be a lot of traffic after he comes in. IMO Whitlock would be a better option in the critical 8th inning.

[Kimmi]

It was just one game though. We're 9-3 against them, and we have 7 more to go. And tons against the Devil Rays. Still a wild ride ahead of us.

 

I know it was just one game. But I don't like giving the Yankees any hope of getting back into it. How different would things feel today if the Yankees had won last night's game and split the series with us? Thank goodness that didn't happen. They are not that far out from a wildcard slot.

 

For this upcoming Yankees/Rays series, it's still Go Rays!

[Kimmi]

I coach. I'm blessed with terrific athletes. Their movements are very efficient and effortless. People often correlate that to 'not working hard enough'.

 

Trot was a dirtdog. Drew was not. Big difference in perception of the two players.

[notin]

As I said in my first post here in years Ottavino never seems to have clean innings' date=' there seems to be a lot of traffic after he comes in. IMO Whitlock would be a better option in the critical 8th inning.[/quote']

 

Ottavino has had a lot more hit/walk free outings than Whitlock this year, but it's not really a fair comp since Whitlock often gets used for multiple innings and Ottavino never does.

 

Of course, hits are not always the fault of the pitcher, as we saw on Saturday with Ottavino. Now, if you want to argue he walks too many people, I agree. I can forgive those 3 walks in the rain-soaked nightmare field game against the Marinlins, but even then his 20 BBs in 40 IP is too high.

 

But fun Ottavino fact, which I hope is not a jinx - 0 HRs allowed this year. He's the only reliever in the Sox bullpen who can make that claim...

[Kimmi]

I didn’t say that. I said he was all-in-all a mediocre/average pitcher (a No. 4 in my book), BUT regarding his HR/FB rate, he certainly sucked and very hard.

 

If his HR/FB rate had been at least average (around 9%), he probably could have been a No 3 pitcher. But again, his command of his pitches, specially the sinker wasn’t good hence that awful career HR/FB.

 

The average HR/FB rate fluctuates from year to year, but it is typically about 10%. Also, HR/FB rate is not a repeatable skill. It's one of those mostly luck or random things. FB rate is a repeatable skill, but not HR/FB rate.

[Kimmi]

Over the long haul , ERA ,while not perfect, is still the definitive stat for a pitcher. The object for them is to not give up runs. You can play around with the multitude of other stats , analytics , etc. all you want , but ERA is still the bottom line. Show me a pitcher with a good career ERA and I will show you a good pitcher. This applies to Porcello or anyone else.

 

I cannot agree with you that ERA is the definitive stat for a pitcher. It is too flawed.

 

That said, I can agree with you that over the long haul, a pitcher with a good career ERA is probably a good pitcher. I don't think that statement is as true when you're talking about a pitcher with a not so good career ERA.

[Kimmi]

Red Sox Stats

@redsoxstats

·

11h

Over his last 8 starts Perez is averaging 3.2 IP with a 6.23 ERA and batters are hitting .362/.417/.608 off of him.

 

For the season the second time through a lineup opponents are hitting .326 with a .391 OBP.

 

His grip on a starting spot seems tenuous.

 

He may be the one replaced by Sale. Richards probably has slight edge in terms of having a better upside than Perez although both can suck equally.

 

Perez pitched very well in last night's game. Again, his inability to go deep in most games is an issue, but he will typically pitch well enough to keep the team in the game. Not saying that he has an edge over Richards, or vice versa, just that I wouldn't be so quick to write either one of them off.

[moonslav59]

I cannot agree with you that ERA is the definitive stat for a pitcher. It is too flawed.

 

That said, I can agree with you that over the long haul, a pitcher with a good career ERA is probably a good pitcher. I don't think that statement is as true when you're talking about a pitcher with a not so good career ERA.

 

ERA is highly flawed. ERA- and ERA+ try to fix some of the problems, but even they are highly flawed.

 

We are not saying the stat is meaningless or should not be a major factor in determining the value of any SP'er, but no stat should ever be used, by itself, to determine how good or bad anyone is or was.

 

The value of going 6 innings vs 3, 4, or 5 is enormous, too. There's a reason they call 6 IP and 3 ER (a 4.50 ERA) a quality start. It's the 6 IP not the 4.50 ERA that makes it quality.

 

Many of his other stats and metrics place him in the top 30 (a #1), 31-60 (a #2) or near the top of 61-90 (high #3). I'm not sure how this is viewed as mediocre. I can see calling a 4.40 ERA mediocre with no context added, but there is more to pitching than ERA.

[moonslav59]

Sox XBH Leaders

 

53 Devers

50 JD

44 Bogey

39 Kike

31 Renfroe

29 Verdugo

24 Dalbec

 

SB Leaders

8 Vaz

5 Bogey

5 Verdugo

3 Devers, Marwin, Santana

 

OBP

.374 Bogey

.373 JD

.356 Devers

.340 Verdugo

.323 Kike

.313 Renfroe

 

SLG

.580 Devers

.565 JD

.524 Bogey

.466 Kike

.455 Renfroe

.410 Verdugo

.397 Dalbec

 

 

[moonslav59]

Upcoming roster moves (beyond any trades):

 

It looks like Arroyo, Marwin & Santana might be out a while, so there's not much on the farm to bring up. Our 3 man bench is Plawecki, Chavis & Cordero. Theonly position players on the 40 man on the farm are:

 

Arauz

Wilson

Wong

(AA: Ro Hernandez, Potts, Rosario)

 

(We could add Munoz or Ockimey, but I doubt we do.)

 

It is likely we trade for a 1Bman or bench piece.

 

Pitching:

 

IL Sawamura, Andriese, Bazardo & Brasier

Rehab: Sale (Seabold)

 

Replace:

Workman

Rios

Valdez

(ERod to IL?)

 

I think Sawamura for Workman is easy, as is Sale for Rios. I think we'll DFA Andriese (out of options), unless someone goes on the IL(ERod?).

 

If we trade for a pitcher without trading away a pitcher, who do we demote or DFA?

 

[Nick]

http://https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/7/26/22594020/boston-red-sox-trade-rumors-carlos-santana-trade-target-kansas-city-royals

 

Red Sox Trade Target: Carlos Santana

 

The Royals first baseman could be the best option to shore up this desolate position for Boston.[/url][/size][/b]

 

What would Royals want?

Edited July 26, 2021 by Nick

[iortiz]

The average HR/FB rate fluctuates from year to year, but it is typically about 10%. Also, HR/FB rate is not a repeatable skill. It's one of those mostly luck or random things. FB rate is a repeatable skill, but not HR/FB rate.

 

In short samples, yes, it helps you to determine "luck" moving forward since HRs are fluke events by definition, BUT, in large samples, when your HR/FB is high as Porcello's, it tells you with 100% of certainty, you are a prone HR pitcher, and in this case due his poor command.

 

As BABIP and LOB, a pitcher can control this peripheral stat. How can you know? Large samples help you to figure out.

 

You can find career BABIP/LOB/ HR/FB rates significantly below/above the average, because some pitchers can induce/control (for good or bad) those stats.

 

This is FanGraphs HR/FB chart

 

Rating HR/FB

Excellent 5.0%

Great 7.0%

Above Average 8.5%

Average 9.5%

Below Average 10.5%

Poor 11.5%

Awful 13.0%

 

Porcello is at the bottom of the chart through 11 years. In his case this is not random/luck/fluke. He's been a prone HR pitcher.

[a700hitter]

There is a reason why no one has signed Purcell,....because he was a borderline bum in his last several years.

[mvp 78]

http://https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/7/26/22594020/boston-red-sox-trade-rumors-carlos-santana-trade-target-kansas-city-royals

 

Red Sox Trade Target: Carlos Santana

 

The Royals first baseman could be the best option to shore up this desolate position for Boston.[/url][/size][/b]

 

What would Royals want?

 

According to BTV, it would be a Jeisson Rosario type.

[iortiz]

I cannot agree with you that ERA is the definitive stat for a pitcher. It is too flawed.

 

That said, I can agree with you that over the long haul, a pitcher with a good career ERA is probably a good pitcher. I don't think that statement is as true when you're talking about a pitcher with a not so good career ERA.

 

It is flawed in short samples, yes, not that much in large. You can't be "unlucky" through 11 years.

 

There's no a single stat without flaws. None. OTOH IMO ERA still tells you all-in-all what kind of pitcher are you in large samples. Most very good pitchers have very good ERAs and bad pitchers bad ERAs. Plain and simple. For instance I can't remember Very Good Pitchers with Bad career ERAs.

 

Also for contact pitchers most run prevention estimators and even WAR (specially fangraph's) are even less accurate and unfair since most of them love Ks. K pitchers are not necessary better than contact pitchers. In fact, contact pitchers are often more economical and have better durability.

[moonslav59]

http://https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/7/26/22594020/boston-red-sox-trade-rumors-carlos-santana-trade-target-kansas-city-royals

 

Red Sox Trade Target: Carlos Santana

 

The Royals first baseman could be the best option to shore up this desolate position for Boston.[/url][/size][/b]

 

What would Royals want?

 

Too much.

[iortiz]

http://https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/7/26/22594020/boston-red-sox-trade-rumors-carlos-santana-trade-target-kansas-city-royals

 

Red Sox Trade Target: Carlos Santana

 

The Royals first baseman could be the best option to shore up this desolate position for Boston.[/url][/size][/b]

 

What would Royals want?

 

This is a guy I would make a considerable effort to land him.

[iortiz]

There is a reason why no one has signed Purcell,....because he was a borderline bum in his last several years.

 

 

In the last 6 years, he has only one very good year and he is still relatively "young".

[iortiz]

This is a guy I would make a considerable effort to land him.

 

Wonder whether a package around Dalbec would land Santana.

[Bellhorn04]

The soft ground out by Plawecki to short that tied it in the 8th. If they were playing in a good chance to cut down the runner at the plate.

 

One run lead, runners at seconds and third and no outs. If you play the infield in, you're also increasing the risk of a ground ball getting through and scoring two runs.

 

I get your argument, but I think there is an argument against it too.

[moonslav59]

Wonder whether a package around Dalbec would land Santana.

 

Maybe Dalbec for Santana & Barlow.

[Bellhorn04]

There is a reason why no one has signed Purcell,....because he was a borderline bum in his last several years.

 

Right, but:

-iortiz keeps quoting Porcello's Fangraphs data as if it's the most valid.

-Porcello pitched well in 2020 according to FanGraphs data.

[iortiz]

Maybe Dalbec for Santana & Barlow.

 

Not Sure whether Dalbec alone would land those 2 pieces. Barlow as far I remember has been very good.

[moonslav59]

Right, but:

-iortiz keeps quoting Porcello's Fangraphs data as if it's the most valid.

-Porcello pitched well in 2020 according to FanGraphs data.

 

"Well" to us is mediocre to him.

 

This argument is NOT about Porcello. It's about what some consider "good" and "mediocre."

[moonslav59]

Not Sure whether Dalbec alone would land those 2 pieces. Barlow as far I remember has been very good.

 

Dalbec has way more value than Santana.

 

I know it sounds whacked, but 2 month rentals don't have much value.

 

Yes, Barlow has a lot of value. I was just being sarcastic.

 

BTV accepts this trade:

 

Dalbec for Santana & Staumont