A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

His command has come and gone a bit too, never seems to happen in big games where he shows up. It seems that he’s fallen for some inconsistencies that’s a little unfair because Leiter has shown those too.

 

When on Rocker has been the most dominant pitcher in college. I wouldn’t call him a low ceiling high floor guy. His ceiling is as high as Leiters.

 

I'd be thrilled getting him at 4, and would feel like it is a safer pick than either HS SS.

 

My hopes are:

 

1. Leiter

2. Davis

3. Rocker

4. Jobe, but if my top 3 picks are gone, I'd be fine with a HS SS.

[Hugh2]

I feel the same, but examples can be found, even within the Sox history that show non college picks can be winners or are currently somewhat promising:

 

202: Lester -Bellarmine Prep

2007: Anthony Rizzo- Stoneman Douglass

2008: Christian Vazquez- PR Baseball Academy

2011: Mookie Betts- Overton HS TN

2012: Ty Buttrey- Providence HS NC

2014: Michael Kopech- Mt Pleasant HS TX

2018: Triston Casas- American Hertiage FL

2019: Matthew Lugo- Beltran Academy PR

2020: Nick Yorke- Archbishop Mitty CA, Blaze Jordan DeSoto MS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We can even narrow that down to high school hitters taken top 5.

 

2001: Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira

2002: BJ Upton

2003: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks

2005: BJ Upton

2006: Mike Moustakas

2008: Eric Hosmer

2010: Manny Machado

2011: bubba starling was a busy but what a draft. Look up 2011 first round. Wow.

2012: Carlos Correa, Bryan Buxton.

 

Going to stop there. Left out a few busts like Matt Bush, and Tim Beckham, but the results were clear.

 

If you’re picking top 5, even high school hitters are almost always productive mlbers.

 

Feel like going back and taking a look at Hs pitchers. HS pitching is probably the riskiest demograph but some interesting names in there.

 

Now I really like Davis, and the two Vanderbilt arms. But Mayer and Lawlar are top 5 draft prospects with 5 tool player potential. I won’t be mad if they’re picked.

[Nick]

We can even narrow that down to high school hitters taken top 5.

 

2001: Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira

2002: BJ Upton

2003: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks

2005: BJ Upton

2006: Mike Moustakas

2008: Eric Hosmer

2010: Manny Machado

2011: bubba starling was a busy but what a draft. Look up 2011 first round. Wow.

2012: Carlos Correa, Bryan Buxton.

 

Going to stop there. Left out a few busts like Matt Bush, and Tim Beckham, but the results were clear.

 

If you’re picking top 5, even high school hitters are almost always productive mlbers.

 

Feel like going back and taking a look at Hs pitchers. HS pitching is probably the riskiest demograph but some interesting names in there.

 

Now I really like Davis, and the two Vanderbilt arms. But Mayer and Lawlar are top 5 draft prospects with 5 tool player potential. I won’t be mad if they’re picked.

 

Yeah, I was thinking about high school pitchers. Sox do absolutely nothing with them the year they are drafted. They come back as a nineteen year old, not having pitched against anything other than high school hitters. Just seem like a long road.

 

I want someone that may reach the majors by 2024, not 2028.

[moonslav59]

We can even narrow that down to high school hitters taken top 5.

 

2001: Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira

2002: BJ Upton

2003: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks

2005: BJ Upton

2006: Mike Moustakas

2008: Eric Hosmer

2010: Manny Machado

2011: bubba starling was a busy but what a draft. Look up 2011 first round. Wow.

2012: Carlos Correa, Bryan Buxton.

 

Going to stop there. Left out a few busts like Matt Bush, and Tim Beckham, but the results were clear.

 

If you’re picking top 5, even high school hitters are almost always productive mlbers.

 

Feel like going back and taking a look at Hs pitchers. HS pitching is probably the riskiest demograph but some interesting names in there.

 

Now I really like Davis, and the two Vanderbilt arms. But Mayer and Lawlar are top 5 draft prospects with 5 tool player potential. I won’t be mad if they’re picked.

 

Well said.

[Larry Cook]

Yeah, I was thinking about high school pitchers. Sox do absolutely nothing with them the year they are drafted. They come back as a nineteen year old, not having pitched against anything other than high school hitters. Just seem like a long road.

 

I want someone that may reach the majors by 2024, not 2028.

 

And what if hang’em Chaim goes off script and reaches in the first round for a guy rated much lower than the top 5, so he can sign under slot?

[moonslav59]

And what if hang’em Chaim goes off script and reaches in the first round for a guy rated much lower than the top 5, so he can sign under slot?

 

I'll trust he knows what he's doing, but I will be highly skeptical and probably ready to pounce a few years down the road. Bllom started with the Rays in 2005, moved up in 2008 and became Director of Baseball Operations in 2011. He pretty much gained control in 2014, after Friedman left to LA.

 

It's hard to attribute this player or that player to Bloom or someone else, and most picks are consensus choices, but here are the Rays first picks since 2005 with the pick number in front:

 

8. Wade Twonsend

3. Evan Longoria

1. David Price

1. Tim Beckham

30. LeVon Washington

17. Josh Sale, 31. Justin O'Conner, 42. Drew Vettleson (2010)

24. Taylor Guerrieri, 31. Mikie Mahtook, 32.Jake Hager, 38. Brandon Martin, 41. Tyler Goeddel, 52. Blake Snell,, 56. Kes Carter, 59. Grayson Garvin, 60. James Harris (The famed 2011 draft where they had something like 11 of the top 80 picks and only chose one right: Snell.)

25. Richie Shaffer

21. Nick Ciuffo

29 Ryne Stanek (Still in the bigs)

20. Casey Gillaspie

13. Josh Lowe

4. Brendon McKay (2017- same pick we have, this year #4)

16. Mathew Liberatore

22. Greg Jones

24. Nick Bitsko

 

 

 

One thing about Bloom and his days with the Rays. Their draft picks were not their strong area, especially their first picks, but they may have chosen players not wanting big signing bonuses.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi is about our only starter who has not gotten shelled in 2 or more starts out of the pitchers last 3-4 starts.

 

Nate

5.1 IP 2 ER (7 H+BB)

5.1 IP 0 ER (5)

6.0 IP 1 ER (8)

5.2 IP 5 ER (14)

 

Perez has not been all that bad...

6.0 3 (6)

5.0 2 (5)

7.2 0 (7)

2.0 6 (9)

 

Garrett has not been horrible, but the H+BB numbers have been alarming

5.2 3 (10)

6.0 2 (8)

5.0 3 (10)

5.1 4 (13)

 

Nick (5 starts for him)

5.0 4 (9)

6.0 4 (11)

6.0 4 (9)

4.2 2 (10)

5.0 6 (8)

 

Eduardo (6 starts for him)

6.0 4 (8)

5.0 5 (12)

4.0 4 (8)

4.2 6 (9)

5.1 3 (8)

4.2 6 (9)

[moonslav59]

As bad as our pitching has been in the last 6 games, the 17 games before that, we let up these amount of ERs:

 

3

4

3

3

6

3

5

2

1

11

3

2

1

1

3

4

3

 

Only 3 games saw 5 or more runs allowed.

2 games 6 or more

1 game 7 or more

 

These last 6 games have seen all at 5 or more

5 at 7 or more

3 at 8 or more

[Hugh2]

I don’t think the Sox are reaching at #4, I believe they will take premium talent.

 

Maybe they got one of those guys for 200-400k under slot, but they’re not cutting a deal to reach for someone and to significantly under.

 

Obviously I don’t work in the Sox office to confirm that, but I’d be will to wager that still.

 

Also, premium HS talent doesn’t take 7 years to reach the majors. Usually it’s 1/2 that time. Also, just because someone isn’t automatically assigned to a level doesn’t mean they’re not working with the team at other sites. However, I’d be willing to bank that if they take high school talent early, you will see them in game action this year.

[Hugh2]

Yeah, I was thinking about high school pitchers. Sox do absolutely nothing with them the year they are drafted. They come back as a nineteen year old, not having pitched against anything other than high school hitters. Just seem like a long road.

 

I want someone that may reach the majors by 2024, not 2028.

 

I kind of addressed this point in my post above but I’d like to add to it.

 

It may be our right as fans to demand instant gratification, but the Sox organization has to think about building a sustainable product today and down the road. Sometimes that means developing talent for several years. Remember a farm system is meant to supplement the big league club, and sometimes that’s trading away those guys for the immediate gratification, like when we traded Moncada, Kopech, Basabe for Chris Sale. We traded 3 birds in Bush for one in hand. We went with the instant gratification (won a WS with Sale) and yet we’re not stuck still watching Kopech trying to stick in the majors.

 

I’m leaning Davis, I’d love a college talent who could reach the majors quick and would be happy with anyone from the Leiter/Rocker/Davis camp, but I think it’s perfectly justifiable going Lawlar/Mayer/House/Jobe.

[Hugh2]

Keep in mind, even a top college talent may be 2 years away from contributing

[Nick]

#4 pick hopefully doesn't come around too often. I look at this year's draft somewhat different than others.

[Bellhorn04]

In Peter Abraham's column on yesterday's thrashing, he finds it very suspicious that the collapse of the rotation coincided with the announcement about the sticky stuff crackdown. Lovely.

[notin]

We can even narrow that down to high school hitters taken top 5.

 

2001: Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira

2002: BJ Upton

2003: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks

2005: BJ Upton

2006: Mike Moustakas

2008: Eric Hosmer

2010: Manny Machado

2011: bubba starling was a busy but what a draft. Look up 2011 first round. Wow.

2012: Carlos Correa, Bryan Buxton.

 

Going to stop there. Left out a few busts like Matt Bush, and Tim Beckham, but the results were clear.

 

If you’re picking top 5, even high school hitters are almost always productive mlbers.

 

Feel like going back and taking a look at Hs pitchers. HS pitching is probably the riskiest demograph but some interesting names in there.

 

Now I really like Davis, and the two Vanderbilt arms. But Mayer and Lawlar are top 5 draft prospects with 5 tool player potential. I won’t be mad if they’re picked.

 

And one could add Bryce Harper to that list. While he did technically go to junior college, he did so by dropping out of high school after his sophomore year, getting his GED and then attending a JuCo, all for the sole purpose of getting drafted a year earlier, and therefore would probably be the youngest player on this list at the time of the draft.

 

Of course, I still wonder how many busts? Because the number of busts vs success stories determines your historical odds of success (which, on draft day, are meaningless)...

[notin]

In Peter Abraham's column on yesterday's thrashing, he finds it very suspicious that the collapse of the rotation coincided with the announcement about the sticky stuff crackdown. Lovely.

 

And yet no other team had such as issue, meaning what? The Sox are the only team to stop cheating?

[Hugh2]

In Peter Abraham's column on yesterday's thrashing, he finds it very suspicious that the collapse of the rotation coincided with the announcement about the sticky stuff crackdown. Lovely.

 

I did too, BUT I suspect they're not this bad either. Probably something inbetween.

 

If what we're being told is correct, this was rampant all over baseball so I suspect our offense should have an easier time as well. Maybe it's time to bring Franchy back up!!!!

 

Him and Dalbec might get more out of their raw power if they're making better contact.

[notin]

I did too, BUT I suspect they're not this bad either. Probably something inbetween.

 

If what we're being told is correct, this was rampant all over baseball so I suspect our offense should have an easier time as well. Maybe it's time to bring Franchy back up!!!!

 

Him and Dalbec might get more out of their raw power if they're making better contact.

 

There also may be something to the pitching “collapsing” coinciding with playing two of the best offenses in the league…

[Hugh2]

And one could add Bryce Harper to that list. While he did technically go to junior college, he did so by dropping out of high school after his sophomore year, getting his GED and then attending a JuCo, all for the sole purpose of getting drafted a year earlier, and therefore would probably be the youngest player on this list at the time of the draft.

 

Of course, I still wonder how many busts? Because the number of busts vs success stories determines your historical odds of success (which, on draft day, are meaningless)...

 

Two points. I actually thought about adding Bryce Harper! good catch. Although he's kind of in a league of his own age-wise he should be on that list too. There were not many busts on that list, I'm not looking at it now but I can think of three off the top of my head, I may have forgotten 1. It also depends on how you define bust. If making it to the majors and posting a positive war is considered worthy then there are actually very very few busts in the top 5. You're almost guaranteed to pick an MLBer, and I write this a week after Riley Pint retired from baseball.

[notin]

Two points. I actually thought about adding Bryce Harper! good catch. Although he's kind of in a league of his own age-wise he should be on that list too. There were not many busts on that list, I'm not looking at it now but I can think of three off the top of my head, I may have forgotten 1. It also depends on how you define bust. If making it to the majors and posting a positive war is considered worthy then there are actually very very few busts in the top 5. You're almost guaranteed to pick an MLBer, and I write this a week after Riley Pint retired from baseball.

 

I think we can easily agree Chris Lubanski and Josh Vitters were busts. What about Christian Colon?

[Hugh2]

I think we can easily agree Chris Lubanski and Josh Vitters were busts. What about Christian Colon?

 

I probably have a different definition of "bust" than most. I'd consider Colon more of an underwhelming pick.

[mvp 78]

In Peter Abraham's column on yesterday's thrashing, he finds it very suspicious that the collapse of the rotation coincided with the announcement about the sticky stuff crackdown. Lovely.

 

Typical.

 

I'm not surprised that guys like Perez and Pivetta have started to struggle.

[moonslav59]

I kind of addressed this point in my post above but I’d like to add to it.

 

It may be our right as fans to demand instant gratification, but the Sox organization has to think about building a sustainable product today and down the road. Sometimes that means developing talent for several years. Remember a farm system is meant to supplement the big league club, and sometimes that’s trading away those guys for the immediate gratification, like when we traded Moncada, Kopech, Basabe for Chris Sale. We traded 3 birds in Bush for one in hand. We went with the instant gratification (won a WS with Sale) and yet we’re not stuck still watching Kopech trying to stick in the majors.

 

I’m leaning Davis, I’d love a college talent who could reach the majors quick and would be happy with anyone from the Leiter/Rocker/Davis camp, but I think it’s perfectly justifiable going Lawlar/Mayer/House/Jobe.

 

Well said.

 

I don't ever remember being so excited and inquisitive about a MLB draft in my lifetime.

[mvp 78]

There's been no change in the spin rates of Sox pitchers since the crackdown. I don't think the lack of success is due to those issues.

[moonslav59]

Typical.

 

I'm not surprised that guys like Perez and Pivetta have started to struggle.

 

Perez has not been all that bad...

 

IP ER (H+BB)

6.0 3 (6)

5.0 2 (5)

7.2 0 (7)

2.0 6 (9)

 

One bad game out of his last 4.

 

Pivetta has fallen apart...

 

Nick (5 starts for him)

5.0 4 (9)

6.0 4 (11)

6.0 4 (9)

4.2 2 (10)

5.0 6 (8)

[moonslav59]

AL Team Leader Boards

 

Hitting + Defense

 

WAR

15.0 HOU

12.8 CWS

11.0 TBR

10.9 TOR

9.5 BOS

9.5 OAK

9.3 MN

7.5 LAA

6.4 NYY

(BOS is 8th in wRC+ at 102.)

 

Defense

UZR/150

7.9 TBR (This is how they win.)

5.7 CWS

5.5 BOS (Find this hard to believe)

4.8 TOR (This, too)

8. NYY -1.0

 

DRS

53 TBR (Spectacular number)

35 HOU

21 BOS (Again, hard to see how)

9. TOR -1

10. NYY -4

(Off- BOS is 8th/ Def 6th: hard to believe)

 

Batting

OPS

.789 HOU

.781 TOR

.751 CWS

.748 BOS

9. NYY .703

 

Pitching

WAR

11.5 CWS

10.0 NYY

8.1 BOS

7.8 TBR

7.1 OAK

10. HOU 4.5

14. TOR 3.0

 

ERA-

76 CWS

81 TBR

85 NYY

93 TOR

8. BOS 97

5.4 BAL

(BOS is 15th in WHIP at 1.41!)

 

SPing

WAR

8.3 CWS

7.2 NYY

6.0 BOS

5.9 OAK

5.3 TBR

4.8 LAA

4.8 HOU

13. TOR 2.2

(Our starters are 8th in ERA- at 98 & 13th in WHIP at 1.41)

 

RP'ing

WAR

3.2 CWS

2.8 NYY

2.4 TBR

2.2 SEA

2.1 BOS

9. TOR 0.8

15. HOU -0.3

 

(BOS is 12th in WHIP at 1.39)

[mvp 78]

Perez has not been all that bad...

 

IP ER (H+BB)

6.0 3 (6)

5.0 2 (5)

7.2 0 (7)

2.0 6 (9)

 

One bad game out of his last 4.

Pivetta has fallen apart...

 

Nick (5 starts for him)

5.0 4 (9)

6.0 4 (11)

6.0 4 (9)

4.2 2 (10)

5.0 6 (8)

 

No, Perez's very last game was 1.1 Innings, 5 ER. That makes 11 ER over his past 3.1 Innings. You skipped his most recent start in your tabulation.

[moonslav59]

According to just 2021 positional WAR rankings, here are our weakest to strongest positions:

 

Red= best of top 4 ALE teams

Blue= worst of top 4

 

15th 1B -0.6 (TOR 1, TBR 7, NYY 10)

10th RF +0,6 (TBR 1, TOR 3, NYY 7)

9th C +0.5 (TB 1, NYY 3, TOR 13)

8th LF +0.8 (TBR 2, TOR 5, NYY 13)

8th 2B +0.8 (TOR 1, NYY 5, TBR 9)

7th CF +1.4 (TBR 8, TOR 11, NYY 13)

3rd DH +1.9 (TBR 6, NYY 9, TOR 12)

3rd 3B +1.9 (TBR 4, NYY 8, TOR 11)

1st SS +3.2 (TOR 5, NYY 8, TBR 12)

 

[moonslav59]

No, Perez's very last game was 1.1 Innings, 5 ER. That makes 11 ER over his past 3.1 Innings. You skipped his most recent start in your tabulation.

 

Sorry, I copied and pasted from a previous post. It should have been:

 

IP ER (H+BB)

6.0 3 (6)

5.0 2 (5)

7.2 0 (7)

2.0 6 (9)

1.1 5 (7)

 

Yes, 2 of his last 5 starts (actually 2 of his last 10) have been horrific.

 

Those 2 starts make his ERA over the last 10 starts 4.13.

Last 6 starts: 5.13

 

His ERA in his previous 4 starts before the last 2? 1.82.

Last 2? 29.70!

 

[mvp 78]

Sorry, I copied and pasted from a previous post. It should have been:

 

IP ER (H+BB)

6.0 3 (6)

5.0 2 (5)

7.2 0 (7)

2.0 6 (9)

1.1 5 (7)

 

Yes, 2 of his last 5 starts (actually 2 of his last 10) have been horrific.

 

Those 2 starts make his ERA over the last 10 starts 4.13.

Last 6 starts: 5.13

 

His ERA in his previous 4 starts before the last 2? 1.82.

Last 2? 29.70!

 

 

History shows he's a 4.5+ ERA guy. The last two starts are just him regressing to his career norms. Does Pivetta have more regression to do as well? Harder to say because he doesn't have Perez's track record. Richards' overall numbers are relatively in line with last season. Hard to project him because of his lengthy injury history. Nate is keeping his HR/FB down from career norms, but I don't know if that can continue.

 

ERod may be the only guy in the rotation due some positive regression!

[jacksonianmarch]

You had to know Perez was going to do this. He is a #5 guy, has been a #5, always will be a #5. He is just making it easier for Sale to take his slot later in the year